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PPP IN Poll: Clinton By 8

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:38:07 PM EST
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PPP's Indiana poll has Clinton up 8, 50-42. The story is familiar:

[Clinton] leads 54-38 with white voters [(85% of the vote)], 54-39 with female voters [(55%)], and 55-36 with voters over the age of 65 [(21%)]. Obama, as usual, does well with black voters (73-21) [(12%)] and voters 18-29 (50-40) [10%].

Indiana has an open primary but it’s unclear who will benefit from that. Clinton leads 48-47 with the 14% of voters who described themselves as Republicans. Obama has the 52-37 edge with voters who described their affiliation as being ‘other’ than either Democratic or Republican. Those voters made up 12% of the survey.

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    PPP IN Poll: Clinton By 8 | 14 comments (14 topical)

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    Down Ballot (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:45:35 PM EST
    It will be interesting to see if PPP looked at down ballot issues in Indiana as they did in NC.  

    BTW, in NC, Clinton voters seem to care much more about down ballot races than Obama voters.  Quelle surprise.

    -I pointed this trend out last week but it continues to be true- Clinton supporters seem to be much more tuned in to the rest of the ballot than Obama supporters. In the Senate race 49% of Obama supporters are undecided while just 38% of Clinton supporters are. In some of the other races the differences are even more vast- 70% of Obama supporters for Insurance Commissioner to 52% of Clinton supporters for instance. This phenomenon is probably a result of Obama bringing new people into politics who might not follow or be that interested in the other races.

    Someone tell me again how Obama is going to be this huge boost to down ticket Dems. and help us build a party and not simply a movement centered on him?   And if they could do that while citing some sort of empirical data, I'd really appreciate it.  Because this - like the findings in Texas of more Obama supporters abstaining in down-ballot races - does not seem to indicate Obama is going to be some miracle worker for other Dems.

    I think the demographics are wrong. (none / 0) (#2)
    by ajain on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 01:51:13 PM EST
    I think the electorate is younger in IN and makes up a bigger portion of voters.

    U.S. Census Bureau (none / 0) (#7)
    by standingup on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:48:12 PM EST
    has the ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates: 2006 for Indiana available for a comparison.  

    Parent
    Even if Sen. Clinton wins (none / 0) (#3)
    by HeadScratcher on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:04:29 PM EST
    Even if she wins Indiana by 10 points she will only net less than 10 pledged delegates.

    the only things these polls and future primaries can do is have a PROFOUND influence on the superdelegates.

    it isn't about the pledged delegates (none / 0) (#4)
    by Double Standard on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:26:34 PM EST
    it is about the popular vote.

    Parent
    Correct (none / 0) (#5)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:45:55 PM EST
    But it doesn't matter.

    Parent
    this could be interesting (none / 0) (#6)
    by Kensdad on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:48:11 PM EST
    if hillary does well with independents and republicans in indiana that would be another huge boost to her argument...

    next tuesday is taking on more and more importance as each day passes.

    Yes It Is and SD's Would Be Foolish Not To (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:54:12 PM EST
    see which way the wind is blowing (hint: in Hillary's direction!).  I will be glad to see obama go, tired of looking at him.  And, I don't think his press conference today will get him off the hook, i.e. Rev. Wright.

    Parent
    A PPP pollster (none / 0) (#9)
    by magster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 02:58:54 PM EST
    apparently acknowledged modifying turnout models in response to their miss in PA.

    However, that same pollster stressed that there was genuine movement towards Clinton (in NC) not attributable to this change in method.

    Hmm (none / 0) (#10)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:01:58 PM EST
    What would we think of a pollster who refused to change their methodology after it produced inaccurate results?  I'm having trouble understanding the significance of this story.

    Parent
    It's not a scandal or anything (none / 0) (#12)
    by magster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:22:49 PM EST
    The old poll was old method, and the new poll is the new method, so you can't really look at the old PPP polls for an accurate trendline.  

    Parent
    Youth vote for Hillary! (none / 0) (#11)
    by jfung79 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:11:00 PM EST
    As a young person, I'm glad to see Hillary doing so well in the youth vote in Indiana in this poll, only 10 points behind Obama!  

    The media often ignores in labeling Obama as the monolithically favored candidate of youth that Hillary won the youth vote in California, and that she often does better in the votes among those aged 25-29 than she does among those 18-24.

    She also won the white youth vote in Pennsylvania, which I don't think the media picked up on.  

    I agree, agree, agree for every state (none / 0) (#14)
    by Cream City on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:43:23 PM EST
    where you staunch young Clinton backers buck the peer pressure and stick to your principles.  Sounds a lot like Clinton herself at your age, huh?

    My daughter says the same thing -- why do the media ignore her, a young Clinton supporter?  I tell her it's good practice for being an older, scratch that, more mature woman like her mom.  We're always invisible!  

    But you can use that status, too, as it makes us good at the politics of stealth.  So keep it up and maybe the media will have to face up to the existence of young Clinton backers.  But don't worry, we know you're there -- and you give us real hope. :-)

    Parent

    Clinton Up 36 in KY - SUSA (none / 0) (#13)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 03:27:28 PM EST
    See here.

    PPP IN Poll: Clinton By 8 | 14 comments (14 topical)

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