SUSA NC Poll : Obama By 10

By Big Tent Democrat

The new world's greatest pollster, SUSA, has a new North Carolina poll:

Four weeks to the 05/06/08 [NC] Primary, Barack Obama is 10 points atop Hillary Clinton, exactly where Obama was two months ago, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll . . . [r]emarkable stability within the sub-populations. Among men, over the past 2 months, Obama led by 18, by 13, and today by 15 points. Among women, Obama led by 2, by 3, and today by 6 points. Among whites, Clinton led by 19, by 17, and today by 22 points. Among blacks, Obama led by 65, by 61, and today by 75 points. . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) Again, feels right to me. But I know much less about North Carolina than say, PA.

< Obama on Foreign Policy Experience | Michelle Obama Event: Seating Re-Arranged to Showcase Whites >
  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

  • Display: Sort:
    It's static (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:59:21 PM EST
    and the Demographics look right.

    I do notice the strangely large percentage of people saying they'll vote for someone else. Perhaps related to the way SUSA supposedly pauses for "press N for 'undecided'."

    We all know a win is a win, but what happens to the narrative when, as this contest drags on, Hillary's wins start to be much bigger than Obama's?  

    Pressure on the Supers increases. (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by sweetthings on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:11:07 PM EST
    If Clinton wins PA by 18 points, and only loses NC by single digits, it's going to make life very difficult for any uncommitted super...particularly if she goes on to win in Indiana and elsewhere. Right now, we're seeing a slow but fairly steady drip of Supers into the Obama camp. A big win in PA should stop that. A narrow loss in NC might well reverse it. If she could WIN NC, then it would be a sign that Obama has truly imploded, and I'd expect to see a bigger movement.

    Here's my prediction (none / 0) (#10)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:14:36 PM EST
    PA: Hillary by 10-20%

    NC: Obama by 10-20%

    IN: Hillary by 6%

    OR: Obama by 10%

    WV: Hillary by 25-30%

    KY: Hillary by 25-30%

    The wild card is Puerto Rico. Frankly, I expect Hillary to clean up there.

    What this all would mean? Who knows.


    Hunches (none / 0) (#11)
    by 1jane on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:22:24 PM EST
    PA Clinton by 3-5

    NC Obama by 17

    IN Clinton by 3-5

    OR Obama by 10-16

    MT Obama by 3-5

    WV Clinton by 3-5

    KY Clinton by 3-5


    WV and Kentucky (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:24:25 PM EST
    Bet. I'll take Clinton minus 3 to 5.

    me too, I'd bet pretty much anything on that (n/t) (none / 0) (#45)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:25:12 PM EST
    It's hard for me to imagine Obama (none / 0) (#14)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:28:19 PM EST
    doing so well in WV and KY. Hillary would essentially have to drop out IMO.

    Demographics have largely been destiny so far.


    What about SD? (none / 0) (#24)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:05:14 PM EST
    Why? (none / 0) (#15)
    by BlacknBlue on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:30:29 PM EST
    PR has a huge black population.

    Since I'm from PR... (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Josmt on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:06:17 PM EST
    I'll tell you a little secret... the black population you speak of doesn't have the same background as the U.S black population, since their background is more related to the Tainos...

    Back on track, from what I'm hearing from my family there it's how good they feel about Hillary and no so much about Obama.


    Frankly, I base that on what BTD has (none / 0) (#17)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:33:10 PM EST

    As I say, I really don't have a clue.


    Hmmm (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:33:59 PM EST
    Not the way you think of it.

    Obviously there's something about PR (none / 0) (#20)
    by BlacknBlue on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:41:24 PM EST
    Jesse Jackson won the contest in PR in 1988, after the nominee was for all intents and purposes decided. People simply assuming PR= Hispanic, therefore, PR= Hillary are in for a surprise, imo.

    People assuming that BTD (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:46:00 PM EST
    doesn't know about PR are in for a surprise, imo.

    Comparing Obama to Jackson... (none / 0) (#48)
    by joc on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:53:08 PM EST
    just means you're a racist, or Bill Clinton, I'm not sure which.

    Yes but (none / 0) (#22)
    by facta non verba on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:50:14 PM EST
    they're Hispanics and their experiences and behaviour is much different than American blacks. Race and race relations are much different in Latin America. Puerto Rico should go solidly for Clinton.

    Yes (none / 0) (#25)
    by BlacknBlue on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:05:54 PM EST
    And Puerto Ricans are not at all like Mexicans. And as far as I know, Clinton does not have the same relationship with them as she had with Mexican Americans, or even Blacks.

    reply to Black and Blue.. (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by fly on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:09:45 PM EST
    Hillary will win Puerto Rico by large numbers..the Clintons are loved in PR!!

    But (none / 0) (#27)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:21:11 PM EST
    Isn't there a large Puerto Rican population in NY?  And don't many of them have family on the island? And isn't she popular there?

    My prediction...based on yours. (none / 0) (#16)
    by sweetthings on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:32:32 PM EST
    Going by your numbers, I see Obama getting the nomination, and immediately coming under tremendous pressure to offer Hillary the VP slot, which he probably does. (Whether she accepts is, of course, a different matter.)

    I confess, though, that while I think your predictions are good, I don't like them. There are no surprises. Both candidates hold onto their respective demographics, and the party basically remains split down the middle. Obama ends up with a slight lead in pledged delegates, but it all comes down to the Supers without any real movement on the ground. Ick.

    Personally, I'm hoping for a surprise in either NC or PA. I don't really care which candidate gets the nomination, but I'd like whichever one it is to win. If one candidate can make significant inroads into the other's base, then they should be able to bring us all together in November, which is what really matters.


    I don't really disagree with you (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:34:29 PM EST
    But my feeling is that this campaign has been momentum proof, and that it will continue to be.

    I'm with andgarden. (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:36:38 PM EST
    I'd also like to see a big move for one of the candidates but it seems unlikely. Demographics have been amazingly solid. The party is deeply divided. People have picked their sides, ignored each others scandals, and continue to believe in their candidate. At this point it just seems locked in.

    Ha! Well said. n/t (none / 0) (#30)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:31:01 PM EST
    Hmm (none / 0) (#36)
    by Shawn on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:47:39 PM EST
    I do notice the strangely large percentage of people saying they'll vote for someone else. Perhaps related to the way SUSA supposedly pauses for "press N for 'undecided'."

    Does anyone know if Edwards will still be on the ballot there?


    Just do it.. (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:07:18 PM EST
    Hillary - Yes you can !!!

    Turnout (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:28:00 PM EST
    I think, as has been true in this entire campaign, who turns out is what will decide it.  I see no evidence that either Clinton or Obama has broken into the other's stronghold.  NC probably has a few more latte liberals and academics around Research Triangle Park, but it also is a former slave state and, while I strongly disagree that racism is the deciding factor in this race, I'm not so stupid as to believe it is no factor (same as sexism).

    African Americans will be over-represented in the democratic primary since a lot of whites (and the true racists) are, you know, Republican.  If you assume blacks make up 30% of the vote and Obama gets 90% of those, that gives him 27% and Clinton 3%.  Now, assume Hillary wins 60% of the white vote (probably much more women than men), that gives her 42% and Obama 28%.  Put them together and it would give Obama a 55%-45% win.  

    Change the demos (e.g. the ratio of black to white voters) or change how each does with the demos and you get a different result.  But assuming the demos vote about how they have in other states, 10% seems about right to me.  

    BTW, I'm not sure any of this proves Clinton voters are all just a bunch of racists.  Clinton has spent more time talking about healthcare and economic specifics and her plans have gotten good coverage from folks like Krugman and even Elizabeth Edwards is saying she has the only true universal healthcare plan.  It may be that the reasons African Americans think Obama's election will be better for them, simply don't hold as much influence with white voters.  Not that white voters are inherently hostile to Obama.  

    You talk like an OB supporter (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:50:25 PM EST
    Lots of talk with little to support it.

    You couldn't be more wrong about this (none / 0) (#40)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:57:38 PM EST
    poster. Read some comment history.

    I keep two TLs open (none / 0) (#54)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 09:58:18 PM EST
    and check comments lately... troll watch.

    BTD, You're analysis is the best (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Lil on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:03:14 PM EST
    so I'm asking: Can she close the gap in NC in your opinion, and I read somewhere that as soon as she loses the next primary, she's done. Is that true? The next debate is the 16th? That could tell us a lot about where this may all be heading. Do ya think?

    You didn't ask me (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:23:39 PM EST
    But here's my two cents, FWIW....

    I think if she wins big in PA, she can close the gap in NC. If she keeps in close in NC, she's in until the end.


    All NC needs (none / 0) (#41)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:58:42 PM EST
    is one more round of Wright tapes being aired.

    Raleigh/Durham, Research Triangle...still religious.


    I hope the Wright thing goes away (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:54:59 PM EST
    I won't feel happy if Clinton gets a victory out of it in NC.  I don't think she could anyway.

    That said, I think the Clinton team has learned some lessons about organizing and is taking this state seriously.  An office just opened near my town in NC.  So that makes it a true Obama-Clinton showdown here!  Frankly, I'm just excited they are both present and ready to go.  I think and hope the tone down here will be friendly.  The turnout at the office opening this evening was pretty good and people seemed excited.  I volunteered in South Carolina and met some very appalling racist supporters of Clinton.  They're out there.  Just as the sexist supporters of Obama are out there.  But I was refreshed to not here a single negative word about Obama, and the chatter was all positive with echoes of healthcare and people explaining to each other why they liked Hillary.  No mention of Wright.  I wasn't there very long but I got a good impression.  You can feel in the room how proud some of the older female supporters are of her.  People shouldn't diss these women, it is a really great thing to see them so excited and energized.  

    I still feel I could stroll down to the Obama office as well.  To those tired of the blogosphere, I suggest going on down to the local office if there is still one in your state and doing some volunteering.  Many people do have their heart in the right place on both sides.  If your state's primary/caucus has already passed, maybe it will encourage some of you to know that in this last important state people seem to be feeling good and positive.  

    Still, political campaigns creep me out.  When people are getting paid to win by maximizing their candidate's image...they're all spin machines, Obama and Clinton alike.  Their enthusiasm is nothing compared to yours for your issues, IMO.  Hopefully a lasting legacy of this primary race will be the involvement of people who were drawn to each candidate for a certain reason, to stay involved in politics due to that reason - Iraq, Healthcare, etc.  We make our candidates punching-bags too often.  If millions of people are drawn to Hillary out of a passionate sense of the need for healthcare reform in this country, then it will happen...I hope.


    I'm glad to have your 2 cents (none / 0) (#51)
    by Lil on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:41:33 PM EST
    HRC is not a quitter (none / 0) (#39)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:57:00 PM EST
    HRC has not demonstrated that she will quit anytime soon.  I suspect she knows NC will be difficult and that it's another red state for BO.  BC is in Puerto Rico and HRC will probably stay to end of the ninth inning, PR

    if the house of clinton falls (none / 0) (#50)
    by cy street on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:03:02 PM EST
    in pennsylvania, the race will go on in ceremony only.  the path to victory is already a razor's edge.  any misstep will cut deep into clinton claims about big states, popular vote and electoral maps.

    i agree this goes to puerto rico, but a pennsylvania loss puts the press core on the beach with obama listening to ubforty, drinking..

    red red wine.


    Oh (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by cmugirl on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:26:34 PM EST
    And Elizabeth Edwards joined the Center for American Progress today as a senior fellow. CAP was founded by former Clinton White House chief of staff John Podesta, who is a Hillary supporter - does this mean John will endorse Hillary?


    Elizabeth Edwards? This is significant! (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by felizarte on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:42:41 PM EST
    An Elizabeth Edwards endorsement will have impact.  Many, even those in the media hold her in high regard.  But even if she does not endorse Hillary Clinton, if she speaks out on the issues, she might be able to influence the discourse and therefore the nomination.

    EE would be a great endorsement for HRC (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:00:03 PM EST
    Even if JE does not endorse HRC.  It's not the first time that EE has acted on her own.

    EE has not exactly been a fan of HRC (none / 0) (#44)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:10:32 PM EST
    she took some rather cheap shots early on in the race, I felt.  I have no problem when Clinton is pounded on substance, but I felt like some of EE's comments were too personal and nasty in tone.

    Other candidates (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:46:03 PM EST
    I think the big story of the SUSA NC poll is that Obama is below 50 percent and that 7 percent of the voters are rejecting Obama and HRC.  It's unlikely those voters will change their mind come November.

    I think his margin in NC... (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by mike in dc on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:43:15 PM EST
    ...is probably a little bigger than this.

    By the way, Strategic Vision's poll on PA, due out tomorrow, will apparently reflect a 47-42 race there, making that 3 polls this week showing a 5-6 point race in PA.  Also, Chuck Todd has apparently said the internal polls for both campaigns show the race in single digits there.  Some of the internals on that PA SUSA poll are a little hinky, projecting a 14% AA turnout and Clinton gaining 10 points there--that change alone accounts for half of Clinton's 6 point gain in their new poll.

    i know a lot about north carolina (none / 0) (#1)
    by Turkana on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 04:58:19 PM EST
    great program, great coach. not athletic enough to beat kansas.

    susa's sure running against the grain. very interesting.

    heh (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:00:50 PM EST
    That is a big change (none / 0) (#8)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 05:08:32 PM EST
    I saw some polls with Obama up by over 20%.  Jim Van De Hei also said NC was an Obama runaway on Bill Press this morning (I know, consider the source. I should have known it was wrong.)

    Maybe other polls have those undecideds going for Obama.

    Let's play a game (none / 0) (#31)
    by blogtopus on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:32:15 PM EST
    I'll name the state, and you tell me if it it likely they will vote Dem in November:


    North Carolina.

    VERY good. One of these things is not like the other...

    I used to watch Sesame Street (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:47:52 PM EST
    with my kids.  PA has a bloody chance of going blue, and NC has a bloody chance of going red?

    I'll play (5.00 / 2) (#46)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:26:43 PM EST
    PA goes blue if Clinton is the nom., red if Obama is. NC goes red either way. OK, what do I win.

    John Edwards! (none / 0) (#33)
    by Marco21 on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 06:41:49 PM EST
    Where are you?????

    I'm originally from NC (none / 0) (#49)
    by cannondaddy on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:55:13 PM EST
    I'd say the average of the polls, 15%, is the best bet.  There is a much larger educated class there than you might expect.

    On the other hand it may be vulnerable to Operation Chaos.

    NC is really (none / 0) (#53)
    by barbh on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 09:05:04 PM EST
    a weird state.  I am a native to NC and have lived in NC pretty much all my life.

    I usually just lurk here, it is such an excellent site and many thanks to Jeralyn and BTD for all their hard work here, I especially appreciate their comments on MI/FL.

    There are quite a few registered Democrats here that haven't met a Democrat for Federal office that they would vote for since LBJ signed the civil rights act.

    There has been an influx of "yankees" (I married and divorced one of them!)   in the last five to 10 years and the demographics are gradually changing to a more blue state, i.e., purple in metro areas.  Thank the maker (!), someday we might start electing better candidates.  Larry Kissell nearly beat Robin Hayes, I believe it was something like 300 votes, last time around, so here's hoping the second time is a charm and in a very "red" district too.

    It is not uncommon here to see people with confederate flag stickers  on their vehicles and the further out of the metro areas you go, the more you will see this.  These people, believe it or not, refer to the Civil War as "the war of northern aggression".    These people wouldn't vote for Obama if hell froze over, but then again they usually vote Republican, but a great many of them are registered Democrats (to me that is beyond weird).  These people will probably vote in the primary for anyone but Obama and will make an effort to vote in the primary simply to vote against him.  It's not a position I take, but that is NC.  

    We are actually turning the clock back on desegregation here and resegregating our schools and the school board member that initiated the lawsuit to end all this, wins the most votes term after term.  I don't understand all the legalese behind it, but this man sued and it was declared Swann vs Mecklenburg BOE, the feds no longer had to intervene and mandatory racial quotas ended, so the school system here is going way, way backward and there are many that are happy with that, I am not one of them!  The inequity is mind boggling, socioeconomic, as well as racial inequality are becoming huge here.

    If it weren't for the Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill areas, I doubt that Obama would be polling as high as he is.  These are the areas he will do well in. This is a very interesting area to watch, if he can't pull very high numbers here 919 area code, he is toast.

    I am way beyond stunned (delighted as an unabashed Hillary supporter) that he is not doing as well in the 704 area.  I'm sure his campaign is pretty worried about this, if not should be.  The 704 area went for Kerry in 2004, so I'm really shocked, I thought it was BO terrority for sure, but apparently not. It is a large district.

    I think that Hillary has the opportunity to pull a big surprise here in NC.  One of these years NC will turn blue for president, maybe in the next 16 years,but as our schools are resegregating again, it will be a very narrow window, I believe.

    The way the districts are cut up is really weird to, there was a big too do about racial gerrymandering of districts a while back, but the districts still stand right now.

    I have seen a PPP poll recently that has Obama with a large lead, they polled something like 36% AA, but the total AA population of NC is only 21%, so this poll seems kind of wacky to me.

    Also seen a weird one in the last week, Charlotte Observer (McClatchy newspaper)/WCNC poll with something like 35 Obama, 26 Clinton.  No not a typo, that many undecided, huge # of undecided!  In Texas, Hillary won a very large number of undecideds...haven't gone back to see if she gets all undecideds all the time...but hopeful to me.

    I think NC is a very interesting and odd state, but of course I'm partial and I am so delighted to have my vote "matter" this primary season. Wish MI/FL's did also.  Wish NC wasn't so racially inclined, but it is, but becoming less so with every "yankee" transplant!

    There are plenty of people I know that think that Hillary is just the best candidate and then there are the others that will not vote for Obama and they are going to be very, very firm in their commitment for reasons of racial discomfort.  He will not be able to change these voters minds, it's far to ingrained in them.  Their kids might vote for him, but the parents will not - it's the way they were raised.  

    That said though, there are a lot of "good old boys" who aren't going to vote for a woman for president, for governor? Maybe.  Mayor or council person? No problem.  Will gender trump race?  Stay tuned to find out...

    Demographics (none / 0) (#55)
    by waldenpond on Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 10:05:58 PM EST
    Just curious to know where you got your census stats.  quickfacts.census.gov has the AA population at 35%.  Obama's expected win of at least 20 pts is based on this.  

    i just looked it up (none / 0) (#56)
    by cpinva on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 08:00:54 AM EST
    on the NC census site. it shows, per the 2000 census:

    total population:  8,049,313
    black/AA:           1,737,545

    that's 21% of the total population. that data is (roughly) 8 years old, but i have a difficult time believing the black/AA population has increased by 14% of the total population in those 8 years. i could be wrong.

    this also shows something else: the black/AA population of the US as a whole is approx. 12-13%. however, it isn't evenly distributed across all 50 states and territories, it tends to be densest in those states of the old confederacy, of which NC is one.

    this explains why the % of black/AA in NC (and probably every other deep south state) is nearly double that of the national average %. still, it's only 1/5 of NC's total population, which is predominantly white, and predominantly republican.

    other than for primary purposes, it really doesn't matter which of the dem candidates wins the NC vote for the nomination, neither will it in nov.


    Percentage of Democratic voters only? (none / 0) (#57)
    by cymro on Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 12:47:13 PM EST
    Maybe the 21% number is correct for NC overall, but the 35% is a percentage of expected voters in the Democratic primary?