Do the SD's really realize how many core Dems have been turned off?  You always get a certain number of Dems voting Republican or not voting in any given election, but these are core Dems.  People I have known to vote in every election, and they're not.  They actually seem saddened by the fact that the Dems couldn't come up with candidate they could vote for.  

All I can think is that the DNC plans to lose this GE in hopes of drawing in new voters, and then these core Dems will come back in 2012, for whoever the nominee is then.  I also think they like his money.

I understand that Superdelegates have that power and that is the point of Supers in some way, but this is what she is expecting. Because Karl Rove told her she had a better chance in the General?

Or the other strategy is to spend the summer weakening Obama so the Supers HAVE TO SWITCH TO HER.

In its design, it's supposed to go through to the end to a convention, and at the convention is the only place where the votes count. Most people don't understand that all the counts that have already been-- all the contests that have already been held did not produce votes. They produced pledges, which probably would be lived up to at the convention.

I mean, why not appeal for Appalachian votes on precisely that basis to begin with?

And I am quite sick of hearing about this "coalition" of Hillary supporters planning on backing McCain.  I am 100% a Hillary supporter and I will never vote for McCain.  I don't even think it's us on the blogs that we need to worry about, if we're here and that passionate about politics then I do think most will come around.  Some may not vote but I doubt many will vote for McCain.  It is the so-called uneducated, white working class voters that we need to be worried about -- the ones trashed in the media and by Obama supporters -- the Reagan Democrats, or more aptly, the Clinton Democrats.

But then, so are most of your ratings and comments.  You're not fooling anyone here with your name.  

I guess I hope that the DNC seats MI and FL before the National Party selects the nominee, and that the SD's give HRC a real shot to make her case, factoring in both popular vote and electability.

But if you are for the rules, then MI and FL should be seated at 50%, the popular vote counts as is,the superdelegates get 100% vote and Obama should be awarded no delegates since he ran an ad in Florida markets and held a press conference.

Obama has been slumping since the Wright fiasco.  He's lost more than he has won.  He should get a boost out of OR, true, but PR and the FL/MI resolution still loom, which should favor Clinton.  And what happens if another scandal breaks?  He has not been carefully vetted thus far.  It is not that far fetched to think that damaging revelations may yet come.  Plus, he has already shown himself to be gaffe prone.  Take his latest tango on Iran.  At one campaign stop they are no big deal, overrated as a threat.  At another campaign stop Iran is the greatest threat of our time.  You think Republicans aren't going to break out the 2004 flip-flops in earnest?!  That and he, a nuke power guy, didn't know the big waste site when asked.  SD's may well be taking notes and thinking electability.

I like RCP's site, too, but Green Papers gives a better idea of how unsettled this is, with its "soft total" and "hard total" -- since, of course, there is no official site that keeps such tallies.  And both are less biased than media sites, also all over the place on this.

Because, of course, and as Jeralyn says, not only can super-dels change their minds to the last minute -- so can so-called "pledged" delegates, as we saw this week when it had the blessing of the Obama campaign.  

If they gave them full seating then the number is 2209.  Obama got about 70 delegates from Florida, Hillary got about 105.  So Obama would then be at about 2030 and Hillary would be at about 1948(105+70 from MI).

We would still have 55 unpledged delegates and 20 Edwards delegates.  The Edwards delegates are likely to swing towards Obama, a lot of them already did.  

Now most likely the 55 unpledged delegates would be given to Obama as that would be the only way MI could possibly be seated.  So Obama would then be at 2105 and Hillary would be at 1950.

Obama would likely get about 40 of the remaining delegates which would put him at 2145 and Hillary at 2000.  

With about 240 remaining SDs, Obama would need 70 remaining, or 29% of the remaining pool, to get the nomination.