Great News For Clinton: Zogby Says PA Tied

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

On the theory, I guess, that one of his darts might possibly hit a target, the charlatan pundit who claims to be a pollster, John Zogby, tells us Pennsylvania is a tie (Let me add that if Zogby were actually a pollster, this finding would not be particularly newsworthy in that the movement from his previous poll (Clinton down 2, Obama up 1) is well within the MOE. It is not a surprising finding. But I know that Zogby is a charlatan and he just makes the numbers up by manipulating his turnout model.)

The race might indeed be a tie but I am sure John Zogby has no idea if it is or if it is not. He is a charlatan. But I do thank him for giving me another chance to call him one. After his disappearance after his humiliating exposure this campaign season, I thought I might not get such a chance again.

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    Interesting that SUSA (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by madamab on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:15:03 AM EST
    is not including in JMM's summary.

    Dumb advocacy, then (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by andgarden on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:19:00 AM EST
    if he supports Obama, he should be playing up Hillary's chances.

    We won't any longer pretend that he's a journalist, of course.


    Absolutely (none / 0) (#12)
    by Faust on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:37:31 AM EST
    He's done Obama a diservice many times this campaign. His polls for California (and Ohio for that matter) created a real expectations problem for Obama. I'm not even sure what his agenda is. He seems like he's really lowered his brand this season.

    Well I was talking about JMM (none / 0) (#13)
    by andgarden on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:38:30 AM EST
    but Zogby too.

    My bad (none / 0) (#23)
    by Faust on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:59:05 AM EST
    didn't properly read the parent.

    Zogby is XM's 'redisent pollster' (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by ruffian on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:31:43 AM EST
    fot their POTUS '08 channel, so I heard about this on my way to work.  There is a 4% margin of error, and around 12% undecided, if I remember correctly. andgarden is right, you may as well throw a dart.

    I am going to write to XM, for what it's worth.  I'm sure they have some kind of a contract with Zogby, so it probably won't do any good.

    Good luck - I have written XM repeatedly (none / 0) (#15)
    by Anne on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:58:02 AM EST
    and criticized POTUS 08's reliance on Zogby - over and over I hear him or his cohorts being interviewed about their polling and it seems like some really important information is always left out, and the analysis can often be contorted in a painfully obvious way.

    Zogby has his own show on XM - Zogby's Real America - which may explain the connection, but I find it aggravating that for all the balance POTUS 08 purports to bring to the conversation, they do not apply that same effort to polling.


    Don't Worry...Be Happy (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Missblu on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:55:38 AM EST

    Zogby final poll for Ohio 3/2.


    02/29 - 03/02    761 LV    45    47    Obama +2

    Hey he probably has one more release (none / 0) (#19)
    by Marvin42 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:19:30 AM EST
    To take his polls more in line with other before the actual vote for PA! ;)

    Please, please tell me that Keith O. (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by IndiDemGirl on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:42:39 AM EST
    won't cover this poll on his show tonight.  As a woman who will be voting for Obama in the Indiana primary, even I can't watch the first 15 minutes of Keith anymore because it is so biased against Hillary. (She would be a great candidate -- she just isn't my first choice.)   I don't want to see fake polls showing a fake lead.  I just don't understand why any Obama supporter would get excited about this poll -- it's a joke in my opinion.

    Polls (none / 0) (#1)
    by judyo on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:04:37 AM EST
    Josh Marshall proving once again (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:09:35 AM EST
    his journalistic incompetence. The last 4 polls released mean nothing if you do not read poll over poll.

    Inded, Zogby's actual fining is meaningless in the sense that it is with the MOE of his last poll. But that shows you Zogby is a charlatan who just makes numbers up.


    yup (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by andgarden on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:13:14 AM EST
    dart board man.

    I checkout out JMM's (5.00 / 3) (#9)
    by ruffian on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:28:22 AM EST
    live blog after the debate was over last night to see what he said about Obama's Social Security comments.  I had a naive hope that JMM had retained enough journalistic integrity to at least disagree with Obama's erroneuous framing of his old pet topic.

    I was so wrong.  Not one word about SS, as if that part of the debate had never happened. Unbelievable.


    Polls (2) (none / 0) (#26)
    by judyo on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 02:02:28 PM EST
    Well, the writer's strike (none / 0) (#2)
    by Stellaaa on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:08:09 AM EST
    proved one thing, the alleged news blogs are straight on satiric comedy.  

    Zogby popped (none / 0) (#4)
    by Lahdee on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:09:48 AM EST
    onto my radar in 04 with his on-line surveys. The criticism then, and rightly so, was he had a limited demographic for those on-line polls. Ever since then I've watched in amazement as he has gotten his phone-in stuff wrong, wrong, wrong more often than not. I do, however, find it reassuring that whenever he posts a poll I can know it's not realistic.

    Thank You (none / 0) (#5)
    by lisadawn82 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:12:40 AM EST
    Thanks for the chuckle this morning BTD.  The truth produces the biggest laughs most of the time.

    I started in 2004 with his on line surveys too (none / 0) (#11)
    by BarnBabe on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:36:16 AM EST
    And I have not received one political questionaire this political season. Products, yes. New Jersey advertising, which took forever, yes. But he has not asked me who I was going to vote for. So seems like he is doing a lot more private polling to make money. Maybe political is just a side line to get his  name out in the news media and public to get more private business. Makes him legitimate? Ha. And he has not called me either.

    Why does Zogby get play (none / 0) (#16)
    by americanincanada on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 10:59:06 AM EST
    in the MSM and SUSA not?

    Can someone please explain?

    He talks to them. . . (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by andgarden on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:00:48 AM EST
    And (none / 0) (#18)
    by nell on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:09:39 AM EST
    I believe SUSA polls are typically funded by local media outlets, so they get more play at the local level than at the national level. I am happy with it being our little secret pollster though. Better for Zogby to raise expectations for Obama because if Clinton wins big, it looks even bigger and the stunned reaction of the media every time she wins is the ONLY thing that can get me to tune into cable news. Heh.

    On that I agree... (none / 0) (#20)
    by americanincanada on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:23:58 AM EST
    it was worth tuning in to CNN and MSNBC last night just to watch Anderson Cooper and KO spin until they exploded.

    8 polls this week(so far)... (none / 0) (#22)
    by mike in dc on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 11:56:29 AM EST
    ...and only one has Clinton up by double digits.  Obama's going on a whistle-stop train tour of PA from Friday through primary day.  I don't know whether that means they think they've got a shot at winning, or whether they just want to keep the margin as tight as possible.

    How many polls will come out over the last 6 days, I wonder?

    This (none / 0) (#24)
    by nell on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:00:57 PM EST
    is always the case. Remember CA, remember NJ? Hell, remember OH and TX? They always say look how it has tightened, Clinton won't win, blah, blah, blah. If he wins, good for him. HE SHOULD given how much he has been outspending her and his incredibly favorable treatment in the media overall (even after ABC was hard on him last night, the media spins, spins, spins away about how wonderful he is). If he doesn't win, he has a problem. Same goes for her.

    Well, the polls... (none / 0) (#25)
    by mike in dc on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 12:11:02 PM EST
    ...set the probable range of results.  At this point, that range is from Obama +2 to Clinton +14, averaging Clinton +6.  In terms of the expectations game/delegate gains, any result better than his Ohio finish is a net plus for Obama, the closer the better, because it shows him making inroads with blue collar voters and eroding Clinton's base.  Any result better than her Ohio finish is a net plus for Clinton, the bigger the better, because it feeds her argument that Obama is faltering and can't win in November.  To change the trajectory of the race significantly, I think Obama would either have to finish with a margin smaller than the polling average(i.e., 5 points or less), or Clinton would have to have one larger than the most favorable poll (at this point, that means winning by 15 points or better).  Otherwise, we will go on to NC and IN and things there will pretty much follow expectations(Obama by double digits in NC and a close race in IN).  After that, there's only a couple hundred pledged delegates still up for grabs, and probably not much reason for SDs to stay on the fence.  There will probably be less than 250, maybe less than 200 remaining SDs, so it will be pretty obvious whether Clinton's strategy remains viable or not.  The instant one of these two candidates has 2024(pledged plus official SD endorsements), the other should quit, period, full stop.  A bitter fight all the way to the convention is a recipe for down-ticket disaster in November.

    Sometimes (none / 0) (#27)
    by Left of center on Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 02:31:54 PM EST
    I wonder if John Zogby gets his predictions from Nostradamus' quatrains.