SUSA NC Poll: Obama By 5; Ras NC Poll: Obama By 14
In the latest SUSA NC poll, Obama's lead is down to 5 (More on the flip on the SUSA poll. In the latest Ras NC poll, Barack Obama maintains a healthy lead, though down from his previous 23 point margin. The demographics are the political destiny again:
The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries—Clinton leads by fifteen points among White voters while Obama leads 80% to 11% among African-Americans. Clinton does well among White Women and older voters while Obama leads among those under 65.
We can figure out the crosstabs based on Ras' turnout model:
Fifty-six percent (56%) of survey respondents were women and 44% men. Sixty-four percent (64%) were White, 33% African-American, and 3% some other racial heritage. Ten percent (10%) were under 30 and 55% over 65.
By my math, Ras has whites splitting 52-37 Clinton, assuming a 50/50 split among the 3% of the vote that is neither white nor African American. That leaves 11% of the white vote undecided and 9% of the A-A vote undecided.
On the SUSA poll, it is about white flight from Obama:
Based on polling results, white voters are key. Since January, Clinton had led among Carolina whites by 14, 19, 17, 22 and 23 points. Now by 31 points.
More from the crosstabs - Clinton leads with whites by 61-30 (61% of the vote), Obama leads with A-As, 88-11 (33% of the vote).
By Big Tent Democrat
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