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Breaking: Zogby A Crock

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Other Politics
Posted on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:36:11 AM EST
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My title is ironic and muted because J does not want me calling people charlatans in the titles. Poblano "breaks" the news that Zogby is a charlatan:

To my mind, this [Zogby] survey meets the definition of a "push poll", which the Random House Dictionary defines as "a seemingly unbiased telephone survey that is actually conducted by supporters of a particular candidate and disseminates negative information about an opponent."

Not Zogby!!! I am shocked.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    Breaking: Zogby A Crock | 26 comments (26 topical)

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    Grass is green. (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by oldpro on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:59:06 AM EST
    Sky is blue.

    Well, to be honest (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:02:40 PM EST
    Since polling is like political magic to some of us, I always thought he was pretty good until I met you.  It was his name though, he as the Great Zogby :)

    BTD is not a pollster (none / 0) (#6)
    by Pepe on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:25:38 PM EST


    Parent
    Don't have to be a pollster (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by CST on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:29:35 PM EST
    To be able to read and comment on them.

    In fact, it's probably better to be an "independent" observer when calling people crocks :)

    Parent

    I know a lot about it though (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:50:40 PM EST
    Seriously.

    Parent
    Didn't suggest (none / 0) (#17)
    by Pepe on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:14:23 PM EST
    that you didn't.

    A lot of us know a lot about polls. Enough to know that you can't always count on all of them such as Gallup and many others this year.

    Parent

    Not to credential you (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:22:38 PM EST
    But in my profession, surveys are critical.

    Parent
    Not sure what you (none / 0) (#26)
    by Pepe on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 06:51:58 PM EST
    exactly mean by that. I take it you are talking about being an attorney. Well whoopee, do you think lawyers are the only ones who use surveys? Not hardly.

    But speaking of surveys, you said: "surveys are critical".

    I think you meant to say accurate surveys are critical.

    Oh and don't worry about credentialing me. I really don't think you can.

    Parent

    Zogby has been telling clients (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:37:59 AM EST
    what they want to hear since forever.

    "Charlatan" is right.

    Isn't it a bit ironic (none / 0) (#5)
    by Pepe on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:24:29 PM EST
    for Pablano to be pointing out that others who deal in polls are "supporters of a particular candidate"?

    And Poblano wasn't? Funny. Real funny.

    Parent

    He's not a pollster (none / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:51:10 PM EST


    Parent
    I know (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Pepe on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:11:10 PM EST
    I said "others who deal in polls".

    Meaning Poblano or RCP or others who compile poll information sometimes have a bias in what they compile that often has a predetermined result to reflect their biases by virtue of the polls they chose to include.

    Poblano was a self-professed Obama supporter so I found it ironic what he said.

    Parent

    Why can't you use the word (none / 0) (#2)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 11:55:09 AM EST
    "Charlatan" in titles?

    Setting A Good Example (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by squeaky on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:38:13 PM EST
    Maybe?

    Name-calling, personal attacks and insults......will not be tolerated...

    I know that it is hard to believe that calling Zogby a charlatan is name calling...... but...

    Parent

    Zogby (none / 0) (#9)
    by Daniel on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:39:23 PM EST
    If one has followed the last many years of polling, I think you find that the ODD poll is always Zogby. Their numbers rarely correspond to other poll numbers and it makes you wonder about the accuracy of his or any polls. His poll is usually off by several points and not even close to what turns out to be the case.

    What really bothers me about Zogby (none / 0) (#10)
    by MKS on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:43:23 PM EST
    is that his polls have huge swings....some polls do that too....but Zobgy's "swings" seem like calculated adjustments to match conventional wisdom....or to make a point(?)

    Parent
    Would other pollsters (none / 0) (#11)
    by Steve M on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 12:49:07 PM EST
    conduct this particular poll if a client offered to pay for it?

    My guess is that many would not, in order to protect the brand.  But I could be wrong.

    Zogby does "message testing" (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by andgarden on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:00:32 PM EST
    in a clumsy way. Some stuff on that, but not Zogby, here.

    Parent
    I've done at least one "message test" (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Fabian on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:13:52 PM EST
    poll.

    In my experience, they are done early in a campaign, at least weeks or even months before the actual election.  They are trying to find which issue best resonated with voters.  In this case it was the mayoral race and police and the schools were being tested.  (public safety & public education) They asked for reaction on identical messages on both the incumbent and the challenger.  This is what you do before you produce ads.

    (Ironically, the mayor actually has nothing to do with the schools - there's a state board and an elected local board, but the mayor officially has no influence on the public schools.  I did point this out.)

    Parent

    Yup (none / 0) (#18)
    by andgarden on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:19:11 PM EST
    A genuine and competent message testing poll can cost $20k. Most campaigns think it's well-worth the price given when they'll end up spending on ads.

    But who message tests just after an election? Someone gearing up to produce the Obama Chronicles, perhaps?

    Parent

    It's not a message test (none / 0) (#20)
    by Steve M on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:33:29 PM EST
    It's a list of carefully worded questions designed to produce a specific bottom-line result.  Clearly they don't care how many people actually know that Joe Biden was accused of plagiarism.

    I recall a similar one a couple years back that the 9/11 Truthers paid for in order to pretend that their movement had a great deal of popular support.  My impression is that reputable pollsters are in the business of framing neutral questions, rather than simply parroting whatever misleading questions their clients choose to create.

    Parent

    Right, that's why I called it (none / 0) (#21)
    by andgarden on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:35:32 PM EST
    an incompetent message testing poll.

    I've gotten Zogby Internet polls like this before commissioned for, you know, Newsmax. He's a hack.

    Parent

    I don't get it (none / 0) (#23)
    by Steve M on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:43:31 PM EST
    Are you contending that the purpose of the poll was to test messages?  Because it seems obvious to me that the right-wing radio host who paid for the poll did so not in order to test messages, but to prove a political point that people who voted for Obama were ignorant of certain so-called "truths" about him.  I don't see where the "incomptence" comes in, it's simply not a message-testing poll in my book.

    Parent
    Ok, well, call it whatever you want (none / 0) (#24)
    by andgarden on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:46:20 PM EST
    But it's closer to a message test than a push poll, which is traditionally sent out to everyone.

    Coming this far out from any potential election, i'd just call it junk research with an agenda.

    Parent

    I agree (none / 0) (#25)
    by Steve M on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:53:48 PM EST
    that it is not a push poll, because the agenda is not to educate the people who get polled.  The agenda is to be able to go on the radio and say "look how stupid Barack Obama supporters are."

    Parent
    A guess (none / 0) (#22)
    by Fabian on Tue Nov 18, 2008 at 01:38:46 PM EST
    The GOP looking for chinks in the armor?

    Unlike some (not here of course) I don't see the GOP either playing the nice bipartisans or laying down to die.  They'll be Serious and Concerned and looking for a way to score points with their Big Money patrons.  Gotta keep those bills paid!

    Parent

    Breaking: Zogby A Crock | 26 comments (26 topical)

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