Another Electability Argument Regarding Caucuses
Posted on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:58:49 PM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, 2008 (all tags)
It's generally recognized that caucus results are less representative of a state's voters than primary results. Their curtailed voting hours and the lack of early voting, absentee or mail-in voting ensures it. But they count for choosing pledged delegates, so that's water under the bridge.
When it comes to electability arguments for the superdelegates, however, I think there's something they need to consider -- that caucus results vastly undercount one particular segment of voters who will vote in big numbers in the general election: The elderly and infirm, including nursing home residents who weren't mobile enough to attend a caucus but who can vote by absentee ballot in primaries and the general election.
If unable to attend caucuses, and most likely were, their preferences were excluded. This is one more reason I don't think that a superdelegate can equate a caucus win in a particular state with a win in that state against John McCain in November.
The Democratic party needs older voters this year more than ever against John McCain. And they have been coming out in primaries for Hillary. Statistics on our 37 million residents over age 65, 1.9 million of whom live in nursing homes, are below:
America's population over age 65:
In 2006, 37 million people age 65 and over lived in the United States, accounting for just over 12 percent of the total population. Over the 20th century, the older population grew from 3 million to 37 million. The oldest-old population (those age 85 and over) grew from just over 100,000 in 1900 to 5.3 million in 2006.
The states with the largest elderly populations:
In 2006, Florida had the highest proportion of people age 65 and over, 17 percent. Pennsylvania and West Virginia also had high proportions, over 15 percent.
As to gender:
In 2006, women accounted for 58 percent of the population age 65 and over and for 68 percent of the population age 85 and over.
By race:
In 2006, non-Hispanic whites accounted for 81 percent of the U.S. older population. Blacks made up 9 percent, Asians made up 3 percent, and Hispanics (of any race) accounted for 6 percent of the older population.
On to the statistics for nursing home residents:
In 2006, 1.9 million people lived in nursing homes.
The Census Bureau reports:- Females comprised approximately half of the total population, but were nearly 70 percent of the nursing facility population.
- Nearly three-in-four residents of nursing facilities were 75 or older. The median age of nursing facility residents was 83.2.
There's been a big difference this year in results from the three states that have held both primaries and caucuses.
- Nebraska: Obama won the caucuses. He got 26,000 attendees to Hillary's 12,000. In yesterday's primary, the vote was Obama 46,000 to Hillary 43,000, or 49% to 47%. One explanation for the sharp decline in support is buyer's remorse. Another, more probable explanation is that the caucuses were unrepresentative of the state's voters.
- Washington: Obama won the caucuses with 21,000 preferring Obama to 10,000 preferring Hillary, but in the primary held two weeks later, he only won 51% to 46%, 353,000 votes to 315,000 votes. Only the caucus votes were used to determine delegates.
- In Texas: Hillary won the primary vote 51% to 47% and by more than 100,000 votes, while Obama won the caucuses, perhaps by as much as 60% to 40%.
The elderly clearly aren't the only group under-represented at caucuses, but they are a somewhat quantifiable one. I attended caucuses in Iowa and Colorado. I saw only a smattering of people who seemed to be over 70 and none looked to me to be in their 80's. I spend every weekend at a nursing home visiting my mother, and almost without exception, the TV's in the residents' rooms are blaring CNN. (Their cable doesn't get Fox or MSNBC). These voters will vote, in person or by absentee or mail-in ballot.
My point: When superdelegates consider electability against John McCain in November, Barack Obama's caucus wins should be among the least important factors. The results are skewed and not representative of the state's total voting population.
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