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Electability NC Style

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:43:38 PM EST
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One of the stories Obama supporters like to tell us is that Obama will put North Carolina in play and Hillary can not. I think neither can put North Carolina in play. SUSA says I am wrong:

Obama 43
McCain 51

Clinton 49
McCain 43

According to SUSA, Clinton wins in North Carolina. Obama loses. So if North Carolina is part of the map changing, that seems to be an argument for Hillary Clinton. Not Barack Obama.

By Big Tent Democrat

< Hillary's Victory Speech in Kentucky | Final Kentucky Results Thread >

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    Electability NC Style | 137 comments (137 topical)

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    So Much For That Big NC Primary Win.... (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:45:38 PM EST
    GO HILLARY!!

    wowsers, talk about counterintuitive. (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by kangeroo on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:45:45 PM EST
    well hey, that's great news for us clinton fans.  :)

    Hillary had a problem. (5.00 / 3) (#91)
    by ghost2 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:15:19 PM EST
    She is smart, hard working, dedicated, and all that.  But if this campaign had gone as expected, there will be some who always argue that she got there because her husband was president.  Many voters would have had this point of view.

    No one with a shred of honesty can claim that anymore (I exclude MSM and some bloggers from this, as they do not have an iota of honesty.)  She has earned EVERY vote.  She has earned RESPECT from friends and foe.

    Who has watched this campaign who hasn't been simply AWED by her tenacity and strength?  Who has watched this election who doesn't admire her?

    That's the secret to the astonishing turnaround in this campaign.  The reason working class people are coming to her in droves.  They now understand exactly how tough she is and they like it.  

    Did they realize it too late? Did her campaign wait too long?  We don't know.  I think the voters finally get her, and they very much like what they see.

    It will be delicious irony if she became President by virtue of a massive swing of republicans towards her.  She may inspire a huge turnout of republicans in GE, but to vote for her, not against her.


    Parent

    North Carolina has an Obama problem? (5.00 / 4) (#4)
    by diplomatic on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:46:26 PM EST


    Holy Sh*t! (5.00 / 10) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:47:32 PM EST
    I did NOT expect this.

    This is the kind of polling that could actually make the electability argument SELL.

    We could get a 55% national victory this year, but only with Hillary Clinton.

    My informant on the ground in (5.00 / 5) (#12)
    by oculus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:48:57 PM EST
    Western NC may be correct after all.

    Parent
    It's True! (5.00 / 1) (#116)
    by Boo Radly on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:35:58 PM EST
    I love it! Even the Repugs want a better living in this area. They know she's smart and will work for all of us. They will vote for her here.

    They are sick of war - very patriotic. No trust for BO.

    Parent

    Amazing. (5.00 / 4) (#31)
    by madamab on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:53:12 PM EST
    The depth and strength of HRC's support is absolutely shocking.

    And the national Party wants to throw it all away for some weak "I'll win the West" argument.

    What is wrong with them?!

    Parent

    What's wrong with them? Fear! And BO's $$! (none / 0) (#122)
    by BostonIndependent on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:50:43 PM EST
    This poll is very interesting .. now, isn't it?

    Have any of the SD's who turned to Obama in the past few days explained how they view this electability argument?

    Or is it just the blogger crowd that cares about that sort of thing and winning in November?

    Parent

    I hope OR got the memo (none / 0) (#16)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:49:26 PM EST


    Parent
    My sentiments exactly. (none / 0) (#108)
    by Avedon on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:29:04 PM EST
    Frankly, I'm surprised to see Obama that close, but Hillary beating McCain?  Oh, I would love to see a Dem win in NC!

    Funnily enough, I saw a comment thread somewhere recently (HuffPo, I think) where someone was actually claiming that Obama could take Mississippi, whereas Hillary couldn't.  The idea that a Dem could win Mississippi is pretty funny.

    And, in fact, McCain has about a 10-point lead over Clinton there, but a 13-point lead over Obama.  (Which is better than I expected in both cases.) I don't know what these people are thinking.

    Parent

    And HRC does better with NC college grads! (5.00 / 7) (#6)
    by RonK Seattle on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:47:37 PM EST


    Oh. My. Gawd. (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by oldpro on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:53:47 PM EST


    Parent
    I just got chills :) (none / 0) (#82)
    by nycstray on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:10:25 PM EST
    no, NOT a "tweety tingle", but the real thing!  

    Parent
    Best Candidate EVA!!! (5.00 / 11) (#7)
    by masslib on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:48:07 PM EST
    Admit it.  She's the better, stronger candidate.

    Let's nominate her!

    Heh (5.00 / 7) (#8)
    by Steve M on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:48:12 PM EST
    Are you sure this isn't the KUSA poll?  Not that there's anything wrong with that, of course.

    Surprised the hell out of me (5.00 / 3) (#21)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:50:27 PM EST


    Parent
    And me (5.00 / 5) (#27)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:52:04 PM EST
    But North Carolina is a nominally Democratic state. So in a year like this, it should have been possible.

    Hillary Clinton's transformation into the populist working class hero has made this possible.

    Parent

    The invisible people (5.00 / 8) (#40)
    by chrisvee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:55:46 PM EST
    are rising up to take the election away from the establishment candidates and give it to our great populist champion, Hillary Clinton.

    I'm just sitting here shaking my head in amazement.   What a primary.

    I still don't think the SDs will have the intestinal fortitude to go against the pledged delegate leader but I can dream.

    Parent

    Indeed (5.00 / 5) (#46)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:57:02 PM EST
    Hillary Clinton's electibility argument is almost iron clad at this point.

    If John McCain has to defend NC, he can forget about Pennsylvania--perhaps even Florida.

    Parent

    County Results (5.00 / 5) (#63)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:04:18 PM EST
    Did you see the country map highlighted by county wins..... it was showing Clinton's strength.  She has huge swaths of light blue.  There is no way that the superdelegates are going to discount the huge appeal to working class Americans.

    I am thoroughly enjoying Fox's coverage.  They be lovin' them some Clinton.  They are having Clinton supporters on... McAuliffe, Lanny Davis etc.

    The women talking heads keep talking about admiring her, her tenacity, refusing to be a good little lady. How men are telling the 'sweetie' to get out of the race.

    Fox is making Clinton's argument by going after her voters.

    Fox spent the evening discussing the joint ticket.

    Parent

    Wouldn't it be great if Hillary (none / 0) (#106)
    by zfran on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:25:09 PM EST
    got the nomination and they had to cancel MSNBC!!! Rise, Hillary, rise!

    Parent
    Not quite sure how this happened (5.00 / 5) (#100)
    by RalphB on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:21:32 PM EST
    but she's transformed herself from a Clinton Democrat into an FDR Democrat.  I think her own more populist beliefs coming out after Penn disappeared is responsible.  Either way, it's awfully good to see.


    Parent
    Well, not just that (5.00 / 1) (#121)
    by chancellor on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:46:23 PM EST
    Hillary beats McCain by 19 points among women voters--19! If Hillary is the nominee, I predict that women from both parties will feel comfortable enough voting for her that she could truly pull off a major victory.

    Parent
    <yawn> (5.00 / 10) (#10)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:48:35 PM EST
     KUSA predicted this ages ago.

    Thanks (5.00 / 2) (#79)
    by nell on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:09:40 PM EST
    for existing, Kathy. I can always count on you for a laugh and to lift my spirits when I am tired of phone banking and taking on the evil media in email after email.

    Parent
    Worlds Are Colliding (5.00 / 3) (#13)
    by chrisvee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:49:00 PM EST
    Are we sure this is SUSA and not KUSA? :-)

    Neither would win North Carolina, but it's a (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by tigercourse on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:49:44 PM EST
    further indication that Obama is falling apart in terms of the general election, while Clinton is gaining steam.

    Will someone please take one for the team (5.00 / 4) (#22)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:50:37 PM EST
    and go peek at DKOS? I'm sure this poll is front-paged....

    I sent Markos an e-mail (5.00 / 15) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:51:32 PM EST
    to tweak him.

    Parent
    now that's just....mean (5.00 / 2) (#67)
    by vicndabx on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:05:42 PM EST
    :-)

    Parent
    LOL! Did I tell you that I love you? (none / 0) (#98)
    by ghost2 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:19:54 PM EST


    Parent
    Kos is too busy calling Ferraro a racist (none / 0) (#110)
    by Josey on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:29:52 PM EST
    and inciting more race-baiting.


    Parent
    Love It HeHe n/t (none / 0) (#131)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:29:11 PM EST


    Parent
    Can't find it on the front page (none / 0) (#96)
    by samanthasmom on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:17:59 PM EST
    Clinton's victory speech "Blah, Blah, Blah" is there. More "delegate" math. Obama's fundraising. McCain perusing blogs for talking points. Kentucky results.  No - no North Carolina polls.  Now I need a bath.

    Parent
    Wonder if there are more hillbillies than (5.00 / 2) (#25)
    by Molly Pitcher on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:51:34 PM EST
    AA's?  Who knows, since the hillbillies don't even show up for the census sometimes.  I reckon we were behind the door when the brains got passed out.  We have other kind of smarts tho. I think.

    Hooray for state where I went to high school! (Before time began.)

    Hurray!!! (5.00 / 2) (#26)
    by eleanora on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:52:01 PM EST
    Wow, what a wonderful poll! I want to hug it and take it home and name it...Hillary. SUSA isn't quite up to KUSA's standard, but I'll take it :)

    hey, throw in making it some brownies (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:57:13 PM EST
    and KUSA can be bought.

    Parent
    Clinton campaign (5.00 / 4) (#28)
    by chrisvee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:52:13 PM EST
    needs to start citing this poll tomorrow as part of their 'it's the map, not the math' argument before another poll comes out and contradicts it. :-)

    Clinton campaign should be on the (5.00 / 4) (#36)
    by oculus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:54:50 PM EST
    phone and Internet contacting the major networks NOW.  How about a "breaking news" interruption during Obama's remarks in IA?

    Parent
    I like (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by chrisvee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:58:42 PM EST
    your idea better.  I was almost surprised not to hear Harold Wolfson mention it on CNN.

    Parent
    considering Obama's "blowout" win in NC (none / 0) (#123)
    by kempis on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:01:35 PM EST
    seemed to blast a hole in Hillary's momentum just a couple of weeks ago, this poll is truly fascinating.

    Any theories about what accounts for Obama winning NC by 15 points two weeks ago but now NC seems to prefer Hillary to McCain? I can see their prefering McCain to Obama, but this is really a shocker.

    Don't get me wrong: I'm glad to see it, just baffled.

    Parent

    He can't get women (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:52:46 PM EST
    and gets only the youngest age bracket.  He loses everyone over 35. He gets the AA vote and 31% of the white vote.  What has he been averaging on the white vote?  WV and KY are under 25%.

    NC just voted!  WTH happened?

    see Andgarden comment above (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:54:52 PM EST
    She has transformed herself into the populist candidate, I think it is about the economy.

    Parent
    Expanded The Voter Pool (none / 0) (#132)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:42:30 PM EST
    Clinton gets more Republicans, Democrats and Indies. ROTFLMAO

    Obama 12% R, 65% D, 41% I
    Clinton 13% R  74% D  46% I

    Clinton popular choice among Dems

    Clinton gets more men and beats McCain by 10 with women

    Obama 40% M 46% W
    Clinton 41% M 56% W

    Its the Women baby. What have we been telling everyone.

    Parent

    Why do you think (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:54:17 PM EST
    the folks on Faux News are always smiling?

    since I was born and raised in the great (5.00 / 3) (#34)
    by athyrio on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:54:38 PM EST
    state of North Carolina (many eons ago) I am not surprised at this result at all and I think you are seeing the results of Bill's mega campaigning during that primary....

    That's (5.00 / 2) (#77)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:09:18 PM EST
    what I think. The fact that Bill went on a front porch tour in NC really changed the numbers in NC for her. She certainly has a shot but Obama has no shot because he relies simply on turnout in dem strongholds.

    Parent
    Obama's 50-City strategy (none / 0) (#112)
    by Josey on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:32:09 PM EST


    Parent
    Hmm. The Edwards effect. (5.00 / 5) (#44)
    by oldpro on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:56:22 PM EST


    Perhaps (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by chrisvee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:03:06 PM EST
    he can endorse Obama again and we'll see if she gets another bump.

    Parent
    Edwards... (none / 0) (#65)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:05:06 PM EST
    What is his percentage tonight?

    Parent
    3% (none / 0) (#76)
    by chrisvee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:08:55 PM EST
    I think.

    Parent
    LOL (none / 0) (#105)
    by diplomatic on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:25:08 PM EST


    Parent
    God bless Republican Women!!!!! (5.00 / 8) (#45)
    by davnee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:56:50 PM EST
    Check out the gender gap on the numbers.  That's got to be Republican women at work.  I knew they were there just waiting to roar!!

    I think this could happen in a lot of states (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:59:28 PM EST


    Parent
    R women is why I believe in my bones (5.00 / 6) (#72)
    by davnee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:07:35 PM EST
    that HRC should be the nominee.  I really think she'll romp.  She's successfully anointed herself the populist, to seal the working class including working class men, and she's got, I think, the Bush disaffection/identity politics vote from a sizable slice of R women.  That's an unbelievable combination.  When you couple that with the fact that, in truth, she is running as the more progressive candidate, why would anyone want to say no to her.

    Parent
    that's why (none / 0) (#114)
    by Josey on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:33:50 PM EST
    Obama first began calling for Hillary to GET OUT on Feb. 20 - before the women rose up!


    Parent
    Republican And Indie Women n/t (none / 0) (#133)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:44:09 PM EST


    Parent
    OMG! 9% defection rate of Democrats (5.00 / 4) (#78)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:09:24 PM EST
    Hillary get 9% more Democrats versus McCain than Obama. And this is in Obama's dream state. If that holds up across the country this will be a Reagan-style blowout for McCain.

    Wake-up Super-D's. This is exactly the situation you were created for.

    By the way (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by Steve M on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:09:48 PM EST
    is this a data point AGAINST the argument that if Hillary won a state like PA or OH by a big margin, she is more likely to win it in the general?

    Not really (5.00 / 2) (#97)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:18:12 PM EST
    because it comes down to the question of whose coalition is more likely to not vote for the Democrat in November. That's Hillary's.

    Parent
    Look at this (5.00 / 1) (#81)
    by ajain on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:10:09 PM EST
    So much for changing the map and getting Virginia in the fall.

    Link


    While there is plenty of speculation that a Barack Obama candidacy would turn usually reliably Republican Virginia into a presidential battleground, a poll released today by Virginia Commonwealth University suggests presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain would start the general election campaign with a clear lead.

    The university's Commonwealth Poll found 44 percent of the state's registered voters prefer McCain against 36 percent who prefer Obama.

    Hillary Clinton does not fare any better. If she is nominated, 47 percent said they would vote for McCain, against 38 percent for Clinton.

    The poll is based on a survey of 852 registered voters contacted from May 12 through May 18. The margin of error is 4 percent.
    I believe this poll. (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:17:24 PM EST
    I think that neither of them can win VA. Obama might not break 40% and Hillary probably wouldn't go much over 40%.

    Parent
    I have said this all along. (none / 0) (#102)
    by masslib on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:23:22 PM EST


    Parent
    Same here; VA ain't turning blue this year (none / 0) (#124)
    by kempis on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:03:39 PM EST


    Parent
    Hey flyerhawk, let's just duke it out once . . . (5.00 / 1) (#87)
    by abfabdem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:12:01 PM EST
    and for all!

    I posted this on her speech thread and think it's a stellar idea!

    Just before Hillary spoke, Begala said, "and let the first be the last" and recommended Michigan and Florida re-vote after Puerto Rico!  Why not??  That would settle it once and for all and there could be no grousing from either side about a compromised compromise.  The Obama guys were complaining about the unfairness of the current vote totals so how could they complain about a re-do where all the votes counted?  The punishment would be that the states who sought to be first would be the very last to vote.  Imagine the publicity and voter turnout!  It would so energize an already energized Democratic electorate.  And we need those states in November!  We know there is money available to fund it.  It's the best idea I've heard on the situation.  Pass it on!!!!


    I'm fine with a revote (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:17:39 PM EST
    I don't think it will happen but I would be fine with it.  Obama would almost CERTAINLY do better in those states than the current results suggest even if he didn't win them.

    But it isn't going to matter probably.

    Parent

    Not sure about this. (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:23:39 PM EST
    Obama would almost CERTAINLY do better in those states than the current results suggest even if he didn't win them.

    Certainly not in Florida.  My friends have already backed off their support of him in MI.

    Hope, change and the unity pony have left the stable.

    Parent

    A lot of Repubs. in NC were ready (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by angie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:14:16 PM EST
    to vote for the Dem because of their feeling that Bush left them out to dry BUT not Hillary (CDS is strong here). It changed with Wright for Obama. Now, however, I think Hillary has really rehabbed her image with her "grit" (not to mention Bill's barnstorming). Heck, I've got my Republican boss thisclose to agreeing to vote for Hillary in the fall if she is the nominee. That said, when it comes down to it, the NC Republicans don't see McCain as "another Bush" here, and I doubt she can take it in the only poll that counts on election day.

    trying to tie Bush to McCain (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:31:42 PM EST
    is a delusional tactic.  I can hear all the fanboys giggling about it, but it's soooo not gonna happen.  No one in the real world buys it.  They know McCain and Bush have disagreed on so many things.  It's not a winning strategy in any sense of the term.

    Parent
    So tell me again why this needs to end in June? (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by dwmorris on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:17:54 PM EST
    Obama has not been tested by the Republican 527s and things are already looking grim. Hillary must be encouraged to stay in until the convention!

    I'm in Western NC and (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by ap in avl on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:25:05 PM EST
    I can tell you that Hillary's momentum here is only building as she soldiers on.  The hard work she, Bill and Chelsea put into this state will pay off in the GE.  They really touched quite a range of people in this state.  They were accessible and spoke to our hearts.  I am a bleeding heart liberal lesbian with an advanced degree and SHOCKINGLY (to MSM/Obamamaniacs) a huge Hillary supporter.  Even more shocking is the fact that eight members of my family and ten of their friends - all registered Republicans who have never voted for a Democrat - have told me that they will vote for Hillary in the GE if she is the nominee.  And they made that decision because they went to see her and/or her family in person and were impressed by what they saw and heard.  Obama barely showed up.  Don't be surprised by these poll numbers.  Seems to us here on the ground that they are very real.

    Obama is now unelectable (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by diplomatic on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:28:16 PM EST
    Clinton/Obama ticket is the only way.
    OMG! I love SUSA (none / 0) (#1)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:45:38 PM EST


    The McCain - Dems polls are sitll meaningless (none / 0) (#9)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:48:20 PM EST
    Fun to talk about but utterly meaningless.

    Right now Obama supporters are upbeat because he is winning.  Clinton supporters are angry because she are losing.  

    This is skewing the results.  60% of Clinton voters in KY said they wouldn't vote for Obama.  That number is neither surprising or likely to remain anywhere near that high.  

    But this is why the primary CANNOT go on until August.  Hillary supporters need time to heal their wounds.

    Sure they are meaningless (5.00 / 7) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:49:04 PM EST
    Everything is meaningless when you want it to be.

    Parent
    Nope (none / 0) (#47)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:57:02 PM EST
    They are just as meaningless when they favor Obama.  You guys don't about those polls though.

    Parent
    General election polls rarely favor Obama (5.00 / 2) (#51)
    by tigercourse on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:58:51 PM EST
    anymore.

    Parent
    Which is why (5.00 / 1) (#90)
    by Evie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:14:33 PM EST
    they are meaningless.

    QED

    Parent

    Because we're low-information voters? (5.00 / 1) (#85)
    by Lysis on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:11:45 PM EST
    Talk Left posts ALL of the polls, on the front page, regardless of who they favor.  Perhaps you aren't the person to be pointing the "you don't know" finger.

    Parent
    90% of what you just wrote (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:49:35 PM EST
    is absolutely irrelevant to this poll in North Carolina.

    Parent
    Right (none / 0) (#38)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:55:01 PM EST
    So Hillary loses among Democrats last week by 15 points.  THIS WEEK she is able to 15 points BETTER that Obama among all voters?

    2% undecided?  In May when the Dem nominee hasn't been decided yet?

    If you want to believe this poll, go for it.

    Parent

    Please tell me that you've never ever argued (5.00 / 4) (#52)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:58:58 PM EST
    that there is no relationship between a primary vote and the general election.

    Hillary's point about strength with working class votes is rock solid in this poll.

    Parent

    Feel free to explain (none / 0) (#64)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:04:30 PM EST
    how there is such a wild swing?

    Obama beats McCain among Democrats 65-28.  Clinton beats McCain among Democrats 74-17.  Yet Hillary just got her butt kicked by Democrats.  How does this make sense UNLESS the Clinton supporters are refusing to vote for Obama because they are upset Clinton is losing?

    Parent

    Um (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by andgarden on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:06:09 PM EST
    How does this make sense UNLESS the Clinton supporters are refusing to vote for Obama because they are upset Clinton is losing?

    As has been apparent in poll after poll, and state after state, Hillary brings more of the Democratic coalition to the general election. Let's get real: black Democrats always come home, and whites don't. I'm not making a value judgement, it's just true.

    Parent
    It has (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:12:00 PM EST
    nothing to do with Hillary and everything to do with Obama. Many people just don't see Obama qualified to be president, don't like the whole "movement" thing and don't know his stands on things because he dosen't tell you.

    Parent
    Just for tonight (none / 0) (#56)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:01:14 PM EST
    let us believe this poll without trying to cr*p all over our collective good mood.

    Parent
    Ok (5.00 / 2) (#71)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:06:50 PM EST
    I'm not trying to pee in your wheaties.  I'll leave this alone.

    Parent
    You are right, of course (5.00 / 10) (#20)
    by Kathy on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:50:26 PM EST
    she has to stop winning or else he'll lose.

    And, uh, sweetie?  Can we talk?  These wounds are not going to heal.  That is why Clinton must be the nominee.

    Parent

    Final paragraph: not "nice." (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by oculus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:52:16 PM EST


    Parent
    So true. (5.00 / 3) (#49)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:57:22 PM EST
    Hillary's campaign hasn't pissed off any voters.  Oh, there is faux outrage, but no one with a brain believes the racist smears leveled against her or her husband.

    Obama's?

    Oy.

    Parent

    i'm almost annoyed enough (5.00 / 2) (#73)
    by boredmpa on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:08:09 PM EST
    to re-appropriate the sexist terminology directed at clinton and direct it at the OFB/MSM.  

    I mean the nytimes says "Mrs." Clinton's supporters are po'd about a (perceived) "nagging series of slights"  That sentence floors me.  

    Anyway.

    If we have wounds that "need to heal," doesn't that mean that the O campaign and the MSM were the ones with the claws out?  I mean how can we have wounds unless they were nagging and slighting???

    Parent

    Why? (none / 0) (#42)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:56:11 PM EST
    Because you think that Obama supporters wouldn't be just as angry?

    Not a compelling argument.

    Parent

    A lot (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by chrisvee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:02:12 PM EST
    seem to want her as his VP, so how angry could they be?

    Parent
    Well (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:05:38 PM EST
    they just showed some exits in KY in which over 60% of Hillary voters said they will NOT vote for Obama in November.

    Parent
    same results on a zillion other polls (none / 0) (#117)
    by Josey on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:41:15 PM EST
    Obama hasn't figured out that voters don't like being called racists.
    Especially behind their backs.

    Parent
    The reason Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by Inky on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:11:34 PM EST
    does better in the GE is that Obama's supporters are reliable Democrats who would, by and large, vote for any Democrat in the GE. Hillary's supporters include a lot of people who are much more fickle with their votes. Exit polls show this over and over again, and the demographics of the two groups shows it as well. Why do you think that AAs, of all of Obama's key supporters, are the most keen to see Hillary as VP if Obama gets the nomination? They don't reaaly view Hillary or Bill as racist -- they just want to see Obama as president for very understandable reasons. Whether you want to admit it or not, Hillary supporters are much more likely than Obama supporters to walk the walk when it comes to their anger over their candidate's not winning the nomination.

    Parent
    Darling, (none / 0) (#92)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:17:19 PM EST
    You know, of course that you have this exactly backwards:

    Obama's supporters are reliable Democrats who would, by and large, vote for any Democrat in the GE. Hillary's supporters include a lot of people who are much more fickle with their votes.

    Parent

    Maybe I misspoke ... (none / 0) (#115)
    by Inky on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:35:18 PM EST
    You are right that Hillary has won more votes among registered Democrats. But she also wins more votes from what was once known as Reagan Democrats -- Catholics, blue collar voters, etc. -- as well as suburban women, Hispanics and others who are not wed to the Democratic party. Obama's core Democratic constituency -- AAs, upper-income Dems (latte liberals, or what ever you want to call them), and students  -- would never vote Republican, at least not in this election.

    So I was somewhat in error, but one thing is clear: exit polls show the Hillary's supporters are much less likely to support Obama than the other way around.

    Parent

    Why would you be (none / 0) (#55)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:00:04 PM EST
    angry to see a better candidate win?  She's got knowledge at her fingertips.  He'd hve to learn the job, and this after the Worst President Ever.

    I don't understand.  

    Parent

    I am not sure but last time I checked (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by bjorn on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:50:41 PM EST
    I didn't have any wounds.

    Parent
    Something you misunderstand (5.00 / 2) (#75)
    by Steve M on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:08:38 PM EST
    From reading blogs like this, it's possible to conclude that the people who say they won't vote for Obama are just a bunch of bitter Hillary supporters angry about the mistreatment of their candidate.

    There's some truth to that, mind you.  And some of those people will come around and some won't.

    But there's a lot of Democrats out there who simply dislike Obama and his policies for reasons that have nothing to do with Hillary.  Some of them are conservative Democrats of the sort you are more likely to find in places like Kentucky.  And when I say conservative, I don't mean racist, I mean conservative.

    There are, of course, people who support Obama but wouldn't vote for Hillary.  I don't deny that.  But there's this blind spot where people fail to realize that not every Democrat pulls the D lever irrespective of the merits of the particular candidate.  They don't have any problems with Obama so they can't understand why any other Democrat would, either.

    Parent

    It all depends what (none / 0) (#99)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:21:08 PM EST
    would be thrown at Obama if he were the candidate.

    He's already been losing support.

    Parent

    Isn't that why we have primaries? (none / 0) (#109)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:29:41 PM EST
    35 million  people have voted to determine which one is more popular primarily among Democrats.  

    Parent
    Sure (none / 0) (#113)
    by Steve M on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:33:48 PM EST
    Just out of curiosity, what does that have to do with my post?  It seems amazingly nonresponsive.

    Parent
    Your comment (none / 0) (#129)
    by flyerhawk on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:44:23 PM EST
    was about which candidate appeals to the various Democratic groups.

    Parent
    Sigh (5.00 / 1) (#130)
    by Steve M on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:46:11 PM EST
    Why do I bother trying to communicate with you?

    Parent
    Better hope for a 100% recovery rate (none / 0) (#128)
    by aquarian on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:28:36 PM EST
    for healing the "wounds."  If even 25% of Senator Clinton's voters break for McCain, Senator Obama loses in November.  GE's are won by thousands of votes, not hundreds of thousands.

    Parent
    Pulling our leg BTD?!!!!!! (none / 0) (#11)
    by davnee on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:48:53 PM EST
    Seriously?

    That just sounds weird (none / 0) (#15)
    by ajain on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:49:24 PM EST
    I doubt this will hold up, but it really does belie Obama's "map-changing" argument.

    I like it (none / 0) (#19)
    by stillife on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:49:46 PM EST
    but I find it really hard to believe.

    This Poll doesn't take (none / 0) (#35)
    by FrankinTexas on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:54:46 PM EST
    into account the anger in the Black community if Obama has the election stolen from him.

    i agree (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by oldnorthstate on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:56:18 PM EST
    and yes, the black community will most definitely feel that it would have been stolen.  i'd be shocked if there wasn't a huge drop off in the AA vote were this to happen.

    Parent
    Nah. (5.00 / 2) (#60)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:03:17 PM EST
    They voted for Bill.  She has the ability to win them over.

    He hasn't shown that he can win over the people that he'll need in November.  He's hiding from all us.

    Parent

    All votes must be counted (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:03:58 PM EST
    That's the first step toward making people feel that the nominee is legitimate. Uniting the party will be an equal challenge for whoever is the nominee, one I hope she (or he) takes seriously.

    Parent
    what verifiable proof do you have? (none / 0) (#101)
    by vicndabx on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:21:47 PM EST
    if that's what's reported day in day out, there may be some blacks who feel that way, but don't the vast majority will.

    Parent
    i don't have any "proof" (none / 0) (#118)
    by oldnorthstate on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:41:25 PM EST
    sorry, no dna or fingerprints.

    i do have the good fortune of living in a heavily populated african american city in north carolina and i saw what the city looked like the day after obama won the primary.

    i don't think saying that for many, it was one of the proudest days in their lives. having obama lose the nomination would be turn many off completely to politics.   many of these obama voters already don't trust the man, and having him lose now would slam that trust in the process closed.

    Parent

    I too live in a heavily populated (none / 0) (#120)
    by vicndabx on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:45:30 PM EST
    black city (NY,) and am black myself.  You're right, there are black folks who don't trust "the man," but the media could also be considered "the man."  Black people know the Clintons and I don't think they'll buy that she stole the election crap, cuz it won't be the truth.

    Parent
    interesting (none / 0) (#127)
    by oldnorthstate on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:28:27 PM EST
    the question then is, are the clintons considered "the man" or are they above that?  would that change if hillary got the nod?

    i don't know.  all i can give is my experiences.   it wasn't completely clear until the day AFTER election day and everywhere i turned i saw older african americans with their obama stickers, hats, shirts, and so on.  you could see the pride in their faces.   growing up in the south, it was an awesome sight, even if i didn't vote for barack.

    Parent

    Comments On The Black Agenda Report (none / 0) (#135)
    by MO Blue on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:58:13 PM EST
    indicate that many there consider Obama "the man" in the same way that they consider Hillary "the man."  Some feel since the are going to get "the man" either way, they want "the man" to be black.

    Parent
    Stolen? What is it exactly that you believe (5.00 / 5) (#58)
    by leis on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:02:13 PM EST
    will be stolen? The "math" works for neither. One of them will get the SD's to push them into nomination.  

    If being ahead in delegate count was all that mattered then what purpose do the SD's serve?  They can vote how ever they see fit. And the metric they use just might be electability in the GE.

    Parent

    When I mention Roe v. Wade, (none / 0) (#41)
    by oculus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:56:06 PM EST
    some yell "fear factor."  My reaction to your comment is similar.

    Parent
    Golly gee, (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by madamab on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:59:15 PM EST
    59% of AA's in WV wanted her on the ticket.

    Try citing some facts next time you attempt to fearmonger.

    Parent

    I think you are very quick to jump (none / 0) (#61)
    by oculus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:03:56 PM EST
    to conclusions.  As you know, the discussion of whether a vote for McCain or not voting at all for President will make any difference re SCOTUS nominations has been going on for quite some time here.  

    Parent
    I don't know what (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by pie on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:11:41 PM EST
    McCain would do, but I also don't know that Obama could beat him, nor do  know what he would do.

    So what's the diff?

    Maybe those supporting those two should think about it and be ready to fight a battle for once, if Roe were too be overturned.

     

    Parent

    Sorry, oculus... (none / 0) (#68)
    by madamab on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:05:59 PM EST
    that remark was not directed at you.

    Sometimes the "Reply to This" button has a mind of its own. ;-)

    Parent

    O.K. (I thought we had agreed to disagree.) (none / 0) (#70)
    by oculus on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:06:48 PM EST


    Parent
    We did and we do. (none / 0) (#74)
    by madamab on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:08:29 PM EST
    And I love your comments. :-)

    Parent
    I'm a rabid Hillary supporter (none / 0) (#126)
    by Nadai on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:13:48 PM EST
    (check my comments if you doubt) and I actually agree with this.  I wish I didn't.

    I think there's a major difference between black support for Hillary as VP to Obama's President and black support for Hillary as President instead of Obama.

    Parent

    i don't believe this for a second (none / 0) (#39)
    by oldnorthstate on Tue May 20, 2008 at 07:55:15 PM EST
    i don't think either candidate has a shot.  i don't think hillary does because north carolina does not like the clintons.  period.

    otherwise, we would have seen hillary make a real charge against obama, but let's face it, her voters didn't exactly charge to the polls.  this state was not a bill clinton state and it won't be an obama state, and probably wouldn't be a hillary state.

    but this poll is an interesting point that will be ignored with the supers.

    Get used to it (none / 0) (#88)
    by jb64 on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:12:46 PM EST
    That Ole Dukakis wing taking us down again...

    yep - the Kerry-Kennedy wing of losers (none / 0) (#119)
    by Josey on Tue May 20, 2008 at 08:44:33 PM EST


    Parent
    That is Stunning! (none / 0) (#125)
    by facta non verba on Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:11:41 PM EST
    Thanks for posting this!

    sorry, i don't buy this at all. (none / 0) (#134)
    by cpinva on Tue May 20, 2008 at 10:50:53 PM EST
    much as i would like to think it could be true, realistically, it isn't. sen. clinton would do better in NC than sen. obama, but neither would win.

    simply put, the demos in NC favor mccain: NC has a huge % of active and retired military, who will identify with the veteran mccain. while the triangle might go democratic, the rest of the state won't. that's just a harsh reality.

    Electability (none / 0) (#136)
    by bren on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:13:03 AM EST
    Also, many  republican women crossed over to vote for Hillary.  My guess is these women will vote McCain in November.  Obama seems to have problems with several big voting blocks.  The strange thing is, he doesn't act like he cares.  Obamas resistance to re-votes in Michigan and Florida only add to the problems. There is really no way to tell how the caucus states will vote given they typically do not represent the majority of voters in these states.  I'm not sure about North Carolina, but this guy is a huge risk in the fall.

    At least you now accept that NC is in play (none / 0) (#137)
    by jimotto on Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:57:47 AM EST
    There's half the battle.

    Electability NC Style | 137 comments (137 topical)

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