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Hillary and Obama Speak at Montana Dems Dinner

Update: Hillary's speech focused on policy. More on the dinner is here.

Update: As others have noticed, Obama didn't realize Montana holds primaries, not cacuses. See below.

***

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are speaking two hours apart tonight at the Mansfield-Metcalf Democrats Dinner in Butte, Montana. Obama's speech has already concluded.

“I know that there’s some people who have been saying that these caucuses — the caucus states out West with these small populations, they don’t really count all that much,” Obama said in a thinly veiled reference to Clinton.

“I don’t know about you but I think they’re pretty important,” he said to loud applause. “I think it’s important to note that we have seen record number of Americans who turned out for us in Idaho, and in Wyoming, and in Utah, and in Colorado.”

It's not just the size of the states, it's their composition that's the point. There is no chance Montana, Wyoming, Idaho or Utah will go Democratic in November. (More...)

Clinton, a New York senator, said in an interview with the Politico magazine in February that her wins in larger states showed she would be more electable than Obama in a general election race against Republican Sen. John McCain.

She noted that many of the Western states that Obama had carried had voted solidly Republican in the past several general elections. “With all due respect, unless there’s a tsunami change in America, we’re never going to carry Alaska, North Dakota, Idaho,” Clinton told Politico. “It’s just not going to happen.”

“But we have to carry the states that I’m carrying, the primary states, the states that really have to be in the winning Democratic column,” she said.

While some larger states, like CA and NY are expected to go Democratic in November regardless of which Dem is the nominee, others, like Ohio and New Jersey, are considered up for grabs.

And then, there's Florida.

< Hillary Makes Argument for Counting MI and FL | Charlton Heston, R.I.P. >
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  • Display: Sort:
    I had really wanted to attend (5.00 / 5) (#1)
    by athyrio on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:22:26 PM EST
    this speech tonite too, but I am just too ill to go that far as it is quite a long drive from me....I wish her well with all these very chauvinistic ranchers LOL.....She certainly has my vote no problem and the vote of my husband too...My daughter and her hubby in South Dakota will also vote for her....We are all old time Democrats...

    Hi fellow Montanan! (5.00 / 3) (#5)
    by eleanora on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:38:25 PM EST
    I couldn't attend tonight either, as we had a family wedding this afternoon, with more events tomorrow. But it's still exciting to have primary candidates actually show up in our state! We don't usually even get the nominees to fly through. And Bill Clinton did a great job on Tuesday, very animated and great turnout. His meeting with the tribal leaders sounds like it went especially well.

    I found an article tonight on Obama's "Western Message" that quoted him saying,

    ""Here's the thing, Missoula -- I just like saying Missoula, by the way. It's a good name. Missoula. A lot of vowels," Obama said."

    Can't wait to hear from some friends who were going how that was received. I'm laughing pretty hard trying to imagine their faces :)

    Parent

    Finally, Something Obama and I Agree On (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by BDB on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:56:17 PM EST
    Missoula is fun to say!  Although not as much fun as Oaxaca.  

    Parent
    What part of our fair state are you (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by athyrio on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:01:51 PM EST
    from?? I am 60 miles south of Miles City...Not quite the edge of no where but you can see it from here ......:-)

    Parent
    I'm smack in the middle, (none / 0) (#45)
    by eleanora on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 11:39:57 AM EST
    between Helena and Great Falls. You can pretty much see nowhere from here too, but the mountains are pretty :)

    Parent
    Bringing up that where (5.00 / 4) (#2)
    by rooge04 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:33:40 PM EST
    Obama won happens to be caucus states that almost always vote Republican is an actual valid point. Never did she say those votes don't count, simply that in a GE, those states will vote Republican. I can't stand how he turns it around to make it seem like HRC doesn't care about their votes.

    Obama seems to have a problem with (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by FlaDemFem on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:05:19 PM EST
    political reality. He seems to think that because he can get many of the Dems in a state drooling over him that the Republicans will follow suit. He needs to look at some political history, like which party carried what states for how long and for what candidates. Hillary knows all that stuff, as well she should. Obama needs to learn it. Hillary knows what she is running against, Obama doesn't have a clue.

    I would love to pop into an alternate reality where he gets the nomination and watch the blood bath. If he got "rattled" by the Wright media coverage, wait until the GOP brings out Rezko and starts hammering away on his record, or lack of it. He won't be able to cover his behind fast enough. And he will blame it all on someone else..because he didn't know. And it will cost him his political career. After the GOP get finished with him, there won't be enough left to bury.

    Parent

    Umm, Obama is not an idiot (none / 0) (#39)
    by kayla on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:38:55 AM EST
    He's completely aware of all of this.  He just doesn't want to acknowledge it in public.  He's going to minimize and try to discredit all of her arguments against him, no matter how legitimate they are, because he has to if he wants to win the nomination.  He has to try to paint her as mean, dishonest and untrustworthy.  He has to continue this theme that every argument she makes for herself and every criticism she makes toward him because if he doesn't, too many people will see the truth in what she's saying.  I think he figures he can win over states like MI, FL, OH, and PA with his charm in the GE because he totally would have won those states in the primary if only he had the time (snark) and there's five months from June to November for him to do just that.  Or at least attempt to do it.

    He has to shut down her arguments as best he can, because he thinks that it shouldn't matter if he's not as electable now, because he will be in November.

    Parent

    Correction (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by kayla on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:49:30 AM EST
    He has to continue this theme that every argument she makes for herself and every criticism she makes toward him lacks merit because if he doesn't, too many people will see the truth in what she's saying.

    Also - sometimes I think his supporters do see truth in the things she says (call me crazy but she always criticizes him on something substantive like policy or she'll raise questions on his ability to lead.  She has never attacked him on his character.  She's playing a much less low-brow game then he is, if you ask me.) so they look to him for reassurance and are always satisfied no matter how illogical his rebuttal.

    Parent

    To be fair... (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by inclusiveheart on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:57:43 PM EST
    "there is no chance that Montana, Wyoming, Idaho or Utah" will go Dem is maybe an overstatement.  Montana might go Dem.  The thing is that there is no chance in hell that Obama could win all of the Mountain West states plus the central plains states which he would need to win in order to make up for Michigan and Florida for instance.  So it isn't just about whether some would go Dem.  It is about the odds of that many traditionally red states going blue.  The odds are low.  Far too low to stake a presidential victory strategy on them.

    Not sure it's an overstatement now (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by RalphB on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:06:05 PM EST
    but a miracle could happen.  Same miracle might make TX go Dem, but I doubt it.  The odds are infinitesimal though and, you're right, it's an almost sure loser in November.  If Obama is the nominee I guess we can always try again in 2012.


    Parent
    This article is nearly a month old (none / 0) (#22)
    by RickTaylor on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:40:04 PM EST
    and I don't really understand the nature of the horse race, so am in no position to evaluate it either way. But I thought some here might find it interesting. It tries to analyze how Clinton and Obama would fare against McCain, and decides they both win,but with different states. Link.

    Parent
    as usual, (5.00 / 3) (#8)
    by cpinva on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:58:39 PM EST
    sen. clinton is spot on in her assessment.

    sen. obama has won lots of caucuses, in little states, that will vote republican in nov. that's not to say those votes don't count, they do, but unless that's the sound of an ice sheet forming in hell that i hear, they won't mean a thing come the GE.

    for that matter, many of the primary states he's won (can you say SC boys & girls? i knew that you could!) will also be a bright shade of red in nov.

    those are just harsh facts.

    Montana (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by joejoejoe on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:03:33 PM EST
    Montana has a Democratic Governor and two Democratic Senators. I wouldn't say there is "no chance" for Democrats in the state. Part of the way any candidate  solidifies the 'lean Democrat' states is to make the opposition worry about 'lean Republican' states. Montana is that kind of state. Every resource the GOP spends on MT is a resource they don't deploy to 'lean Democratic' states.

    Montana Maybe But At What Cost (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by cdalygo on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:08:50 PM EST
    Sure, we might get Montana. But what is it worth if we lose Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania? (Not sure about Michigan but we aren't helping ourselves by not counting their votes).

    Parent
    The GOP won't spend a dime in those (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by RalphB on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:10:55 PM EST
    little mountain west states, and won't have to either.  If you're gonna get them to spend, try CO and NM.  Just to throw money away, you might try spending a lot of Dem money in SC and GA.

    Parent
    Montana (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by Nasarius on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:21:02 PM EST
    With its 3 EVs, and current SUSA polling showing Obama losing 47-39? It might be flippable, but Obama's pandering aside, it doesn't "really count all that much" for winning the election.

    Parent
    Every EV counts the same (none / 0) (#21)
    by joejoejoe on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:40:00 PM EST
    If you add CO, IA, and MT to Kerry's '04 result you have a Democratic winner. I'm not saying that is the most likely course but it's one course and the idea is to give yourself the most paths to victory. In the scenario I just gave you (add CO,IA,MT) -- Montana is the difference between winning and losing but that is a simplistic way of looking at it.

    In a 271-267 Democratic EV win EVERY STATE in the win column would be the difference between winning and losing and adding one small 3EV state tips the election.

    Parent

    I think it is unlikely (5.00 / 2) (#25)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:20:50 AM EST
    Colorado will go Democratic...It's not all Denver, Boulder, Aspen and Telluride.

    The only reason I'm a little hesitant is because Romney killed McCain in the caucuses. So the Democratic candidate has a chance, but in my view, not enough to call it a "toss-up" between the Dems and McCain.

    Parent

    add CO, IA, and MT (none / 0) (#31)
    by TeresaInPa on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:21:36 AM EST
    lose PA, NJ and OH.  He might win CO IA and MT... maybe... but he will lose the rust belt states and NJ.  How's that a winning strategy?

    Parent
    Yes, but... (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by joc on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:13:18 AM EST
    Schweitzer, Baucus, and Tester are Montanans.

    What I mean is that Democrats (even Republicans) in Washington are viewed differently than the locals, who will be able to help out some, but you're bucking a whole lot of history there. Only two Democrats won the state in the last 50 years. LBJ won the year of the landslide over Goldwater (44 states to 6), and Bill Clinton in 1992 (when he garnered less than 38% of the vote, to GHWB's 35% and HRP's 26%). Neither Kerry nor Gore broke 40%.

    I love Montana. I lived there for eight wonderful years, but I don't think there's a realistic chance of either Clinton or Obama winning it this year without a major meltdown of the Republicans.

    FYI: if you haven't checked out uselectionatlas.org, you might want to give it a look. It has lots of information about elections, past and present.


    Parent

    In 2004 (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:24:58 AM EST
    Montana went for Bush over Kerry by 20 points, 59% to 39%.

    Parent
    50 State Strategy (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by 1jane on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:31:02 AM EST
    Montana is on the map thanks to Dean's 50 state strategy. Every state has DNC field representatives and have had since Dean took the leasership of the Democratic Party. The Montana Governor is very popular as are the 2 Dem Senators. With the high level of dissatisfaction with the Republican Party don't count Montana out.

    Parent
    Gov. Ran With Republican Lt. Gov (none / 0) (#28)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:30:56 AM EST
    This might explain part of it

    Brian Schweitzer, a farmer from Whitefish, began campaigning for the Democratic nomination over a year before the primary.[1] He had narrowly lost the Senate race to Conrad Burns in 2000. In February 2004 he announced that liberal Republican state senator John Bohlinger would be his running mate for the post of Lieutenant Governor. This would be the first bipartisan gubernatorial team since the Montana Constitution was amended in 1972 to require Governors and Lieutenant Governors to run as a team.[2]


    Parent
    Yes and no (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by joc on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:15:19 AM EST
    It is true that Bohlinger made the ticket a little more palatable to moderate Republicans (of which Bohlinger is one), but a much bigger help was coming after Judy Martz. She was a horrible governor. Her approval rating for about the last two years of her 1 term hovered in the teens. She announced almost a full year before the election that she would not run again.

    The cause of her low approval was in part due to a scandal involving her chief policy advisor, Shane Hedges, who was drunk driving accident that killed his passenger. He then moved the body of the passenger to try and make it look like they were the one driving. Judy Martz, herself, cleaned Hedges' clothes before the police arrived!

    There was also the time that she said,

    "My husband has never battered me, but then again, I've never given him a reason to."

    Schweitzer's great, but running after Martz would have helped any Democrat.

    Parent

    holy crisp (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by ColumbiaDuck on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 10:04:20 AM EST
    I'd never heard that before.  That's bad.

    Parent
    Plus Marc Racicot (5.00 / 2) (#46)
    by eleanora on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 11:56:33 AM EST
    (the R gov for eight years before Martz) started out really popular, but left the state in a huge budgetary mess. He convinced the Leg to sell Montana Power to out of state interests, thereby gutting the retirement investments of a lot of older people. Schweitzer was seen as the champion of older Montanans, taking them on bus trips to Canada to buy cheaper prescription meds, and he had good solid economic plans. His straightforward, down-to-earth personality helped, plus the fact that he's as smart as they come. He's got the budget back on keel and is cruising to relection with a 67% approval rating.

    Racicot is a good friend of GW Bush, went on to be the Republican party chair in the 2004 election, which explains a lot about how that election went. He's a sneaky, nasty little man, IMO, later became a lobbyist for Enron and big insurance companies.

    Parent

    Speaking 2 hours apart (5.00 / 2) (#15)
    by magster on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:12:33 PM EST
    Do Obama and Clinton try to talk when their schedules overlap.  I'd like to see them agree on a common narrative against McCain.

    no, it was so they didn't have to (none / 0) (#26)
    by Jeralyn on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 12:21:42 AM EST
    run into each other, according to one of the news articles.

    Parent
    Caucuses Are Detrimental to Party Building (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by CoralGables on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:14:38 PM EST
    It's a shame these "little caucus states" didn't hold regular primaries this year when voter registration is climbing and turnout is climbing among the democrats.

    They keep talking about caucuses as party building tools. Nothing could be further from the truth. The primaries in Texas and Ohio and Pennsylvania where everyone can go vote, because people have had enough of Bush, is what builds the party. Thousands of people don't register to spend the day caucusing. They register so they can go vote because they want to end the disaster we currently have in office.

    By having caucuses we are taking people out of the process at the very time we want everyone to have a voice and to get involved. All these little states might want to work on party building by letting the people vote next time

    Caucuses are actually a way for the party (5.00 / 3) (#19)
    by RalphB on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:24:19 PM EST
    hacks to have more control in normal years.  For instance, in the TX caucus very few people would normally have elected a third of the delegates.  Very undemocratic and hardly an exercise in party building.  

    I know some people this year who caucused in TX who say they will never do it again, no matter what.  Their experience really sucked.  Primaries are the way and the path going forward.

    Parent

    Nonsense! (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by kenoshaMarge on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:50:09 AM EST
    Montana is Primary State (5.00 / 3) (#18)
    by Dan the Man on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:22:54 PM EST
    In case Obama doesn't realize it.

    his speech makes you wonder :-) (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by RalphB on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:25:49 PM EST
    Here's an NYT op ed on Montana and (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by oculus on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:17:40 AM EST
    the primary: BIG SKY SLUGFEST

    They wont use Wright, not much anyway (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Radix on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:54:21 AM EST
    They've got all this and more.  This was posted over at Washington Monthly, by a poster named Mike. The links are for a site called Left Coaster.

    "...Let's start paying attention to what the candidates say.... And the only thing we have to remember about Obama is the wonderful speech against the Iraq War he gave in 2002 when he was in the Senate. Al at 2:13 PM
    Agreed: "Let me be clear: ending this war is not going to be easy. There will be dangers involved. We will have to make tactical adjustments, listening to our commanders on the ground, to ensure that our interests in a stable Iraq are met, and to make sure that our troops are secure." - Obama. By-the-way, Obama had other things to say about the Iraq war: He was hedging as late as 2006

    ....Would Obama have acted differently had he been in Washington or had he had the benefit
    of the arguments and the intelligence that the administration was offering to the Congress
    debating that resolution? During the 2002-2003 time frame, he was a minor local official
    uninvolved in the national debate on the war so we can only judge from his own statements prior
    to the 2008 campaign. Obama repeated these points in a whole host of interviews prior to
    announcing his candidacy. On July 27, 2004, he told the Chicago Tribune on Iraq: "There's
    not much of a difference between my position and George Bush's position at this stage." In
    his book, The Audacity of Hope, published in 2006, he wrote, "...on the merits I didn't consider
    the case against war to be cut-and- dried." And, in 2006, he clearly said, "I'm always careful to
    say that I was not in the Senate, so perhaps the reason I thought it was such a bad idea was that I
    didn't have the benefit of US intelligence. And for those who did, it might have led to a different
    set of choices."....

    Hmmm, sounds like equivocation, yes it does.

    Who speaks for Obama? not Samantha?

    ....... a top Obama foreign policy advisor Samantha Power made the case on British television
    (video link included) that Obama's pandering rhetoric on a withdrawal of troops from Iraq was
    just that...:

    The host, Stephen Sackur, challenged her:"So what the American public thinks is acommitment to get combat forces out in 16 months isn't a commitment isn't it?"
    "You can't make a commitment in March 2008 about what circumstances will be like in
    January of 2009," she said. "He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he's crafted as a
    presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator. He will rely upon a plan - an operational plan - that he
    pulls together in consultation with people who are on the ground to whom he doesn't have daily
    access now, as a result of not being the president. So to think - it would be the height of ideology
    to sort of say, 'Well, I said it, therefore I'm going to impose it on whatever reality greets me.'"
    "It's a best-case scenario," she said again."



    Silly thing to say when (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ben Masel on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:34:52 PM EST
    Montana has yet to pick delegates.

    she didn't say that tonight (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Jeralyn on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:38:17 PM EST
    That's a quote from Politico in February that had nothing to do with Montana.

    She hasn't spoken yet tonight.

    Parent

    great to see tired old conventional (none / 0) (#23)
    by seabos84 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:45:42 PM EST
    wisdom trotted out at 'THE TRUTH'.

    while barack's kumbaya-ism is a bunch of silly happy happy nonsense

    this kind of DLC-ish conventional wisdom has lead to the great wins of 1988, 2000, 2002, 2004, OOOPS on 2006!

    AND HRC and bill caving to the right wing nuts for 16 years,

    cuz the conventional wisdom of the carvilles / mcaulliffes / schrums ... is focused on compromising away everything.

    yawn.

    the Dem party is a incompetent shadow of an opposition party - it isn't even an opposition party - due in large part to all this kind of conventional wisdom compromising.
    rmm.

    You are (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by rooge04 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:16:11 AM EST
    not building any confidence in your candidate with arguments like those.

    Parent
    Are you serious? (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by Davidson on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:47:53 AM EST
    I live in Texas and based on what some of the conservatives I've spoken too have been saying there is a very real chance that the state will go for Obama.

    I'll bet my life there is no chance Obama will carry TX.  It won't even be close.  The man is running against John McCain for crying out loud (Do not underestimate him).  Texas is solid red.

    Don't take my word for it.  Go outside your circle of conservative friends and talk to the state GOP and tell them what you think.  Seriously.

    Parent

    Or try the Dems (none / 0) (#35)
    by Davidson on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:50:03 AM EST
    can you read? seriously ? (none / 0) (#36)
    by seabos84 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:11:50 AM EST
    I wrote:

    "while barack's kumbaya-ism is a bunch of silly happy happy nonsense "

    I'm missing the kool-aid - ism of many barack supporters in that statement.

    I think he's gonna be just like the man from Hope was 16 years ago - a sell out. I hope not.

    What is the chance that the wife of the man from Hope ain't gonna sell us out, given her history of voting how her elitist rich corporate buddies tell her to vote ...? less than the chance barack isn't gonna sell us out.

    whoopee!

    rmm.  

    Parent

    I live in Fort Worth (none / 0) (#47)
    by txpolitico67 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:17:04 PM EST
    and in 2004, this place gave Bush the second largest pluarility in the NATION.  There are over 2 million in the area.  You really think that they are going to just roll over and go for Bush?  

    Obama did well in the AA communities.  But to say that he could carry N Tx in the GE is a dream.  Austin, you bet. A lot of liberals there.  But that's it.  Dallas could be in play, but I doubt it once more of the Wright crap comes out.

    Parent