More Electoral Vote Predictions

Markos of Daily Kos gives his electoral vote predictions. He thinks Obama will win 390 to 148.

It's time for me to give my prediction: Obama either wins 383 to 155 or 356 to 182. My maps are below:


Do you think the race will be closer? Which states did I call incorrectly?

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    I'm still at 381 (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:36:01 PM EST
    Kerry states + Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, Montana, Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina. SUSA finally likes Obama for FL, which makes me feel good.

    I gave him 382....he wins the Omaha NE CD (none / 0) (#14)
    by steviez314 on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 04:47:20 AM EST
    thanks to Warren Buffett.

    Switch Montana and Indiana (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by SamJohnson on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 02:03:18 AM EST
    Not SC unless Graham goes down. That would be sweet but South Carolina is redder than Texas

    Ding, ding, ding! (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by robrecht on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 06:49:00 AM EST
    We have a winner!

    Thank You (none / 0) (#21)
    by SamJohnson on Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 11:28:31 PM EST
    On behalf of the progressive agenda for which Obama was elected I accept this award, and like Paul Krugman believe this should lead to a "new New Deal". That's what I voted for!

    Georgia and South Carolina are hard to believe (none / 0) (#2)
    by robrecht on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:47:33 PM EST
    Heck, if you're going to be that optimistic, why not Missouri?

    I keep my sights much lower so as not to be disappointed.  I noticed that NPR/Newshour gave all 5 of their remaining toss-ups to McCain tonight, so Obama with 291.

    I would be thrilled with 338, can't even imagine how happy I'd be with Kos' 390.  Yes, it could happen, but I won't let myself hope that much.

    GA within reach (none / 0) (#8)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:14:55 AM EST
    2 million early ballots, 34% black.

    4% margin for McSame in latest polls.

    He can never get up the hill banked with the early votes.

    GA is going blue today.


    I agree with Kos almost. (none / 0) (#11)
    by SamJohnson on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 02:00:23 AM EST
    Georgia and NC go blue. They have the people and the enthusiasm. Not MO. But AZ will be very close. I'm not counting on KY to have an epiphany or anything, but I want Mitch to get trounced anyway. Very badly.

    Hahahaha, (none / 0) (#3)
    by BrassTacks on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:48:29 PM EST
    That would be fun!  But not a chance that SC, NC, MT, and GA will go for Obama.  I'm not sure we'll win Florida either, but that's ok, as long as we win.  

    NC going blue (none / 0) (#5)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 12:56:37 AM EST
    Obama 48%, McSame 46% in NC. Jeralyn is right about that.

    I think that NC will go Blue, but by a very small (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by DeborahNC on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 03:10:56 AM EST
    margin--maybe by.5%. I think that Kay Hagen will unseat Dole by winning a great Dole by a greater percentage than Obama will win over McCain. But a win is a win, no matter how small.

    It's hard to imagine SC and Georgia going blue, but I guess it's possible.

    It'll soon be time to go to the polls if we haven't voted. The candidates have done an immense amount of work, but our job is simpler, Just walk, ride, or take a car to the polls and vote.

    Happy Election Day!


    Blue NC (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by WS on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 07:41:46 AM EST
    Yeah, I think NC will go blue and so will FL and OH.  I want Missouri to go blue.    

    MT will go Blue (none / 0) (#19)
    by Socraticsilence on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 12:24:46 PM EST
    Yes we can! We could have done a better job with on campus registrations, but we have 2 Dem Senators and a Dem Governor we're purple buddy!

    South Carolina? (none / 0) (#4)
    by heineken1717 on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 12:22:43 AM EST
    Jeralyn, was the second map a joke?

    I don't think so (none / 0) (#6)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:04:56 AM EST
    Latest poll of polls result at electoral-vote, if the less than 5% states go for Obama, AZ, FL, GA, IN, MO, NC, ND, MT. Remember that in many of these states, Obama's GOTV (of which there has never been an equal) has been banking votes for weeks, with 2x and 3x leads. Do the math at 30% to 50% early voting (we are canvassing nearly empty precincts here in Albuquerque) and you will quickly see McCain CANNOT catch up.

    I still think that SC was a typo.


    My map (none / 0) (#7)
    by NMvoiceofreason on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:08:12 AM EST
    Turn AZ, FL, GA, IN, MO, NC, ND, MT blue.

    Turn SC red.

    406 EV's

    Obama 270 (none / 0) (#9)
    by Ellis on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:41:14 AM EST
    Everything else is just gravy.

    Montana? (none / 0) (#10)
    by Ellis on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 01:49:02 AM EST
    That seems a real stretch.

    Secessionists for Obama? (none / 0) (#15)
    by Zeno on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 07:23:57 AM EST
    You can't be serious about South Carolina. It would be the shocker of the night if SC were to vote Democratic. Georgia? Maybe. South Carolina? Uh uh.

    Maybe your first map (none / 0) (#17)
    by blueaura on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 10:17:57 AM EST
    will be accurate, but not your second. SC is solid McCain. He's ~10 points ahead in the polls there.

    I think McCain will win NC, GA and FL. Obama is slightly ahead in the FL polls, but if there is one place I don't believe the polls, it's Florida. I don't trust Florida to deliver. It would be nice if Obama won it, but I my prediction is that it will be close, but go to McCain in the end.

    I also don't really see Montana going our way.

    what a grand day! (none / 0) (#18)
    by halstoon on Tue Nov 04, 2008 at 12:04:20 PM EST
    back in february when obama won ga in the primary, i predicted it would go blue, so i'm sticking with it, even though back then i was laughed at. nice to know i wasn't so far off after all....