home

What Obama Needs To Do To Win In November

Barack Obama is almost certainly going to be the Democratic Presidential nominee. The Superdelegates will decree it. Of course Hillary Clinton has every right, indeed, she has an imperative, to continue. But it is my view that Obama will be the nominee. As such, he needs to think about what he needs to do to improve his chance of winning in November.

This is a Democratic year. The Dem nominee SHOULD win November. But there are some danger signs for Obama. I will concentrate on 3 in this post.

1. Unify the Party. I think this is the easiest task, if there are grownups in the Obama camp. The answer is simple. Pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate. Problem solved. It is a no brainer. Only Clinton haters can argue against this. Imagine for a second, two candidates running for President having such a tight race and the winner NOT picking the second place finisher? It is unthinkable. It should be unthinkable here.

More . . .

2. Break the narrative that Obama can not connect with white working class voters and does not care about them. In essence, Obama has to stiff arm the Creative Class on this issue. He has to play the game and take some lessons from Bill Clinton. And he needs to focus on this now. Change was a lovely opening act for Barack Obama. But now it is time for Act 2. Obama must move beyond the pretty slogans about change. He must find a way to reach out to Clinton Democrats and convince them that he cares for them and that he will fight for them. BTW, picking Hillary Clinton as his running mate helps in this as well.

3. Obama needs to be out front in fixing the Florida/Michigan problem. He needs to completely reject the silliness that Donna Brazile spouts on a daily basis. He can not stand against the voters of Florida and Michigan by droning on about the RULZ as Brazile does in her desperate cling to her DNC fiefdom. Obama needs to throw Donna Brazile under the bus. And he needs to do it soon. The goodwill he can reap from this in both states is important.

Of course Obama can choose to do none of these things and still win in November. The political climate is just that good for Democrats. But why take the chance? Besides, not only is doing these things the political smart play, they happen to be the right thing to do. So tell me, are there any grownups in the Obama camp?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

< Saying No to Voter ID Laws | DNCC Chooses First Group of Credentialed Bloggers >
  • Premium Ads

  • Blog Ads

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

    donate to TalkLeft


  • Display: Sort:
    Obama's campaign will do ZERO of those (5.00 / 5) (#1)
    by rooge04 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:39:49 AM EST
    3.  They will NOT offer VP to Hillary (and I don't think she should accept 2nd place to a less qualified MAN). They will NOT address the white working-class problem. They will NOT resolve MI and FL.  

    But you are totally right in one thing BTD.  The supers will give him the nomination no doubt.  There's no way that HRC will get in the way of that long thought-out plan.

    And he can't fix Fla and Michigan (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by andrys on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:59:46 AM EST
    because the latest numbers show that he could well lose the delegate count that way now.  The team always did good projections (except for Indiana and WVa) and knew they could not go for voters' rights there vs arbitrary rules that could be modified (according to those rules).

    - Andrys


    [ Parent ]
    Sorry, he'd lose the popular vote that way. (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by andrys on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:00:25 PM EST
    Fla/Mich allowed in per voting

    - Andrys


    [ Parent ]
    Obama will accept the delegate slates put forward (none / 0) (#235)
    by jimotto on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:18:41 PM EST
    by each state.  That is guaranteed.  As evidenced by it's acceptance of the proposal of the 69-59 slate offered by Michigan (which was shot down by the Clinton campaign, by the way).  

    [ Parent ]
    Here Is His Big Plan For MI....He Will Need (none / 0) (#250)
    by PssttCmere08 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:37:07 PM EST
    to do more than just throw money at their problems.  And please notice the crowd he spoke to was only 200...think people aren't feeling him...just my opinion.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080514/ap_on_el_pr/obama

    [ Parent ]

    LOL (none / 0) (#79)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:11:01 PM EST
    WHEN OH WHEN has the presidency EVER been about who is the most qualified?????

    Seriously.

    If she wants to be the president (and she sure seems to) she should accept VP. It's a guaranteed nomination in 2016.

    [ Parent ]

    It is (none / 0) (#105)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:16:20 PM EST
    about qualifications if you have the serious problems we have going on today. Voters won't hand over the country to an unqualified individual who they think will make things worse.

    It's Bushian to put the less qualified on the bottom too.

    [ Parent ]

    That (none / 0) (#108)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:17:00 PM EST
    should be it's Bushian to put the less qualified candidate on the top of the ticket.

    [ Parent ]
    A. Obama is not anywhere near (none / 0) (#138)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:25:00 PM EST
    the idiot that Bush is. He actually worked for his position in life. Bush did not.

    B. I was responding to the commenter's assertion that Hil should not take VP to a less qualified POTUS.

    C. If Hil doesn't get the nomination this time, then her last chance may be in 2016. How bad do you think she wants to be president? Bad enough to wait 8 years? My take is definitely! My take is imagine the footprint we can make with the two of them in office for 16 years!!!

    [ Parent ]

    He'd have her banned from meetings (none / 0) (#176)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:36:33 PM EST
    in the first year of his term. His ego would never allow him to have a smarter person that close.

    [ Parent ]
    Wow (none / 0) (#201)
    by squeaky on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:51:02 PM EST
    That is quite the projection. Any basis for that other than your feeling like a jilted lover?

    [ Parent ]
    And you know this, HOW???? (none / 0) (#221)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:04:22 PM EST
    Because you really really love Hil and really really don't like Obama?

    [ Parent ]
    He actually worked for his position in life. (none / 0) (#228)
    by owenaprhys on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:09:47 PM EST
    WHEN????

    [ Parent ]
    all his life. (none / 0) (#232)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:13:11 PM EST
    He had no daddy (like Bush) to get him into Yale, he came from a modest background. He is no legacy.

    There is no comparing his character with Bush's.

    He is as up to the preseidency as anyone.

    [ Parent ]

    Do (none / 0) (#269)
    by sas on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:52:41 PM EST
    not agree that he is up to the Presidency.

    [ Parent ]
    Do not care (none / 0) (#280)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:08:55 PM EST
    why should I, seeing as your reasons for believeing so must be top secret?

    [ Parent ]
    Emotion Aside (none / 0) (#199)
    by squeaky on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:48:41 PM EST
    If it is possible. There are no objective qualifications for POTUS other than the legal ones. It seems a silly argument to me because the things that are presented as qualifiers, by either fanclub, fall apart when you use the same qualifiers as a basis to evaluate how past Presidents have performed. Reading tea leaves are a better if not equal indicator.

    All the arguments that one candidate is somehow more qualified than the other is based on emotion, and baseless opinion. Certainly ones age, length of time in government, having children, living abroad, being a woman, being a black and male, getting a PHD, being a lawyer, being married, writing policy, writing books, etc, tells us NOTHING about what would make for a better POTUS.

    Unfortunately there is no test other than the job itself.


    [ Parent ]

    I don't think it's based on emotion (none / 0) (#214)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:58:23 PM EST
    That seems pejorative to me.  How about saying it's based on intuition or judgment? Many of the things you mention do tell us something about how the person will do as POTUS, but of course there are also intangibles. I've hired many people for positions where a college degree was required, for example, but once people passed that hurdle, there were still many other factors and intangibles that influenced whether I thought they would be successful at the job.

    Just because we cannot identify a complete set of factors does not mean that we cannot make a judgment about a candidate's likely performance in the job. If it's really a c**p shoot, elect me.


    [ Parent ]

    It Is Pejorative (none / 0) (#270)
    by squeaky on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:53:36 PM EST
    Because if you want to be an honest broker when talking about qualifications you need to examine presidential history and compare how past presidents performed using the same basis as you use to compare Hillary to Obama.

    Unfortunately the argument falls on its face because based historical presidential performance none of your "qualifications" are indicators.

    It is an empty talking point.

    [ Parent ]

    no my basis (none / 0) (#219)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:03:10 PM EST
    for qualifications would have to be at least being reelected to federal office. Obama hasn't met that qualification.

    He's spent 143 days or so in the senate and 28 months in the IL senate. He seems to have assorted other part time jobs, exactly what I don't know besides being a community organizer.

    [ Parent ]

    convenient specifications (none / 0) (#233)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:14:19 PM EST
    for your particular candidate.

    [ Parent ]
    That's at (none / 0) (#243)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:23:44 PM EST
    a minimum. She barely meets the qualification hump. Obama doesn't meet it at all.

    [ Parent ]
    Like I said (none / 0) (#248)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:34:24 PM EST
    how convienient.

    [ Parent ]
    Dead wrong; (none / 0) (#245)
    by magnetics on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:27:41 PM EST
    I knew Shrub would be a disaster and I was right.  

    I knew the same about Reagan, and (you may not agree, but) history does and will continue to prove me right.  How about Reagan's (virtually) first act in office?  He took down the solar panel Carter had had installed on the WH.

    The nomination process is an audition, however flawed, for the presidency.   Reagan showed his colors off the bat by announcing in Philadelphia, Mississippi, home of racists and murderers of Voting Rights activists.

    I started out for Edwards, but when he dropped, I switched to HRC on the basis of experience.  Over time I have come to like her better, and Obama less.  Why?  She has rolled up her sleeves, fought the punditry, and defied expectations; while he has embraced Republican talking points (limited health care coverage, Harry and Louise adverts, tort reform, Social Security overhaul etc. etc.) and has played a game of media expectations -- I am sorry to have to say this, but the business of creating a victory narrative, annointing oneself the inevitable winner before the votes come in, is straight from the playbook of Karl Rove.  I'm not complaing -- it's his right to campaign how he sees fit -- but it doesn't make me think the better of him.

    [ Parent ]

    She started the "victory narrative" (none / 0) (#251)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:39:39 PM EST
    she was inevitable...don't you remember?

    Jesus. People in blogland, whatever side you are on...take a step back. Wherever I go on political blogs people's eyes are clouded by this race. It is really truely frightening.

    I don't really have a side in this....I am for winning in November. Because of this, when I come here and when I go to dKos alike I am constantly shocked at how blind people are to any facts that don't mesh with their particular candidate.

    can I just say "aaaarrrggghhhh!!!!" ?

    [ Parent ]

    This ain't Dkos by a long country mile. (none / 0) (#266)
    by magnetics on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:43:51 PM EST
    I stepped away from Big Orange months ago.

    I am also for winning in November; and I'm for who I think has the better shot.

    I said my views have evolved over time.  If the HRC camp invoked the inevitability meme, it was before Superduper Tuesday; and they never invited Obama to leave the race.

    Also, there is the issue of Fl and MI.  I am against voter suppression-alienation, and if people argue it's because of rules, well my reply is, the rules must change.  In fact, no one (not Donna Brazile. certainly) seems able to give a coherent account of the rules.  My bottom line: seating MI and FL after the fact will cost the Dems hugely in November.  Remember, we all want to win.

    I think it's pretty clear that Obama and his supporters have been a major obstacle to seating these delegations, which is one of the reasons I'm for Hillary.  We can't afford to alienate the voters in such important states -- particularly FL which is arguably (demonstrably?) the most important swing state.

    [ Parent ]

    It's getting closer to dKosland (none / 0) (#279)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:06:55 PM EST
    believe me. I have taken breaks from blogs and now I come back to both and am noticing many similarities.

    [ Parent ]
    Hilarious (none / 0) (#262)
    by squeaky on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:31:23 PM EST
    Great intuition, that you knew Reagan and Bush would be terrible. You must have some special talent....

    I would never have guessed that they would not have been good Democrats by their campaign rhetoric, voting record and policies.

    [ Parent ]

    Glad you are easily amused; (none / 0) (#281)
    by magnetics on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:54:30 PM EST
    usually I play tougher rooms.

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks (none / 0) (#282)
    by squeaky on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:06:31 PM EST
    I try to keep amused. I agree with most of what you have to say. I voted Hillary because I thought she would be stronger in November. Now I think that they are equal against McCain. On a personal level I like Hillary's style more, although policy wise they both seem pretty much the same and more to the right than I would like.

    Not sure about Rove's playbook though, it seems that Obama is just tooting his own horn to show that he is a fighting contender.

    [ Parent ]

    Fair enough; I'll drink to that. (none / 0) (#284)
    by magnetics on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:35:35 PM EST
    For the record, I am not blind to Hillary's faults; and though I like her on some policy issues, I have never gotten over thinking that she is still tarred with the brush of NAFTA in Bill's administration, which I still see as a disaster for American workers, let the pundits spin it how they will.

    [ Parent ]
    Cheers! (none / 0) (#285)
    by squeaky on Thu May 15, 2008 at 12:35:00 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    thank you squeak (none / 0) (#252)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:42:10 PM EST
    you are sounding sane

    [ Parent ]
    This time or next. . . (none / 0) (#172)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:35:19 PM EST
    for Clinton, but not 2016.  She'll be 68 then.  Given the degree to which she's been criticized on personal issues I think running as a elderly woman would (unfortunately) be completely insurmountable.

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree (none / 0) (#227)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:09:31 PM EST
    she ages very well, and she would have 8 years of VP under her belt.

    She would be unstoppable, and besides, by then America would have those 8 years to get over the fact that she has ovaries and not testicles.

    IOW, America will be different after 8 years of Obama and Clinton.

    [ Parent ]

    68 (none / 0) (#272)
    by sas on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:54:47 PM EST
    is not elderly by any means.  

    [ Parent ]
    Please explain (none / 0) (#257)
    by cmugirl on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:53:39 PM EST
    1. He won't beat McCain.  Why should she hook herself to a loser?

    2. If he miraculously beats McCain, why do you assume he'll be around for 8 years?  Many of us think he'd be an utter disaster - so bad, in fact, that there will be a Republican sweep in 2012.

    3. 2016?? You think a WOMAN who will be 68 will get elected?? As it is, we hear about her laugh, her thick ankles, her pantsuits, etc.  You think with 8 more years worth of wear and tear, that's going to change?


    [ Parent ]
    well (5.00 / 1) (#273)
    by sas on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:56:28 PM EST
    well, well

    Ageism and sexism all rolled ito one post.

    Yes to woman
    yes to 68

    [ Parent ]

    answers: (none / 0) (#258)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:04:04 PM EST
    #1 yes he will
    #2 he will win again

    See, I can make unsupported assertions too!

    #3 refer to me earlier post...and read it this time. That WOMAN with her pantsuits and her bad-boy hubby seems to be kicking ass currenlty. In 8 years her body and clothes will have been vetted, AND as VP, we would have watched her get older.

    She will look a hell of a lot better that Thatcher, and women live longer anyhow.

    [ Parent ]

    the base or everyone else? (none / 0) (#263)
    by diogenes on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:32:06 PM EST
    Giving Hillary the VP might appease the base, but how will it play to the rest of America (the woman has 54% negatives, after all).  Seems like you use the VP to REACH BEYOND YOUR BASE.  People pretend that Hillary appeals to white working class guys, but this is only in comparison to Obama.  Pick Virginia's governor if you really want to reach to that group.

    [ Parent ]
    Question: (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by lilburro on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:44:00 AM EST
    how do you think he goes about getting Hillary on the ticket?  Is the media going to buzz about it for a month?  Will it happen in August?  Will it happen in secret, or will it be like a wedding of the Dems?  I guess the key is for Obama and his supporters to be as gracious as possible until the primaries are over.  Which IMO rules out the May 20th party which seems like perfect fodder for Clinton to criticize.

    If Clinton wins the popular vote I expect her to stay in until the convention.

    She Might Agree to Be VP Before the Convention (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:04:13 PM EST
    If she doesn't have the votes to be the nominee now and would lose to Obama, there's some logic in her agreeing to be VP.  She shows she cares more about the party than herself.  And I'd say given the way Obama has been shedding support the last two months, there's a decent chance he's roadkill by August.  If she has so many delegates and is the presumptive VP nominee, an Obama collapse would almost certainly make her the new nominee.  Of course, she lessens the chance he will collapse if she takes the VP slot.

    [ Parent ]
    She doesn't have to accept VP (none / 0) (#116)
    by felizarte on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:18:40 PM EST
    until the delegates (pledged/supers) vote in the convention floor.  If she loses, then Obama can ask her (if he wants to or is pressured by the party)  and she may or may not accept it.  Certainly Barack has made it difficult to accept. I am hoping that she would choose to remain in the Senate.  Being VP for a woman has been accomplished by Geraldine Ferraro.  There will be no synergy with these two in a ticket.

    [ Parent ]
    I expect her to stay in (none / 0) (#6)
    by cannondaddy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:46:30 AM EST
    even if she loses the popular vote and all the supers have already declared for Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    And I expect that Obama (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by rooge04 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:48:42 AM EST
    and his supporters will never show the graciousness and lack of arrogance needed to do any of them.

    [ Parent ]
    I expect no one (none / 0) (#274)
    by cannondaddy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:02:58 PM EST
    could show you enough graciousness to make you happy with anyone other than Hillary.  I think she stays in till the convention.  She does this so that if Obama losses, she will always be able to say she never quit fighting.  I don't assume she'll automatically run in 2012, but she'll be better positioned if she takes it all the way.

    [ Parent ]
    I expect her to stay in (none / 0) (#12)
    by Capt Howdy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:49:54 AM EST
    until some accommodation is made for FL and MI.

    [ Parent ]
    I expect her to stay in (none / 0) (#183)
    by JavaCityPal on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:39:07 PM EST
    until the votes are cast at the convention. It's how this process was designed, and I won't let the media pundits convince me otherwise.

    No one wins this simply because they are ahead in the quest for 2209 delegate votes.

    [ Parent ]

    if it's in secret (none / 0) (#256)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:50:22 PM EST
    it's more like an elopement.

    [ Parent ]
    Ack...that is a sausage-making (none / 0) (#259)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:04:34 PM EST
    question!

    [ Parent ]
    I think all of this is more difficult (5.00 / 5) (#3)
    by andgarden on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:44:52 AM EST
    than you say.

    We shall see.

    It's Been Made More Difficult (5.00 / 16) (#34)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:58:14 AM EST
    Obama has made decisions all along that makes all three of these things virtually impossible for him to do.  

    1.  By leveraging misogyny and Clinton hatred, he's made it more difficult to offer Clinton the VP slot and more difficult for her in the VP slot to do him any good.  Personally, I kind of resent the idea that even though Obama is severely weakened, the Democrats will nominate him anyway and then simply put Hillary on the ticket so she and Bill can carry him across the finish line in November. It might work and it might be good politics, but it still sucks, particularly given the deafening silence of the Democratic Party leaders to the onslaught of misogyny against Clinton.  She's not good enough to defend from that, but she's good enough to help their man in November.  

    2.  Reaching out to white working class voters, let's see now, Obama has called them bitter and claim they cling to racism, his campaign strategist has said Obama doesn't need them to win, and he's blown off appearing in West Virginia and Kentucky.  Now, he's going to try to win them over?  Yeah, that won't come off as false or condescending.

    3. Florida/Michigan - Obama has dragged his heels every step of the way, going so far to schedule a Mission Accomplished announcement on May 20 at 2025 even though he knows the DNC is likely to decide FL/MI on May 31 and that has a good chance of changing the magic number.

    All of your ideas, BTD, are good ones.  It's just that Obama has shown no interest in doing a single one of them.  There are two potential explanations for this: 1) Arrogance, or 2) He's not as confident he's going to be the nominee as it appears and so can't give up any potential edge in the nominating contest regardless of whether it would help him in the GE.  Or both.

    [ Parent ]
    Given the state of this race (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by andgarden on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:03:22 PM EST
    it is almost unbelievable to me that Clinton won't be the nominee.
    But the nature of our rules makes Obama's nomination essentially inevitable, so we go forward. . .

    [ Parent ]
    Watching her last night (5.00 / 1) (#88)
    by ruffian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:12:37 PM EST
    made it all the more unbelievable.  

     The only conclusion I can come to is that actual qualification to be president is around 100th on the list of what some (too many) people look for in a candidate.

    But yes, we go forward.  

    [ Parent ]

    It's not the rules. The rules don't (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by derridog on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:29:17 PM EST
    demand this. The Superdelegates were put in to decide the election based upon determining the best candidate.  The MSM is making up their own rules. I just read today in my local newspaper that Obama will "win" as soon as he has 2025 delegates which will happen "soon."  Hillary has "no chance."  The election is WVA is "largely symbolic" and so on.

    This is, as Riverdaughter says, a "Haka" meant to mislead and frighten us unbelievers into submission.  None of this is true. The Fla/Mi delegate problem could have been solved long ago.  There are forces at work here who don't want the Clintons to win because they will do something about the corruption of our democracy.  

    I hope Clinton does NOT run with Obama.  I would be sad that she felt she had to demean herself in that way and it would make no difference to my vote. I intend to vote for McCain to save the Democratic party from being taken over by the corrupt corporate thugs who control our media.

     Whatever I think about McCain's policies, I also believe he has the good of the country at heart.  I do not believe that about Obama.   I will vote for Dems downticket and hope that the "leadership" gets the message when their candidate goes down in flames.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm with you. (none / 0) (#216)
    by AX10 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:00:18 PM EST
    It is sad to see McCain have to pander to the right wing.  If Obama is the Dems nominee, he doesn't have to do this.  He can be more moderate and would then win against Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not the rules... (none / 0) (#90)
    by oldpro on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:12:51 PM EST
    It's fear.

    Fear of Jesse Jr.'s threats...fear of AA backlash...fear of 'riots in the streets' if the nomination is 'taken away' from the entitled one.

    Threats and intimidation.

    Fear.  Pure and simple.

    Thanks, Teddy.

    Great legacy.

    [ Parent ]

    Fear and Loathing (5.00 / 1) (#173)
    by Athena on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:36:04 PM EST
    The MSM made Obama an heir, not a candidate, early in the nominating process.  All of the entitlement was bestowed on him - lavish attention despite no accomplishments, outright swooning by pundits, dismissal of all who interrupted his path.

    I don't get how Obama could be "entitled" to the nomination when he made damn sure that 2 critical states would excluded in the final tally (not counting and no revote).

    But the undertone of threat and intimidation is real, and explains much of the irrationality in the party.

    Are we all supposed to pretend that Obama is a better electoral gamble than Hillary - just so no one is offended?

    [ Parent ]

    I'm In The Same Place (none / 0) (#92)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:13:18 PM EST
    If this was February, I'd totally understand why the party was nominating Obama.  I wouldn't be happy about it, but I would understand and accept it.

    Now, it just seems like another example of how pathetic the democratic leadership is.  They are going to allow themselves to be bullied into nominating him even though he is clearly on a downward trajectory and Clinton is on an upward trajectory.  Either they have become so entrenched in their own power they're willing to risk November or they are so waek they are willing to let the media push him across the finish line.  For me, it makes me question whether the Democratic Party is salvagable or whether we might not be better off figuring out how to split the party in a way that creates a better alternative.    

    [ Parent ]

    The best answer would be to right (none / 0) (#131)
    by Salo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:23:34 PM EST
    a short pamphlete on the subject if Obama fails.

    It may be that America is ready to elect an exotic and cosmopolitan Ivy League liberal type.

    OTOH

    It's never really happened in recent memory.   Even Kennedy was more Irish-Rogue than aristocrat. The Appalachian voters who are connect culturally with Ulster could at least relate a bit to the catholic upstart.

    So I'd keep loyal and write about what is wrong with the party in terms of culture and attitude if obama fails.

    [ Parent ]

    The Only Reason To Stay Loyal (5.00 / 1) (#162)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:33:16 PM EST
    to the democrats at this point is to win elections against Republicans.  If they aren't committed to doing that, then why should I stay loyal?  Because of their failure to stand up on Iraq and force a withdrawal timeline, their continued corporatism, their silence in the face of widespread misogyny?

    [ Parent ]
    Any Self Respecting (5.00 / 2) (#180)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:37:37 PM EST
    political party would be angry with Obama over his move to discourage money going to 527s, his dismissal of white working class voters, and his Mission Accomplished plan.  Yet, I see no evidence that any of these things are costing him with SDs even though these things tend to show him as being more interested in promoting himself than the party.

    [ Parent ]
    write. (none / 0) (#155)
    by Salo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:31:19 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    kennedy was a war hero, too. (none / 0) (#163)
    by Kathy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:33:23 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    you left out one possibility (none / 0) (#237)
    by owenaprhys on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:19:34 PM EST
    the DNC doesn't care about the POTUS in November. They only care about the down elections.

    [ Parent ]
    Also, why would Obama be automatic now? (5.00 / 2) (#73)
    by andrys on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:09:10 PM EST
    A Redstater made a very astute observation that Dem leaders would have to explain as anything but a suicide march off the cliff.

    ...
    Here now, this week, and next week, Barack Obama, the presumptive Democrat nominee, will have lost every election since February except North Carolina and Guam, and lost nearly two thirds of the vote in West Virginia, and yet the media will sweep it all under the rug, flailing about wildly to find burning crosses and white sheets instead of recognizing Obama's significant general election
    vulnerabilities.

    Hillary is still done for in the media's mind, but Barack still can't win. The media will ignore that. After all, West Virginia and Kentucky and Indiana and Puerto Rico are all racist.
    ...

      BTD, are you buying Obama at this point yourself, for November, with all that we know now re his strength now before the usual vetting that even Hillary would not do?

    I ask, keeping in mind, that Howard Dean has said that the focus will be on the last 6-8 races and the momentum there, and electability will be the focus.

      His problems would be survivable as a VP but I don't think they would be as Dem Presidential nominee.

    - Andrys


    [ Parent ]

    Don't Forget Vermont! (none / 0) (#97)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:14:13 PM EST
    Although even in that blowout, he still lost white voters with no college degree.

    [ Parent ]
    And Mississippi (none / 0) (#98)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:14:32 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    He'll probably win OR (none / 0) (#185)
    by davnee on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:40:07 PM EST
    but I'm looking for Clinton to at least triple the margin of victory in Kentucky.  If Obama blows her out in OR that probably gives him just enough to keep the supers headed for the cliff.  Then they can say he won 2 states since Wright/BitterCling not just one!  For me the key is the OR exit polls.  If his latte sipping supporters don't show hostility to Clinton (and assuming she runs well among working class and Latinos in OR) in the exit questions then what possible reason could there be to play electoral chicken between the Dems?  You know which groups are most likely to defect to McCain or their couch and you know the size of their slice in the electorate.  But I think the supers are only listening to the $$$ at this point.

    [ Parent ]
    Even (none / 0) (#121)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:19:25 PM EST
    the Clintons can't carry a broken backed unity pony over the finish line.

    [ Parent ]
    I Worry About That, Too (5.00 / 2) (#135)
    by BDB on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:24:36 PM EST
    Sure, Clinton could help unify the party, but ultimately decisions are made about the top spot.  

    I still cannot believe the Democrats are going to jump off the cliff with Obama.  I see it coming, but I can't seem to accept it or believe it.  It's not just because he isn't my candidate.  I'm perfectly used to not having my candidate win an election, I'm a democrat.  It's that it appears to be incredibly risky and stupid at this point.  He's bleeding non-AA support and there haven't even been hardcore negative ads run against him.  Have we learned nothing from John Kerry?

    [ Parent ]

    Frankly (5.00 / 1) (#213)
    by Ga6thDem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:58:19 PM EST
    it looks like our best option to win in Nov is for Obama to completely implode like Dean or Hart did. Wright has made him unelectable but that doesn't seem to bother the party much. A complete collapse would have to happen.

    [ Parent ]
    With all due respect (5.00 / 6) (#4)
    by suisser on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:44:58 AM EST
    1. He won't and she shouldn't.
    2. He can't because he doesn't
    3. He won't because he is impatient.


    OK, fine... (5.00 / 19) (#5)
    by lambert on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:46:26 AM EST
    ... but if these are all such great ideas, then why hasn't he already done them? I mean, if you lose a race to someone you want on board with you later, do you  make a concession speech, or leave some voicemail?

    My model is that Obama and his supporters are all and only about creating the Obama Movement as a distinct and permanent institutional presence. That's what the database is about; that's what the GOT[Obama]V operation is about; that's what undercutting the 527s is all about. And they're using the Obama Movement to get control of the Democratic Party, in a sort of hostile takeover, after which they plan to shed unprofitable divisions (like, anyone who actually needs goverment to work).

    And when I say "all and only" that's what I mean -- winning in November is a nice-to-have. It's control of the Democratic Party apparatus that's a have-to-have. Donna Brazile committed a gaffe in the classic mode: Speaking the unspoken truth.

    Occam's razor, man....

    I think that's right, but WHO (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by MarkL on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:48:23 AM EST
    is fighting to control the Democratic party? Stealth Republicans?

    [ Parent ]
    Take a look (5.00 / 4) (#23)
    by madamab on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:54:21 AM EST
    at this.

    It's very possible that KKKarl Rove is actively encouraging and propping up Obama's candidacy.

    Think about it.

    If McCain wins - great, they've got at least four more years than they thought to rake in the cash for the super-rich. Plus, he gets to appoint the Supreme Court Justices and further their conservative agenda.

    If Obama wins - great, he's in their pockets anyway.

    If HRC wins - not great, but expected, and they'll just hang all of Bush's failures on her with the media in their pockets to prevent the complete and total death of the Republican Party. Doesn't matter, they'll come back again in a few decades and they're ready for that too.

    This makes so much sense to me that I am afraid it is true.

    [ Parent ]

    I've seen that article before. (none / 0) (#26)
    by MarkL on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:55:37 AM EST
    I don't find it convincing.. needs more evidence.

    [ Parent ]
    I am not 100% convinced either... (none / 0) (#47)
    by madamab on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:02:17 PM EST
    but I wouldn't put it past them.

    [ Parent ]
    the problem is that it could happen anyway wether it's a planned thing or not.  To the detriment of the Democratic party and IMO to the Country unless this mess is fixed pronto we are all the loosers with probably 4 years of McBush or maybe a weakened Democratic administration.  Just a fear hopefully we will garnish strength and carry enough Democrats to Congress so that if Obama is the nominee and if he wins we can get some constructive legislation passed.  Or enough strength so if McBush wins we can block any damage he may try to inflict..

    [ Parent ]
    that tin foil hat (none / 0) (#96)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:14:06 PM EST
    looks pretty good on you.

    [ Parent ]
    I have a "hat face." (none / 0) (#156)
    by madamab on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:31:31 PM EST
    Seriously...I know it's a bit out there. Just thought it was interesting in terms of what MarkL said.

    If the goal is NOT to win in November, but simply to torpedo the Clintons at any cost, Obama's actions make a lot more sense.

    [ Parent ]

    LOL! (5.00 / 1) (#236)
    by coigue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:18:43 PM EST
    I am sorry, but I just get a bit irritated when people project nefarious intentions (not using evidence) on either candidate. Lots of people elsewhere like to say that the Clintons undermined John Kerry's campaign just so she could run.

    It's all projection of the posters' feelings of candidate tribalism that is evident in the Dem party right now.

    [ Parent ]

    Apparently the Obama campaign. (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by magisterludi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:04:42 PM EST
    At TLC Steve Soto says they are requesting all donations for dem interest groups go to them so they control the message. I assume that means no dem 527's.


    [ Parent ]
    That is very cultlike. (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by Salo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:08:36 PM EST
    You are only allowed to have intimate monetary relations with Obama.

    It's also BS. The 527s are probably controled by his top staffers.

    [ Parent ]

    Very cultish (none / 0) (#127)
    by magisterludi on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:21:23 PM EST
    and unsettling. (spectre of Karl Rove swooshes past)

    [ Parent ]
    Jim Jones... (none / 0) (#225)
    by AX10 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:07:04 PM EST
    said that all Marriages only existed through himself.  That of course was his excuse to justify sexual relations with every woman in the cult.

    [ Parent ]
    Read Evelyn Pringle's articles. Obama is the (none / 0) (#125)
    by derridog on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:20:46 PM EST
    corporate, mob candidate, acc. to her.  She's an investigative reporter for Op Ed News.  She has a number of articles on this. They are long and convoluted and hard to follow because of all the unsavory characters who are connected with O in Chicago and internationally.  She claims they were going to run Blagojevich (the Dem Governor) for President, but he got too entangled in the Rezko case and so they decided to run Obama. The last governor, Ryan (Republican), is currently in jail.  

    Supposedly it isn't about the parties --these mobsters support both, it's about money and corruption, both in the U.S. and in Iraq.  There are a number of Arab figures involved, including Hadhmi Auchi, a international crook who can't come into the U.S or France because he would be arrested. It was his money, lent to Rezko, that helped Obama buy his house.  

    I know this all sounds like tinfoil hat stuff, but you really should read it.  I will never vote for Obama because I think he's a trojan horse, meant to destroy the Dem party and take it over in the same way that the Republican Party was taken over by the Neocons and Rove  (who Pringle says is also involved in this, along with the Carlyle Group).   They want free rein and don't care about the American populace.

    Just a few days ago, in the Wall Street Journal, a front page article  (May 5, 2008), title "Obama Says Teamsters Need Less Oversight," says that Obama won the endorsement of the Teamsters this year "after privately telling the union he supported ending the strict federal oversight imposed to root out corruption, according to officials in the union and the Obama campaign." He wants to get rid of an "independent review board set up  in 1992 to eliminate mob influence in the Union."

    This is hardly the only thing out there on him.  He scares me, frankly. Once these creeps take over both parties, they will have complete control over our government and continue to shut third parties out.  There's a reason why the MSM is trying to shove him down our throats. They are owned by five corporations who do NOT have the public interest at heart.

    I'm not sure they even want McCain. It's possible this is a ploy to get McCain elected, but McCain's fund raising problems and Obama's limitless supply of money make me think they WANT Obama to win and are determined to make it happen.

    I hope I'm wrong, but I'm really nervous and upset about this. You have to dig, but this information is online.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama pro-teamsters. (none / 0) (#140)
    by Salo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:25:40 PM EST
    And they dare compare Obama to Bobby Kennedy?  

    [ Parent ]
    If I take this at face value.. (none / 0) (#229)
    by AX10 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:09:58 PM EST
    then I would have to throw my full support to McCain in an Obama v. McCain race.

    [ Parent ]
    Who? Everyone who lost ... (none / 0) (#128)
    by lambert on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:22:22 PM EST
    ... to the Clintons!

    (And who thinks that their own seat is safe because of the money Obama gave them or promised.)

    [ Parent ]

    Lambert, I agree (5.00 / 6) (#93)
    by Kathy on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:13:30 PM EST
    and I'll take it one step further and ask a variation on my tired, old, "name one thing he has taken a stand on, voted on, that caused him political capital," by asking, "What makes you think he's capable of reaching out now?"  We can only look at Obama's past to predict future actions (or inactions).  What has he done during this entire camapign that would indicate he has any notion of doing any of the things Armando listed?  I'll dip my toe in even deeper by saying that going by Brazile and Axlerod, they don't even think there's a problem.

    Obama continues to block FL and MI.  He continues to mock Clinton and her supporters with this fake win crap when he hasn't won.  He continues to act as if rural voters do not matter by not even bothering to campaign for their votes.  What is going to magically change?

    And, speaking for women here, too many of us have had men figuratively kick us in the teeth, then think that an apology and a nice flower arrangement will solve the problem.  Nuh-huh.

    We're not Tweety.  We're not Russert.  He can't make Teh Best Speech Evah and persuade us that all those things he's been doing for the last year don't really matter.

    This is an unsormountable problem that Obama's side won't even acknowledge, let alone seek to fix.  He's coming across as even more elitist than Kerry, and that is saying a LOT.

    [ Parent ]

    "Honey, I've changed!" (5.00 / 2) (#130)
    by lambert on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:22:53 PM EST
    Yep.

    [ Parent ]
    capable... (5.00 / 1) (#212)
    by p lukasiak on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:57:34 PM EST
    "What makes you think he's capable of reaching out now? We can only look at Obama's past to predict future actions (or inactions).  What has he done during this entire camapign that would indicate he has any notion of doing any of the things Armando listed?"

    the key word here is 'capable'.  While I think Obama has the capacity to ask Clinton to be VP, and the capacity to get MI and FL seated, I don't think he has the capacity to repair the damage he's done with not just "working class" voters, but seniors, Latin@s, women, LGBTs, etc.

    Obama can inspire people, but thats about it. And once you've seen "the man behind the curtain", the image of the Great and Powerful Oz loses its capacity to inspire.  Obama can't convince anyone of anything, as far as I can tell -- they either take the leap of faith required to support Obama, or they remain skeptical.

    Obama can't just "take a page out of Bill Clinton's book", because you can't teach empathy... you can acquire it (or a reasonable facsimile of it) but that takes years to do -- not weeks or months as BTD seems to suggest.

    I really admire and appreciate BTD's analytical skills, but I don't think he gets it quite yet.  The vast majority of the people who say they want Clinton in the number 2 spot will wind up voting for Obama regardless of who is in that spot -- and to those of us who support Clinton, FL/MI is more important as a symptom than as a problem per se.  I think that Obama can win Michigan even if its not seated, and can't win Florida even if it is seated.  Treating the symptom does not address the real problem -- Obama's political short-sightedness.  

    Obama focusses only on short term solutions, and pays no attention to the impact those solutions have on the long term problem.   So while it was samrt, in the short term, for Obama to act as if he was the nominee and didn't need to bother with West Virginia, long term it was a really stupid decision, because while his arrogance feeds into the prevailing media narrative, when that narrative changes as the media focusses on McCain v Obama, the chickens, as rev, wright would say, will come home to roost.

    [ Parent ]

    What we really needed (none / 0) (#184)
    by joanneleon on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:39:33 PM EST
    was a Populist Party.  And maybe we will need to form one going forward.  Who knows how this will all turn out?

    [ Parent ]
    Condescension speech (not the other thingy) (none / 0) (#238)
    by Ellie on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:19:59 PM EST
    Obama's forward momentum has relied on step-stoning from one slogan to the next without explaining (or delivering) anything, and now that he's all about The Math and The Roolz, he's trying to jump to the next stone but getting bogged down.

    Clips of his speech (and other visuals) shown in yesterday's news were really awful. I know the Math and the hype are hard at work, but this clunker is out of gas. Not just sayin': look at what's being delivered compared to what was promised just a few weeks ago. (IMO, pre-PA was when TeamBO hit E).

    His No. 1 Inspiration Hit that oPods claim makes Obama (and them) different -- LOL -- is that the movement always says "we we we", but Bad Monster Lady and her supporters say "I I I". This huge selling point moves into the Yes We Can chant, and the footage, into the Unity talking point. (sigh)

    That worked well, echoing back and forth to leave warm fuzzies behind while exciting advance audiences for the upcoming appearances of Obama Montana.

    It also got doofuses who care about such things -- Obamann, the veritable army of Soul Brothers No. 3 in the MSM, Collective Class -- scrambling to stock up on Groovy Flavored Koolaid to serve up at their Socratic cave sessions.

    But yesterday's dull Obama speech was all about The American People and "they they they". What a dud it was. Obama's usual backdrop of young hopeful faces was replaced with bored, disengaged people who could barely sit upright.

    Obama sounded like he was lecturing the (on-site) audience about some exotic animals none of them had seen before.

    The overall effect would likely play to the home viewer like s/he was being talked about in the third person. (Who was at Obama's speech in realtime? The People of Kazachkstan?)

    This is as likely to set off the same wave of buyer's remorse that happened as quickly as the tidal wall'O'bama that swept ... well, not the nation.

    Flogging The Math doesn't even excite righteous indignation except in Left Blogostan and after it's major "wins" -- ::: crickets ::: -- that's unlikely to spark any bonfires over the summer.

    [ Parent ]

    Your are absolutely right. (none / 0) (#255)
    by Mari on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:42:58 PM EST
    Obama and his so-called movement is very dangerous to our democracy. They basically want to kick out the base (working class, women, seniors, union members, etc.) and leave them completely powerless. He needs to be stopped.

    [ Parent ]
    Sorry (5.00 / 5) (#9)
    by Carolyn in Baltimore on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:48:24 AM EST
    I can't see Obama or his supporters doing any of these three things. I am resigned to a McCain presidency if Obama is the nominee. With luck we'll have a  veto-proof majority in COngress but we'll miss the administrative Executive picks and policies and SCOTUS and judicial picks. So more power but not enough to start fixing enough.

    Write in Hillary... see here for how.. (5.00 / 1) (#78)
    by FlaDemFem on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:10:49 PM EST
    WriteHillaryIn.com
    As far as I am concerned, her candidacy isn't over until the day after Election Day. She could win with write-ins, and even if she didn't, we would be sending a very strong message to the DNC.

    [ Parent ]
    Unless Obama can undo (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by Fabian on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:49:24 AM EST
    the many entrenched anti-Hillary narratives out there, I do not see how VP Clinton will magically Unify the party.  To the HHers, VP Clinton would be a betrayal of Colin Powell proportions.  To Clinton supporters, it would be more symbolic than substantive.

    Plus, my every instinct tells me that Obama would have to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it.  Obama does not share the spotlight willingly and he would have to.

    OTOH, if Obama could graciously and willingly team up with Hillary, they could be unbeatable.  The key there is "team".  

    I do not know if Obama has it in him.  He could learn so very much from Clinton if only he would LISTEN.

    The -people would be fine with it (5.00 / 1) (#206)
    by joanneleon on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:54:50 PM EST
    The polls have shown that people are in favor of a unity ticket.  The people, of all ages, races, genders, religions and creeds, actually have something called common sense regardless of their education level or bank account balance.

    The problem is with the party insiders, as usual.

    Obama and his inner circle would have to be coerced into it.  Nancy Pelosi says it's off the table.  Who knows what Howard Dean is doing -- I hardly recognize the guy anymore.  Ted Kennedy is working his unity magic again, a la 1980.  The Republicans are doing everything they can to cause trouble and divide us, the so-called leaders do what they always do -- nothing productive.  "We'll take care of this in the back rooms," says Nancy, "and get out of my garden, you dirty protesters.  You'll take what you get, and you'll like it."

    My guess is that the party leaders and Obama will decide that they know better, once again, and will not listen to the people, and it will cost us this election.  All along the way they will be enabled by the media and the leaders of most left blogs.  Six months later they won't know what the hell happened, and finally, they'll do what they always do.  They'll blame Clinton.

    [ Parent ]

    Grownups (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Lahdee on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:50:00 AM EST
    A mature, pragmatic political approach will unify the party. IMO it's not about the Democratic party for BO, it's about change. If the Democratic party comes along for the ride all well and good. If not that's fine too. If the latter approach elects McCain then that's just how it is.
    I know you've said it before that Obama will win despite it all, but I shiver when I hear the Swift Boat loonies are going to viciously attach him in the general. Combine that with the corporate media and it's not looking good for our apparent nominee unless he unifies the party, no matter how he does it.

    They will go Torquemada ... (5.00 / 2) (#28)
    by Salo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:55:52 AM EST
    ...on Wright's heretical theology.  

    who knew we had a theological blind spot like this?  

    We are the Secularists G-d D-mn it!

    [ Parent ]