WaPo Polls: TX Tied, Clinton Ahead In OH

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:31:26 PM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

WaPo Polls Ohio and Texas:

TEXAS

Clinton 48
Obama 47

OHIO

Clinton 50
Obama 43

The details on the flip.

The Post-ABC News polls show Clinton with solid support from white women and voters with less education and lower incomes in both Ohio and Texas. She holds a big lead among Hispanics in Texas. Obama has large advantages among independents, African Americans and better-educated voters in both states.

Clinton advisers have expressed optimism about her prospects in the two contests, but the new polls suggest the momentum Obama achieved in his string of victories has turned both into true battlegrounds. Clinton's husband, former President Bill Clinton, said earlier this week that she must win Texas and Ohio to keep her candidacy viable.

It appears that the demographics are holding form, but Clinton's leads may have narrowed. We do not know as WaPo does not provide its expected turnouts.

< Times' Keller Defends McCain "Story" | A Columist Supporting Obama Expresses Doubts >

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WaPo Polls: TX Tied, Clinton Ahead In OH | 48 comments (48 topical)

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You are singlehandedly taking care (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:41:08 PM EST

of that deficit.

: TX IS KARL ROVE'S PLAYGROUND (none / 0) (#64)
by john5750 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:56:39 PM EST

Republican Party always wanted Obama to be the nominee; flushed his coffers with cash; saw him as easier Democrat to defeat.
Republican Party activists have been organized by the GOP to throw their weight behind Barack Obama, the Democratic rival of frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
Early in Obama's campaign, top Republican fundraisers flushed his coffers with cash, something the deep pockets hadn't done for any candidate in their own party.
http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html

oooo (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by andgarden on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:48:09 PM EST

I know what you mean by that too. . .

Obama didn't see any difference (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by Shawn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:57:47 PM EST

when he was running against John Edwards.

I am deleting all the campaign finance nonsense (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:20:22 PM EST

It is utter nonsense and I have no patience for bringing it here.

It will all be deleted.

I can not stomach the spread of the dishonesty about this.

I can't believe (none / 0) (#42)
by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:27:04 PM EST

That you deleted two entire conversational threads!

Why are you doing this? It doesn't reflect well upon your site that you would do such a thing.


I just explained why (none / 0) (#43)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:29:38 PM EST

These are not conversations. These are opportunities to spread dishonest smears.

You can all discuss how evil Hillary is on this at you know where.

It does not speak well of you and others that you want to spread the lies that have been written about this.

I will not countenance it. Perhaps Jeralyn will let you in her thread. I won't in mine.


I don't (none / 0) (#46)
by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:33:06 PM EST

think that Hillary is evil. Not at all. I don't understand why you would say that.

When you asked, I told you the truth: that if she would ask the 527's to stop, the same way Obama did, I wouldn't blame her for what they did.

I might add that you participated in these conversations. It wasn't just a bunch of trolls who came in and yakked it up with each other. Why would you delete your own comments? They weren't bad comments.


Issue is closed (none / 0) (#47)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:34:22 PM EST

See if Jeralyn lets you write about it. I will not in my thread.


Yaknow what? (none / 0) (#51)
by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:39:42 PM EST

This is the only Dem site I've ever been to where the authors attempt to have such dictatorial control over the content of the comments. Why is this the policy? If people's opinions are without merit, it will be proven in the fullness of time.


Not open for discussion (none / 0) (#53)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:46:48 PM EST

If you do not like it, you can go elsewhere.


Big Tent is Right (none / 0) (#57)
by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:51:06 PM EST

It's his blog and he has the right to delete anything he doesn't like. I just posted some general election head-to-head numbers because I thought this was about polls, but I was clearly wrong and should have known better. It's about one poll in particular, not a jumping off point for a discussion of other polls.

Enjoy the blog, but remember, it's not yours. I'm slowly learning my place and enjoying myself more because of it.


It is is not about polls (none / 0) (#59)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:53:42 PM EST

It is about WaPo's TEXAS and OHIO polls.

If you have OTHER TEXAS and OHIO polls to discuss, you are more than welcome.

It is pretty obvious that your comment was off topic.


I was agreeing that it was off topic... (none / 0) (#61)
by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:54:58 PM EST

...and was glad that it was deleted. Sheesh.


: My apologies then (none / 0) (#63)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:56:37 PM EST

Actually... (none / 0) (#60)
by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:53:54 PM EST

...there are very few posts right now about the WP poll.


Indeed (none / 0) (#62)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:55:57 PM EST

Most are about a discussion of deletions of comments.

You have anything on topic to add?


It might be nice... (none / 0) (#65)
by sar75 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:58:01 PM EST

...if we could use some threads as a jumping off point to talk about related things - like other polls? Maybe not, just a thought - please don't yell at me for suggesting it.


: Open Threads (none / 0) (#67)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:04:20 PM EST

Frankly, we keep tight reins on it to avoid fights.

: actually, I think other polls (none / 0) (#68)
by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:11:22 PM EST

are an appropriate topic if they are close in time and of the same subject.

Our comment policy is (none / 0) (#55)
by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:49:03 PM EST

here.

Commenting is a privilege, not a right. It's my site and I make the rules. You can start your own blog if you disagree.

All points of view are welcome but commenters need to stay on topic unless it's an open thread. We decide what to write about. It's not a free-for-all.


I didn't see them (none / 0) (#56)
by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:51:05 PM EST

I'm assuming they had nothing to do with the topic of your post.


: They had nothing to do with my post (none / 0) (#58)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:52:22 PM EST

I deleted all my comments as well.
I see red when discussing the phony campaign finance issues and dishonesty is the order of the day in those discussions.

Her leads with her constituencies... (none / 0) (#1)
by jor on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:34:48 PM EST

.. have been continually getting smaller and smaller with every election throughout february. If things go at the same rate they have been, she is already a goner come March 4th.

Reading between the lines (none / 0) (#5)
by Shawn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:44:55 PM EST

The Post-ABC News polls show Clinton with solid support from white women and voters with less education and lower incomes in both Ohio and Texas. She holds a big lead among Hispanics in Texas. Obama has large advantages among independents, African Americans and better-educated voters in both states.

If all of this is the case, their turnout model must really favor Obama.

: Not their turnout model; Texas turnout model (none / 0) (#75)
by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:49:00 PM EST

definitely favors Obama. Earlier posts in earlier threads explained that delegates are awarded based on turnout last time, and Latino turnout was low -- plus there is the incredibly bad redistricting of Texas by the Republican legislature. See if you can google up a map; I saw it a few years ago and was just amazed at what they got away with there.

Key finding: (none / 0) (#16)
by PlayInPeoria on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:58:01 PM EST

"A quarter in Texas, and a third in Ohio, say they could change their minds or are undecided."

It is weird that when asked who is the strongest leader ......

Ohio
Hillary 53
Obama 36

Texas
Hillary 51
Obama 40

Survey

They don't want a leader, they just want (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by Teresa on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:01:15 PM EST

to feel good? Be part of the crowd? Maybe we should just text in our votes after American Idol goes off.


The Primaries (none / 0) (#38)
by MKS on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:21:40 PM EST

need to end soon...Hillary has had every chance to win this...but her campaign has blown it....

If this goes to June, patronizing comments like Obama supporters just want to feel good will seem quaint.....


: Voters have not had every chance (none / 0) (#72)
by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:44:36 PM EST

yet, so please learn deferred gratification.

Some want "electability" most (none / 0) (#71)
by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:43:47 PM EST

such as BTD. He has explained it.


it shows an appalling lack of understanding (none / 0) (#34)
by Kathy on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:17:41 PM EST

We are at war. Soldiers are dying. Torture is being done in our name. American citizens are being spied on. Our constitutional rights are eroding. We need a strong leader to get us out of this, someone who will not be pushed around--someone who understands what is truly at stake here.

I don't need someone in the White House who makes me feel good about myself. I need someone who makes me feel good about America.


That's Obama (none / 0) (#40)
by MKS on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:23:16 PM EST

Obama makes people feel good about America...and he has greater ability to get out of Iraq than Hillary....Hillary's plan has "mission creep" written all over it...


: and (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by Turkana on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:32:39 PM EST

obama keeps the $1.3 billion a year (permanent base) embassy. anyone who thinks he's better on iraq than hillary is deluded. oh yeah- he gave a pretty speech. in 2002.

: He does not make me feel good (5.00 / 1) (#73)
by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:46:02 PM EST

so therefore, with Kathy and me vs. you, Obama loses. Or perhaps we could move beyond the anecdotal and discuss the polls?

: According to the survey (none / 0) (#69)
by PlayInPeoria on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:15:54 PM EST

Who do you trust to handle the War in Iraq
Ohio
Clinton 45
Obama 39
Texas
Clinton 43
Obama 44
National
Clinton 48
Obama 40
Have you read thesurvey we are talking about? The link is above.

Strong leader numbers (none / 0) (#41)
by MKS on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:26:26 PM EST

mean that all Obama has to do in the debate tonight is look Hillary's equal--not get blown off the stage....A draw means he improves his stature....


: Spin (none / 0) (#74)
by PlayInPeoria on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:46:24 PM EST

like a top!!

Dee Dee Meyers refers to HRC's (none / 0) (#18)
by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:58:41 PM EST

presidential bid in the past tense. See Huffington Post, Sam Stein.

I'm interested to see (none / 0) (#22)
by andgarden on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:00:58 PM EST

hat the polling looks like tomorrow. Someone is likely to get a bounce.

: Well, Obama's been photographed (none / 0) (#27)
by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:03:44 PM EST

wearing a Stetson, so I'm thinking he'll probably win TX.

The knives are starting to come out now (none / 0) (#29)
by blogtopus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:08:17 PM EST

Have you folks been seeing some of the sniping the pundits are making at Obama now? Of course you have, TL just posted a sample below.

This will begin to weed the true believers from the leaners, I think. Probably won't be enough though.

: Or the leaners will ffeel (none / 0) (#44)
by oculus on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:29:58 PM EST

sympathy for Obama.

Something to look for (none / 0) (#49)
by jen on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:37:07 PM EST

IF Obama wins the nomination, in theory, he should win the GE in an unprecedented landslide. If all the Republics and Indys who came out to support him stick with him in the GE, we're going to see an election with historical results.

BTW, I'm absolutely convinced we won't see this, and expect him to go down in flames against McCain. But that's just me... I really, really hope I'm wrong.

: From what I see in Wisconsin returns (none / 0) (#70)
by Cream City on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:42:02 PM EST

the conclusion is not as cataclysymic, and the closest state in 2004 may be more Dem this time -- but it would be more Dem either way, because of Bush. The state would no way be so much for Obama; that clearly was the massive crossover vote. (See jsonline.com today for more analysis; see bylines Borowski and, for Waukesha County, Walker.)

This thread is about the WaPO poll (none / 0) (#50)
by Jeralyn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:38:21 PM EST

Big Tent is right. Stay on topic.

Internals (none / 0) (#52)
by Shawn on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:40:57 PM EST

From TalkLeft's sidebar:

Six in 10 Hispanic voters and nearly as many white women in Texas say they back Clinton, similar to her national edge so far with those groups, who have been crucial to her. Three-quarters of blacks support Obama, slightly lower than usual, and he leads by 10 percentage points among white men. He is seen as more electable, she as the stronger leader. Unlike most states, health care trumps the economy as Texas Democratic voters' top concern, and Clinton has a 17-point edge over him for handling the issue. A quarter say they still may switch their support.

Hard to see the "erosion" in her base from these numbers. Again, 48/47 must indicate an Obama-friendly turnout model.

trend lines for Texas polls (none / 0) (#66)
by A DC Wonk on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:03:51 PM EST

which incorporate todays polls, are here at Pollster.