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Horace Greeley Speaks: Dems Lead Over McCain/ GOP In NM

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:05:36 PM EST
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Go West Dems!

The latest Ras GE polling has both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton leading John McCain in New Mexico:

Obama 50
McCain 41

Clinton 47
McCain 41

Barack Obama will definitely defeat John McCain in New Mexico in November. Hillary Clinton can as well. Dem NM Senate candidate Tom Udall has a huge lead over his potential GOP opponents.

By Big Tent Democrat

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    Horace Greeley Speaks: Dems Lead Over McCain/ GOP In NM | 46 comments (46 topical)

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    Great. Let's nominate Hillary. (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by masslib on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:09:13 PM EST


    Also, please respond to this: (none / 0) (#2)
    by masslib on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:10:55 PM EST
    http://www.talkleft.com/comments/2008/5/17/133243/732/73#73

    Parent
    I do not insist that (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:19:32 PM EST
    It seems more likely now. But I would want the reverse ticket as well.

    Parent
    Well, then, let's not do the unity ticket. (5.00 / 0) (#35)
    by masslib on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:41:12 PM EST
    There's no excuse for nominating the weaker of the two to the top spot because he had the better caucus strategy.

    Parent
    Zing! (none / 0) (#42)
    by Cream City on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:08:25 PM EST
    I do so enjoy your way with words.:-)

    Parent
    Thanks. :) (none / 0) (#46)
    by masslib on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:29:40 PM EST


    Parent
    Rassmussen Had Obama Beating McCain (5.00 / 0) (#4)
    by MO Blue on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:17:21 PM EST
    in 4/8 poll 45% to 42%. SUSA Poll 4/13 had Obama losing to McCain 44% to 50%. Be interesting to see the next SUSA poll.

    They both do well (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by ajain on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:31:03 PM EST
    So Clinton can pick up Western states too. I thought that was not suppossed to be the case.

    Oh well, but he will win the expand the map and win 57 states. I know Hillary cant do that.

    You're right. HRC has never come up (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Shainzona on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:42:49 PM EST
    with any proposal to add 7 more states.  What have we been thinking....BO is awesome!  (Er, make that "not very bright.)

    Parent
    Obama electability: huge assumption (5.00 / 0) (#26)
    by Davidson on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:56:34 PM EST
    The man has simply not been vetted by the media let alone attacked by the GOP and yet we're assuming he'll do as fine as he's currently doing?  That's beyond naive.  Meanwhile Clinton has had everything thrown at her and she's still handily beating McCain.

    A must: Clinton at the top of the ticket.

    If the DNC continues to allow Obama to proclaim himself the nominee with no pushback there will be hell to pay during the GE.

    Does anyone think Obama will do better (5.00 / 0) (#32)
    by davnee on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:28:51 PM EST
    than he did in February?  Seriously.  I know he'll get something of a unity bounce out of the convention, but if he continues down this presumptuous path, my guess is it won't be nearly as big a bounce as it could be.  Then what?  The GOP hasn't even taken a good whack at him yet.  They are clearly waiting for HRC to exit stage left.  He's already cut and run away from working class white voters at warp speed like a scared squirrel afraid of becoming road kill.  Does anyone think he's going to really win these voters over in the GE campaign?  Latinos are a total wild card.  What possible reason does anyone have for projecting that he will reverse the downward trend his campaign has been on?  And if Oregon comes in close (we'll see) then that tells us he's even destabilized among the lattes.  What then?

    I know BTD believes in the West strategy, but there is no way he can flip some of these Western states without expending big resources.  And he's going to have to flip several to make it.  What will be left for securing the rest of the map?

    No (none / 0) (#39)
    by cmugirl on Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:51:53 PM EST
    Because:

    a) The Democratic convention is the week before Labor Day and, in many places, the week before school starts, so people will be on vacation;

    b) The Republicans have their convention the next week - it starts on Labor Day, but by the time McCain makies his acceptance speech, people will be  "in the swing of things" back in their "regular" schedules and paying attention;

    c) The "October surprise" that I predict is coming with relation to  foreign policy / national security; and

    d) I also believe you will see things like gas prices coming down starting in mid-September and Labor Dept numbers / economic numbers miraculously looking a little better

    Parent

    And we will go on orange alert (none / 0) (#43)
    by Cream City on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:11:15 PM EST
    from Homeland Security over something or other, and we all will be reminded who is the candidate with extensive military experience, etc., etc.

    Btw, I seem to remember that there never was a bounce for Kerry after the last convention -- I was getting into polling-junkie mode then (before I became a fullblown polling freek now) and recall all the talk of "where's the bounce?"  And, of course, it was a bad sign. . . .

    Parent

    I guess that's good news, (5.00 / 0) (#34)
    by eleanora on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:35:58 PM EST
    but wasn't Dukakis 18 points ahead nationally just weeks before he lost? I'm all for thinking positive, but this tight margin is more troubling than comforting to me no matter what the Dem ticket looks like. The last two presidential races in NM have been won and lost on a razor thin margin; 2008 looks like it's going to be the same.

    Guns and Hispanics might hurt Obama, (5.00 / 0) (#38)
    by Exeter on Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:41:17 PM EST
    but not Clinton in New Mexico and other places in the West.

    Mark Udall is CO, not NM (none / 0) (#3)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:11:05 PM EST
    but the same point is true!

    thanks, fixed (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:18:42 PM EST


    Parent
    I didn't know there was also (none / 0) (#11)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:27:34 PM EST
    a Udall in NM.  The west is crawling with 'em.  Good.  

    Parent
    BTD, do you have any idea why Obama (none / 0) (#7)
    by Teresa on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:20:28 PM EST
    is "accepting" the nomination in Iowa Tuesday rather than Oregon?

    Ah, New Mexico, my college state. I had such high hopes for them last time and they didn't pull through.

    Weird (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:22:31 PM EST
    Frankly, I am not understanding the Obama campaign this week.

    Parent
    Likely because a) that's where it all began for (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by tigercourse on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:23:10 PM EST
    him and b) he will win Oregon in the general but Iowa is a little less certain and he is hoping for a boost there.

    Parent
    Yeah - back to the womb (none / 0) (#10)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:26:02 PM EST
    so to speak.  It is his security blanket.  I'm sure there will be a speech about how it 'started here with a whisper'.

    Parent
    Dare I hope they are afraid of (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:30:08 PM EST
    losing in Oregon on Tuesday?  

    Naaaaaaaaa.....

    Parent

    Teresa, I was listening to something on the (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Anne on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:30:18 PM EST
    radio today that suggested that Obama has picked Iowa for his announcement (which will be that he has more than half the pledged delegates, not that he is the presumptive nominee - guess they are pulling back from counting those chickens) because Iowa is where it all started for him, with his first victory, and he's going to use it to effectively kick off his GE campaign against McCain.

    I worry about it a little, wondering who he will roll out - SD-wise - at the same time.

    Whatever, it is yet another ploy designed to mute what looks to be Clinton's upcoming big win in KY, and guarantee that she gets elbowed out of the coverage.  When I look at it from a pure political standpoint, it's pretty good, but it wouldn't be working without the full sheep-like cooperation of the media, which seem to think that if Obama's in front of a microphone, the entire country needs to see and hear him.  He could be cutting his toenails and dictating a grocery list and the Media Boyz and Girlz would be covering it with great breathlessness.

    As a Hillary supporter, I hate it.  

    Parent

    But... (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by Upstart Crow on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:36:43 PM EST
    I suspect the people of West Virginia noticed they were upstaged, and will remember it.  I suspect Kentuckyans will feel the same.  It's not just HRC who is being pushed aside -- it is the voters.

    With all due respect, BTD, I don't think these projections mean much.  Straight-line projections usually don't.  Between now and November, I think several scandals will break (I can think of a few on BHO's side), and both parties will be advertising and promoting in the meantime.  

    What's happening now is very little indication of what people will be doing and thinking in November.

    Parent

    Yes, even Poblano, die-hard Obama (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Teresa on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:40:10 PM EST
    supporter didn't like the "in your face" nature of Obama's campaign the day after WV. He said it was an unnecessary offense to the Clinton supporters. Now, they'll do the same to KY plus deprive Oregon of a victory speech if he wins there.

    I understand going to Iowa to kick off a GE campaign but shouldn't he wait until he actually wins first? If he takes all the coverage Tuesday, and you know he will, that just makes me mad. He's enjoying the knife in the back that he demonstrated for us after the PA debate a little too much.

    Parent

    I think its a great political move (none / 0) (#21)
    by ajain on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:45:16 PM EST
    Lets see what the Clinton camp can manage. If somehow, by a miracle, they either pull extremely close or upset him in Oregon and pull off a WV in Kentucky then I think it will blunt his "victory". But otherwise, its a pretty hard case to pull off/keep up.

    Parent
    Iowa Endorsement? (none / 0) (#31)
    by Ben Masel on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:19:59 PM EST
    Harkin's still not on record?

    Parent
    Here It Is In Black And White... (none / 0) (#40)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:53:04 PM EST
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080517/ap_on_el_pr/obama_finale

    Parent
    Accepting it from whom? (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Shainzona on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:41:30 PM EST
    I mean, is he really declaring it over and himself the winner on Tuesday night?

    Oh, please God, let him lose Kentucky and Oregon....please please please...I'll be the best person you ever have asked for....please please please.

    Parent

    As I understood it, from what I heard today, (5.00 / 0) (#25)
    by Anne on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:50:44 PM EST
    he is not crowning himself the nominee, he is announcing that he has more than half the pledged delegates - the number that does not include the SD's.

    He will no doubt also announce that no one who had more than half the pledged delegates has never not gotten the nomination, so...it's an Obama syllogism that works for him.

    I would love for him to lose Oregon - the juxtaposition of Obama in Iowa acting like a GE nominee, against the truth of a long losing streak, weakening numbers in crucial sectors, and falling behind in the popular vote, would be just too kabuki for words.

    Parent

    Oh, (5.00 / 0) (#28)
    by pie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:01:38 PM EST
    Well, big deal.  He's afraid to take it to the convention, and this certainly doesn't help with his "electability."

    Parent
    I just ot an email from Brazile. (5.00 / 0) (#29)
    by pie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:04:00 PM EST
    She's representing the DCCC and asking for donations that would enter the donor into a contest for a trip to Denver.

    Dorry, sweetie.  Anything promoted by you is a no-go.

    Parent

    Obama holding the party hostage (5.00 / 0) (#30)
    by Davidson on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:05:31 PM EST
    He will no doubt also announce that no one who had more than half the pledged delegates has never not gotten the nomination, so..

    The Democratic Party needs to push back on him hard--now.  This contest is unlike any other and the whole point of superdelegates is to pick the strongest GE candidate, to maximize our chances of winning in November, not hope we win with an extremely weak GE candidate.*  Besides, never before has a nominee "won" by disenfranchising two critical GE states.

    *Even with Clinton as VP, she can't cover for Obama's fatal GE flaws, especially his house of cards depending on fawning media coverage and no GOP attack.

    Parent

    What?!!! (5.00 / 0) (#27)
    by pie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:59:04 PM EST
    Unbelievable.  This really pisses me off.  It may be a tactic to get the rest of the delegates on board, but if I were one, I'd be less inclined to support him, especially with his negatives.

    Parent
    He's (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:28:53 PM EST
    actually going to do it? This is completely stupid. Oh, well, welcome John McCain to the presidency.

    Parent
    I hate to say this (none / 0) (#41)
    by cmugirl on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:01:02 PM EST
    But after this campaign and the way Obama and his camp have been acting....I almost welcome it.

    Parent
    I will be voting... (none / 0) (#45)
    by AX10 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:36:09 PM EST
    for McCain if Obama is the nominee.  

    Parent
    He is (5.00 / 0) (#36)
    by OldCoastie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:47:21 PM EST
    announcing his "victory" in the "place it all began"!

    ugh.

    Parent

    Kenya ?? (5.00 / 0) (#37)
    by Rhouse on Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:01:20 PM EST


    Parent
    No, smoke-filled back room (none / 0) (#44)
    by Cream City on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:15:57 PM EST
    in Chicago or Boston.  

    I really find it fascinating that he is not doing this in Chicago -- because he is getting killed in rural areas so doesn't want to remind them that he's a big-city guy, a yuppie intellectual law prof, etc.

    It's hysterical, as he is so metro that even if he put on overalls, he'd still be wearing the tie.

    And the shiny new flag pin, of course.

    Parent

    ROTFLMAO n/t (none / 0) (#47)
    by MO Blue on Sun May 18, 2008 at 08:18:34 AM EST


    Parent
    2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll (none / 0) (#18)
    by votenic on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:41:44 PM EST
    Wow. The election is really heating up now. But, you won't believe these poll results!

    http://www.votenic.com

    Wow - so scientific and projectable! (none / 0) (#20)
    by Shainzona on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:43:55 PM EST
    What a stupid web site.

    Parent
    Pop vote (none / 0) (#23)
    by Jlvngstn on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:46:31 PM EST
    should decide who gets the nod and I think we are going to win more states than projected, working on my analysis this weekend. The problem i am having of late is that the pop vote will swing heavily in favor of HIllary the next two weeks and the Illinois win of 600k is almost a throw out (we can throw out NY too to make it even) that said, Hillary has a much stronger argument and Obama going to Iowa is "forcing the issue" without the big picture. I still feel better with Obama as the nominee but the vote forecasts are have me scratching my head over Obama's actions. He has not stood up and made a case for mI AND FL and I want some leadership here.... Is that reasonable BTD or are we "depriving" my home state voters?

    See my latest on FL (none / 0) (#24)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:49:07 PM EST


    Parent
    Horace Greeley Speaks: Dems Lead Over McCain/ GOP In NM | 46 comments (46 topical)

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