Popular Vote Total After Puerto Rico
The number I care about is the popular vote total after Puerto Rico. If Obama hasn't reached 2,118 pledged delegates when the votes are counted tonight, that number should be as important to superdelegates as the pledged delegate total. With Obama ahead in one and Hillary in the other, they now need to consider electability in November and the electoral map before making a final decision.
If the exit polls are correct, she beat Obama by 40 points, 70% to 30%.
If 400,000 people voted, she got 280,000 votes, while Obama got 120,000. That gives her a 160,000 vote popular vote boost.
Isn't she now indisputably the leader in the popular vote as of today? While we still need to wait for S.D. and MT where Obama is expected to win,those are small states. [More...]
Based on the numbers below going into today's Puerto Rico primary, if the CNN projections are correct, Hillary will have either a 322,000 lead or a 212,000 popular vote lead over Obama.
Total votes with Florida and Michigan (From Real Clear Politics):
- Hillary: 17,428,986
- Obama: 17,266,433
- Hillary leads by 162,553 votes
Total votes with Florida and Michigan and the caucus estimates for IA, WA, NV and ME:
- Hillary: 17,652,848
- Obama: 17,600,517
- Hillary leads by 52,331 votes
Note: These include the actual vote count for Michigan. Obama cannot count any popular votes from Michigan in my view since he removed himself from the ballot. The DNC can do what they want with delegates, but they cannot change the actual vote totals of certified state elections. Now that they have agreed to seat all the delegates based on the January results, they must also count the popular votes. The election may have been flawed, but it has now been legitimized.
As I wrote last night:
If Hillary is ahead in the popular vote on June 3, there are a myriad of reasons for superdelegates to choose her over Barack Obama. Chief among them are her greater ability to win in November, particularly in the big swing states like Ohio and Florida; the electoral map that favors her; and the fact that she does so much better than Obama with older voters, rural voters, female voters and working class voters.
There are 200 uncommitted superdelegates, but any of those who have previously endorsed Obama are free to change their mind any time up until the Convention. Some may be persuaded to change their votes on June 4.
Neither Obama nor Hillary will have the necessary number of pledged delegates by June 3.
If Obama has not reached the magic number, now 2118, by June 3, there's no reason for the superdelegates to say his pledged delegate lead trumps her popular vote lead.
....The pledged delegate count is one factor but not the deciding one. If neither candidate has attained the magic number, there is no rule that the pledged delegate total counts more than the popular vote total.
At least until the last vote is counted on June 3, this is still a two person race.
For the primaries held in April and May and June, Hillary won five while Obama won three, including his 7 vote win in Guam.
If the Nebraska and Washington state primary numbers with far greater turnout were used instead of the caucus numbers, Hillary's lead in the popular vote would be even higher. See this post here.
It's all up to the superdelegates now. Will they please put on their thinking caps?
Update: See also,
Every superdelegate should read Peniel Cronin's report on caucus vs. primary results (pdf). If you know any superdelegates, send it to them (don't put their email addresses in the comments though.)
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