Mississippi Will Be A Pyrrhic Victory For Obama
By Big Tent Democrat
According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Barack Obama has a 14 point lead in Mississippi, 53-39. But because of the demographic disparity, Obama leads by enormous margins among African-Americans and trails by enormous margins among white voters, Obama is likely to suffer, at best, a repeat of what happened in Alabama, a virtual tie in the delegate count.
Because Alabama voted on Super Tuesday, the strange and troubling Alabama result flew under the radar. On Tuesday, Mississippi votes alone and its results will receive full coverage. A review of the Alabama result is instructive. Obama won the state by a very comfortable 56-42 margin in the popular vote. But he barely won the delegate count, 27-25, and in fact only tied Clinton in the congressional district delegate count.
How could that happen? Well, since, like Mississippi, Alabama has a majority-minority district, most of Obama's African American support was to be found in that congressional district. He also won the AL-3 district by a thin margin, because that district included two strong counties for Obama, Macon, heavily African-American and near Montgomery, and Lee, where Auburn University is located. Obama won the delegate count in CD-7 and CD-3, 5-2 and 3-2. But he lost most other congressional districts in Alabama and won no others. I expect he will lose all but Bennie Thompson's 7 delegate congressional district in Mississippi. And that is a bad result for Obama, because the other 3 Mississippi Congressional districts are 5 delegate districts, insuring AT LEAST a 3-2 split for Clinton.
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