Obama And Clinton Will Need Each Other In The GE
By Big Tent Democrat
This is a new position for me. Before I believed Clinton would definitely choose Obama as her running mate because he can help her keep the excitement he has engendered, provide some of the Media Darling status he holds, emphasize the historic nature of the Democratic ticket and energize the Obama parts of the Democratic coalition. But I did not believe Obama need choose Clinton. I now believe that Obama will need Clinton as well. Most, including me, have completely misunderstood how Hillary Clinton has energized her part of the Democratic coalition, especially women.
Today we are hearing about a new Time poll that has Obama running stronger than Hillary against McCain. Generally speaking, looking at GE matchups this far out is an absurd exercise. So much will still happen before we get anywhere close to the election that trying to decipher who will run best in the GER is a futile exercise. That said, I DO believe Obama has the POTENTIAL to run better against McCain than Hillary, for the reasons I have previously expressed. But there are major pitfalls for Obama and some of them have been highlighted on Super Tuesday and the days following.
More . . .
The Demographics.
The internals of the Time poll were not provided. We have no breakdown of the Dems, GOP and Indies. We have no gender demos nor ethnic demos. Why does this matter? Clearly these demos are important to determining how each candidate will perform. If Time does not believe the turnout of women, African Americans, Latinos etc. will NOT be affected by who is running, then they have lousy pollsters. But this poll derives its results from an unchanging voter poll. That is not realistic.
To me the big questions for Obama are (1) will women turn out in big numbers for him? Will he run up the score on McCain with women? I think the answer for Clinton is yes on both.
By the same token, Clinton is likely to NOT do as well with men as Obama will. The same for African Americans.
Similarly, I think Clinton will do better with Latinos against McCain than will Obama.
Obama has been a wine track candidate with overwhelming African American support, a potent electoral cocktail. But he has not done well with women, Latinos and working class whites. Clinton has done well with all 3.
To have the big "realigning" election that every Dem wants, we need both. Which means we need BOTH Clinton and Obama in November.
I do not care if they like each other or not - the Democratic Party needs both of them. both need to be on the ticket. Let the voters decide in the next few months, but the decision for November seems clear to me now - Obama and Clinton, Clinton and Obama, we need both in November.
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