C-Span-Reuters Poll: Hillary Stems Obama's TX Gain

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:21:00 AM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, 2008 (all tags)

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A new poll of likely Democratic voters from C-Span, Reuters and the Houston Chronicle, by Zogby shows a dead heat in Texas and Ohio with Hillary gaining and stemming Obama's recent lead there.

Democrat Hillary Clinton stemmed her losses and solidified her base in Texas, reversing a slide against rival Barack Obama in the race for their party’s presidential nomination, while Obama continued his thrust to catch her in Ohio as voters in these two big states prepare to vote on Tuesday, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day rolling telephone tracking polls show.

Hillary has closed the gap on the male vote, with Obama only leading in that category by 5%.

More good news for Hillary:

Clinton had a big day Friday in the Zogby call center, leading Obama by double-digits in the Texas survey. She retains a significant lead among Hispanic voters there, a key demographic in the Democratic primary.

In Ohio, the latest poll shows Hillary and Obama in a dead heat. [More...]

In Ohio, the two Democrats have drawn dead-even to the tenth of a percent (44.8% each), as Clinton continued to show strength in northern Ohio outside Cleveland, but trailed Obama badly in northeast Ohio and in burgeoning central Ohio, where the capital city of Columbus is home to many state government workers. Clinton leads in the more sparsely-populated, less affluent southern Ohio region. She also retains a small lead among Catholics, an important voting bloc in this Rust Belt state.

This could be important in November because Ohio's winner needs to take the southern, rural areas.

Also, as I wrote yesterday, a Fox News poll has Hillary ahead in Ohio.

Back to Texas for a moment, Hillary's gains may not be enough because of Obama's strength in Dallas and Houston which will get more delegates than the districts favoring her in the south.

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C-Span-Reuters Poll: Hillary Stems Obama's TX Gain | 25 comments (25 topical)

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Zogby. . . (5.00 / 4) (#1)
by andgarden on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:17:14 AM EST

uh oh.

Yep (5.00 / 4) (#3)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:22:19 AM EST

Jeralyn cites him seriously. I never will.

[ Parent ]

I agree... (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by sar75 on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:25:27 AM EST

with BTD's thought's on Zogby.

This is probably not the poll we should be citing as evidence of a positive trend for Hillary. Perhaps we should not that Zogby now has Clinton and Obama tied in Ohio at 45. I mean, if we're citing Zogby polls...

[ Parent ]

Zogby's all about ... (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by Robot Porter on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:32:50 AM EST

getting headlines and cash with his "surprising poll numbers."

[ Parent ]

: He's such a contrarian! (none / 0) (#9)
by diplomatic on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:37:30 AM EST

Second only to Mickey Kaus in painfully countering conventional wisdom at the cost of all personal dignity.

[ Parent ]

I beat Jeralyn to the punch on this one (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by diplomatic on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:31:58 AM EST

I had posted this poll in the Ohio poll thread, but I did make sure to call Zogby a "dart thrower"

Anyway, I don't Hillary will be getting the champagne just yet. If anything, a Zogby trend in your direction is a bad omen!

[ Parent ]

BTD, 'Polling' TL (none / 0) (#15)
by FoxholeAtheist on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 12:43:07 PM EST

I just started coming to this site a couple of weeks ago (had previously followed election reform sites like BradBlog). What is your sense of the Demographics here at TL, in terms of relative numbers of Clinton supporters and Obama supporters?

[ Parent ]

Atheist (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by carolyn13 on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 01:09:35 PM EST

I'm fairly new here myself though I've read Talk Left on and off for years. This has been mostly a blog about how legal issues affect politics and vice versa. It is, imo, the best legal blog in the blogosphere.

Quite a few people have come to this site in the past two months, many of them Hillary supporters because this was one of the few sites that allowed them a voice. Jeralyn and BTD have done an outstanding job of keeping this site a place for open debate between supporters of both camps.

For a brief time, there were more Hillary supporters than Obama supporters but the presence of pro Hillary people attracted Obama people and thus the great debate was born.

So the answer to your question is nobody knows, it is in flux, and the real regulars here are in hiding from the storm. :)

[ Parent ]

: Carolyn, thanks for the backstory of TL (none / 0) (#25)
by FoxholeAtheist on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 03:19:58 AM EST

Others have shortened Foxhole Atheist to FHA - otherwise it is a rather long handle,

[ Parent ]

Pollster has (none / 0) (#6)
by andrewwm on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:32:31 AM EST

Obama up by 4%, and 4 out of 6 of the polls in the last two days show Obama with a significant lead. It's gonna be close.

[ Parent ]

Hmm (none / 0) (#12)
by Shawn on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:57:50 AM EST

What do you consider "significant"? The only ones here that are outside the margin of error are the historically crappy ARG and Zogby, whose poll has just tightened. And one of the polls showing Obama slightly ahead, Public Strategies, flipped back to a small Clinton lead last night.

[ Parent ]

: There's a difference between (none / 0) (#19)
by andrewwm on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 01:18:08 PM EST

statistical significance and substantive significance. So I chose my words carefully there. There are a few that are on the edge of the pollsters 95% confidence interval (Rasmussen, for example) that I consider to be significant, even if it doesn't meet the strict .05 [insert joke about how God must really love .05] level of statistical significance.

[ Parent ]

That was my feeling (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by NJDem on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:20:22 AM EST

Zogby & good news for HRC--has hell frozen over? Is this some type of as trick?

Hillary will be happy with just popular vote (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by diplomatic on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:36:07 AM EST

Look, even if Obama manages to win more delegates in Texas...the Clinton campaign will be pretty happy just to win the popular vote there. (especially if she can win Ohio with a good margin)

That little checkmark next to the name of the "winner" on all the newscasts makes a big impression. And that litle checkmark goes next to the popular vote winner. Fair or not, it is the most important thing on election night.

: Unfortunately (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by CognitiveDissonance on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 12:18:45 PM EST

the networks will then revert to the Clinton rules - if Hillary wins the popular vote, don't count it as a win if Obama wins the delegate count. (Reference Nevada). You know the MSM will never give Hillary any credit for anything. They still have yet to acknowledge that she is the first woman to ever win a primary in the United States.

[ Parent ]

Just flush the Zogby and ARG numbers (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by fuzzyone on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 12:10:26 PM EST

certainly lets not waste space on them. I repeat what I have said before. I really think, esp in Texas, that the pollsters have no idea who is going to turnout. I have no idea what is going to happen Tuesday. Should be exciting.

Zogby Poll: (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by coigue on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 01:15:33 PM EST

70 percent of us voters think Zogby polls suck.

18% say they're OK.

20% are undecided.

When asked about the results, Zogby pollsters said, "hey, it's not like it was a SUSA poll or something."

wouldn't it be funny (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by Tano on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 04:28:20 PM EST

if Clinton won TX, but Obama won Ohio.

No one can say this election season hasn't been one of the best mental roller coaster rides imaginable.

Texas - popular vote vs. Caucus (none / 0) (#10)
by catfish on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:48:23 AM EST

What if Hillary wins the popular vote but Obama wins the caucus vote?

: hmmmm (none / 0) (#11)
by myed2x on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 11:55:22 AM EST

you must not understand the methodology around here...
You see if HRC wins the popular vote and loses the caucuses, then she wins and it's on to Ohio!!
Conversely, if she wins the caucuses and loses the popular vote she wins again and it's on to Ohio!!
See how easy that is? You then rinse and repeat until the super-delegates change it all anyway and one side screams bloody murder, becomes disillusioned, thereby allowing the Republicans to take the Presidency and the US never recovers. End of story.

[ Parent ]

Zogby Still Throws Cold Water on Clinton (none / 0) (#16)
by AdrianLesher on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 12:47:20 PM EST

Since you're relying on this poll, you might note this bit of Zogby analysis:

"However, it is important to note that Barack Obama continues to hold big leads among voters in Dallas and in Houston, where there is a heavy concentration of congressional districts and, therefore, delegates to the Democratic National Convention. By most accounts, Clinton needs to win big in both Texas and Ohio to make significant inroads in Obama's delegate lead, and our polling shows that is going to be difficult for her to accomplish.

2 weeks ago she was leading in both by (none / 0) (#20)
by kenosharick on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 04:16:59 PM EST

TWENTY POINTS. This is not good news. Tie goes to Barack. The media and blogs will portray him as the winner no matter what happens.

Don't think so (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by Marvin42 on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 05:03:32 PM EST

I believe at this point the whole story is who will win the popular vote. With all the Obama Momentum Stories IF he loses both in popular vote, even by 1 vote, it will be seen and spun as he stumbled. There is an unreasonable high bar set for him by the media: that he is just blowing Hillary away everywhere (remember the constant 11 in a row?).

So 2 loses in a row will mess the story up.

[ Parent ]

: u are kidding right? (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by kenosharick on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 08:21:24 PM EST

High bar? The media has been cheerleading him for months and will declare him the winner on Tuesday no matter what the vote is. Everything is ALWAYS spun to help him- of course they will soon turn on him to help elect mccain.

[ Parent ]

Zogby's brother is an Obama superdelegate (none / 0) (#23)
by CitizenTR on Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 05:38:07 PM EST

I'm just amazed that so many organizations use Zogby polls without the disclosure that his brother, Jim Zogby, is a superdelegate for Obama. Check it out on demconwatch.org.

Also, John Zogby, the pollster, is very biased toward Obama and his polls seem to be inflated in favor of Obama in order to influence public opinion.