NC Poll - Obama By 9

By Big Tent Democrat

A new North Carolina poll:

Democrat Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 35 percent to 26 percent among likely voters in North Carolina's May 6 Democratic primary. But nearly four in 10 are still undecided. . . . Among likely primary voters, the two virtually split the support of white voters and women while Obama has a strong -- 59 percent to 7 percent -- lead among African Americans.

This poll seems extremely suspect to me. The undecided number is ridiculously high. The demographics of the expected turnout is not offered. Obam's A-A number are obviously too low (his white numbers seem high as well).

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    seems like it changes every day (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Turkana on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:07:15 PM EST
    if there's a poll today that looks bad for one candidate, just wait a few days and there will be another that looks good for the same candidate. one could alternate making the rec lists at daily kos and mydd, simply by rotating polls.

    Well, the margin is pretty close (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 05:57:17 PM EST
    to what SUSA said a few weeks ago.

    They supposedly have another one in the field, so we should have some more info this week.

    where's the raw data? (none / 0) (#2)
    by wasabi on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:02:41 PM EST
    Did I miss it somewhere in the article?

    According to the poll, the number one issue with voters is "trust"?  They value trustworthiness over experience.

    Were other concerns, such as the war, the economy, healthcare up there on the list?  Seems like a strange poll.  Maybe that's why the numbers leave so many undecided?

    How can people be so silly again.... (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Maria Garcia on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:08:36 PM EST
    ...they trusted GWB and look where that got them. I think the one thing that the American people will never learn is how to stop being gullible.

    An excellent question (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by vigkat on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:41:23 PM EST
    But not one for which there is an obvious answer.  I feel now the same disconnect from and consternation with the candidacy of GWB.  I know, I know, it sounds overly exaggerated, but the fact remains; that's how it feels to me.

    I know (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by nell on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:42:52 PM EST
    It is crazy. I used to cringe when George Bush spoke and I would press mute...now, I cringe when Obama speaks and I change the channel...I just find him to be arrogant and disparaging most of the time...

    Really looks like lousy methodology (none / 0) (#17)
    by Cream City on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:36:03 PM EST
    See the "How the Poll Was Conducted" link. It's a local poll by the newspaper and a tv station, and the info includes this: "The sampling error for Democratic and Republican primary voters is 4.9 percentage points. The practical difficulties of conducting public opinion surveys may introduce other sources of error that cannot be measured, such as individuals who refused to be interviewed, households not included because they do not have land-lines and respondents who give 'socially desirable' answers." This really is outdated. A 5-point margin of error is above the norm. Plus, good pollsters follow up on non-respons, have means to ensure cell-phones are called, and do not fall back on the "Bradley Effect" excuse, as it doesn't apply to primaries, anyway (and is considerably disputed to this day).

    another rasmussen poll has obama up by (none / 0) (#4)
    by demps on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:10:27 PM EST
    twenty three. It seems he has the advantage in NC that she has in Pennsylvania.

    Obama has the media advantage (4.00 / 4) (#5)
    by Josey on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:23:35 PM EST
    The same media that sold us Bush in 2000, the Iraq War - and now Obama.

    But they'll run with it. (none / 0) (#6)
    by inclusiveheart on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 06:41:30 PM EST
    Chuck Todd, who I generally like, said something today that I thought was pretty goofy.  He was saying something about how Obama had to win all of the states that had a beach on the Atlantic or that people would think he was a failure - even though if you count Florida he already lost one and even though it really seems odd to base success or failure on access to the Atlantic ocean.

    Some days I think these people are really doing strange contortions in order to create goal posts in this race.

    Beach on the Atlantic? (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by ineedalife on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:33:31 PM EST
    Like Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Florida. Those states?

    The Atlantic sweep is what (none / 0) (#12)
    by inclusiveheart on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:10:34 PM EST
    I think he said and Clinton won NY.  The whole thing was completely weird.  I really don't understand what he was talking about.  I've been watching politics for several decades now and I don't recall anyone ever making the argument that winning all of the states on the Atlantic coast was an important political strategy beyond having all the states.  He confused me with his fixation on the Atlantic.

    wasabai, (none / 0) (#10)
    by cpinva on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 07:46:38 PM EST
    the only raw data i could find in that poll was that all respondents were registered voters, they all indicated they planned to vote in the primary and it was roughly 50/50 dems and repubs.

    no demographics with respect to gender, race, age, education level, etc.

    it does seem kind of odd that at this stage of the game 40% of the respondents would still be undecided. must be the same crowd that waits until 11pm christmas eve to do their shopping!

    I notice the last post only cites polls (none / 0) (#14)
    by kenosharick on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 08:57:12 PM EST
    that are favorable towards Obama. Kind of like the national media. They are doing all they can to sway the polls and election by drilling  over and over that Hillary is toast which may cause many voters to "jump on the bandwagon." or not even bother voting- since our trusted (HA-HA) news media has declared the race over.

    karela (none / 0) (#16)
    by waldenpond on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:34:20 PM EST
    is new. Today is karela's first day.  She will catch on that we already have resident Obama pollsters and that the info can sometimes get redundant.

    Evidently... (none / 0) (#19)
    by white n az on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 10:54:56 PM EST
    karela has just suffered from being silenced because I tried to post a reply 2 times and it failed and when I looked...the original post to which I was replying disappeared.

    RCP doesn't seem to have all polls lately (none / 0) (#15)
    by Marvin42 on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 09:42:22 PM EST
    I have seen a couple of new ones with Clinton up 9-13 points, and they are missing from the average for PA.

    perhaps (none / 0) (#20)
    by hlr on Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 11:38:03 PM EST
    they were talking about exit polls.

    alas no. (none / 0) (#22)
    by PastorAgnostic on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:52:31 AM EST
    they were talking about the states already decided.

    No references to Obama's middle name please (none / 0) (#23)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:58:20 AM EST
    Keep comment ON topic please.

    Read the commenting rules please.