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Half-Time Predictions on Texas and Ohio

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:28:39 PM EST
Tags: Texas '08, Ohio '08 (all tags)
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We're not quite at half-time, but who do you think will win Ohio and Texas now?

And what about the lawsuits? Barack Obama sued to reopen some polls in Cleveland, and Hillary reportedly held a media call about suing over voter intimidation in Texas.

< Huckabee Drops Out, McCain Will Be Nominee | NBC, If You Don't Want To Cover The Dem Race, Please Stop Covering It >

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    Half-Time Predictions on Texas and Ohio | 64 comments (64 topical)

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    Prediction: Obama lawsuit will be ignored (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by catfish on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:33:34 PM EST
    by MSNBC.

    Done (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by Grey on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:35:33 PM EST
    It's been ignored all night in favor of saying that Clinton is whining in reference to the media call.

    Nice job, eh?


    Parent

    snicker snicker (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:36:33 PM EST
    I agree. But you just made milk come through my nose. :-)

    You forgot, they'll continue to say Hillary's complaint in Texas is whining.

    Parent

    I think if the campaign (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:38:17 PM EST
    gets some people in front of the cameras talking about voter intimidation, then the story will have legs--and good ones for Clinton.  NBC will come around when the other networks do it.  Remember, they all got fat from feeding from the same trough.


    Parent
    Hillary Closing in TX ... (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:48:42 PM EST
    now a 5% spread.

    Numbers are tightening (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:51:19 PM EST
    in Texas.  Hillary just made a 20K leap in the spread.  Only down by 40K now.

    Parent
    Closing fast (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:55:22 PM EST
    This ain't over folks.

    Parent
    now it's (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:51:22 PM EST
    she's only trailing by 3%.

    Parent
    We are in the process (5.00 / 1) (#47)
    by fladem on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:54:14 PM EST
    of destroying any chance in November.

    Supporters of each candidate should not kid ourselves: we are forming a circular firing squad.

    No doubt about it (none / 0) (#51)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:03:00 PM EST
    People seem to think that a no holds barred approach is the way to go, ignoring the fact that the ULTIMATE objective is winning in November.

    Parent
    so, let me get this straight (none / 0) (#56)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:14:27 PM EST
    you are calling for Obama to concede for the unity of the party?

    Parent
    No Kathy (none / 0) (#59)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:17:21 PM EST
    I'm calling for people such as yourself to stop applauding the scorched earth policies that seem to be more and more the norm.

    I know. I know.  Hillary doesn't do negative.

    Parent

    you are right- (none / 0) (#61)
    by kenosharick on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:49:09 PM EST
    Barack should drop out to "save the party"

    Parent
    More unfairness (1.00 / 1) (#48)
    by Foxx on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:54:36 PM EST
    So Obama gets another hour and a half to get his voters to the polls, because of false claims of running out of ballots. Hillary's voters can't get to the polls because of the weather. She should sue to have them vote tomorrow!

    Then Obama is locking people out in Texas. What a travesty.

    Yeah! (none / 0) (#50)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:58:14 PM EST
    I heard that the Obama voters were the only ones with umbrellas!

    So unfair.

    Parent

    Hope you have fun someday (none / 0) (#55)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:12:09 PM EST
    in a flood, with that umbrella as protection under your feet. Really, Flyer, think first.

    Parent
    Yeah (none / 0) (#57)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:15:00 PM EST
    I guess only Hillary supporters are affected by flooding?   Don't let that point hit you in the head as it whizzes by.

    Parent
    you've got a point (none / 0) (#60)
    by RalphB on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:32:36 PM EST
    and should cover it with a nice hat.

    I've got no problem with keeping the polls open, but they really should hold then all open.  Let everyone cast their ballot.


    Parent

    I (none / 0) (#63)
    by tek on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:11:08 AM EST
    heard this morning that some polling places in Cleveland are going to be open today.  Don't know how that's going to work.

    Parent
    lawsuits are annoying (none / 0) (#1)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:30:33 PM EST
    They've called Rhode Island for Hillary.  Not terribly surprising.

    apparently in Texas they are reporting (none / 0) (#2)
    by athyrio on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:30:48 PM EST
    in the caucus that some Obama supporters are locking out Hillary supporters....Disgraceful!!

    And they say Hillary.... (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:33:11 PM EST
    ...wants to win at any cost.

    Parent
    But...Hillary is the dirty campaigner. (none / 0) (#9)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:33:09 PM EST
    Fineman said so!

    Parent
    Obama camp also ambushing Hillary's camp (none / 0) (#19)
    by ding7777 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:36:50 PM EST
    conference call to reporters.

    for more info go here

    Parent

    Both Campaigns look bad. (none / 0) (#22)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:38:03 PM EST
    There have been reports of Hillary supporters doing the same (Lockouts in NV, the sing up stuff in TX-- see Armbinder, the Obama camp has released a comprehensive list of such incidents, down to the precinct #).

    Parent
    The local news coverage here in Houston (none / 0) (#27)
    by texas hostage on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:38:49 PM EST
    was all pro BO. Around noon today the ABC affiliate had a story where the Harris County Elections Clerk was complaining bc the Clinton campaign was calling voters asking them to arrive at the caucus sites thirty minutes early. The pin head clerk told people that they shouldnt arrive early because people would still be voting. that they should come at 7pm and they would have plenty of time to caucus. I had to work this evening and couldnt go to caucus, but my friend just called me to say it is a total clusterf**k. Whoever thought up having people caucus on the same night that and the same place that they voted for in the primary needs to be stripped forever of their voting privileges.

    Parent
    How Can This Be?? (none / 0) (#52)
    by AmyinSC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:03:01 PM EST
    Can they not call the police or something?  It IS supposed to be open to Dems who voted, right?  So, how are they getting away with this?  Or am I being naive?

    And, if Obama is so freakin' great, why are they trying to steal this election?  I tell ya - the comparisons to Dubya just keep growing, and growing, and growing...

    Parent

    The Obama camp (none / 0) (#64)
    by tek on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:12:02 AM EST
    has been doing this stuff all along.  That's how he wins caucuses.  The Chicago Smackdown.  What sleazy crap.

    Parent
    It is pretty intimidating for Clinton supporters (none / 0) (#3)
    by magster on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:31:16 PM EST
    when you're outnumbered 2:1 at the caucuses.

    <snark and trash talk>

    O/T Will CNN Give Ron Paul as much time as they (none / 0) (#4)
    by TomLincoln on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:31:36 PM EST
    are giving Huck?

    Isn't time from Gravel to concede (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:35:41 PM EST
    didn't he have to win by triple digits tonight?

    Parent
    He won't concede until Ben Masel (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:37:23 PM EST
    o.k.s it.  Oh, wait, Ben already changed his sig. line.

    Parent
    Prediction (none / 0) (#5)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:31:39 PM EST
    OK, based on only gut and truthiness, I'm going with Hillary by 5 in Ohio, and Barack by 3 in Texas. I'm crossing fingers for a popular vote win for Hillary, but my gut says no.

    I predict I'm going to be up really late (none / 0) (#6)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:31:42 PM EST
    tonight. Later than Super Tuesday. This is exciting.

    I wish I could trust the Texas exit polls and I wish they didn't have a caucus after the primary. I think Obama will win the most delegates there but HC may win a small popular vote victory.

    Are you still (none / 0) (#7)
    by lilburro on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:31:55 PM EST
    liveblogging?  

    Barack wins lawsuit (none / 0) (#8)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:31:59 PM EST
    According to CNN (about 30 mins ago) Barack won suit to keep Cuyahoga (Cleveland) polling places open until 9pmEST.

    I'm really glad (none / 0) (#62)
    by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:05:52 PM EST
    that rules exist to be bent for Obama.

    Bent for Obama. That has a nice ring to it.

    Parent

    weird that they're not calling OH for Clinton yet. (none / 0) (#12)
    by mike in dc on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:34:58 PM EST
    10 percent of vote, she leads by 20. I'm sure that will narrow quite a bit, because of Cuyahoga and elsewhere, but it seems like a safe bet she'll win, right?

    I think Obama will take Texas by a few points, due to his decent margin in early voters.

    Delegates will either be a wash or a net gain for Obama.

    I am (none / 0) (#20)
    by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:37:07 PM EST
    not seeing Obama with a huge lead in early voting. I am seeing they were about even.

    http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/mar04_136_state.htm?x=0&y=112&id=548

    I predict Hillary will win by 8-10% in Ohio and by 4% in Texas.

    Parent

    Last I looked no ... (none / 0) (#29)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:40:40 PM EST
    results from Cleveland yet ... which may explain why they aren't calling it.

    Parent
    And Columbus is the largest city (none / 0) (#54)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:06:05 PM EST
    so they really need to see more results from there. Of course, it and almost all the urban areas are going for Obama, but they need to see by how much.

    Parent
    If Hillary wins Texas and Ohio, will John (none / 0) (#13)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:34:59 PM EST
    Edwards follow his instinct (my opinion only) and endorse HC for her healthcare policies?

    any more news (none / 0) (#16)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:36:01 PM EST
    on voter intimidation?  That's very troubling to me.  This is not the way to win elections.

    Kathy... (none / 0) (#23)
    by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:38:07 PM EST
    just read this from a conference call with Clinton campaign on Taylormarsh.

    Just finished part of a call from the Clinton campaign; while waiting for the second round of C-SPAN interviews. The Clinton campaign said sign in sheets were indeed being filled out during the day by Obama team and supporters, according to Clinton's counsel. The Texas Dem party hotlines are jammed with people calling in. Clinton camp has heard of complaints all day. "All over the state" complaints. "Obama campaign took the precinct captain's packet," and they don't know what was done with it. Clinton camp has precinct numbers. "Numerous locations" where Obama supporters have "locked out" Clinton supporters. "We have lawyers all over the state." ... Wolfson: This is the first time we've held a call of this nature. Chaotic is normal. What's happening in Texas tonight "is not typical." "Is quite extraordinary."

    Parent

    if this is true (none / 0) (#28)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:40:20 PM EST
    (and I say "if" because we're still in the heat of the moment) then I hope they get people mad enough to go in front of the cameras.  From early reports, all the news stations were trolling for these kinds of stories and just looking for the right person to train the lens on.

    Parent
    From what (none / 0) (#31)
    by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:41:56 PM EST
    I am reading we will be seeing people on camera, I bet.

    Parent
    Kathy... (none / 0) (#34)
    by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:44:28 PM EST
    did you see the letter that got sent out earlier today because of the caucus sign in sheet crap the Obama camp was pulling?

    Parent
    Both sides (none / 0) (#39)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:48:02 PM EST
    Did you read where the Obama camp released a list of precincts that Hillary supporters used similar tactics in?

    Parent
    yep (none / 0) (#41)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:49:20 PM EST
    I hope that it gets investigated.  I still think this is just mass stupidity.  If this is widespread (please note the "if" for reasons I have stated) and the Obama camp denies any top-down conspiracy, then I think the question that needs to be asked is: why can't he control his own volunteers?

    These rumors of strong-arming really disturb me.  Think of how many groups have fought tooth and nail to get the vote, and now to be intimidated by "members" of our own party?

    Bleh.

    Parent

    AFter all (none / 0) (#65)
    by tek on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:15:42 AM EST
    the disenfranchisement of AAs, it's too ironic that the first AA prez candidate is depriving people in his own party of the franchise.  I really don't like Obama's tactics.

    Parent
    wow, change indeed (none / 0) (#30)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:41:45 PM EST
    Wow, this is indeed distressing. Good thing Obama is for a new kind of politics.

    Parent
    CNN says Clinton is currently (none / 0) (#33)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:44:12 PM EST
    winning OH 58%-40%; RI 52-47.

    Parent
    Ohio (none / 0) (#17)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:36:20 PM EST
    Looks very strong in Ohio.   I do think that Cleveland results will come in late and close the gap it is hard to see Obama overcome the lead.  So I expect a late Missouri like push but Hillary will wind up with 5%.

    Texas seems to have flatten out a bit as far as the spread.  Over a million votes in now.  75,000 vote lead for Obama.  

    I meant to say (none / 0) (#26)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:38:39 PM EST
    Hillary looks very strong in Ohio.

    Parent
    Ok (none / 0) (#25)
    by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:38:19 PM EST
    I'm going to say Hillary by four in TX and six-to-eight in Ohio. I think exit polls in the big, diverse states tend to miss some of her rural voters or something.

    HOLY MOLY (none / 0) (#32)
    by SarahinCA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:43:16 PM EST
    Bauer ambushes Clinton conference call

    explanations from the conference call (none / 0) (#36)
    by SarahinCA on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:44:59 PM EST
    ambinder

    Parent
    Interesting (none / 0) (#42)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:49:22 PM EST
    Armbinders also the source where I got the Clinton supporters using illegal list information from.

    Parent
    TX Caucus results (none / 0) (#35)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:44:57 PM EST
    OK, I'm refining my Texas prediction above. I'm going with Hillary wins the popular primary vote, but Barack gets nearly 90% of the caucus votes because of what we've been hearing. Who knows what this will mean in the final numbers.

    The important thing here is that I think if Hillary wins the popular regular primary vote in Texas (minus the Caucuses), then that's a win in my book for her to continue. Subtle distinction to be sure.

    I think if Obama (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:47:21 PM EST
    wins the caucuses by an unbelievably wide margin but loses the primary vote, that will only help Clinton's claims of voter intimidation.

    Parent
    regular vote vs. caucus (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:51:48 PM EST
    I agree. In fact, I'd say this vote in Texas with any sizable difference between the regular vote and the caucus votes will not only hint at some questionable practices by the Obama team, but it may also be the perfect evidence of why there should be no caucuses. This could have a major silver lining.

    Parent
    This is was only one precinct (none / 0) (#53)
    by sumac on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:05:27 PM EST
    ...where I caucuses but there was no voter intimidation. Actually everyone was pretty polite (if slightly confused). The split was closer than I would have thought - maybe 55% - 45% for Obama?

    Parent
    Very good to hear (none / 0) (#58)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 09:16:04 PM EST
    at least in that one precinct. I hope most are that way. Well, I may not like the results, but I'm happy if things are fair.

    Parent
    I'm still sticking to my predictions from earlier (none / 0) (#37)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 08:46:03 PM EST
    Hillary wins both.  10% or more in OH, 4-6% in TX.

    Half-Time Predictions on Texas and Ohio | 64 comments (64 topical)

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