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Endorsing Richardson's Statement On Ending The Dem Contest

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Like my previous endorsement of Tweety's Matthews FL/MI proposal (Obama and Clinton agree to revote them and bot agree that the winner of the total popular vote is the nominee), this endorsement of Bill Richardson's statement on ending the Dem contest is founded on the need for our nominee to be the choice of the people:

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, fresh off his endorsement of Barack Obama this week, suggested Sunday that Hillary Rodham Clinton should consider dropping out of the race if she trails in the delegate count and popular vote at the end of the primary process.

(Emphasis supplied.) If Hillary Clinton trails in the delegate count AND the popular vote at the END OF THE PRIMARY PROCESS, the people will have spoken. The problem here is Michigan and Florida of course. How to count their votes. Barack Obama has made his path to legitimacy as the nominee very difficult by blocking Florida and Michigan revotes. If Obama does not hold a 500,000 vote lead in the popular vote (excluding Florida and Michigan) at the end of the process, his claim to a popular vote win will be severely tainted.

More . . .

Unfortunately, Richardson's respect for the popular vote is not seen in all Obama supporters. Consider Josh Marshall's blithe unconcern for the votes of the people, a new position BTW for TPM. Josh's feigned bafflement at the difficult task of counting the votes is thoroughly amusing, indeed, to coin a phrase, almost parody:

I don't know where it was. It think it may have been a reader blog at TPMCafe. Wherever it was it was a post that ran down something like ten different ways of counting the popular vote, all to the end of showing that Barack's popular vote lead wasn't nearly so great and may not exist at all. There was the count with and without Michigan and Florida, with one but not the other, including caucuses and not including caucuses. There were other options that seemed to go even further down the rabbit hole.

The rabbit hole? Having done these exercises, let me assure you that they are quite straightforward and simple. They entail getting a vote count from all the states. The controversy surrounds Florida and Michigan. OF course Josh WANTS this all to be some arcane nonsense, but he must know better. There seems to be a purpose to his feigned bafflement:

But it did lead me to have a kind of epiphany about just where the Clinton side is at this point -- gaming out different retroactive rule changes to see who would have won the popular vote if the nomination process were operating under a different set of rules.

Here is Josh again making stuff up. The question is not who will win the popular vote under a different set of rules. That would be the Obama campaign's exercise (projecting out caucus votes to primary sized turnouts) and I bet you right now Josh Marshall will be one of those playing that game in a month or so. Mark my words.

After some more incomprehensible blather from Josh, he lets loose with this jabberwocky gem:

But fundamentally, who cares? The system is based on pledged delegates and super-delegates. Period. There's a set of rules everyone agreed on. The wisdom of those rules is irrelevant at this point. The Clinton campaign is entitled to do whatever it wants to get superdelegates to come over to her side to even out the pledged delegate deficit. My take is that whatever the arguments, the superdelegates aren't going to go against a clear pledged delegate leader. And I think they'd be extremely ill-advised to do so. But the superdelegates do have this power under the rules. But these constant efforts to say the rules aren't fair are just silly, and truth be told I think they're more undermining of the Clinton campaign than they realize.

(Emphasis supplied.) Um, what I have seen is nothing but Obama supporters spending all their time whining about the Clinton's efforts to convince the superdelegates to support Hillary Clinton. One of the arguments the Clinton camp is legitimately making is about the popular vote. And Obama supporters are whining about it.

Indeed, prefacing his complaint about Clinton whining Josh Marshall writes a long whine about those efforts. Josh basically just whined about how unfair the Clintons are being and then wraps up his piece accusing the Clinton forces of whining about "unfairness."

The irony is stark and the "undermining" of TPM as a reliable source of information and opinions about this campaign continues apace. A remarkable post from Josh Marshall.

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  • Display: Sort:
    Obama camp getting desperate... (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by TalkRight on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:14:33 AM EST
    And who is getting negative:

    Obama campaign invokes Monika:

    ABC NEWS: Leading Obama Iowa supporter invokes "Monica's blue dress"

    Obama Camp:

    Americans are rejecting that kind of negativity, ...  "Desperate" Clinton not interested in a politics that tears people down--they're interested in a politics that lifts the country up.


    Woah (none / 0) (#3)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:16:26 AM EST
    That's a very large font.


    [ Parent ]
    voters. It's easier for us to read phonetically when there are very large letters.

    [ Parent ]
    Looks like they are apologizing now (none / 0) (#4)
    by TalkRight on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:19:04 AM EST
    yes the site does have large fonts (to carry out their message .. my guess)!!

    [ Parent ]
    Drop the bomb (5.00 / 4) (#32)
    by waldenpond on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:40:02 AM EST
    and then apologize. Done all the time.

    [ Parent ]
    Well isn't (none / 0) (#8)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:24:25 AM EST
    it Hillary's argument that we need to test every line that republicans may use on Obama.  so he can be "vetted," shouldn't the same be true of her?  Ohh and this comment has nothing to do with this topic.  

    [ Parent ]
    Sure Obama camp can do it (5.00 / 4) (#13)
    by TalkRight on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:27:13 AM EST
    but then lets not let them kid us that Sen Obama is a Once in a lifetime Candidate..

    [ Parent ]
    This might become the talk of the day... (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by TalkRight on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:34:27 AM EST
     Will Olberman gives his special comments to call on Obama camp to not indulge in personal attacks?? Or will he justify that by some idiotic manner that he always manages to do (of course to the dismay of the viewers) !!

    [ Parent ]
    Lets see five minutes (1.00 / 2) (#52)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:48:57 AM EST
    after person makes comment, person backs off.  Olbermann's special comments related to GF.  GF to this day calls Obama racist against white people, and many Clinton supporters still defend her comments, which are not only offensive, but i think proven, once and for all, absolutely untrue by the Wright flare up.

    [ Parent ]
    I (none / 0) (#154)
    by sas on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 09:09:21 PM EST
    no longer watch Olberman.

    I don't care what he says, what he does, or what  he is.

    [ Parent ]

    He is a once in a lifetime candidate.. (5.00 / 4) (#36)
    by FlaDemFem on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:41:34 AM EST
    his own lifetime. He has said that if he doesn't get the nomination he won't run again. Something about being different people later on, and losing touch with "ordinary people" along the way. In other words, if he doesn't get the nod, he is going to take his ball and go home. His wife has said she would "have to think about" supporting Hillary. That does not sound like the actions of committed Democrats. It is not what someone who wants to unite the party does. It is what an opportunist who is serving his own ambition does.

    [ Parent ]
    She said she (none / 0) (#59)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:51:10 AM EST
    would have to think about campaigning for her.  What do you care if after he looses he decides not to run again.  I know vicious campaigns are the "fun part" for Hillary, but, if he looses and decides he doesn't want to go through it again, why does that give you the right to attack him.

    [ Parent ]
    It shows a lack of commitment (5.00 / 2) (#70)
    by FlaDemFem on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:59:12 AM EST
    to the party he is using to further his ambitions. If he were really the change candidate, he would not give up until he had affected that change. And he would be running until that change was implemented. And he would work his butt off in the Senate to see that the change was legislated. So far, he hasn't shown any signs of doing any of that. I think Obama is about Obama and the rest of it is just hot air designed to get votes. I think he is an empty suit with a good speech writer and a good delivery. And I am entitled to my opinion, even if you don't agree with it.

    [ Parent ]
    Well one (none / 0) (#20)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:32:30 AM EST
    the guy apologized and deleted it.  But i don't see how HRC supporters can get all worked up about this stuff.  Republicans will use it, there will be no dogma in the GE.  She says she is vetted, so why would there be any problem with this?

    Obama said he will not do this kind of stuff and this guy took it back, but Clinton seems to be fine with this stuff, so why the offense?


    [ Parent ]

    Please (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by nell on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:49:47 AM EST
    There is so much stuff on Obama that Hillary has not dared to touch, including the Wright stuff. Could you imagine if that had been aired pre-Iowa?

    But if you are talking about issues with his record, issues with his experience, and issues with Rezko, then yes, these need to be out in the open. Remember, it was Obama's campaign that pushed Hsu to the media...he doesn't get the nomination handed to him just because he wants it.

    But, please, let his campaign invoke Monica and watch women run from him.

    [ Parent ]

    Her Campaign (1.00 / 1) (#62)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:53:11 AM EST
    has pushed the wright stuff, which I btw don't have a problem with, its politics.  The only reason she hasn't personally touched it, is because it is politically risky to do it.

    [ Parent ]
    Really? (5.00 / 2) (#121)
    by Marvin42 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 01:09:14 PM EST
    Can you please show us links, proof, evidence on how they pushed the Wright story?

    [ Parent ]
    default logic (5.00 / 2) (#132)
    by ding7777 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 02:26:06 PM EST
    Rev Wright gives mutiple inflammatory sermons

    Trinity sells these inflammatory sermons to the public

    Fox bought and aired the inflammatory sermons

    therefore Hillary pushed the Wright story!

    [ Parent ]

    Obama has gaffed (5.00 / 2) (#129)
    by waldenpond on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 02:15:08 PM EST
    Obama is the one that kept discussing the issue on the radio and referred to his grandmother as a 'typical white person' and sent a photo of Wright to the newspaper.  The only thing the Clinton campaign has done is raise the issue that this will be a serious issue in the GE.  I happen to be one of those that think it will be.

    [ Parent ]
    Because IOKIYAW? (none / 0) (#130)
    by squeaky on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 02:19:04 PM EST
    And that is White, not Wright.

    [ Parent ]
    excuse me (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:20:32 AM EST
    Barack Obama has made his path to legitimacy as the nominee very difficult by blocking Florida and Michigan revotes.

    I have read many different accounts of the failure of revotes.  For Michigan for instance many people think that, it was Clinton's wealthy donors offer to fund it that sunk it.  Also Obama would probably would have supported caucuses, which would have also been cheaper.  Hillary blocked that idea.  So I think it is unfair to suggest that since he didn't agree to the most favorable Clinton scenario it is his fault.  If all she cared about was MI and Fl having a voice it could have been taken care of, but according to you she is allowed to try and cherry pick solutions that most benefit her, if Obama does it he is disenfranchising poeple.

    Yes (5.00 / 6) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:24:48 AM EST
    The offer to fund it was the clincher. Definitely that was what killed it. Almost parody.

    [ Parent ]
    So you would be (none / 0) (#12)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:26:49 AM EST
    ok with GOP funded GE's?  

    [ Parent ]
    If the problem was funding (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by Democratic Cat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:29:37 AM EST
    then the wealthy donors in Sen. Obama's camp should have ponied up half. This is a red herring.

    [ Parent ]
    If Clinton had (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:40:32 AM EST
    agreed to caucuses i'm sure they would have.  but if Clinton is pushing her most favorable scenario and nothing else, I Don't see how it is Obama's fault that it didn't go through.

    [ Parent ]
    Because he sd. he would agree to (5.00 / 3) (#46)
    by oculus on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:46:18 AM EST
    whatever the DNC approved?

    [ Parent ]
    Favorable Scenario (5.00 / 3) (#47)
    by Step Beyond on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:46:34 AM EST
    What was the favorable scenario that Clinton was pushing?

    [ Parent ]
    How is Obama (5.00 / 3) (#118)
    by standingup on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:58:58 PM EST
    going to win the general election if he is afraid a doing a primary?  There won't be a caucus on November 4, 2008.  Why should the Dems nominate a candidate who is unwilling to go the distance to win the nomination?

    [ Parent ]
    Clinton pushed the scenario (5.00 / 3) (#123)
    by Democratic Cat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 01:11:01 PM EST
    most favorable to voters. That it was also favorable to her is happenstance.  Obama pushing a scenario not favorable to voters may help him win the nomination but at the cost of the general.

    [ Parent ]
    Caucuses are not democratic (5.00 / 1) (#142)
    by splashy on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:24:33 PM EST
    They cut out a large group of voters: the disabled, the elderly, the people with families and jobs they have to tend to, and others that can't just manage to spend several hours in the evening and/or on Saturdays.

    That's not to mention the lack of privacy in voting, and having to mingle with all kinds of other people that many would rather not have to have contact with for many reasons.

    I would find a caucus very intimidating, and a real time waster compared to going to a primary that lasts several days, all day long, so I could pick a day that works for me.

    [ Parent ]

    If they were approved (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:31:10 AM EST
    By the DNC and overseen by the state lawmakers who are responsible for the integrity of any election of their state, yes.

    [ Parent ]
    Sure (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:37:03 AM EST
    You have those already in sense - taxes you know.

    [ Parent ]
    Right taxes (none / 0) (#30)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:38:51 AM EST
    that would be exactly like the Haliburton sponsored, 2008 presidential election.

    [ Parent ]
    Ok (5.00 / 4) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:50:59 AM EST
    I see you have skidded into that strange place you sometimes choose to go to.

    Carry on without me.

    [ Parent ]

    Paul Allen has funded elections in (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by MarkL on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:44:01 AM EST
    Seattle and King County. Is that undemocratic?

    [ Parent ]
    What does that have to do with anything (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by Marvin42 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 01:10:48 PM EST
    If the process is clear, open, honest, what does it matter WHO pays for it?

    [ Parent ]
    According to the rules (5.00 / 3) (#14)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:27:54 AM EST
    and MI and FL are Primary votes.

    Line up the talking points about whose fault it is, you'll never be able to get that asterisk off Obama's victory if MI and FL's popular votes aren't counted into the process.

    Obama can still win of course.  

    Although I do believe this is Obama's and Dean's fault, Obama's cause it's obvious he had the most to gain from disenfranchising MI and FL from the get go, and Dean because he doesn't like the Clintons.  And no, that's not a conspiracy theory, that's just two people seeing an advantage and exploiting it.

    But in the end, even if if was Clinton's fault (to block the votes in states that are advantageous to her!!??), the bottom line is Obama is winning cause states weren't counted.

    Not because he's the best candidate.
     

    [ Parent ]

    asterisk (5.00 / 4) (#109)
    by bodhcatha on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:46:26 PM EST
    Obama - the Barry Bonds of politics.  Now if we could get the msm to cover him the way they cover Bonds (that is, with well-deserved skepticism).

    [ Parent ]
    Thats a difficult point to (none / 0) (#28)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:37:06 AM EST
    make i don't think we have had  nominee in recent history that has had to go through a more rigorous primary.  Clinton has had 2nd 3rd and fourth chances to take it back, no other candidate would ever have gotten that.  So I'm sure die hard Clinton supporters, will always wonder what could have been, but it is hard to argue that he had an easy path to the nomination.

    [ Parent ]
    If MI and FL aren't counted (5.00 / 3) (#38)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:42:57 AM EST
    It will be very easy to say things like "He would not have won if MI and FL weren't counted."

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not sure what your point is. Clinton has (5.00 / 4) (#44)
    by MarkL on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:45:03 AM EST
    had several chances because Obama has not closed the sale. So?

    [ Parent ]
    If you go by what you're reading on the blogs, (5.00 / 5) (#63)
    by Anne on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:53:38 AM EST
    then you probably think Obama has been to hell and back, but the truth is that he has had a very easy time of it in the media - and continues to benefit from the unbelievable bias there.

    As for Clinton having 2nd, 3rd and 4th chances, I think the flip side of that is that he has had the same number of chances and has been unable to put her away.  He's got that "great salesman" reputation, but he still hasn't closed the deal.

    And further to a comment you made, above, about why Obama donors should pony up so Clinton can get another chance at winning - the answer is simple: holding a re-vote is not about giving the candidate another chance, it's about respecting the right of the voters to be heard.

    In my opinion, you - and people like Josh MArshall - are allowing your fear about how those re-votes will turn out to trump the overriding principles that are at stake.  And if Obama is the nominee, he will pay dearly for his short-sighted decision to put self-interest over the interests of the people.  A decision, I should add, that does not give me great comfort when I consider how many decisions like that he would have to make as president.

    [ Parent ]

    Actually.... (5.00 / 2) (#74)
    by smott on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:01:25 PM EST
    BO has had about three clear chances to put her away and he has whiffed every time.

    [ Parent ]
    I really don't get (5.00 / 5) (#24)
    by popsnorkle on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:34:57 AM EST
    the complaint about Clinton donors fundiing it.  How does that help her in the election?  Unless they're implying that in exchange for funding it the donors will get a fraudulent election, but how's that possible when all they're providing is the money and they're not running it.

    Seems to me that by funding it they're not using that money to support her campaign in some other way.  Obviously they're judgement is that a revote is good for Clinton, but so what?  Its not guaranted.

    [ Parent ]

    Some fo the responses (5.00 / 3) (#31)
    by Fabian on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:39:46 AM EST
    were practically hysterical, claiming that Clinton was literally attempting to "buy" the election.  Lesser claims were that funds used to for a revote should be considered campaign donations.

    I have to admit that fully funding a revote would have been serious PR coup for Hillary, but a 50/50 funding by both candidates would have removed that.

    [ Parent ]

    Carville (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by waldenpond on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:43:25 AM EST
    and crew challenged the Obama campaign to do this several times.  They then said they had their half and for Obama to get his half.  I forget who, but some with money went to the Obama camp with offers and they weren't accepted.

    [ Parent ]
    Why should (1.00 / 2) (#35)
    by Jgarza on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:41:30 AM EST
    Obama donors pay for her 15th second chance at this?

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, integrity, honesty, transparency. (5.00 / 2) (#57)
    by Fabian on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:50:53 AM EST
    All of those "just words" that mean more to me than Unity! Hope! and Change!.

    Content of his character and all that.

    [ Parent ]

    Oh my (5.00 / 3) (#65)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:53:50 AM EST
    Here, let me ask:  Was New Hampshire a chance that Clinton should not have gotten?

    What "second chances" do you suggest she's been given?

    [ Parent ]

    She already won MI. It's Obama (5.00 / 3) (#71)
    by Joan in VA on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:00:36 PM EST
    who needs the revote to be considered the legitimate winner of the nomination. He blew his second chance.

    [ Parent ]
    So to sum up (5.00 / 3) (#102)
    by bodhcatha on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:25:00 PM EST
    if her donors pay for a re-do, she's trying to buy the election.  But if he's asked to pay half, he's doing her a favor which she doesn't deserve?  Just trying to keep up with the pretzel logic...

    [ Parent ]
    The key word here is CLEAR pledged delegate leader (5.00 / 4) (#6)
    by TalkRight on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:21:39 AM EST
    superdelegates aren't going to go against a clear pledged delegate leader

    I don't see that happening if the difference is just less than 1%

    and btw Richardson himself made that point (5.00 / 6) (#9)
    by TalkRight on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:24:45 AM EST
    Anchor: You said your vote will go for someone who won your state.. Hillary Clinton won your state.
    Richardson: Well, she won by just less than 1% .. I don't think that is significant... I feel Obama is .. a "once.."


    [ Parent ]
    Heh (5.00 / 8) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:25:51 AM EST
    I love that Richardson endorsed Obama.

    He is such an idiot that I will be able to run 3 posts a day using his own words.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, since you support Obama, that is only (none / 0) (#37)
    by MarkL on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:42:09 AM EST
    natural.. but we Hillary supporters will not mind.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh this does not hurt Obama (none / 0) (#42)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:44:10 AM EST
    This HELPS Dems. We need a legitimate nominee.

    [ Parent ]
    But (none / 0) (#48)
    by nell on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:47:24 AM EST
    Without Michigan and Florida being included, I know I will not see him as a legitimate nominee...

    [ Parent ]
    If he leads by 500,000? (none / 0) (#55)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:50:11 AM EST
    Then you will never accept him.

    [ Parent ]
    If (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by nell on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:58:09 PM EST
    If he leads by 500,000 then it is more legitimate, yes, but I do resent that he disenfranchised two states by preventing a revote. That is not what Democrats do...

    [ Parent ]
    apparently it is (none / 0) (#148)
    by DandyTIger on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:32:50 PM EST
    what democrats do, or haven't you been paying attention. I think I now understand what the "new politics" is all about. Snark.

    [ Parent ]
    BTD, (none / 0) (#88)
    by dk on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:11:18 PM EST
    What's your current count on the popular vote?  You might have said it in the past, but I can't remember.

    [ Parent ]
    According to this source (5.00 / 1) (#138)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:16:23 PM EST
    Popular vote totals:

    Obama 12,838,762
    Hillary 13,084,646

    Includes MI and Florida votes
    Excludes caucuses (as do all popular vote totals)

    [ Parent ]

    Hrmmm (none / 0) (#152)
    by thinkingfella on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:51:06 PM EST
    Kind of messy counting on that site, Jeralyn. It actually does include MI giving HC an additional 328,151 and gave Obama zip for same, and doesn't count Washington at all, which did indeed have a primary, albeit one that didn't result in any delegates being awarded.
    Furthermore, I'm a little confused by the thought process here: if the stated goal and/or principal is to not disnefranchise voters, then what is the logic of not counting caucus states? Surely the voters in those states deserve to be counted as much as the voters in FL/MI?


    [ Parent ]
    Your bias is showing (none / 0) (#155)
    by jtaylorr on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 10:22:10 PM EST
    Looks like yet again you fail to mention that those numbers give Obama ZERO votes for Michigan.
    And you're always going on about disenfranchisement, well don't you think not including caucus states in the popular vote total is disenfranchising all those Democrats who took the time to go out and caucus?

    [ Parent ]
    Richardson has a 1% rule (5.00 / 2) (#85)
    by ruffian on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:09:26 PM EST
    What do Kerry and Kennedy have - a 15% rule?

    [ Parent ]
    Risharson (5.00 / 1) (#126)
    by Kahli on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 01:54:25 PM EST
    Well as a voter in New Mexico, I don't appreciate his deciding that he should make and exception for himself and Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    The Clinton campaign (none / 0) (#131)
    by independent voter on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 02:24:19 PM EST
    has been pushing that the super delegates should vote however they feel best, regardless of how their state votes.
    You can't have it both ways.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm speaking for myself (none / 0) (#137)
    by Kahli on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:09:06 PM EST
    Not the Clinton campaign.  

    I resent his putting his choice above that of his constituents.

    It is not as bad as Cheney's "So", but it is a lesser example of the same kind of arrogance.

    [ Parent ]

    Excellent (none / 0) (#54)
    by nell on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:50:08 AM EST
    Excellent point.

    [ Parent ]
    how about Richardson going on teevee (5.00 / 4) (#7)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:23:15 AM EST
    and telling every talking head that would listen about how "upset" Hillary was and how "heated" the conversation about his betrayal was.
    that seemed the perfect window into the mans character.


    The only good thing Richardson has (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by oculus on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:31:23 AM EST
    sd. post-endorsement is that McPeak's McCarthy comment was poor.  But Obama campaign isn't backing away much from that comment.

    [ Parent ]
    Which, btw, (5.00 / 2) (#97)
    by lilburro on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:18:39 PM EST
    if we use the logic applied to Bob Johnson's comments early on in January, couldn't have been an accident or an opinion exclusive to McPeak, because supporters of a candidate are prepped and prompted before they speak, and thus EVERYTHING they say is directly and totally the fault of the person they are supporting.

    [ Parent ]
    you forgot the caveat (5.00 / 4) (#106)
    by bodhcatha on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:36:16 PM EST
    unless it's Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Count all the votes (5.00 / 4) (#21)
    by Coral Gables on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:33:46 AM EST
    It's not if Obama holds a 500,000 lead not counting the popular vote in Fl and MI. He needs to have the popular vote lead counting FL and MI. The DNC can take away delegates but you can't nullify the people's vote. If he leads in delegate count and popular vote counting both these states after the primary season, then it's time for Clinton to step aside. If not, she has every right to take her case to the convention.

    Absolutely (none / 0) (#83)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:08:01 PM EST

    The DNC can prevent the elected delegates from being seated, but the votes are the votes.

    Signature Song
    [ Parent ]

    If the popular vote is close (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by andrys on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:35:30 AM EST
    If the popular vote is close and Clinton has won almost all the big states, getting an electoral vote edge (while Obama is weak in Rasmussen's March 22 electoral poll but Clinton beats McCain that day), I'll also consider what you already know, that the caucuses are not very representative for reasons we've all given.  Seniors, labor-groups (not many can leave work), families with very young children, people without transportation to the far fewer caucusing areas, the intense gathering of activists, and young people from colleges.

    - Andrys


    Obama's win (5.00 / 3) (#43)
    by Andy08 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:44:20 AM EST
    without FL & MI will never be seen as a legitimate win.

    True... (5.00 / 3) (#49)
    by AmyinSC on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:47:50 AM EST
    And the whole CAUCUS thing has been a debacle.  The Obama campaign's strong-arming and intimidation have been well documented, so I have a hard time with the whole "pledged delegate" thing he has going on.  Just look at the difference between the caucuses in Washington State, and the popular vote!  The latter was VERY close; the former, not so much.  It has proven to be a problem repeatedly, and has certainly benefitted Obama.

    I know, I know - nothing can be done abt it this time, but just bear in mind that the SD exist to overcome some of these isues.

    Still, if FL and MI are counted - AND THEY SHOULD BE - it will be a very clsoe contest, indeed.

    [ Parent ]

    I read Josh (5.00 / 2) (#61)
    by Lahdee on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:52:02 AM EST
    daily and despite this post I'll continue to do it. Gotta be honest, I couldn't get by "Player A has a Straight Flush; Player B has four of a kind. Then B says well, sure, if you're counting straights, but if we were adding up the numbers rather than going by straights winning, I'd have won."

    Okay, so I read your post and then go back and read the whole thing. My comment, WTF.

    Is the drumbeat from obamasphere that deafening?

    Rules (5.00 / 3) (#69)
    by Step Beyond on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:58:51 AM EST
    Ah but if the rules state you need a royal straight flush to win and no one gets it out right then other rules come into play.

    Since superdelegates are not bound by any rules, including delegate leads or popular vote leads, people are free to speculate on what they should do. Of course, what they eventually do is up to them. For people to suggest that only the delegate lead matters are only stating an opinion that has no more basis in the rules than someone who suggest that only the popular vote lead matters.

    [ Parent ]

    Sorry, I don't play backgammon (none / 0) (#104)
    by bodhcatha on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:33:54 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Bill Richardson or John Murtha? (5.00 / 3) (#66)
    by countme on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:54:15 AM EST
    In my opinion Hillary Clinton received a much stronger endorsement from John Murtha - the leading critic in the anti-war movement - then Barack Obama did from Bill Richardson. Can anyone tell me why then Barack is getting more air time with his endorsement then Hillary did? As a matter of fact Hillary has not received any main stream media airplay with her endorsement of not one but two super delicates. John Murtha plays a key role in PA for Hillary and the timing is perfect as apposed to Bill Richardson's timing which does not make any since at this time for Obama. As a matter of fact Obama shoud have won the endorsement from John Murtha since Obama is "the Anti war candidate" . it just goes to show you "the Mustard is off the hotdog" My favorite quote from Chick Hern

    You (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by tek on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:01:37 PM EST
    are so right.  I didn't know until I read an article on Yahoo! that she has 13 Senate endorsements to Obama's 11.

    [ Parent ]
    um, that would be media bias. (n/t) (5.00 / 1) (#76)
    by DandyTIger on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:03:21 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I noticed that, too. But not surprised. (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by Joan in VA on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:12:29 PM EST
    She only gets negative airtime anymore. He makes a speech-covered in total. She makes a speech-20 second cut. And 24/7 negative from talking heads. Love that "mustard off the hot dog". lol

    [ Parent ]
    Considering (5.00 / 2) (#72)
    by tek on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:00:47 PM EST
    everything we now know about the caucuses, I'm not sure how Obama supporters think he would be a "legitimate" nominee.  I think the Democrats should fight to the bitter end to keep Obama off the top of the ticket because he looks more unelectable everyday.  I will never understand why any liberal person would believe that Obama will steer this country in the direction of an authentic democracy.  Maybe the Obama people have a different vision of what the country should be.

    yup (none / 0) (#78)
    by smott on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:04:05 PM EST
    ...I think in Denver we're going to have one candidate ahead in delagets and (perhaps narrowly) ahead in popular vote, and one candidate with the mo, all the swings, and no asterisk.

    Who wants to be a Super?

    [ Parent ]

    People (5.00 / 1) (#80)
    by tek on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:05:42 PM EST
    should remember that Bill Clinton did not sew up the nomination until June.

    TPM (5.00 / 3) (#87)
    by wintermute on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:10:53 PM EST
    One of the more depressing things for me about this primary campaign has been seeing sites like TPM really going off the rails, in the sense of repeatedly trotting our arguments that can't withstand even minimal scrutiny, in giving instant credence to sources like the Drudge Report and The Politico, in holding up to ridicule only the advisors of one campaign even where advisors from both campaigns make gaffes and missteps of similar magnitude, in giving the "screaming headline" treatment to negative stories afflicting one campaign while ignoring or burying negative stories affecting the other - and in every instance, the slant is towards Obama, even as the site continues this affectation of being neutral.

    Agreed (5.00 / 2) (#114)
    by eric on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:51:30 PM EST
    And even stranger I noticed today that Atrios linked favorably to this TPM post.  I think he indicated that it was proof that the Clinton campaign was saying "stupid stuff".

    As BTD points out, this certainly isn't stupid stuff.  I am most disturbed by the recitation of the theme that Obama is pushing,
    Atrios writes:

    "But for several weeks now there's just been this steady stream of downright insulting stuff coming out of the Clinton campaign.

    Several weeks?  WTF is he talking about?  Both campaigns have done some stupid stuff here and there and lately as well.  This sounds like one of those narratives that Obama's people is pushing.  Along with the "The Clinton's [plural] are dirty", "The Clinton's will say anyting," "There is a disturbing pattern of racism in the Clinton campaign", etc.

    [ Parent ]

    It's too close to call. (5.00 / 3) (#92)
    by WillBFair on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:13:09 PM EST
    And I can't give up if there's a chance of getting our greatest policy experts back in office. Of course we don't want it by letting go of democratic values like fairness, integrity, and respect for others, as Obama's supporters did long ago, and he is doing by trying to register democrats for a day. If they win by remaking the the party, so be it. At least we will have kept our center of balance.
    http://a-civilife.blogspot.com

    How Clinton Wins Popular Vote... (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by Exeter on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 01:21:15 PM EST
    I actually don't accept the conventional wisdom that it is not feasible for Clinton to win the popular vote without Michigan and Florida.

    According to Real Clear Politics, her popular vote deficit without Florida and Michigan is 821K.  

    Here is my projection of the results, turnout, and margin of victory in the final primaries:

    Pennsylvania: If Clinton wins 57-43, projected total turnout 2.2 million, margin would be approximately 350k votes.

    Indiana: If Clinton wins 57-43, with total turnout of 728K, margin would be approximately 100K votes.

    West Virginia: If Clinton wins 65-35, with projected turnout of 245K, margin would be approximately 75K votes.

    Kentucky: If Clinton wins 65-35, with projected turn out of 535k, margin would be approximately 150K votes.

    North Carolina: If Clinton wins 52-48, 1.2 million projected turnout, margin would be approximately 50K votes.

    Oregon: If Clinton wins by a 52-48 margin, projected turnout 707K, margin would be approximatley 25K votes.

    Puerto Rico: If Clinton wins 55-45, projected Turnout 1.5 million, margin would be approximately 150K votes.

    Montana: If Obama wins 60-40, projected turnout of 131K, margin would be approximately 25K margin.

    South Dakota: If Obama wins 60-40, projected turnout of 112K, margin is approximately by 25K.

    End result?  Between now and the final state election, I project that Clinton picks up approximately 900K votes in her wins, loses approximately 50k in her defeats, and after the last state ends up with a popular vote margin of victory of 25K votes.  

    I believe my numbers are not only feasible, but actually probable based on polling, the trends of this race, and the momentum swing she will achieve after a strong victory in Pennsylvania.

    After she wins the popular vote, she will be able to argue that she won the popular vote even without two of her biggest states being included and counting all of Obama's undemocratic caucus state victories.

    Superdelegates would be very hard-pressed to deny Clinton the nomination if she is able to lay these cards on the table.

    thank you for that (none / 0) (#127)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 02:05:14 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    That's the reason Obama and his supporters have (none / 0) (#150)
    by TalkRight on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:40:23 PM EST
    up their ante asking Hillary to quit now.. before it is too late for him

    I am feeling confident now than I was at anytime in this race

    [ Parent ]

    I agree... (none / 0) (#153)
    by Exeter on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:53:23 PM EST
    For a campaign that is "simply annoyed" that Clinton has not dropped out, they sure are having alot of conniption fits over the slighest provocation.

    And on the, flipside, what does Clinton have to gain by staying in if she didn't genuinely believe she had a decent chance of winning?  She's not dumb -- she get let Obama get fried and run again in four years, but she knows the math and she knows she can with the popular vote.

    [ Parent ]

    yes thanks from me too, Excellent analysis (none / 0) (#151)
    by DandyTIger on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:42:57 PM EST
    That would be truly amazing if Hillary could win or be within 100K votes in the popular vote without MI or FL. The SD's and DNC leadership would nominate Obama with those stats and their own peril. It would be FL 2000 all over again.

    Let the primary play out. Count the votes.

    [ Parent ]

    Clinton wins (none / 0) (#156)
    by jtaylorr on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 10:27:38 PM EST
    Indiana, North Carolina and, of all places, Oregon?!

    What planet are you on?

    [ Parent ]

    Obama campaign (none / 0) (#158)
    by Exeter on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:42:39 PM EST
    thinks Oregon will be 53-47, in Obama's favor. I think it will go slightly in Clinton's favor. Either way, it will be close.

    [ Parent ]
    PhDs in history (3.00 / 2) (#133)
    by Mike Pridmore on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 03:00:16 PM EST
    specialize in arcane nonsense.  For Josh Marshall to pretend that counting votes is arcane nonsense is one thing.  For him to pretend he doesn't know how, or that he is not fascinated by details, goes against everything of his I have ever read, including his 2004 support of Hillary's AUMF vote.

    1 for anti-intellectualism (none / 0) (#134)
    by Cream City on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 03:26:42 PM EST
    and a slur that, if about other attributes of commenters here, would not be condoned at all.

    [ Parent ]
    Are you doing that (none / 0) (#140)
    by Mike Pridmore on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:21:30 PM EST
    because I used the word nonsense?  It wasn't meant to be anti-intellectual at all but rather a comment on the fact that PhDs in history are usually detail people.  And have you seen how deep into the weeds you have to get in a PhD dissertation?  I used the words nonsense only because for most people outside one's field a dissertation would bore them to tears.  I didn't mean that perjoratively but as a matter of general observation.  Speaking as someone who has over 160 graduate hours, I don't think I could be anti-intellectual even if I wanted to.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, I personally have seen (none / 0) (#146)
    by Cream City on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:31:05 PM EST
    how deep a dissertation in Historygoes, but what you see as weeds, I found a garden of opportunity for growth that trained my mind to envision and grasp larger questions than ever I had before.

    The "detail" you despise as "arcane" is the evidence that supports an argument -- or not.  Those who know how to read history are generally observing many more of those dissertations than you realize.  They became books that are widely read, as History is one of the most popular areas of public readership.

    I was fortunate to have as an advisor the teacher of one of my first courses, one who taught me one of the best lessons.  To our class that had come in, as usual, to tear apart the works assigned that week, he finally said:  Just wait until you have written a book.  Until then, at least attempt humilitas.  Or at least attempt to not trumpet how much you do not yet know.

    [ Parent ]

    Arcane is not (none / 0) (#149)
    by Mike Pridmore on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:36:11 PM EST
    a perjorative word to me.  You mistook my meaning I think.  Here is the first dictionary definition (language is my area of specialty by the way):

    known or understood by very few; mysterious; secret; obscure; esoteric:

    What meaning are you assigning to the word?

    [ Parent ]

    And by the way, (none / 0) (#147)
    by Mike Pridmore on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:31:18 PM EST
    if anything I hold Josh to higher standards than some other people precisely because he has a PhD.  He has played dumb with me in e-mails from time to time (BTD can witness to this) but I respect his intelligence, particularly when he is chasing down the details of a story like the background of the Niger yellowcake story.

    [ Parent ]
    Do you think (none / 0) (#2)
    by Edgar08 on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:14:58 AM EST
    ..  That some aspiring pundit/"journalists" may also be experiencing some sort of dissociateive disorder.

    Not that it matters.  Wether Josh knows he's wrong or not doesn't really matter.


    More Than Anything Else (5.00 / 8) (#18)
    by The Maven on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:31:52 AM EST
    it's the appalling unacknowledged hypocrisy among so many in the blogosphere and elsewhere, both in terms of assessing behavior by each of the campaigns and their spokespeople, as well as in flippantly ignoring their own past pronouncements on issue after issue.

    This kind of rewriting of what they ostensibly stand for might be acceptable if they at least said that current circumstances had led them to "refine" their position, but too many of them appear to have been blinded by staring into the sun to realize the inconsistencies in what they write.  This is the danger in taking absolutist positions and then fixing the facts around them.  And we've seen what follows from that.

    [ Parent ]

    When you speak in such strong terms (none / 0) (#60)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:52:01 AM EST
    I feel confident I have not gone too far.

    Welcome to TalkLeft Maven.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm Not Naming Names (5.00 / 2) (#112)
    by The Maven on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 12:49:57 PM EST
    so I'll leave it open as to whom I'm referring.

    What makes this all so galling to me is that unlike election cycles in the past, posts were done by people who were little more than names or pseudonyms on a screen, whereas now I know (or at least have met) many of these people personally, so it's much harder to take.  I've kept up a very tenuous relationship with the orange place lately, but pretty much only go to selected diaries on "non-political" issues when their authors have sent me direct links.

    I consider myself a longstanding member of the reality-based community and a hard-headed rationalist, so to see other folks perceive skepticism as a threat is distressing to me.  I'd like to hope that this all will pass, but I started saying that last fall, and the stridency and tone has only gotten worse and worse.  Sigh . . .

    [ Parent ]

    Popular vote (none / 0) (#19)
    by dannyinla on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:32:07 AM EST
    I think if HRC gets close enough (or surpasses Obama) on popular vote then the SDs will indeed have a choice to make... but that's supposedly why they are SDs.

    But I don's see how we get an accurate read of popular vote:

    MI is tainted by the fact that only HRC was on the ballot.

    Then there's Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine - since these are only popular vote estimates - what happens in a razor thin popular vote final tally?

    Exactly my point (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:35:52 AM EST
    Obama's stopping the revotes in FL and MI mean that he needs to have a non-FL/MI popular vote lead of 500k to have a clean untainted PV win.

    [ Parent ]
    SO HRC gets her 300K in FL (none / 0) (#40)
    by dannyinla on Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:43:43 AM EST
    and a 200K vote lead in MI?

    Based on what do you come up with that figure

    HRC got 328K in MI (which was 60% of 600K total votes).  Obama was polling at about 25% with Edwards in the race), so Obama would get 150K. Or a 175K vote leads in MI.  

    That comes to 375K to HRC for FL and MI.  Where's the other 125K come from in your 500K scena