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Clinton Hangs On, Obama Drops in Polls, With Negative Media Attention

By p lukasiak, Section Diaries
Posted on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 07:48:17 PM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Obama, McCain, polls, 2008 General Election (all tags)
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Aka Obama's Sour Apples to Apples, Part Four

Between late February and mid-April, voters in nine states that should/could be "Democratic" in the 2008 Presidential Election were exposed to a considerable amount of negative informative concerning both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The negative information had little impact on how Hillary Clinton was regarded when compared to John McCain.  But it has had a major impact on their perception of Barack Obama, and on the perception of the relative merits of Obama and McCain.

Overall, the worst that can be said about Clinton is the negative press attention has resulted in more previously undecided voters in certain demographic categories expressing a preference for McCain rather than for Clinton.   But Obama is not merely losing "undecided" voters in most demographic categories because of negative media coverage, a significant percentage of voters who had supported Obama over McCain have switched their preferences.

crossposted at Correntewire

The impact of negative media stories can be seen in the changes in the support of White voters for both candidates in hypothetical match-ups against McCain, and the margins among White voters in those match-ups.  Clinton gained support among White voters overall, but her margins against McCain declined in that demographic as more previously undecided voters expressed a preference for McCain.   Obama, on the other hand, saw a decrease in White voter support, and his margins against McCain among White voters dropped precipitously.

These conclusions are drawn from an "apples to apples" comparison of Survey USA polling done April 11-13 in nine states (California, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin)  with similar polling done in late February as part the SUSA 50 state poll (conducted Feb. 26-28).  

This is the third of a multipart series examining the polling data in these states.  Part One provided an overview of the polling results, and showed how Clinton was doing better than Obama in 8 of those 9 states.  Part TWO provided an overview of key demographic categories, and took a close look at male and female voters.  Part Three examined "Party Identification" and "Ideological" demographic breakdowns, with an emphasis on the "Independent" and "Moderate" subcategories.  Part Four will look at the media context in which these changes took place, and examine the impact of "new" information on Clinton and Obama in the White voter demographic.

THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TWO POLLS - AND ITS OVERALL IMPACT

In order to understand the differences that appear in the late February and mid-April polling of the Clinton v McCain and Obama v McCain match-ups, it is necessary to consider the media environment prior to the February poll, and what that environment looked like between the two polls.

In late February, Obama was at a high point; having won 11 straight post Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses.  Texas polls (and the media) were suggesting that Obama would win in Texas, and perhaps even in Ohio.   Up until that point, Obama had received very little in the way of negative media attention and scrutiny, while Clinton was a constant target of attacks in the media.

But between the two polls, a number of significant events for the campaigns took place.  On the whole, negative media attention and scrutiny was focused on Obama during the first three weeks after the February poll was taken, but that focus shifted to Clinton in the weeks prior to the mid-April poll.


    ·    Hillary Clinton released her "3 AM" ad on February 29th.



    ·    The Rezko trial began on March 6th and increased scrutiny of Obama's relationship with Rezko was not far behind.



    ·    The "Jeremiah Wright" controversy erupted --ABC was the first broadcast network to feature the story, on March 13th



    ·    Clinton's "appointment calendar" from her years as First Lady was released on March 19th



    ·    The "phantom Bosnian snipers" story received a great deal of media attention, beginning around March 21st.



    ·    Clinton released her tax returns on April 4th.

All of this information was being digested by voters in the time between the two polls.  In addition, stories about Obama's "bitter/clinging" remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser were gaining currency just as the April poll was being taken - the "bitter/clinging" story first appeared on April 11th, the first of the three days of April polling.

In other words, between the two polls, the media was full of stories raising questions about the character and experience of both Clinton and Obama.   Clinton has weathered these storms - despite all the negative press that was concentrated close to the mid-April polls, Clinton's average margins against McCain held firm.  But the questions raised in early March about Obama's character and experience had a strong negative impact on his margins against McCain.



CLINTON AND OBAMA MARGINS AGAINST McCAIN
    CLINTON MARGINS    OBAMA MARGINS



    Late Feb  mid-April    Late Feb  mid-April  



CA    10%       13%            11%        7%



IA    -5%        -6%             9%         7%



MA    18%       15%             7%        2%



MN     4%         1%             7%         6%



MO    -4%         1%            -6%         -8%



NM     0%        -3%             7%         -6%



OH    10%        11%            10%         -2%



OR    -5%         1%             8%         9%



WI     4%         0%            11%         5%



AVG    3.6%        3.7%           7.1%        2.2%

    ·    Clinton was behind McCain in 3 states in February, and in 2 in April.  Obama was trailing McCain in 1 state in February, and 3 in April.



    ·    Clinton maintained the double digit leads she held in three states (CA, MA, OH).  In the three states that Obama had double digits leads in February, those leads declined to the single digits in 2 states (CA, MI), and in one state Obama is now trailing McCain (OH)

CHANGE IN MARGINS AGAINST MCCAIN FEBRUARY TO APRIL
    CLINTON       OBAMA    



CA      3%        -4%



IA     -1%        -2%



MA     -3%&n