Super Sunday And Super Tuesday

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:11:34 AM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

The Super Bowl is today and I do believe today and tomorrow will have less focus on politics than any 2 days this year. What effect that will have I do not know but politics will become the top story again when the votes are being cast and counted.

The state of the race for Super Tuesday is well matched among the Democrats. Barack Obama is well funded, well covered and well endorsed. He has no excuses. Results are just results now.

Playing expectations games, something the Obama campaign has never been particularly good at, no longer matters. Winning states and delegates matter. This is a relief. Let's put the pundits on the sidelines for a while. The blogs too. NOTE: One last piece of punditry - On MTP, Russert asks "what happens if Clinton loses California? Carville says "it would be bad." Well, presumably winning California then would be good. For the spin of the night, it all comes down to California. Which means it will be way late that night before the spin of the night is decided.

It is time for the voters to decide.

< What to Expect From John McCain | Zogby: Romney Leads In California >

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Super Sunday And Super Tuesday | 51 comments (51 topical)

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Super Bowl? (none / 0) (#1)
by JHFarr on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:23:18 AM EST

Not everyone gives a damn about the Super Bowl. None of my friends do, and I don't even know who's playing today. :-)

Well (none / 0) (#2)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:25:39 AM EST

Perhaps the rest of the country will follow your lead.

I doubt it though.


Football (none / 0) (#36)
by Satya1 on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:21:18 AM EST

is the opiate of the people.


Until March; then (none / 0) (#45)
by Cream City on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:50:38 PM EST

it's basketball.

Until April; then it's baseball.


March: Spring training. (none / 0) (#46)
by oculus on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 01:13:28 PM EST

: April: Opening day (none / 0) (#48)
by Cream City on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 01:52:09 PM EST

but yeh, the spring training buzz comes all too soon, too. . . .

BTD, you and I have a problem. (none / 0) (#3)
by Teresa on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:31:01 AM EST

The biggest political night of the year other than the GE, and our Vols and Gators play on ESPN. What a choice.

As far as Tuesday, I was reading the way delegates are proportioned. The state in the example was California. I don't see anyway we won't be practically tied after Tuesday because the winner has to have a near blowout to get the majority in the congressional districts. They'll almost all be 3-3 or 3-2 or 2-2 even if HC or BO has a pretty decent size win in a district.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but this set up seems to help the underdog an awful lot (and I'm not sure who the underdog is at this point).

No brainer (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:34:29 AM EST

Go Gators!


Ha! I think we'll take you in Knoxville! (none / 0) (#5)
by Teresa on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:40:00 AM EST

I think I'll watch the game and depend on Jeralyn to blog the results. I didn't realize until last night that our game was Tuesday. I took off work Wednesday just to watch the results so I am really torn. Just think of the results we'll miss from 9-11.

My two obsessions competing with each other.


Cali closes at 11 EST (none / 0) (#6)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:42:34 AM EST

And will not be called probably until 2 or 3 in the morning.


I just read on DKos that Rasmussen has (none / 0) (#7)
by Teresa on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:48:56 AM EST

Obama up two now in California. I think we will be up really late for that one. This is a political junkies dream.


: My take is that Hillary is up more than a few (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:55:01 AM EST

in Cali and that Zogby and Ras are not doing Obama any favors on this.
Obama needs to win California now to win the night spinwise.

: but you have probably never read (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by english teacher on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:01:45 AM EST

on dk that hillary has been the clear front runner throughout the entire campaign and demolished obama in florida. sorry i couldn't resist.

Clinton needs to win CA. (none / 0) (#8)
by Geekesque on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:53:09 AM EST

Obama needs to finish within 10 points and prevent her from running up the score in the delegate count.

So, it's conceivable that both would get what they need.

Not anymore (none / 0) (#10)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 09:55:55 AM EST

Obama needs to win Cali now.

The story now is Cali is a tossup.

He needs to win Cali to win the spin for the night.


i mean (none / 0) (#12)
by english teacher on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:07:43 AM EST

how are obama's people trying to rationalize him staying in after tuesday if he loses or is close?

why are they not even breathing the possibility that he might lose as badly or worse on tuesday as he did in florida?

what purpose will him staying in serve?

what agenda is he pushing?

there is no key difference between him that justifies his candidacy, except that he made a speech on an issue he had no say in.

if he comes up short on tuesday, continuing to hang around will only hurt the party and hamstring clintons ability to clean up after bush. obama staying in the campaign takes focus off the issue of cleaning up after bush. i strongly feel it will be time for him to step aside on wednesday.


from what I have read, Obama (none / 0) (#13)
by Teresa on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:11:37 AM EST

is very strong in the states just after Super Tuesday. There's no way he'll drop out. He has a very real chance to win and if the people vote for him, I'll accept it and wish him total success. If he governs half as well as he inspires, it could turn out all good.


Careful trusting what you read (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:58:17 AM EST

: VA. MD, and DC on February 12 (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by Geekesque on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:25:08 PM EST

are all Obama country.
He's got the VA establishment behind him, and MD and DC are heavily Af-Am.

And I say that as someone who voted for (none / 0) (#14)
by Teresa on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:15:30 AM EST

HC this week and I will never forget how some of his supporters and the media have totally trashed and misrepresented both Clintons. Obama, I can forgive, he's just a politician. The supporters who think HC embodies all things evil, never. A part of me will take pleasure in their pain when he disappoints them as all Presidents do.

That's if they don't justify every decision he makes as the right one even when it isn't.


As a HRC supporter, I wish (none / 0) (#18)
by brodie on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:40:12 AM EST

it would play out that way. Alas, in this strange pro-Obama media world, the more likely outcome, even with a Hillary victory, will be wild spin in favor of Obama. Noting how far he came in the polls from just a coupla months ago. Noting how he got nearly as many CA delegates as HRC, etc.

Unfortunately for my side, HRC really does need to win CA. It's key to her going forward with momentum into the next round. A loss here would be tremendously dispiriting to her supporters and would send a signal to voters and superdelegates in later states that BHO might be the horse to back.

I'm cautiously optimistic about HRC winning, but there's no question Obama has had tremendous positive pub lately, and those two Kennedy endorsements, plus their stumping for him and the media saturation of Caroline's excellent tv ad, along with Oprah campaigning, are all adding to a great deal of BHO buzz.

Optimistic but very nervous ...


if Obama does not win (none / 0) (#38)
by Kathy on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:46:52 AM EST

CA, then the spin will be that he didn't have enough time. They will point to his gains in the polls and say that if he'd had another week, then he would have beaten Hillary. I guarantee you that is how they will play it. They said the same thing after Florida.

This, of course, completely ignores that Hillary had the same amount of time as he did.


If he was ahead on Sunday (none / 0) (#39)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:49:40 AM EST

how could he have not had enough time?

California is becoming like NH.


: "Not enough time" (5.00 / 1) (#49)
by Kathy on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 01:57:19 PM EST

was the line they used in Florida--if Obama had had more time. If he'd been able to campaign there. If, if, if...all used to ignore her win, or diminish it in some way.
I am saying that is what the Obama camp spin will be.

: He's not ahead in CA. (none / 0) (#44)
by Geekesque on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:34:01 PM EST

Very few polls show him ahead. Some show him within the margin of error, others show him behind by 5-9 points.

No he doesn't. (none / 0) (#42)
by Geekesque on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:23:55 PM EST

It's still about delegates
He'll win plenty of other states
He's been behind as much as 30 points there. Clinton has been a heavy favorite for a long time there.
Clinton is probably broke. She raised $10 Million to his $32 Million.

: if he stays in (none / 0) (#47)
by english teacher on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 01:27:52 PM EST

just to siphon off delegates even though he can't win what purpose could he possibly be serving? do you even hear what you are saying? the reason for him to stay in is to weaken party unity at the convention. brilliant!
it's not like he's the anti war candidate or anything. there's no solid agenda that he wants to achieve that is any different than hillary clinton. he is just arguing that he might possibly be more effective. from a man who hasn't even served a full term in the senate, i wonder what his supporters must be thinking.
btd i think already addressed these issues elsewhere. without a solid issue to base his campaign around, and it's a little late to come up with one, his staying the race achieves no purpose other than to spend lots of money, get lots of attention for obama, and most importantly distract from the real urgency of cleaning up the current mess.
also, he can only run against the clinton record of success which frankly he does not need to be doing in the primary campaign since it is a huge weapon for her in the general.
there is a huge downside to him staying in, imho.

Winning states and spin don't matter anymore. (none / 0) (#15)
by Ben Masel on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:19:24 AM EST

It's all about the delegate count.

My God (none / 0) (#16)
by athyrio on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:20:14 AM EST

if Obama cannot win with all this media darling stuff on his side, then shame on him....Anyone could win....However, if he is struggling in the polls, even after he has almost been worshipped as the 2nd coming by the media, then there is a problem, and maybe thats why Karl Rove is stating in Newsweek, that the GOP is far from done and maybe surprises in store for us this year....All I can say is if Obama wins you can kiss Social Security goodbye as well as universal health care according to Krugman....

Polls (none / 0) (#17)
by Kathy on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:37:28 AM EST

are so untrustworthy, but I think the effect will be that both Clinton and Obama supporters will come out heavily if they think that it's this close. So, maybe Zogby et al are doing us a favor by making this thing neck-and-neck. In states where Clinton has a double digit lead, her supporters might decide to go to the grocery store and do chores instead of going to the polls because they think it's all wrapped up.

This is the scenario I fear: Clinton overwhelmingly wins the popular vote by, let's say, a million. Obama stays in and gets the post-Tuesday states and gets more delegates but ends up still having much less of the popular vote.

We are looking at a Gore/Bush situation all over again.

Go Giants!!! (none / 0) (#19)
by robrecht on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:45:16 AM EST

Let's put the pundits on the sidelines for a while. The blogs too.

Are you looking for permission to take the evening off?

Being from NJ, we're rooting for the Giants, of course (their stadium is in NJ), but I have no illusions about the point spread.

I'm taking the night off (none / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:57:18 AM EST

Politics is taking the night off.


Go Giants!!! (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by robrecht on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:20:29 AM EST

Qui tacet consentit.


Go Giants! (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:26:22 AM EST

: Hmmm ... seems a little tepid (none / 0) (#40)
by robrecht on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:04:06 PM EST

you deserve it (none / 0) (#25)
by Judith on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:02:15 AM EST

but you know if something happens you will be right there in it. It is your passion.


Nothing is going to happen today (none / 0) (#26)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:13:07 AM EST

Bill is on the loose in East L.A. (none / 0) (#28)
by oculus on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:15:54 AM EST

Something could happen.


Hope its good. (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by Stellaaa on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:18:29 AM EST

about the only thing (none / 0) (#33)
by athyrio on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:19:38 AM EST

that usually happens with Bill is some media outlet or blog twisting every word he says....which has recently been exposed even by Crooks and Liars....


: I read an article on Huff Post (none / 0) (#35)
by oculus on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:21:18 AM EST

last night about the press people now assigned to him, including one from CNN, and what a tough time they are having keeping up with him because there isn't a press plane.

if you say so (none / 0) (#29)
by Judith on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:16:27 AM EST

I believe it.

Enjoy!


So, are there any really good movies (none / 0) (#30)
by oculus on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:17:12 AM EST

out there?


tons!!!! (none / 0) (#32)
by Judith on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:19:21 AM EST

all my friends are "watching" the game except me - I have an errand to run that I am timing with the game - I need to drive to a mall of all evil places and I expect no traffic and an empty store so I cann run in and out.

heaven!


oculus (none / 0) (#50)
by Kathy on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 01:58:51 PM EST

"There Will Be Blood"

Citizen Kane without Rosebud.


: or Juno (none / 0) (#51)
by Judith on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:09:04 PM EST

for something sweet or Atonement for something beautiful or somebody told me I need to go see a scary movie as it will remind me of Blair Witch (which I had to throw up after...I have never lived that one down)

An interesting observation (none / 0) (#20)
by athyrio on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 10:48:53 AM EST

if Obama is struggling to win, even after all this positive spin from all the MSM, and Hillary is still ahead or competitive in most states even after she has been trashed by all the MSM, doesnt that mean that all the MSM has to do is drop their "media darling" status of Obama and make McCain their "media darling" which he has been for years anyway, and Obama is toast with a capital T....The only one that can survive a negative press and still be competitive is Hillary....So bear that in mind when you decide who can best compete.

Yes (none / 0) (#23)
by robrecht on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:00:02 AM EST

I've tried to make this point before. The Obama rules will be trumped by the McCain rules in the GE. BTW, I think Hillary won the last debate because she co-opted the unity Schtick, not with Republicans but specifically the unity of the Democratic party. They looked great together and would be a winning ticket. Some would be Obama supporters and many Clinton waiverers can more easily get behind a Clinton-Obama ticket. Such a unity ticket with a woman and an African American emphasizes the change meme.


: i guess i just haven't heard it spun (none / 0) (#41)
by english teacher on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:19:20 PM EST

the other way. why isn't anyone saying that the only thing that can stop a hillary landslide in november is barack obama?

I am friendly (none / 0) (#24)
by Judith on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:00:56 AM EST

with a yound Hispanic guy and I bumped into him last night and asked who he is voting for. He looked confused and said what do you mean - who is running? i explained about the primary and told him it was Obama and HRC. No kidding, his face lit up and he said - oh, Mrs Clinton - that lady is a lady but she knows how to fight! She knows what she wants. She has %*%# - I like her!

There were other people listening so I said I liked them both but I agreed with his observation and I would be voting for her, too.

No big deal, but I thought it was fun.

Sunday guys (none / 0) (#27)
by Stellaaa on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 11:15:39 AM EST

Watching Christ Mathews on NBC, and finally, someone said what I believe, missed the name, the guy from Telemundo. Mathews et. al, have made the Ted Kennedy brings Latino vote way bigger than it is. There is local leadership. There are local voices. Talk about racist to think they are waiting around for the fat old guy to tell them what to do.