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A Prediction Report: Obama 339 Electoral Votes, McCain 199

William Arnone, author of previous reports on the key states in the primaries and the electoral vote, has prepared his final assessment of who is likely to carry each state in Tuesday's Presidential election. I am publishing the report with his permission.

His summary:

The final assessment shows that the Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware will win 27 states (including the District of Columbia) and part of one state (Nebraska) with 339 electoral votes.

The Republican Presidential ticket of Senator John McCain of Arizona and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska will win 23 states and parts of one state (Nebraska) with 199 electoral votes. The number of electoral votes needed to win is 270.

More...

This final assessment represents a shift of two states (Florida and Ohio) and part of one state (Nebraska) for a total of 48 electoral votes from the Republican ticket to the Democratic ticket since the last October assessment. A detailed analysis of the shifts in these two states and one Congressional District is included.

Since the initial assessment was conducted in August, which showed that Senator McCain would win 30 states with 291 electoral votes to Senator Obama's 21 states (including the District of Columbia) with 247 electoral votes if the election had been held then, there has been a dramatic shift of six states (Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia) and one Congressional District (Nebraska's 2nd CD) totaling 92 electoral votes from the Republican to the Democratic Presidential ticket.

With hours to go before Election Day, the likelihood of the results changing depends on the possibility of one or more new intervening variables. Among them are:

  • A domestic or international incident that disrupts voting or changes the focus of voters from the economy to national security.
  • A new eleventh-hour revelation about one or more of the Presidential or Vice Presidential candidates.
  • "keep-down-the-vote" effort in key states, including new-voter registration purges and activities designed to discourage turnout or challenge the voting results. There is already evidence of such destabilizing activity in six states (Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia). Should these six states with 107 electoral votes go Republican, then the result would be a 307-231 McCain-Palin triumph.

Do Arnone's predictions match your's?

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  • Display: Sort:
    OK, let me be outlandish (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:09:45 PM EST
    I think Obama sweeps with 381 Electoral Votes. He wins in Montana, North Dakota, and Indiana, but not Georgia. The hardest calls are Missouri and North Carolina, but I give both to Obama.

    I'm probably wrong, but let me be optimistic for once!

    Knock yourself out (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by ruffian on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:23:31 PM EST
    I am so glad to have 0 more nights of polls and predictions.


    Parent
    That is outlandish ... (none / 0) (#6)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:24:51 PM EST
    I think Obama's ceiling is 375.

    Seems the middle ground most people are predicting is 338.  

    I'm going with 306 because I think McCain will win FL, and pull out a squeaker in NV.

    PV will be about 6% on election night, but when all the votes are counted on Wednesday it will be closer to 4-5%.

    Dems will pick up 7 Senates seats, and 26 house seats.

    Parent

    I think there aren't enough votes left (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:27:30 PM EST
    in Nevada for McCain to win there. Florida, OTOH, I'm always wary about. I'd say Obama has a 60% shot of winning there. Likewise Ohio.

    North Carolina and Indiana are, it seems to me, 50/50.

    Parent

    I think very well tooled ... (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:35:17 PM EST
    GOP GOTV in NV will pull it out in a squeaker.  And I mean SQUEAKER.  Under 5,000.

    Parent
    PPP sez (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:39:47 PM EST
    that with 71% having already voted, Obama is ahead 57/43. That's devilishly hard to overcome, unless the GOP produces voters from somewhere that no one is expecting.

    Parent
    I think it's just as likely ... (none / 0) (#17)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:46:33 PM EST
    that they've run out of Obama votes.

    But it's just a prediction.  We'll know tomorrow.

    He'll probably get the 338 that everyone else is predicting and we'll both be wrong.

    Parent

    I never thought that the Democrat (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by andgarden on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:49:11 PM EST
    would have so many votes banked before election day.

    Keeping Obama infrastructure in place for 2010 could reap immense dividends.

    Parent

    Is that an exit poll? (none / 0) (#25)
    by ruffian on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 08:16:16 PM EST
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