PA is a big question mark. He might be able to eke out Kerry's numbers there.

In WI Obama leads McCain by 13 pts.

In WA Obama has 18 pt lead.

In MA Obama has a 23 pt lead.

Nate is predicting WI and PA could go Obama if his bounce continues.

Kerry barely won PA--and that was being married to Teresa Heinz Kerry, a pretty-much universally respected figure in PA since the days she was John Heinz's wife.

If war hero Kerry, married to a PA icon, squeaked out a win here, I don't know how Obama overcomes his 20 year membership to Rev. Wright's church and his "bitter-cling" remarks to defeat  McCain. It's telling that Obama did NOT win Allegheny County in the primary--Pittsburgh and suburbs.

The Obama guys can talk 50-state strategy all they like but if they lose Ohio they're in the deep yogurt. They're doing none too well in Wisconsin and Michigan, too, although maybe the Wisconsin polling data used for the map is an outlier. I also think the GOP won't bother using McCain to shore up the Deep South base -- they'll use more reassuring surrogates and anti-Obama propaganda there, and throw in some Navy photo ops of McCain in Tidewater Virginia at Newport News Shipbuilding. It worked for them in 1988, and it should be enough this time around.

It would be dumb for McCain to waste money advertising on DC television when the DC media gives him so much free favorable TV. If you keep thinking McCain is Bush, you're making a big mistake -- he still has favorable perceptions running for him even if the reality of his positions is very different. After all, that was just as true in 2000.

Although I wouldn't begin to suggest that I understand the complexities of Missouri politics, the rest of the map starkly tells me that the general election is going to be fought over a lot of the people who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries. I think it's great if we can get Colorado trending blue, but not at the expense of losing the heart of Democratic Electoral College majorities -- New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois, with Missouri solidly in play.

After seeing Michigan tip towards Obama in the latest poll, I look forward to seeing the long term effect of no revote in Florida in their next poll. I suspect the backlash in Florida may be a bit stronger than in Michigan and an Obama/Hillary poll in Florida could be quite helpful to see if that combination puts Florida back in play.

McCain has been given a free pass for the past 3 months while Obama was engaged in a tough fight with Hillary.  Lots of negative stuff came out about Obama.  McCain spent most of his time chatting with the media and going to fund raising dinners.

Right now McCain needs to be winning.   The country is swinging towards the Democrats.  That is the momentum.  And barring a massive catastrophe or a major scandal against Obama, there isn't much McCain can do about this.  

Still, I suppose Obama could win by a decisive margin (a landslide in today's parlance-- though certainly nothing like '64 or '72).

MO - ?
Sorry, I don't know that region.

Interesting.  I'll have to keep an eye on regional Rust Belt news to see what happens.  OH & MI have been hit hard by the mortgage mess.  All three have job/economy problems, not just a "downturn" but long term and getting worse.  

...survey taken immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign, Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 13-percentage point margin in the Badger state.

...It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Consistent with evidence from other national surveys, the study paints a picture of a hostile political environment in the swing state of Wisconsin for Republicans in 2008. Eight in 10 Wisconsin voters think the country is going in the wrong direction, President George W. Bush has a favorability rating of only 30 percent, 66 percent believe that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting, and the top two issue concerns are the economy and getting U.S. soldiers out of Iraq.

...Goldstein points out, "In both 2000 and 2004, party attachments in the state were virtually identical with equal numbers of voters identifying with the Democrats and the GOP. One of the striking results in this poll and consistent with other survey work I have done in the state, the Democrats now enjoy a major advantage in party identification." In the study, 38 percent of probable voters identified with the Democrats and 24 percent with Republicans.

Obama has very strong favorable ratings with 64 percent of Wisconsin probable voters saying they have a favorable opinion and 32 percent having an unfavorable opinion. ...Obama is seen as the candidate to bring about change (70 percent to McCain's 42 percent) while McCain is seen as the experienced candidate (84 percent to Obama's 43 percent). Still, as the evidence shows, McCain faces a stiff headwind in Wisconsin

... Among independents, Obama holds a nine-point lead, 46 percent to 37 percent for McCain with 17 percent undecided.

...Despite widespread speculation about lingering divisions within both parties, there is little evidence of it in the poll. Democrats with favorable views of Hillary Clinton were as favorable towards Obama, and as likely to vote for him, as were those less supportive of Clinton.

I expect to see a larger margin for Obama once new polls are released for PA and OH, probably in the range of 6-10 points in each state.