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Why Indiana Is The Test

Barack Obama will win North Carolina by double digits. The demography of North Carolina assures it. And that big win will help assure Obama's hold on the pledged delegate lead and improve his chances for holding the popular vote lead. North Carolina matters.

But Indiana matters more. Why? Because the one unanswered question - the one I have been asking since Super Tuesday is can Barack Obama win the big contested states by capturing enough women, seniors and white working class men. Since Super Tuesday, only in Wisconsin and Virginia has Obama broken through 40% of the white vote in contested primaries, even while he was running the string of 12 victories in February. Let's review the data on the flip.

By Big Tent Democrat

Obama has won the white vote in the following primaries and caucuses - Iowa, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Virginia, Hawaii, and Wisconsin.

Of this group, my personal view is that the significant results were in Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nebraska, Washington, Virginia and Wisconsin. In those states I believe you can reasonably argue that Barack Obama is more electable than Hillary Clinton and that it matters (for example it does not matter that Obama is more electable in Illinois nor does it matter that Hillary Clinton is more electable in New York. It does not matter that Barack Obama is more electable in Utah and it does not matter that Hillary Clinton is more electable in Oklahoma. These states are NOT in play.)

What state did Barack Obama's inability to garner more women, seniors, Latinos and white working class voters hurt him and his electability? You know the roster, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Florida (with the asterisk if you like). Michigan we do not know.

It is as simple as this - if Obama can not do better with these groups, then the traditional Democratic electoral map for winning in November is at more risk with Obama than with Clinton. Of course, Obama is also an electoral map expander - see Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, etc.

The choice is the same as it always was - the higher risk, higher potential benefit of Obama versus the more secure path with less potential benefit of Hillary Clinton.

Indiana is a favorable ground for Obama to assuage the fear of the risks. It is next to Illinois. Northern Indiana is a Chicago suburb. It is an Open Primary. He has all the money in the world. He has nothing to fear in North Carolina (a narrow or wide victory does not matter). He can go all out in Indiana to finish Hillary Clinton off in this race. By beating her in Indiana.

To do that he must do better with white working class voters and white women. It is that simple. Indiana is a fair test. Not because Indiana will be in play in November (it won't.) But because the demographics give Obama the test he must pass to resolve the electability doubts.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Why gamble? (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by Kathy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:20:59 AM EST
    Why not go with Clinton and make sure instead of taking the risk with Obama?  I've got relatives serving in Afghanistan.  I don't want to play with their lives.  Our country is in dire economic straits.  Torture is being committed in our name.  Our beloved Constitution is being trampled.

    Again, this is not the time to roll the dice.  

    Obama calculus (5.00 / 3) (#106)
    by cal1942 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:34:02 AM EST
    is astounding.  

    I can give BTD Colorado and Iowa but Hillary is as likely to win Nevada as Obama.  I can't give either Virginia simply because any gains in NoVa will be offset by an avalance in SeVa.

    Obama puts PA at risk as well as NJ and FL is out of the question. PA is a special case.  BTD can't expect Obama's Democrats for a Day to stick with him in the general and his 61% take of that group kept him away from a bigger blowout.

    Hillary has a good chance of expanding into Ohio, Arkansas and even Florida.

    So BTD can have Iowa and Colorado with 16 EVs and risk Pennsylvania's 21 EVs and New Jersey's 15.

    So I'll see your 16 EVs (hell I'll even give you VA to make it 29) and I'll raise you Hillary's potential to gain 53.

    I saw a head-to-head by state yesterday that showed Hillary with 289 EVs (sans Michigan)against McCain and Obama with 269 that gave him CO and IA.  There were 10 EVs as toss-up on Hillary's match-up and 15 on Obama's match-up.

    The latest of those polls was Apr 16.  PA  changed a few things.  Getting 60,000 new contributors in a day is significant when we consider that even including internet action, a very small percentage of the population contributes to political campaigns.

    John Paul Stevens is 88 years old and I'm not willing to take the risk on Obama.  In fact I would be queasy about Obama picking his successor and I don't trust ANY staff he might hire to give him a reasonable list to choose from.

    It's worth remembering that Congress can expand or contract any federal court at will.

    In the end Obama represents a risk in both the election and if nominated and elected a risk in office. In office he could well damage the Democratic party for years to come and may in the end splinter the party.

    [ Parent ]

    x (none / 0) (#164)
    by CognitiveDissonance on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:46:39 PM EST
    I agree, Cal1942, and you didn't even mention the latest stats for Mass - can you believe it? Obama even puts Mass in jeapordy! I'd always thought it was the most reliable democratic state. But others have reminded me that they have at times voted for republicans, including Mitt Romney for Governor and Reagan for President.

    I've come to believe that the meme that Obama expands the electoral map is just another Obama talking point that no one questions. Where is the proof of this? Because someone wins certain red states in a democratic primary proves nothing. Someone has to win those states. But there is no proof that it can be done in the general. I don't see Obama winning NV and CO over McCain in the general at all. And I've seen no polls that would even prove he could come close. This map expansion is a talking points for SD's. But hopefully, they can do their own research, because I doubt they'll find it to be true.


    [ Parent ]

    Massachusetts (none / 0) (#176)
    by cal1942 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 05:38:07 PM EST
    has gone Republican only 4 times since 1928.  Twice for Eisenhower, twice for Reagan.  Only state won by McGovern in 1972.

    Deep, deep blue.

    [ Parent ]

    Hmm (none / 0) (#168)
    by Steve M on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 01:46:53 PM EST
    No, I don't agree at all that a lot of the same people will be serving in either administration.  Unless you're talking about the career types who served under Bush as well, in which case I hope it's not those people who will be preparing the short lists.

    For a lot of political insiders, supporting Obama is about career opportunism, nothing more.  Everyone knows that if the Clintons get back in, it's going to be largely the same roster from the 90s, so Obama is the only hope for new people who want to get a foot in the door.  That's why it's unlikely to be the same lineup.

    [ Parent ]

    You'll never see this (none / 0) (#175)
    by cal1942 on Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 05:23:51 PM EST
    but it's interesting that you think I should be run out of town for expressing an opinion based on evidence.

    I originally thought that Obama's unity, post-partisn, reconciliation schtick was just that, schtick.  Through the months I've come to the conclusion that he may actually mean what he says.  Candidates usually do mean what they say.

    Setting aside for the moment Obama's economic policy team it's instructive to examine his attitude regarding his public responsibilities.  Specifically the Roberts nomination. Obama was impressed with Roberts intellegence and wanted to vote to confirm.  Obama said that if he were President he wouldn't want anyone to oppose one of his nominations for ideological reasons. Obama was stopped by his top aide Pete Rouse who told him that a vote for Roberts would come to damage him politically and then Rouse admonished Obama by saying "this is not some moot law school exercise."

    We're not talking about some young kid fresh out of school.  We're talking about a US Senator.  For Obama there was no consideration of what Roberts might do on the bench only that he, Obama, was impressed by Roberts peronally. I could inject something here about elitism but I'll resist.

    That's only a fragment.  But it's a telling anecdote.

    Given Obama's economic policy team I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of Republicans on an Obama White House staff and I wouldn't be surprised if Obama left any number of Bush appointees in various Federal agencies. Unity and all that. Now at this point some people would remind me of Republican Cabinet Secretaries in Democratic administrations. But then I'd remind them that at least since the Kennedy administration, Cabinet Secretaries have had ever decreasing roles in policy matters.  The exception has been the Bush II administration but only because of Bush himself and the old Rumsfeld/Cheney partnership.

    It's more important to consider staff positions below the Cabinet Secretary level and especially the White House staff and the Bureau of Management and Budget.

    People should be aware of the Obama team's economic conservatism.  A conservative economic staff is ill prepared to deal with the scale of economic problems that could confront the next President. Having a Democratic administration take the fall for an economic catastrophe is not in the nation's or the Party's long term interest. And make no mistake half measures to combat a serious multi-year recession will be fixed sqaurely on the party of the President that failed to take bold action. That's what happened to Hoover.  It wasn't the financial collapse it was the perception of inaction and insensitivity.

    To quickly wrap-up, I don't trust Obama based on the available clear evidence (let's not forget that Obama is a candidate with a scant public record - probably why the Jacobins love him; to them he respresents purity).  There is an internal war raging in the Democratic Party. If the wrong side wins it could spell major trouble.  Obama isn't worth the long term risk.

    [ Parent ]

    Obamamath (none / 0) (#11)
    by AnninCA on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:29:41 AM EST
    is still the meme, thanks to Pelosi telling the Americans it was all about delegate count.  LOL*

    She has to tackle Florida and MI, which is moving along nicely.  And win real voters, of course.

    Since Penn left, it seems her surrogates are speaking out more strongly and are doing a better job for her than he did.

    She's got to convince people that she's the real deal.

    [ Parent ]

    It's not just Obamamath. (1.00 / 1) (#28)
    by halstoon on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:37:35 AM EST
    Sen. Clinton's highest profile surrogates were not-so-long-ago touting the fact that the nomination fight is about winning delegates.

    Link

    My oh my how things change when you're losing.

    [ Parent ]

    Delegates (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by AnninCA on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:43:25 AM EST
    are important, but when neither candidate can reach the number, then other factors start to be in play.

    THAT is where we're at now.

    He hasn't and won't reach the number.

    [ Parent ]

    When Obama loses TX yet wins (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by hairspray on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:35:11 AM EST
    more delegates you have to wonder about just what delegate votes represent.

    [ Parent ]
    We're in the tie breaker now (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by jerry on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:40:57 AM EST
    even Rachel Maddow acknowledged last night that it is not about the delegates, it's about persuading superdelegates who vote their hearts and minds.

    The race then was for pledged delegates.  That race is over and ended up in a tie.

    The race now is to persuade the superdelegates.

    If you don't like this, persuade the Dems to reduce the number of superdelegates, and to come up with a different tie breaker.  Because the method "we"/"they" chose was NOT sudden death nor was it "most pledged delegates".

    If Clinton wins by persuading the superdelegates, there will have been precisely ZERO rules broken.

    [ Parent ]

    Clicked on your link... yawn (5.00 / 2) (#135)
    by tree on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:23:06 AM EST
    Wow, the Clinton surrogates were saying that the nomination is about winning delegates. What a revelation! I notice you seem to think that "delegates" only means "pledged delegates", when the quotes from your link clearly show that the Clinton campaign recognized that "delegates" means both types of delegates.

    Clue for you. It always was and is about getting delegates, and that includes both pledged and super delegates. I doubt that the Clinton surrogates now think that the nomination rules have somehow changed, and that the nomination now goes to whoever looks best in a pantsuit, or who makes Tweety's leg tingle. What has changed since early January is that neither candidate can win this solely by racking up enough pledged delegates to reach a majority, so that means  convincing enough supers to vote for them.

    The only other thing that's changed is that some Obama supporters are finally recognizing that the supers are not rubber stamps, and that the nomination rests not just in the hands of the pledged delegates.  

         

    [ Parent ]

    Okay. (1.00 / 1) (#161)
    by halstoon on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:29:29 PM EST
    Enjoy your pipe dream in which 85% of the remaining automatic delegates go to Clinton.

    I know her sheeple will not believe until she says it, so I'll leave you alone and allow you to await word fom your shepherd.

    [ Parent ]

    things changed because things changed (none / 0) (#84)
    by TeresaInPa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:12:36 AM EST
    the circumstances of the race are different for both candidates.

    [ Parent ]
    Nothing has changed (none / 0) (#144)
    by ding7777 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:42:12 AM EST
    Delegates include the SD's.  Hillary always said so.

    [ Parent ]
    Giving Clinton the nomination is a dice roll too (none / 0) (#34)
    by sarissa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:40:41 AM EST
    Because going with Clinton at this point in time will fracture the party.  Obama's pledge delegate lead is likely insurmountable.  

    She's the best candidate unless and until African-Americans, youth, and the far left wing of the party decide to sit it out after their client gets "screwed" or is made to "sit at the back of the bus."

    Better to put Obama forward this year, hope for the best (lol), and then run Hilary against a senile McCain in 2012.

    [ Parent ]

    You're forgetting (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:47:23 AM EST
    that Hillary has the most votes and is likely to have the most votes at the end.

    [ Parent ]
    When making the case (none / 0) (#125)
    by mbuchel on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:02:04 AM EST
    that she has the most votes, but it takes about 4 "ifs" to make your point true, then she's doesn't really have the most votes.  Sorry.

    [ Parent ]
    What four "ifs"? (5.00 / 1) (#141)
    by alexei on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:34:27 AM EST
    The votes in MI and FL are certified and the popular vote thus counts in those states.  The DNC took away the delegates, it does not have the power to take away the actual votes cast by voters.

    And the meme about Obama not being on the MI ballot, he voluntarily took his name off for political reasons; plus he was against a re-vote in MI.  Therefore, he gets no votes - it is ridiculous to have someone not on the ballot given votes.  That is stealing.  

    [ Parent ]

    Just ONE "if" (5.00 / 1) (#162)
    by tree on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:29:34 PM EST
    The same one that tripped up Gore in 2000....

    IF you count all the votes, she is ahead in the popular totals. That includes FL and MI and all the caucus states, including estimates for the four states that didn't release caucus vote totals.

    [ Parent ]

    more people have voted for her (none / 0) (#87)
    by TeresaInPa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:14:18 AM EST
    whether you want to count them or not and more of her voters vote McCain is she is not the nominee.
    Now do you want to try that argument again?

    [ Parent ]
    No, not what I'm getting at (none / 0) (#98)
    by sarissa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:22:58 AM EST
    Read my other comment in this thread.  I want Hilary as the nominee, preferably at the head of a unity ticket with Obama's enthusiastic support.

    If she is the nominee absent such support it will wreck the party for years to come and screw any chances she will ever be president.

    [ Parent ]

    If the youth sit it out, I'm going to blame (5.00 / 1) (#118)
    by jerry on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:49:12 AM EST
    the self-esteem movement.

    Turns out our precious snowflakes think the world revolves around their needs, they can do no wrong, and everything they do deserves a "Good Job! and a cookie."

    Jesus, I wish I had grown up in the "Good Job!" era.

    African Americans would have more of a reason for believing they had been betrayed, but that's why it is dangerous for people that should know better to stop demanding that superdelegates vote purely based on pledged delegate counts -- that was never their role.

    After Bush V. Gore we should all be able to discuss the role and importance of the popular vote, why we have an electoral college, it's pros and cons, and lots of other stuff too.

    [ Parent ]

    Read Krugman (5.00 / 1) (#155)
    by cal1942 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:11:09 PM EST
    today he makes the case in a compelling manner.

    If Hillary is the nominee the Democratic Party will stand out in stark contrast to the Republican Party.  With Obama as the nominee - not so much.

    It's of paramount importance that the Democratic Party be viewed as very different from the Republican Party.

    Your argument might apply to one election but falls apart in the long run.

    The "far left" you're talking about are the Jacobins who never have been fans of the party.  Their support has always been spotty. Many of these people supported Nader in 2000.

    So far as African-American voters are concerned I would expect them to turnout in numbers similar to past elections.  Not the very high turnout Obama's gotten in the primaries but in line with the past.  You're really underrating African-American voters.  They're among the smartest and most realistic voting groups in the country.

    The youth vote! Don't make me laugh.  The turnout has NEVER been great.  You think that even if Obama is the nominee that massive numbers of young people will turn out?  If the FAD in January was to go to an Obama rally it may well fade by November and probably will. Don't ever count on the youth vote.

    In the long term Obama is a threat to the Democratic Party because his campaign and other actions (see his economic staff) blurs the line between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.

    I believe that Clinton has the best chance to win this election with or without Obama's support (I don't expect he'll lend any support - it's just the kind of guy he is) but even if she were to lose, the Democratic Party isn't hurt in the long run because she will have run as a Democrat.  If Obama is nominated and loses (IMO a strong possibility) he will not have run as a Democrat and that hurts possibly even in the next election.  If he were to run and win, given the evidence we have to work with, could bring the 'there's not a nickel's worth of difference' meme into full bloom and really splinter the party.

    I've seen many ups and downs.  I saw Republicans get disemboweled in 1964 only to win four years later (with the help I might add of the Jacobins you seem to think represent the future of the party) and watched the McGovern debacle (supported by your Jacobins) followed by scandal and a Democratic return to power.  It goes on and on.  The imperative is that the Democratic nominee run as a Democrat.

    [ Parent ]

    Hillary is 60. I really think this is her (none / 0) (#114)
    by hairspray on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:42:56 AM EST
    last best chance.  At 64 can you imagine what the media and blogs will do with "that old woman?"  I do know that Hispanics in the southwest have not been an agressive voting block. Just ask Texans. Obama will lose them in the GE.  There will be millions of women over 50 who will either not vote or will become independents, finally realizing the party will throw them over for the "new kid on the block." It actually cuts both ways.  

    [ Parent ]
    But...I broke through their logic (5.00 / 4) (#8)
    by Stellaaa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:27:57 AM EST
    Obama would not have had a problem with the demographic if Hillary did not stay in the race.  She ruined it for him.  So, yes, if Hillary is not there he gets some of the demographic is their argument without a question, cause these people are not the Reagan Dems, they are the core dems who will vote for any Dem.  But look at Krugman today, he tells it like it is, why the Clinton dems will not give up.  Cause the party is trying to go away from core Dem issues.  

    Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by AnninCA on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:36:46 AM EST
    also makes it clear that the core Democrats must decide if they want to fight this or not.  It's really up to people.

    She'll keep going, but she's tapped out her own money sources.

    So it's a true populist movement at this point.

    [ Parent ]

    Axelrod stated they don't need WC (5.00 / 1) (#132)
    by waldenpond on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:17:07 AM EST
    white's.  His clip would make a nice discussion.  He said those 'voters' go Republican.  Rahm Emanual said November will be about the suburbs (not the rural areas).  The Dems have decided to ignore the working class and focus on the middle class.  That's why I was watching the demographics in Penn.  Clinton made inroads in to the suburbs and wealthier Obama demographics in Penn. Obama will be the nom and Obama has problems, but voters will line up behind him like good little loyal dems and he will attract indies and Repubs and change politics 4eveeeeerrrr.  

    My pony is named 'toast.'

    [ Parent ]

    Pony power (none / 0) (#138)
    by tree on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:28:44 AM EST
    Ha! Best laugh of the morning at your pony's name!

    [ Parent ]
    Mine is also "Toast"! (none / 0) (#143)
    by alexei on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:39:04 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    MIne was named (none / 0) (#148)
    by waldenpond on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:52:48 AM EST
    'pansy' for the candidate I view as a delicate flower, but I got in trouble for that one. :(

    I guess I could go with 'Pillow'? :)

    Are you getting the pink pony with purple dots on it's rump and a pink mane and tail?  Have you bought a comb and brush yet?

    I'm hoping for one of the fancy ones that are flocked with fake velvet.  The tail is hard plastic, but it is oh soooo soft on the cheek, I think it all balances out.  I can't wait to get a saddle!


    [ Parent ]

    These states you cited (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by felizarte on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:30:07 AM EST
    that voted for Barack, would they still all vote for him now after knowing more about him? e.g. the 'bitter/cling' remark, Rev. Wright and Ayers? An independent polling of those states will be useful for the super delegates before they make their decision, especially if Indiana (tie-breaker per Obama) goes for Clinton.

    To That Point (none / 0) (#85)
    by flashman on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:12:38 AM EST
    I would like to add Hillary's comment, and what it means in the context of this article.  As pointed out, Obama has a good opportunity to make a strong statment.  However, Hillary has been saying for some time that the voters may be having second thoughts about that person they've voted for, her "buyer's remose" statement.  Now, she has a chance to offer some evidence.  In addition to winning IL., Obama has won the neighboring states of WI, IA & MO.  Now, these states have much in common in terms of demographics and ideology.  So does Indiana, and if Hillary can win big there, her point is soundly made, ( a point that Kieth Bloberman spun to stupidity a couple nights ago )

    [ Parent ]
    It's the tie-breaker (5.00 / 7) (#16)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:32:04 AM EST
    And I think the key is in what Krugman said, which is essentially that the working class doesn't want "transcendental" they want bread on the table.

    Link to Krugman

    Obama hasn't shown in any way that the working class is his targt, so I suspect Indianna won't go well for him.

    Why consider Indiana the test (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by oculus on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:34:25 AM EST
    for whether Obama can garner the votes of women, etc., if there is little likelihood Indiana will vote Dem. in the GE?  That is like looking at Obamaàs wins in Alaska and Oklahoma, is it not?

    It's his last chance (5.00 / 2) (#24)
    by Kathy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:36:29 AM EST
    to challenge her base and prove that he can win it.

    Even the Mighty O said Indiana is a tie-breaker.

    [ Parent ]

    Is Indiana an Ethanol state? (none / 0) (#128)
    by dotcommodity on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:10:18 AM EST
    His energy plan is written by two ethanol lobbyists and a nuke power lobbyist. (bipartisanpolicycenter.org)While nuke power has not become a resource curse because most hold their noses...ethanol does mean huge income swings in those states, making them prone to whichever party provides lavish funding just as oil states were, prone to the resource curse.

    Ethanol is a decidely mixed blessing and it is easier to be flexible if you are not married to it, via lobbyist-written energy plans.

    [ Parent ]

    Hillary (none / 0) (#110)
    by cal1942 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:40:24 AM EST
    won Oklahoma.

    [ Parent ]
    He (5.00 / 3) (#20)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:34:37 AM EST
    can't do it. Now, with Rev. Wright and his ads going up more working class voters will be even more driven away from Obama. Sending Wright on a tour is nothing short of a disaster.

    Paul L. at corrente has done an analysis of demographics and Obama's support has declined across all groups except for AA's.

    As far as money goes, it hasn't really helped him that much. If you spend over 11 million dollars in PA on tv ads alone and can't close the deal then there's no amount of money that can buy you the demographics that you need.

    Obama peaked in WI imo.

    Latest poll had Obama losing VA so I really think that one is out of the equation for him in the general election.

    And now he has officially lost his media darling status what does he have left? He isn't selling his ideas for "change".

    Wisconsin (none / 0) (#26)
    by Stellaaa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:36:49 AM EST
    Why was it different?   He got the blue collar vote, why?

    [ Parent ]
    Wisconsin was Patty Doyle Solis' last loss (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by Cream City on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:16:00 AM EST
    as Clinton's campaign manager, dumped just days before.  And Maggie Williams was not in place in time.  Clinton hardly had a campaign here in Wisconsin -- no public events in Milwaukee or the entire metro area, the majority of Dem votes in the state.  (One event that was to be held had to be cancelled because of the record winter here -- record snow levels in Milwaukee, with almost a blizzard then.)  She had only a day or two in the state.

    And the Republican crossover is estimated as about 9% of the vote for Obama, with a concerted effort by conservative media/blogs here calling for that.  (This was well before the Limbaugh calls for crossover for Clinton, not until Ohio and Texas.)

    It always was going to be a tough state for her, too.  What was said about Iowa and Mississippi is as true in Wisconsin for women in politics, the last state to send a woman to Congress, and that was only in the last decade.  

    But now, after the primary with the Reverend Wright and Ayers and Dohrn (who is from the Milwaukee area) and in this gun-toting (even Feingold is on the NRA side!) and churchgoing state, Obama is slipping fast here.  I think Clinton could win it with campaigning here, but in the closest state last time -- Kerry won by less than a half of one percent -- I wouldn't count on either one to win it this fall.  

    McCain is winning Wisconsin now.

    [ Parent ]

    Um, cx, sorry: Patty Solis Doyle (nt) (none / 0) (#95)
    by Cream City on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:19:50 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Actually (none / 0) (#33)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:40:25 AM EST
    iirc he won 52%. Of course, like I said, it's all pretty much been downhill for him since then demographic wise.

    [ Parent ]
    Wisconsin (none / 0) (#79)
    by AnninCA on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:02:59 AM EST
    was always described as being a state of Independents.

    That was based on past presidential voting records.

    Lots of Chicago connnections in the north part of the State.

    Indiana also borders, but it's a different demography.  They do share the Chicago media markets, but that is where the similarities end.  Gary Indiana is heavily AA.  But there's also a lot of union workers there.

    [ Parent ]

    Chicago connections in northern Wisconsin? (none / 0) (#94)
    by Cream City on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:19:04 AM EST
    Huh?  No, northern Wisconsin is Populist -- more like Minnesota with its Farmer-Labor Party, and it's more the playground of Twin Cities types.

    Chicago's playgrounds are Lake Geneva and Door County, and both are quite a ways from Canada.  (As for southern counties closer to Chicago, several went for Clinton.)  I think you need a map. :-)

    [ Parent ]

    Actually (none / 0) (#169)
    by Steve M on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:01:33 PM EST
    Hillary didn't win any counties in the Chicago area.  Aside from counties on the northern border of the state, the only counties she won were Trempealeau, Adams, and Juneau, all well north of Madison.

    I still don't understand at all what happened in that election.  It remains an outlier.

    [ Parent ]

    Benefits..... (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Andre on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:36:08 AM EST
    "The choice is the same as it always was - the higher risk, higher potential benefit of Obama versus the more secure path with less potential benefit of Hillary Clinton."  ".....higher potential benefit..."?  Man, you and I do not see him the same way.  But of course, I go by prior accomplishments in assessing someone.  Just saying!

    Moving goal posts (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by koshembos on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:36:13 AM EST
    Obama already failed in all big states and all swing states. He lost Florida and Michigan is as best a wash. Indiana will not change that. No matter how well he'll do there, the reality is quite clear.

    Since Obama will be the nominee, unless extreme events intervene, the only way the Democrats can win includes:

    • Some form of unity ticket (not necessarily president and VP)
    • Serious and honest, on Obama's part, effort to heal the wounds he caused and his divisive, hateful and racist campaign. (I doubt he even contemplates that.)


    moving the goalpost (none / 0) (#134)
    by diogenes on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:22:34 AM EST
    Why are the key states all rustbelt ones with lots of blue collar whites?  Why not Colorado or Oregon?  In is far from clear that if Hillary wins Indiana 53-47 in the acrimonius May that Obama would lose the state when he runs alone against McCain in November.

    [ Parent ]
    Oregon has gone blue even with Dukakis.. (none / 0) (#151)
    by alexei on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:59:09 AM EST
    Yes, it is still considered a swing state but a reliably blue swing state.  CO is a purple state that Bill Clinton won in '92 when the economy was bad.  I believe that Hillary with her superior economic plans including health care, and the Clinton's success in the '90's on prosperity, will resonate there. She has shot to win CO, more so than Obama.

    Remember, this was a caucus state that Hillary did not contest on Super Tuesday, in IMOP, that does not accurately reflect what she could have accomplished.  Hispanics are a factor, which she does much better with and now with her stance on guns and Obama's stance, she is better situated.  And don't discount the religious angle - Obama is really leaking this vote as per Paul L's. analysis shows.

    Obama will probably not win CO and certainly he will not win VA.  Now, as I have stated in earlier  posts, I believe that Clinton has a better shot at VA (not meaning she will win , but has a better chance than Obama) due to Mark Warner's reverse coattails.  I think that Obama is radioactive for down ticket Dems and the NC GOP ad is much cruder than what will be out in the Fall.  Obama is toast in the GE, when MA is in play, a true blue Dem state at the Presidential level, than the Dem nominee is in deep trouble.

    [ Parent ]

    I Think That The Dems Will Go With Obama (5.00 / 4) (#27)
    by MO Blue on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:36:53 AM EST
    regardless of his chances in the GE. The messages have been pretty clear that they do not want to risk the ire of the AA community or lose the potential of the new voters that they think Obama is bringing into the party. I qualified the last part because I'm not convinced that Obama is bringing new voters into the Democratic party but rather the Obama party.

    At this point in time, I 'm not sure either candidate can win the GE. Obama can't win without women and working class white voters. He and his supporters have done themselves great harm within those demographics. Clinton cannot win without a strong showing from the AA community and now that she has been branded as a racist, i doubt that will occur. The electoral college maps over at MyDD are looking dismal. With both Obama and Clinton losing to McCain.

    I disagree (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:39:15 AM EST
    I think the nomination is not over and I think Clinton can win.

    [ Parent ]
    I Hope You Are Right And I Am Wrong (5.00 / 4) (#65)
    by MO Blue on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:52:30 AM EST
    I have thought for a long time that Obama would get the nomination and lose the GE while hoping I was wrong on both.

    I'm feeling really pessimistic right about now. Polls cited over at MyDD are showing Obama leading Clinton in Ind. The electoral maps are showing Obama losing to McCain 243 to 295 and Clinton losing 258 to 280. I am also extremely angry with the Dem establishment for deciding to have a power struggle within the party during a critical election year.


    [ Parent ]

    most polls in Indiana (none / 0) (#73)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:58:03 AM EST
    show within the margins.
    with Obamas consistent under performance based on what the polls say I think its looking pretty good for Clinton right now.
    things are spiraling downwards for team Obama.


    [ Parent ]
    an as far as Clinton being able to win (5.00 / 2) (#76)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:00:30 AM EST
    geez
    I just think you have to step back and look at what she has done.  how many times she has been written off.
    let me put it this way; if there is a person alive who can do this, its Hillary.
    I think she will clean McCains clock.  
    and I think the republicans know it too.


    [ Parent ]
    Right... (none / 0) (#127)
    by mbuchel on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:06:43 AM EST
    That's why Fox, Hannity, Limbaugh, Gingrich, Scaife, are all trying to keep her candidacy alive.  All because they are much more afraid of her than Obama in the general.

    [ Parent ]
    They are not keeping her candidacy alive. (none / 0) (#152)
    by alexei on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:04:38 PM EST
    The Democrats are voting for Hillary.  In PA, Obama had the advantage in Republican votes.  The other stuff is just playing the game.  

    Obama is the candidate the Repubs and McCain want to face.  With him at the top of the ticket, there are serious problems with Dem candidates especially those in swing and Republican districts and states.   Obama is the dream candidate for the Repubs and they are hoping and praying that he is the nominee.


    [ Parent ]

    Fox, Hannity, Limbaugh, Gingrich, Scaife (none / 0) (#166)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 01:17:26 PM EST
    are positively drooling to run against Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    I personally (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by AnninCA on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:41:38 AM EST
    don't think it's over for Clinton.  I believe, just my 2 cents, that his loss in the older demographic isn't based on race or any other reason than they just don't think he's ready.  They won't vote for someone so inexperienced.  McCain will get their vote.

    McCain is already working on that group.  He's trying to restrain NC Republicans from the hate ads.  Why?  Because he wants that middle Dem. vote.

    [ Parent ]

    Sure starting to look that way (5.00 / 4) (#47)
    by andgarden on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:45:52 AM EST
    Goodbye Supreme Court!

    [ Parent ]
    I agree that they will give him the nom (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by rooge04 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:47:28 AM EST
    regardless of his GE chances. I'm already hearing from my AA friends that they will not vote for Hillary. That she is a racist and is trying to ruin Obama for the GE and so she can run in 2012.  Sigh. It simply makes me sad. The Great Uniter.  

    [ Parent ]
    No question that lots now believe that (5.00 / 7) (#64)
    by andgarden on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:51:05 AM EST
    but those promulgating this idea need to understand that they're are destroying the Democratic party.

    [ Parent ]
    I know. (5.00 / 3) (#71)
    by rooge04 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:57:31 AM EST
    And there's no way of arguing it with my friends. They simply believe now that Bill and Hillary are scum, that they never cared about the AA community and that Hillary is setting up Obama to lose and take the spoils in 2012.

    [ Parent ]
    Dangerous media myth: don't fall for it (none / 0) (#96)
    by Davidson on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:20:35 AM EST
    Show me evidence that blacks will sit this out if Clinton is the nominee in a large enough block to hurt her chances?  Show me.  I'm tired of this myth.  I really am.  Look at SUSA polls.  She's in fighting shape against McCain, while he's hurting.

    And as I've said before: all that needs to be done is for Obama to campaign on her behalf.  That's it.  Obama runs a personality-based campaign and so his words are much more influential with his base.

    Obama is far too great a GE (think: landslide) to risk it on some media-based rumor.  Remember, when they told us that SC blacks hated the Clintons?  Well, it turns out that 80% of them would be satisfied if Clinton was the nominee.  That doesn't include those who would hold their nose to vote for her.

    Lastly, what do you think blacks will think if the Democrats run a candidate so weak he'll face a humiliating landslide loss?  How will that not hurt us terribly with blacks in the future?

    [ Parent ]

    You think many don't believe this? (none / 0) (#100)
    by andgarden on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:26:19 AM EST
    You should have watched the Philly TV news this Wednesday.

    [ Parent ]
    The problem is that they don't think he's weak. (none / 0) (#113)
    by rooge04 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:41:39 AM EST
    They think that if he loses, it's because Hillary succeeded in destroying him.  I don't think it's myth. I think it's widely held belief at this point.

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree (none / 0) (#86)
    by Serene1 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:13:57 AM EST
    while I think Obama's chances of winning GE is very slim, Hillary's chances of winning are however still v. high. Hillary is gaining momentum inspite of being outspent. Her base has only strengthened and her base will turn out in droves to vote for her. Against her McCain may struggle due to the lesser number of republicans coming out to vote for him.  

    [ Parent ]
    Gender: trump card (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by Davidson on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:27:25 AM EST
    Mark my words: if the Democrats are smart enough to nominate Clinton, Republican women will be her secret women.  I'm not kidding you.  My family is deeply rooted in the GOP, at the national and state level, and have expressed terror over that very possibility.*

    Oh, and Latinos.  They fear the Democrats will secure Latinos--a growing and powerful block--for a decade or longer if Clinton wins (e.g., comprehensive immigration reform, economic stability, universal health insurance, etc.).

    *Obama, however, is their favorite!  Oh, do they love him as an opponent.  Every one of them has donated the maximum amount to his campaign.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama and jay-z (none / 0) (#139)
    by waldenpond on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:28:53 AM EST
    I always thought a clip of Obama saying he listens to jay-z and then splicing it with jay-z would shift the wimmin' vote from an pretty large bracket of women from Obama to McCain.  The lyrics are pretty bad.

    [ Parent ]
    And he's got (5.00 / 1) (#147)
    by misspeach2008 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:52:20 AM EST
    99 problems and this b*tch is one of them.  8^)

    [ Parent ]
    the fact is that Clinton is NOT racist (none / 0) (#97)
    by TeresaInPa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:22:56 AM EST
    and Obama really is an elitist.  I think he will know better years from now, but for now he has blown it.  He has some growing up to do.

    Clinton can win back the African American community because they know she is not racist.  Right now it is just that she is denying their guy the win.

    [ Parent ]

    Please (none / 0) (#130)
    by mbuchel on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:15:36 AM EST
    All of the candidates currently running - Obama, Clinton, McCain - are elitists.  Hillary has spent the last 30 years living in a governor's mansion, the White House, Georgetown, and Chappicua (sp?).  McCain owns over 10+ properties worth millions of dollars.  Obama has made millions from the sale of her book.
    Or none of them are.  Obama grew up with a single mother, went to private school and college on scholarship or loans, and worked on the south side of Chicago instead of going the corporate law route.  Hillary has championed children's and women's causes  her whole life (35 years!).  McCain served his country in the military and spent over 5 years in the Hanoi Hilton.
    My point is you can cherry pick the parts of each of their bios to make them what you want.

    [ Parent ]
    Your point is moot. (none / 0) (#145)
    by rooge04 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:43:29 AM EST
    Elitism is not about how much money one has. It's about an attitude. FDR was no elitist. But he was filthy rich.   See also: Edwards, John.

    As for Obama's single mom?  She was a professional anthropologist and Obama was raised by a single mother for a total of THREE years.  At age 6, his mother married a wealthy executive.  Then he went on to gain foreign policy experience while living with them in Indonesia.

    [ Parent ]

    Are his 'new young' voters in for the long haul .. (none / 0) (#126)
    by Ellie on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:02:42 AM EST
    ... or simply joined a mini-movement to take out Sen Clinton? Will they be working, registering others and donating in the GE?

    The drive for PA registered newbies (that Team Obama claimed as their own) wasn't all that impressive. (~100K?) I don't classify someone who's bought a button or a mug as a 'donor' (or definite voter in the GE.)

    [ Parent ]

    Not All Of The New Voters Were For Obama (5.00 / 1) (#133)
    by MO Blue on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:21:19 AM EST
    either. Many first timers registered to vote for Hillary.

    [ Parent ]
    What is racist? (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by Saul on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:44:55 AM EST
    The racist word has come up but usually against Hilary and Bill. The connotation of that word has carried more negative weight than being gender bias.  So what percent of AA voters are voting for Obama just because he is AA and has nothing to do with his platform or beliefs?  Why wouldn't that be considered racist?

    Yes (none / 0) (#75)
    by AnninCA on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:59:41 AM EST
    but I don't think racism has anything to do with why he lost PA.

    It's the style.

    These are people who want to know what the plan is and how we're going to get there.

    They are not interested in academic descriptions of them as clinging to guns and religion.  :)

    [ Parent ]

    Yesterday, Halstoon insisted (none / 0) (#131)
    by hairspray on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:15:41 AM EST
    that Clinton's margin of victory was directly related to an exit poll finding that 15% of her white voters answered yes to the question "Did race play a role in your vote?"  Ergo, she wins by appealing to racists.  Got that?  I don't know if they asked the same of AA voters.  Or asked the AA voters if gender played a role for them either.  But you know only Hillary is racist.

    [ Parent ]
    because reverse racism has no teeth (none / 0) (#104)
    by TeresaInPa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:28:08 AM EST
    when applied by voters.  On the other hand racism on Obama's part, or sexism does indeed have teeth as he is applying for head of the institutions that make racism dangerous and punitive.

    I do not believe we have had a racist president in either party since Nixon.  I also think Obama really does have a problem with blue collar white people and rural voters.  He wouldn't be the first black man I know with that problem and for good reason.  However, he MUST transcend race despite those very good reasons and he fails to do that.

    Like I have said many times, he has not transcended race he has exploited it.

    [ Parent ]

    Shrug (none / 0) (#170)
    by Steve M on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 02:08:12 PM EST
    Politics is tribalism, always has been.  No one thought it was outrageous when all the Irish Catholics voted for JFK, I'm quite certain.  In fact, it would be shocking if it happened any other way.

    Now, whites voting for the white candidate just because of race is dodgy for the same reason that people who talk about "white pride" creep us out.  But when you break it down into actual ethnic subgroups, of course the Greeks voted for Dukakis.  It would be silly to expect the majority of people to be above this.

    [ Parent ]

    It's simple (5.00 / 3) (#46)
    by Stellaaa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:45:44 AM EST
    I agree with all of you and my head is spinning, but Krugman made me feel so good last night for having the courage to defend the core values of the Democratic values and point out the shallowness of the Obama campaign.  

    Krugman--this was sweet: (5.00 / 3) (#56)
    by Kathy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:49:18 AM EST
    Tellingly, the Obama campaign has put far more energy into attacking Mrs. Clinton's health care proposals than it has into promoting the idea of universal coverage.


    [ Parent ]
    Krugman (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by AnninCA on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:54:21 AM EST
    also pointed out that Obama's ads were non-stop attack.

    Hers were not.

    I suppose she earned her smack-down from the Times because of "I'm Not Bitter" t-shirts.  :)

    (I still want mine!)

    [ Parent ]

    I'm wearing a 'Problematic White Woman' t-shirt (none / 0) (#109)
    by Ellie on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:37:01 AM EST
    If I'm the worst problem on someone's obstacle list, I'd suggest a different path to glory.

    [ Parent ]
    I find it troubling (5.00 / 2) (#69)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:55:22 AM EST
    that so many here are willing to roll over and give it to Obama this morning just as the MSM seems to finally be getting on our side.
    man up! chin up! smile!
    its not over.


    Not Exactly Rolling Over On This (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by MO Blue on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:16:00 AM EST
    I still willing to donate etc. for Clinton but I think that all indications are that the Dems establishment are going to roll the dice with Obama come h@ll or high water and the party will pay the consequences. I also think that Clinton has been seriously damaged by being branded a racist. In fact, the entire party has been damaged by being branded as a party of racist and elitist.

    [ Parent ]
    So much for transcending (5.00 / 4) (#112)
    by Stellaaa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:41:02 AM EST
    this is what is irksome.  He was going to get us to this higher level, to be post racial and his whole campaign is based on race.  For nothing else, hypocrisy alone should be the give away.  

    But I tell you the white liberal guilt of the intelligentsia and upper income classes is beyond imagination.  Where I live we have a public schools system that at the time my kids went there, was 65% minority, mostly black.  Well, the same people who are now transcended would not let their kids go to the schools because their kids were special.  These people are now telling me I am racist for supporting HIllary?  When my daughter was in classes where she was the only white kid and the principle would beg me to leave her in cause she could not have an all black class?    

    Only they got offended when Bill compared Obama to Jackson, I thought it was a compliment, but these same "liberals" are scared of Jackson and what he stood for, cause they rhetoric does not match the signs on their windows and bumper stickers.  
    I used to love the euphemism:  Disruptive children.  Guess who they were talking about?  I used to nail them on that one each and every time.  

    [ Parent ]

    I Remember When Many Of These Same LIBERALS (none / 0) (#140)
    by MO Blue on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:31:28 AM EST
    who were supporting Obama in the beginning were making all kind of derogatory remarks about Jackson and Sharpton when there was some doubt that they would support Obama.

    I also remember when some of them said that Jackson and Sharpton should not have been behind Lamont on the stage when he won the primary.

    In both instances, I posted how wrong they were. Now these same AHs have the nerve to brand me as a racist.

    [ Parent ]

    Who's we? (none / 0) (#74)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 09:58:50 AM EST
    I think Obama is more electable and thus I hope he is the nominee.

    [ Parent ]
    not you (none / 0) (#77)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:02:38 AM EST
    that has been your position for a long time.
    but I see others suddenly seeming to lose hope.
    and as I said, just as the press seems to be starting to get it.
    dont do it.  hang on.  thats all Im sayin.

    [ Parent ]
    I know what you're saying (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by rooge04 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:10:46 AM EST
    I was so happy after PA and now today comes and I do feel rather hopeless.  I feel awful that the AA leaders are threatening to turn if Hillary wins the nom (not to mention if she doesn't and Obama loses the GE).  It's just SAD. And that seems to be the new meme today. I think Obama will definitely be getting the nom regardless of how many votes Hillary gets.

    [ Parent ]
    AA leaders are threatening to turn (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:18:40 AM EST
    I dont take this seriously.
    turn to what?
    some may stay home.  very few are going to vote for a republican.
    but the fact is the Clintons have deep roots in the AA community and they ALL will not stay home.
    another fact is that the states with the largest electorally most important populations are in the south which we will not win anyway.

    [ Parent ]
    Too narrow a perspective. (none / 0) (#102)
    by sweetthings on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:26:49 AM EST
    AAs staying home might not damage our WH chances too much...as you say, they are largely concentrated in states that will go red anyway.

    But those states, while red, still elect Democratic governors, representatives, and senators. And they do it with the help of the AAs. If they stay home, those races become a lot tougher.

    And that's exactly the kind of thing Supers fret about.

    [ Parent ]

    the supers may fret (5.00 / 1) (#105)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:30:41 AM EST
    about governers but that is not why they were created.
    they were created to win presidential elections.
    I agree that Obama would probably mean a better year for down ticket democrats. but he will not win IMO and that is more important.
    one president is worth 20 governors.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't agree. (5.00 / 1) (#159)
    by alexei on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 12:23:37 PM EST
    Most gains for the Democrats in red states were not in the South, they were in the West and Mid West, where, I believe that Obama is radioactive for down ticket Dems.  His Clinggate on guns, religion etal, Wright, Ayers and yes, Rezko/Auchi (more will come out on this), and the patriotism questions are devastating.  Obama has not been able to put to bed even the flag pin issue, in fact, as many commentators have attested, he has made them worse with each of his successive "explanations".

    With the economy only getting worse, Clinton has a real chance to have deep coattails.  It is a tremendous testament to her that she has been able to have these big wins with all the media against her, much less money and changes in her campaign structure.  She has remade herself into the working and middle class hero.  I saw the panel on Hardball - all were amazed at her  great political skills; Norma Rae, in awe, etc.

    This woman is amazing and against all odds, she is the leader of the popular vote.  I have not seen a better politician, and that includes Bill, who before this I thought was the best in my lifetime (and that includes Kennedy).

    [ Parent ]

    Not If Rev. Wright Ads Against Dem Pols (none / 0) (#142)
    by MO Blue on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 11:34:39 AM EST
    who endorsed Obama work. If they do, Obama's coattails will be a net negative.

    [ Parent ]
    let women stay home or vote McCain (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by TeresaInPa on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:34:22 AM EST
    and it is even worse.

    [ Parent ]
    exactly (none / 0) (#119)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:49:55 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    On Obama expanding the Electoral Map... (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by fkperiera on Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 10:06:26 AM EST
    Of course, Obama is also an electoral map expander - see Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, etc.

    I think this is the flaw in your argument.  Prior to the Texas and Ohio elections I might have agreed that Obama's positive message of unity resonated with a lot of non-Democratic voters.  But now, especially after Pennsylvania and his comments about working class voters, it is quite obvious to most people that he is, as Wright puts it, "a politician."  Which is to say, that he has always been saying what he needs to say to get elected.  

    Which is why he will probably continue to lose big states.  Before he was the Fresh Face of New Politics, now he's a Junior Senator play