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Declaring Victory: Remember, Florida And Michigan Will Count In November

Politico is reporting that Barack Obama will declare victory on May 20:

Not long after the polls close in the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Barack Obama plans to declare victory in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. . . .The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations.

So let me get this straight -- the first act of the self declared Democratic nominee Barack Obama will be to state that Michigan and Florida will not count? This is insane. Two key states in November will be dissed in the first act of the newly crowned Democratic nominee. At the least, Obama should wait until he has 2209 delegates counting the existing Florida and Michigan delegations. One assumes that will likely happen by the end of the primaries barring some unforeseen event. I can not understand the logic of this approach.

More . . .

By the way, the Obama campaign is badly mishandling this situation in other ways. In the Obama post NC/IN memo makes two very strange arguments. The first:

With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days. While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.

The "wild scenario" is counting Michigan and Florida. This is simply madness from the Obama campaign at this juncture. Obama is going to be the nominee. It is time for him to think about November. The second problem from the Obama memo is its disgraceful disrespect of voters:

[T]he popular vote is a deeply flawed and illegitimate metric for deciding the nominee – since each campaign based their strategy on the acquisition of delegates. . . . Essentially, the popular vote is not much better as a metric than basing the nominee on which candidate raised more money, has more volunteers, contacted more voters, or is taller.

This is political lunacy. The Obama campaign needs to get its act together on these issues at this crucial time.

Comments closed.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Fitting (5.00 / 14) (#1)
    by JavaCityPal on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:10:00 AM EST
    and in character with the campaign he has run. I hear pundits refer to it as organized, but I see it as a bully campaign. Every episode like this speaks to which of the two candidates truly has the "entitlement" attitude, and diminishes the likelihood he will be able to move that 50% of Clinton supporters who say they can't vote for him.


    Agree! (5.00 / 7) (#13)
    by Molly Pitcher on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:09 AM EST
    Obama has no understanding of people, no intuition.  There is black, white, and nothing in between.  (It is fitting that the sentence could refer to both race and the nuances of life.)  He'd better concentrate on McCain, because he won't be getting any help from the old crones!  I hope Hillary goes on as I read she started, ignoring him also.

    from one of the old crones

    [ Parent ]

    Old crones (5.00 / 3) (#81)
    by vigkat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:45:11 AM EST
    The Obama campaign manages to disrespect and alienate large numbers of potential voters with every move it makes. It's a puzzling approach to unity, this deliberate burning of bridges and stubborn inability to see the forest for the trees.  Judgment?

    [ Parent ]
    don't you see the SCOTUS? (5.00 / 2) (#97)
    by Salo on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:48:56 AM EST
    the SCOTUS!

    [ Parent ]
    The Supreme Court (5.00 / 4) (#108)
    by stefystef on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:52:42 AM EST
    is important, but what is more important is the Dems keep picking the WRONG candidate.

    You can fight a bad Supreme Court choice, it's been done before.  Get a strong Congress and you can tie the hands of McCain easily.  Bush got away with as much as he did because of the Republican Congress.  But that has changed.

    The SCOTUS is no excuse to put a mediocre president.

    [ Parent ]

    and McCain (5.00 / 1) (#173)
    by cawaltz on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:13:23 AM EST
    MCCain.........100 years in Iraq boogedy, boogedy boo!

    I despise terror tactics. Cowardice is unbecoming.

    [ Parent ]

    no way (5.00 / 2) (#232)
    by moll on Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:54:58 AM EST
    the SCOTUS!


    It won't work.

    Obama's nominee for SCOTUS will be just as bad as McCain's.

    If the Dems let him get away with this, we will have two Republican parties in America, and nobody left to represent the people.

    Unify behind the candidate means "vote for a new coalition Democratic party" - one with no place (and no representation) for what used to be the core of the Democratic party.

    [ Parent ]

    i want to run to the bath and barf (5.00 / 3) (#226)
    by hellothere on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:33:17 AM EST
    when i hear pundits claim obama ran a brilliant campaign. this diary makes some points on that score. when obama loses the ge(almost assured), the people who write about this campaign later won't be so suck up about it. they can compare it to jesse jackson's rainbow coalition, and it will not compare well.

    this campaign has essentially broken the democratic party. the donkey is running on life support and doesn't even seem to know it. good luck with that.

    [ Parent ]

    Same Old Game (5.00 / 10) (#14)
    by Athena on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:26 AM EST
    When Obama says he's running to "change the game" - I think he means after it got rigged to give him the nomination.

    He's been way content to let heavy-handed powerbrokers in the MSM and the states distort the process so he can be a nominee without scrutiny and without votes.

    Not enough scrutiny?  Not enough votes?  No problem for The One.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama is digging his own grave. (5.00 / 6) (#83)
    by stevenb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:45:27 AM EST
    I just want to say this: if Obama and Axelrod are ACTUALLY THIS STUPID to deny MI and FL a full voice (especially considering his numbers are so good and he is the likely nominee), Obama deserves to lose in November.

    The arrogance to make a statement such as actual votes not being an accurate metric is THE MOST anti-democratic statement that he could possibly make.  They are insane, and the government he will setup will be ugly.  

    It is amazing that everyday some idiotic shocker comes out of the Obama campaign and very few people in the MSM actually take it up.

    No wonder the Clinton Campaign is tearing its hair out...

    [ Parent ]

    Unfortunately most of MSM (5.00 / 3) (#149)
    by Benjamin3 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:04:50 AM EST
    will happily go along with him.  Any mention of MI and FL is done in the context of the Clinton campaign trying to use "new math," "changing the rule" or "moving the goalposts." [sigh]  Sometimes I really feel like we're living in a Banana Republic.


    [ Parent ]
    My God (5.00 / 6) (#84)
    by Kathy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:45:56 AM EST
    How many of us remember Bush "declaring victory" when Florida was still in turmoil?  That f-ing smirking monkey.

    The freaking arrogance.  It is gobsmacking.

    As for myself, I am phone banking Oregon every spare minute I have.  Has no one considered the possibility that her wins in WVA and KY could steamroll into an Oregon win?  Even if he eeks by, to declare victory at that point is extremely dubious.  The last polls showed tightening, if I remember right.

    This is like Russia planting a flag on the bottom of the ocean and claiming it for their own.  Reminds me of that Eddie Izzard skit:  "But, we have a flag."

    [ Parent ]

    Darth Vader in the canteen (none / 0) (#101)
    by Salo on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:29 AM EST
    on the Death Star.

    "This tray is wet!"

    [ Parent ]

    Hmmph (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by litigatormom on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:57:08 AM EST
    I said several times yesterday, here and elsewhere, that I would vote for Obama in the fall, despite my disappointment with  many aspects of his campaign.

    But this is beyond disrespecting Hillary Clinton.  He is disrespecting the voters of MI and FLA.

    And he is disrespecting me. Because he obviously doesn't want my vote.

    [ Parent ]

    If he loses people (none / 0) (#203)
    by Lahdee on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:21:02 AM EST
    such as yourself, those who hope despite all, then McBush it will be.

    [ Parent ]
    He is the carbon copy of Bush---doh! (4.66 / 3) (#172)
    by MarkL on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:13:20 AM EST
    And just like Bush, he is the candidate who is intended to be the elites' errand boy.
    Bush was a bit of  a Pinocchio though. I expect Obama will have a better sense of his real prerogatives.

    [ Parent ]
    If I were in Clinton shoes... (5.00 / 13) (#4)
    by cosbo on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:13:25 AM EST
    I'd campaign until the last primary, rack up as much delegates and wins as possible, do not concede, and then just chill until the convention. Watch how the McCain vs. Obama play out over the summer with Obama as the presumptive nominee (and assumming SDs don't all jump on the bandwagon and put him over the edge), and then see what really happens when people vote on the ballot at the convention. This is a wild and crazy primary season. Wild and crazy things might happen. Heh.

    I agree (5.00 / 6) (#11)
    by katiebird on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:16:26 AM EST
    Completely.

    And since Hillary's a sticker, there's no reason to think that she won't do just that.

    [ Parent ]

    Except she is out of money (none / 0) (#96)
    by BarnBabe on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:48:39 AM EST
    She should get her $5 mil back from Mark Penn. I like this scenerio. It is only right that she goes right through Puerto Rico. They all want their say in this. I hope she does not drop out. And her getting out sooner would not make me change my mind. I do not want women to be quiters. She is in this to win and she needs to fight until the end. Like Rocky.

    [ Parent ]
    Penn won't get that money (5.00 / 1) (#153)
    by Kathy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:00 AM EST
    he'll write it off at the end of the year.  That's not a tangible debt.  All these guys zero out debts.  I've seen it on campaign after campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    Stay In Place Til August (5.00 / 7) (#19)
    by Athena on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:18:32 AM EST
    I agree.  Sit tight and watch the MSM look for a new enemy.  Should be fun.

    [ Parent ]
    In agreement. (5.00 / 6) (#36)
    by Angel on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:28 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    That's a brilliant idea! (5.00 / 8) (#55)
    by MMW on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:34:58 AM EST
    BTW - why are some on here still waiting for the Obama campaign to change their spots?

    I thought the general rule of life is that people SHOW you who they are, more than they tell you who they are.

    [ Parent ]

    I for one tend to give the (none / 0) (#59)
    by bjorn on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:37:40 AM EST
    benefit of the doubt, but that is fading fast with this news.  I want Obama to be the person his supporters think he is...

    [ Parent ]
    You are aware that you can't make him so. (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by MMW on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:48:26 AM EST
    This is not a movie, where the coward finally finds his courage, just in time to lead. It's sad really but I think so many want it to be that reality is discounted.

    If tomorrow he comes out and says he agrees with the 2209 number, does that make up for the last few months? Does it make up for the sexism, for the trashing, for everything?

    Do we all run back embracing each other, laughing and smiling.

    If that were reality, divorce lawyers would be unemployed.

    [ Parent ]

    It certainly does not (none / 0) (#113)
    by Dalton Hoffine on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:54:40 AM EST
    But it would be a lot better than him continuing to say that MI/FL don't matter. I'd rather have an insincere apology than none at all.

    [ Parent ]
    I respect your point (none / 0) (#134)
    by MMW on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:00:18 AM EST
    But I'd rather have none at all than an insincere apology. It's disrespectful, and condescending.

    [ Parent ]
    I totally agree n/t (5.00 / 1) (#110)
    by stefystef on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:53:54 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I also agree... (none / 0) (#85)
    by stevenb on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:46:14 AM EST
    except Clinton is running out of money big time.

    [ Parent ]
    Out of money (none / 0) (#128)
    by 1jane on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:58:15 AM EST
    Clinton is fundraising in Oregon today, charging $2,300 for VIP access to her and $250 for a meet and greet.

    [ Parent ]
    dang (none / 0) (#179)
    by CanadianDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:19 AM EST
    thats a pretty elitist crowd....wouldn't it be?

    [ Parent ]
    She also (none / 0) (#219)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:27:24 AM EST
    made $1 million yesterday at a women's fundraiser in  DC.

    [ Parent ]
    But (none / 0) (#87)
    by Emma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:46:31 AM EST
    Isn't McAuliffe saying there will be a nominee by June?

    I agree with what you're saying, but I'm worried about what McAuliffe is saying.  Unless he thinks 300 SDs (give or take) are going to declare for HRC.

    It all makes me very sad.  Which is totally unrelated to anything, but it does.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, didn't Obama say that (5.00 / 1) (#123)
    by cosbo on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:57:02 AM EST
    Indiana would a be a tie breaker?  Anyone could say anything at anytime...that doesn't mean it's going to happen. I mean, what if Clinton does what I suggest and just leave them hanging? How hysterical would that be?

    [ Parent ]
    McAullife also said (5.00 / 1) (#138)
    by litigatormom on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:01:11 AM EST
    that MI and FLA would be seated.

    Remember: seating MI and FLA only after the DNC awards Obama the nomination on the basis of 2025 delegates means that that MI and FLA cannot be seated. Seating them after a victory based on 2025 delegates means that they have had no impact on the nomination; it means no more that they've been given passes to the convention hall.

    2209 is the magic number. Period.

    [ Parent ]

    It is time for Hillary (5.00 / 5) (#7)
    by The Realist on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:14:28 AM EST
    To go Independent.

    I wish she would do it (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:19:48 AM EST
    The party has done zilch to earn her loyalty.  She'd be totally justified.

    But she's too "loyal".  

    Just as the party, the media, and the process has been analogous to the "wife beater" who now explains that "he only did it because she deserved it", she's the beaten wife who always goes back to the husband.

    I'd respect her more if she went indy after all this.  She could take Obama and McCain votes, especially the ones Donna Brazille doesn't "need".

    [ Parent ]

    She can't go independent (5.00 / 1) (#141)
    by litigatormom on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:02:09 AM EST
    It would destroy her husband's legacy. She won't do it.

    Alas. I'd vote for her as an independent.

    [ Parent ]

    The party has done zilch for her??? (none / 0) (#46)
    by jimotto on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:32:05 AM EST
    Let's see, 25% of the superdelegates lined up at her side before a vote had been cast.

    A majority of major party fundraisers lined up with her.

    The party infrastructure of every major democratic state with the exception of Illinois lined up with her.  

    Despite all this, she was unable to get more delegates awarded through elections.  And, now that it appears that a majority of the remaining superdelegates aren't going to side with her, you say the party has done zilch for her???  Two democrats are left running for president, one has to lose.  That is no excuse for the loser to go Lieberman.

    [ Parent ]

    Massachusetts (5.00 / 3) (#52)
    by bjorn on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:34:39 AM EST
    did not line up with her and she won it anyway.  I do resent the Obama people who give all the credit to Rendell in PA, but none of the blame for the loss in MASS to Patrick.  And there are plenty of other states where Obama has had a lot of institutional support

    [ Parent ]
    Massachusetts (none / 0) (#140)
    by stefystef on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:02:03 AM EST
    is sick of Patrick and ready to get rid of him.
    McCain is polling better than Obama in Massachusetts.

    This MI and FL situation will haunt the DNC in August and in November.  I hope the MI and FL delegates walk out of the convention in protest of their crappy treatment.

    Unity???  I don't know about that.

    [ Parent ]

    If the primaries in MI and FL (5.00 / 3) (#70)
    by pie on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:41:11 AM EST
    hadn't been deliberately tampered with, we'd be in a different place right now.  

    [ Parent ]
    Her people were totally on board with at the DNC. (none / 0) (#194)
    by jimotto on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:18:37 AM EST
    Obama had no sway when the decision was handed down.  The penalty was the same one Terry Mcauliffe threatened MI with in 2004.  There were no complaints from Hillary's campaign about the penalty until after Iowa.  

    Was it a shitty solution?  Absolutely, the Reps actually got it right on their side by stripping half the delegates and then letting the campaign go on.  If we had done that we wouldn't be in this mess.  

    But to say it's Obama or his campaigns fault were in this mess is ludicrous.

    [ Parent ]

    I think you've (5.00 / 6) (#73)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:42:12 AM EST
    been seeing something I haven't been seeing.

    How about in-the-tank DNC Donna Brazille going on CNN ever day in praise of Obama...and nobody from the party came out against the bias of this.

    How about Dean wringing his hands on FL/MI to help Obama?

    How about progressive bloggers now revealing their true intention (by their actions) -- that ridding the "party" of the Clinton Pestulence was more important than winning?

    How about Moveon whom she supported in the senate, whereas Obama didn't, going after her and supporting him with their lying "vote".

    How abut the party standing aside while Obama labeled the Clintons racists.  How about them also standing by while Obama trashed the last two term presidency we had?  Good luck seeing such a thing in the next 20 years.

    Sorry, but if she declared indy, I assure you, the lion's share of her supporters would be all for it, for all of these reasons and more.

    [ Parent ]

    I'd support (none / 0) (#94)
    by Emma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:48:29 AM EST
    HRC as an independent in a New York minute.  But I'm sure she won't do it.

    [ Parent ]
    If she went indy... (none / 0) (#116)
    by jeffhas on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:55:18 AM EST
    I'd absolutely support her, but she would just hand the Presidency to Obama.

    Working Class whites would split between her and McCain, and the AA'a and youth would finally be enough on their own to put him over.

    [ Parent ]

    You think (5.00 / 1) (#125)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:57:48 AM EST
    she'd take more of McCain's voters than Obama's voters?  Highly doubtful.  I think she'd take some of each and might win.

    [ Parent ]
    The problem (none / 0) (#191)
    by Benjamin3 on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:18:10 AM EST
    is there isn't enough time to get on the ballot in all states.  I don't think Hillary would do anything like that.  

    [ Parent ]
    One problem with your observations (5.00 / 2) (#100)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:19 AM EST
    (and I agree, btw....she did have good support).

    The system is not valid.  We now see that clearly.  Someone who has failed to put together a broad coalition and mostly performed in Red states and caucuses is about to be the nominee.

    something off with the picture

    Meanwhile, the candidate that has won the major states and has an impressive coalition that spans the population is losing.

    [ Parent ]

    The system is totally valid. (none / 0) (#223)
    by jimotto on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:30:13 AM EST
    It was agreed to by all parties.  It is valid.  Is it perfect?  No, but it is valid.  And you know what?  The system allows for the candidate to be chosen by the criteria you lay out.  The superdelegates are free to look at the argument you lay out on major states, agree with it, and run to Hillary and declare her the nominee.

    But, peaking as someone living in the red state of NC (well, actually the blue state at the state level and the red state at the federal level), do you really just want democrats in the NE and West coast to make decisions for the party?  You wouldn't have a majority in congress if it wasn't for democratic congressmen from red states.  You wouldn't have a majority in the Senate if it wasn't for democratic Senators from red states.  Democrats in red states are a piece of the puzzle, and hopefully some of our states (including NC) will be part of the electoral puzzle this fall as well.

    [ Parent ]

    She will never do that. She's a Dem thru and thru (none / 0) (#64)
    by jawbone on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:59 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    wasn't that (none / 0) (#184)
    by CanadianDem on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:15:37 AM EST
    the Lieberman route as well?

    [ Parent ]
    I sensed (5.00 / 11) (#9)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:15:17 AM EST
    that Dean would not back down, regardless of how stupid it is.

    The underlying message all along has been to redefine the Democratic party by ousting Clinton.  The truth of the matter is that Florida won't go to Obama, no matter what.  He performs very poorly with seniors, Latinos, and Jewish Dems.  Therefore, he's not going to worry about it.  He's not going to worry about the voters who view his candidacy as illegitimate, either.  The average person doesn't follow stories like this so closely.  And Dean's insider group is determined to grab the power from the Clintons.

    They are defying people to swallow it or vote Republican, counting on the fact that people are highly dissatisfied with the Republican party right now.  It's a risk they are willing to take.

    Simple (5.00 / 7) (#31)
    by Athena on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:24:52 AM EST
    Who needs Florida when you have Idaho?  LOL.

    [ Parent ]
    HAHAHAHA (5.00 / 2) (#89)
    by JavaCityPal on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:47:13 AM EST
    It is amazing where his campaign has succeeded in pushing their way up the numbers, but truly doesn't have a grasp of the voting trends in the states.

    I'm one of the 50% Clintonites who can't see a way to voting for Obama, but there are 9 other members of my family who feel the same way, and 7 more we could sway. WA is generally a blue state, but it won't be this season if 25% or more of the heavy concentration areas of democrats won't vote for Obama.

    Clinton dropping out of the race is NOT best for the country. Forcing her to do that destroys the party because it has never happened before, and it's happening to the first viable woman ever to run. The entire premise of the Democratic Party is eroding faster than the polar ice caps are melting.


    [ Parent ]

    I feel bad for the other working class dems (1.00 / 5) (#154)
    by demsforlife on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:06:19 AM EST
    that did vote Obama. Instead of moving on, idiots like you and your family that would knowingly assist McCain by not voting against him are pathetic.

    Hopefully if McCain becomes pres, he screws you and your family and those who wouldn't vote against him right into the dirt.

    We all see what Bush did the last 8 years and I see your ilk hasn't had enough. Hopefully you get what you rightly deserve.

    [ Parent ]

    I suggest you apologize (none / 0) (#166)
    by Davidson on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:11:41 AM EST
    Immediately.

    [ Parent ]
    I suggest (1.00 / 2) (#193)
    by demsforlife on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:18:36 AM EST
    you look up "you reap what you sow."

    [ Parent ]
    Or Colorado? (none / 0) (#144)
    by litigatormom on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:03:10 AM EST
    Or Washington?

    Florida? Epicenter of the 2000 debacle?  The reason why Al Gore isn't in his last year of his second term?  Who needs Florida?

    [ Parent ]

    The media and the GOP (5.00 / 5) (#41)
    by Davidson on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:28:56 AM EST
    They will make sure everyone is made aware of what has been done not out of concern for basic democratic principles, of course, but to hurt the Democratic party.  At this point, they have no greater ally in destroying the party than the Democratic "leadership."

    I say: let's take this to the convention.  Let them bury the Democratic party for all to see.

    [ Parent ]

    yep (5.00 / 4) (#42)
    by kempis on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:29:03 AM EST
    AnninCA: The underlying message all along has been to redefine the Democratic party by ousting Clinton.

    That's certainly the attitude Markos and Arianna and a lot of "progressive" bloggers have promoted. And as they toss the Clintons (and the "bitter" and unenlightened blue collar voters) out like trash, I'm following them out the door.

    I honestly don't get it. Don't these people remember that the Democratic victories in 2006 depended on these very voters that Hillary has appealed to and Obama has alienated? We're not talking ancient history here. Can they possibly think the country has undergone a profound sea-change in two years, a change that renders a Kerry-Dukakis-Mondale kind of candidate electable?

    The best hope the Dems have is that McCain will be so weak and so despised by elements in his own party that Obama can beat him. And that may be the case. But McCain is sure to benefit from a significant number of Reagan Dems who'll be voting for him over Obama in November. They'll be joined by the reluctant warriors of the conservative movement who'll see Obama as a far bigger threat than Hillary ever was.

    [ Parent ]

    a Contest to see (none / 0) (#214)
    by cawaltz on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:25:54 AM EST
    which of the frontrunners are least disliked by their base. Thing is the GOP is used to compromising and marching in lockstep. THEY would be moe inclined to be scaed into voting McCain then aDemocrat being scared into voting Obama

    [ Parent ]
    This is exactly it. (5.00 / 5) (#53)
    by pie on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:34:42 AM EST
    The underlying message all along has been to redefine the Democratic party by ousting Clinton.

    That's why Obama could feel comfortable trashing Bill Clinton's presidency and vilifying Hillary.  And yes, the bloggers were in on it from the get-go (as was MoveOn).  They went into full attack mode, and I didn't understand why, at first.

    They're betting we'll all accept it and embrace Obama.

    Guess we'll see.  Wonder how John Edwards feels.  Might explain more of Gore's rationale, too.

    [ Parent ]

    Gore is going to endorse (1.00 / 2) (#63)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:38:47 AM EST
    Obama soon.  He handed out a warning signal yesterday, saying "I may endorse."  

    Get ready.  It's going to be painful!

    [ Parent ]

    As much as I love Al Gore, he cannot convince (5.00 / 2) (#98)
    by Angel on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:49:08 AM EST
    me to vote for Obama in November.  I will be writing in Hillary Clinton on my ballot.  

    [ Parent ]
    I love Al Gore, too (5.00 / 2) (#139)
    by sister of ye on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:01:25 AM EST
    But it won't say much for him or help his climate change crusade if he endorses the candidate that has far poorer environmental and energy policies. Al Gore support the guy who praised Republican ideas on deregulation? That would totally clinch that we've slipped into a a bizarro universe.

    [ Parent ]
    What? When? Where? (none / 0) (#67)
    by jawbone on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:39:52 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    At This Point, Who Cares (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by cdalygo on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:47:21 AM EST
    Gore will endorse him. Then the Clinton campaign will release how much he and Hillary always hated each other.

    Beyond that animosity what does this endorsement say about Gore? More than anyone else - well outside of the disenfranchised voters - he should understand the political and human cost to denying someone the right to vote. Yet he's willing to toss it aside.

    Keep working on those book sales, Al.

    [ Parent ]

    Gore (none / 0) (#80)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:44:05 AM EST
    only said "I may endorse."  Given his endorsement has been so sought after, I concluded he's letting everyone know that he's about to jump off the fence.

    My guess is.....Obama.  Just reading the tea leaves here.  

    [ Parent ]

    I don't understand the spotlight (5.00 / 1) (#130)
    by JavaCityPal on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:58:36 AM EST
    on Gore. He has all but thumbed his nose at the political process with his new Hollywood life. He is too far removed from government, and he is made to look the buffoon with his "chicken little" approach to global warming. Those who believe it not only doesn't exist, but it isn't man made if it does, could care less. His superdelegate vote is more significant than his endorsement.

    The endorsements this season have changed the dynamic. They are viewed as political posturing for personal agendas. Obama has purchased his, or promised something, and that greatly diminishes the value to voters.


    [ Parent ]

    Gore will lose my respect, if true (5.00 / 4) (#152)
    by Davidson on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:05:45 AM EST
    I was there in FL when the election was stolen, working for the Gore campaign.  It was my very first election as a voter and it was utterly devastating.  For him to endorse Obama, who depends on the disenfranchisement of two states to "win," is basically a big "F*** you!" to democracy, voters, and all of us who wept in 2000.

    The Democrats honestly think the media and GOP won't expose them, don't they?  My God, they've bought their own hype.  If Obama does succeed in taking the nomination, everyone will know it was by illegitimate means.  How will that help the Democratic party?  What good will Obama be as an (empty) symbol of "change" and racial progress if his candidacy is exposed as nothing more than the result of Chicago-style politics and paints him as a caricature of PC gone horribly awry.

    [ Parent ]

    Gore means nothing to the core Dems (none / 0) (#196)
    by stefystef on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:19:04 AM EST
    or they would have come out in more support of him in 2000.

    Gore's opinion means very little to me and very little to the average Democratic.  

    As usual, the Democratic Party get the wrong candidate.  And the Republicans are going to have a field day.

    [ Parent ]

    Gore, Richardson, Edwards, Kennedy, (none / 0) (#142)
    by JavaCityPal on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:03:01 AM EST
    Kerry, McGovern, Carter are all presidential contenders who lost. The democratic party doesn't forget that. Their day in the sun ended when they lost either their bid for nomination, or the election. It stands to jealous reason they sure wouldn't want both Clinton's to get their day in the oval office.


    [ Parent ]
    What happens to Edwards delegates? (none / 0) (#129)
    by jawbone on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:58:33 AM EST
    He's not giving them to Obama, right?

    And they're pledged to him until the second round of voting at the Convention, when all delegates can vote their own minds, right?

    [ Parent ]

    What happens to Edwards delegates... (none / 0) (#195)
    by bobbski on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:18:37 AM EST
    "And they're pledged to him until the second round of voting at the Convention, when all delegates can vote their own minds, right?"

    IIRC, under "The Rules" pledged delegates are not required to vote for the candidate to whom they have been pledged.

    Seem to have read that somewhere.

    [ Parent ]

    With so much of the left (none / 0) (#224)
    by Skex on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:31:39 AM EST
    Dead set against Hillary from the get go don't you have to ask why? And consider that maybe we had a legitimate reason to begin with?

    Molly explained it best

    Enough. Enough triangulation, calculation and equivocation. Enough clever straddling, enough not offending anyone This is not a Dick Morris election. Sen. Clinton is apparently incapable of taking a clear stand on the war in Iraq, and that alone is enough to disqualify her. Her failure to speak out on Terri Schiavo, not to mention that gross pandering on flag-burning, are just contemptible little dodges.

    Damn I miss her

    Clinton lost this nomination in 2002 when she voted for the Iraq war.

    [ Parent ]

    I think you're right (5.00 / 4) (#68)
    by MMW on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:40:29 AM EST
    but for a different sentence than the other responders here :)

    "They are defying people to swallow it or vote Republican, counting on the fact that people are highly dissatisfied with the Republican party right now.  It's a risk they are willing to take."

    That last sentence is key. The last two years since the 06 elections the meme has been that Dems can't lose this one because the Reps are so bad, the country fed up with them.

    The weirdest thing is - I've always thought that idea was totally wrong, particularly when Reid and Pelosi have accomplished exactly zip.

    [ Parent ]

    For a little historical perspective (5.00 / 3) (#150)
    by esmense on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:05:14 AM EST
    This is just the attitude the Dems had in '72 -- that both the war and Nixon were so unpopular that ANY Democrat was assured of winning.

    But, with a bad candidate, that "can't lose" year turned into a disaster.

    [ Parent ]

    And people might be so mad (5.00 / 2) (#190)
    by BarnBabe on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:17:53 AM EST
    That the coattail effect is the Dems could lose the Senate again. All those GOP voters are going to cross back over where they belong. One thing that men might not understand about this election. It is personal to women. It is the way most of us have lived our entire lives. And we are use to backing down in many cases. The few who don't are labeled, as Hillary, a Witch.(sp). I think Obama will only anger more women and Hillary supporters if he declares victory. A majority of woman won't care about threats of judges (been there done that). They proved that in 04 when the worse President of the US got re-elected. And if Obama steamrolls over Hillary, the women have few options in a way of conveying their unhappiness. He will already lose Florida. And I suspect in Penna, also. Maybe Ohio. So he will be making a BIG mistake if he declares victory. I caught Axelrod on CNN last night and he look terrible. Unkempt and sinister. Heh.  

    [ Parent ]
    BarnBabe (5.00 / 1) (#212)
    by Kathy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:25:29 AM EST
    you are so right.  Yet again, all these blowhards underestimate the reaction women have to this type of bullying.  Some may not be vocal about it, but when they get to the privacy of the polling booth, they know what to do.

    That is, if they show up at all.

    [ Parent ]

    Exactly Zip (3.50 / 2) (#143)
    by jeffhas on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:03:09 AM EST
    Hasn't been recognized enough by mainstream voters because the R's have had the White House and D's a slim majority in the congress...

    But give 'em the White House, and ALL THE BLAME will go to the Dems - exactly Zip will become top of the fold news - they'll have a one-termer... all for the sake of purging the Clintons.

    You know - if the Repubs would simply lighten up some of their Social stances - they might be able to convince me they have a big enough tent for me.

    Just get 'neutral' on some of them, and I'm there.

    [ Parent ]

    I don't know (5.00 / 1) (#102)
    by Emma on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:36 AM EST
    My sister, who's pretty average, thinks it's totally unfair that MI votes won't count toward picking the nominee.  And when she heard I won't vote in Nov. for Obama, that made her really pay attention.

    Maybe most people don't have any real solid opinion re MI and FL primaries NOW, but that'll change when the Republicans go after it and define the topic for them.

    [ Parent ]

    The perception is all that matters.... (5.00 / 2) (#132)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:59:06 AM EST
    and the public will not understand this "rule" stuff that Obama has done.  They will hear only that:

    He blocked revotes.
    MI and FL voters were stripped of their votes.
    Other states broke rules but weren't penalized in this way.

    And he stole the election.

    Add that to the current questions regarding his credentials as a "good" American (can't think how to say it nicer)....and you will see a solidifying message that he's not right for the job.

    I could also write the plan for how McCain could win handily at this point.  :)

    [ Parent ]

    Bingo! (5.00 / 1) (#180)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:14:45 AM EST
    And he stole the election.

    And that's the soundbite for McCain to use  - right there in 5 words.

    [ Parent ]

    Not quite. (4.85 / 7) (#76)
    by pie on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:43:37 AM EST
    They are defying people to swallow it or vote Republican, counting on the fact that people are highly dissatisfied with the Republican party right now.  It's a risk they are willing to take.

    They're dissatisfied with the Bush administration.  Dems haven't exactly been stellar either in the last eight years - congressional approval ratings anyone?

    [ Parent ]

    Thank you! (5.00 / 6) (#88)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:47:00 AM EST
    I'm looking at this risk and thinking, "Are you this stupid?"  The approval ratings for the Dems is only barely above Republicans.  The public doesn't like any of them.  LOL*

    So I agree that this is a very, very foolish move, and I'm convinced it truly will break the party.  But it's not going to be Hillary that does that.  It was be the insiders who pulled this crud who finally do it.

    I'm also ready to see a viable third party that is moderate, centrist, and with a nice dose of social liberalism and fiscal conservatism.

    And I swear......people would be calling asking where to sign up.  :)

    [ Parent ]

    Also. (5.00 / 2) (#120)
    by pie on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:56:18 AM EST
    I didn't realize that the Clintons were such awful democrats.  So bad, in fact, that they're being pushed aside.

    What have I missed?

    [ Parent ]

    They win (5.00 / 1) (#160)
    by Davidson on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:08:58 AM EST
    Oh, and they have this absurd notion of fighting the right and not holding the working class in contempt.  Bizarre!

    [ Parent ]
    You know (5.00 / 16) (#10)
    by cmugirl on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:16:21 AM EST
    At this point, I say bring it on Obama.  Have your glory through August and then watch you get your behind handed to you in the fall as you watch masters at work. I just can't care anymore and frankly, it will be schadenfreude to watch him completely meltdown.  I can see the whining and hand wringing now.

    AACCKKK!  I am so disgusted with this man.

    Agreed (5.00 / 3) (#156)
    by rnibs on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:08:01 AM EST
    His focus is all on himself.  The point of the primaries was to let the voters select the nominee, not for someone to declare themselves the nominee.  

    The thing I like about Hillary is she always focuses on the voters and their needs.  And she's willing to put up with a lot of crap to try to help us.

    [ Parent ]

    If the point of the primaries (5.00 / 1) (#228)
    by kenoshaMarge on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:37:55 AM EST
    is to let the voters select the nominee we all ready lost that chance when the media selected Obama and Hillary Clinton because they made the best "story" and were historic. Then they chose Obama as their darling and have force fed him to the public ever since.

    If Hillary Clinton were not such an incredibly strong candidate the media would have put her away long ago. Obama without the media at his back is not even in the same class.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, at least we all know what Obama's idea of (5.00 / 5) (#15)
    by chancellor on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:31 AM EST
    post-partisanship is now. Michigan, to me, has always been the more dicey of the two situations, because there was far more campaign posturing surrounding the decision by candidates to keep their names off the ballot. But Florida was very clearly a case of Democrats being railroaded by Repubs in their own state. Additionally, the FL vote percentages, by candidate, were very reflective of voting patterns in other early election states.

    Hillary has already suggested that MI and FL may represent legal cases for voter rights and civil rights. All it's going to take is some group deciding to file suit on these issues and the whole Dem nominating process will turn into an extended nightmare.

    Talk About Moving The Goalposts! (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by flashman on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:17:46 AM EST
    Obama will not reach the 2,025 magic number on May 20. Rather, on that date he is all but certain to hit a different threshold--1,627 pledged delegates, which would constitute a winning majority among the 3,253 total pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not included

    Now the magic number is 1,627???  What balony!  This claim is utterly false and misleading.  Obama will never reach 2025 in pleadged delegates, and he knows it.  So, he wants to move the number to something he can achieve.  All these silly "magic number" games are irrelevant.  At the end of the day, the pleadged and super delegates will be counted, and whomever has the most will win.  There is no rational for calling the race early.

    Interestingly (none / 0) (#21)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:18:59 AM EST
    I did not even focus on that because it struck me as rather stupid. The 2025 issue is the tough one.

    [ Parent ]
    not really (none / 0) (#26)
    by TruthMatters on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:21:06 AM EST
    once Obama basically agreed to the MI compromise he is all but agreeing then to raise the number from 2,025.

    but he is also helping to ensure the supers can move to him, and Hillary has little options left to stay in.

    and at this point I highly doubt Hillary rejects the MI compromise.

    [ Parent ]

    Remember (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by flashman on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:28:23 AM EST
    Let's keep in mind that neither will make the 2025 number of the 22... whatever it may be raised to.  Also, let's dismiss all the chatter about SD's truncating the process.  Remember, SD's are not pleadged, and really don't count until they vote at the convention.  The media has been pinping a wrong impression about that.  Those of us who, like me, have threshold "senior citizen" memories need to refresh our information base from time to time.

    [ Parent ]
    She could let it go to the convention (5.00 / 2) (#44)
    by Manuel on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:30:28 AM EST
    That's the scenario the DNC does not want to see.

    [ Parent ]
    She will accept it I imagine (none / 0) (#38)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:27:54 AM EST
    Her lead was was 18 delegates in Michigan. This way she get the popular vote accepted from Michigan.

    [ Parent ]
    This makes me.... (5.00 / 3) (#20)
    by indymom on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:18:33 AM EST
    ...cry.  

    And the guy's campaign who released this memo (5.00 / 4) (#23)
    by Militarytracy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:20:20 AM EST
    is going to be the Democratic nominee?  This is so sick and so sad!

    Still a good chance Obama will lose Popular (5.00 / 4) (#27)
    by Exeter on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:22:47 AM EST
    vote. And he is still neck and neck with Clinton in the polls.  

    Interesting article (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by AnninCA on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:42:54 AM EST
    here on FL/MI situation that was on the other thread.  Think it might apply more to this thread.

    Really good read.....and I'd love to hear what you guys think.

    http://tominpaine.blogspot.com/2008/05/flordia-and-michigan-and-how-democrats.html

    [ Parent ]

    I don't understand the tone (5.00 / 6) (#28)
    by bjorn on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:23:30 AM EST
    of the Obama campaign at this point.  When is he going to start being a leader and a gracious winner.  I was disturbed yesterday when Eugene Robinson on Race08 said he had info to suggest Obama was not going to make it easy for Clinton, was not going to offer to pay her campaign debt, etc...like he does not need Clinton.  I thought maybe he was exaggerating but the info in this post lends support to what he said.  Very sad.

    She doesn't need him either (5.00 / 2) (#159)
    by jeffhas on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:08:53 AM EST
    If she were to accept his help, she'd have to sell her soul to support him.

    She doesn't need him to help her pay her debt - she has a former president as a husband, they can go out and speak or send letters & emails - she will get the money to pay her debt over a couple of months.

    If I find out she's supporting him because of JUST THE APPEARANCE that he is blackmailing her with debt relief I'll be crushed as an HRC supporter.

    [ Parent ]

    This whole debt issue (5.00 / 3) (#162)
    by lilburro on Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:09:38 AM EST
    I find ridiculous.  It is being used mostly to humiliate her.  It's in very, very bad taste, IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    Not surprising (5.00 / 4) (#33)
    by Manuel on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:25:16 AM EST
    Disrespect FL and MI.
    Disrespect the Voters.
    Disrespect the oponent.

    I am even less hopeful there will be a united party in November.  The Obama campaign must be very confident in its ability to get independents and Republicans.  They realy must think they don't need Clinton supporters to win as Donna Brazille implied Tuesday night.


    the logic (5.00 / 5) (#47)
    by Capt Howdy on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:32:16 AM EST
    they are starting to believe their own spin.
    the most dangerous of political bungles.
    IMO

    Missing the point (5.00 / 9) (#60)
    by pluege on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:37:44 AM EST
    Obama's campaign has always been about beating Clinton. It has had little to do with Obama becoming POTUS.

    very true (5.00 / 3) (#103)
    by Josey on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:50:52 AM EST
    the DC/Dem and media establishment propped up a newbie senator to run against a knowledgeable and experienced candidate who really would shake up Washington.
    Puppets are puppets regardless of Party affiliation.


    [ Parent ]
    Plus this act will further divide the party (5.00 / 8) (#86)
    by BigB on Thu May 08, 2008 at 09:46:30 AM EST
    if Obama declares on May 20 that he has won the nomination without resolving MI and FL then the Democratic party is no more.

    There will be an Obama wing of the party and all the rest of us.

    I have now come to the point where I no longer think of myself as part of any party that has anything to do with Obama. Howard Dean, Donna Brazille, John Kerry, and Nancy Pelosi.

    As of now, I am an unaffiliated voter who supports Hillary Clinton.