WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama/Biden Widen Lead

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 05:43:45 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, 2008 (all tags)

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The new Wall St. Journal/NBC poll has Barack Obama and Joe Biden ahead of McCain/Palin by 49% to 43%.

This is a pretty astonishing drop for McCain:

Sen. McCain's support in rural areas and small towns, where he led by 21 points after his convention, has steadily dropped and he now has just a three-point edge.

As for Palin:

Half of all voters still say she is not qualified to be president if the need were to arise; just 41% say she is.

By contrast, Sen. Biden saw his numbers shoot up, with three out of four voters saying he is qualified to take over if need be -- up 10 percentage points from two weeks ago. Even 62% percent of McCain voters think he's qualified for the top job.

More...

I'm surprised only half of those polled find her unqualified. I have yet to speak to a single person who thinks otherwise.

As for the debates:

By a 21 point margin, 50%-29%, voters said the Democrats had the debate edge over rival Republican running mates John McCain and Sarah Palin, while 10% of respondents said the two tickets were equally as good and 4% said neither was good.

The economy is voters' biggest issue and they favor Obama. But, the poll article warns, Obama is not home free on personal issues, which are of concern to some voters.

The poll suggests that the first African-American to win a major party nomination could be vulnerable to race-based attacks tying him to unpopular black figures such as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, his former pastor and Al Sharpton, an outspoken and controversial figure.

Thirty-five percent of all voters -- and 40% of white voters -- said those connections bother them. This is absent any candidate or party pressing hard on those themes, something Republicans have hinted they may start to raise more aggressively in the campaign's closing days.

Update: A national CNN poll out today has similar findings. Obama/Biden lead McCain/Palin 53 to 45%.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country's financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a drop in the public's perception of McCain's running mate could be contributing to Obama's gains.
Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.
"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.

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WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama/Biden Widen Lead | 37 comments (37 topical)

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We will see (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by patriotgames on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 05:49:10 PM EST

after the Nov. 5th Nationwide Poll. I Seriously doubt there will be that much of a lead ... (if ANY)

Why? (5.00 / 0) (#2)
by oculus on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 05:50:31 PM EST

Do you entirely trust the polls (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by Cream City on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:18:54 PM EST

still using registered voters, not likely voters? And do you trust their models, based on the past and guesses about since then, in an unprecedented and historic election, etc.?

I trust that the aggregate of polls supports a sizeable upswing to the Dem ticket. And I even trust that most voters' votes will count in most states. But that's as much as I trust. Put that all together, and the upswing probably is sufficient to counter what will be done to the rest of the votes.


Didnt... (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by Thanin on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:39:06 PM EST

BTD post that even now likely voters are giving an 8% boost?


Sure, those I trust more (5.00 / 1) (#16)
by Cream City on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:50:49 PM EST

than the many given equal weight here that I don't. And as I said, the aggregate is what is worthwhile -- so why reply about one poll?

And it's just my opinion (if educated a bit by coursework and some experience with this stuff -- the main message I got being that flawed design produces flawed results).

Others are welcome to see what they see in one poll, many polls, whatever. The thread was about why to exercise, as you say elsewhere, caution.


: Fair enough (5.00 / 2) (#17)
by Thanin on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:53:52 PM EST

Some pollster called... (none / 0) (#10)
by kredwyn on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:21:55 PM EST

but I wasn't here. I only found out about it by the caller ID thingy.


: There's that, too -- I get pollster calls (5.00 / 1) (#20)
by Cream City on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 07:01:18 PM EST

in a popular zip code in the closest state last time, although I am delighted to see that my vote or lack of it won't matter. . . . Anyway, as I wrote here last week after the last pollster call, the questions and ranking system were so poorly done that it -- one of the polls, I think, cited here since as credible -- gives me doubts about all of them. The results are stated as if so evident, but several questions simply couldn't be answered by me as they were stated, with the simple, dichotomous choices given, etc.

I only trust Wonkette (none / 0) (#11)
by oculus on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:26:46 PM EST

<snk>.


srsly? (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by Faust on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:00:33 PM EST

: All the kiddies like to say... (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by blogtopus on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:57:44 PM EST

Are you Cereal? Yup, that should be Obama's new campaign against McCain.
McCain: Is he Cereal? (followed by image of Capt. Crunch at his craziest).
Palin could be the Cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs bird.
On a serious note, I like seeing these kinds of posts, it makes my heart beat a little more slowly, but after the previous elections, I'll believe it when I see the concession speech from McCain.

Why do the polls say that 41% (none / 0) (#22)
by litigatormom on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 07:16:30 PM EST

think that Palin is qualified?

They think the poll is about Michael Palin.


: Michael Palin (none / 0) (#37)
by patriotgames on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:36:52 AM EST

is probably more qualified that all FOUR of them put together.

Tonight (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Steve M on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 05:55:49 PM EST

I nominate "Desperado" for the Open Thread video.

either that or (5.00 / 2) (#7)
by Jeralyn on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:04:33 PM EST

Running on Empty.


: Everybody Loves Me Baby. . . (none / 0) (#27)
by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 08:51:09 PM EST

What's The Matter With You.
I always thought the song was about American foreign policy, but now I understand it's specifically about Bush, although it predates his presidency by 35 years.
Here's Don McLean singing it (recent recording, sound not so hot).
And someone had the same idea as me, because here's the original, better version used as the soundtrack to a video commentary on Bush.

great idea (none / 0) (#4)
by Jeralyn on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 05:56:35 PM EST

thanks!


30% still think BUSH is qualified. (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by steviez314 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:01:14 PM EST

So not too suprised with 41% thinking Palin is.

: Great point (none / 0) (#12)
by barryluda on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:31:01 PM EST

: I think that that the 30% (none / 0) (#14)
by white n az on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:35:13 PM EST

number has been slowly eroding and it's more like 26-27% these days...probably some of these Bush devotees are alarmed at what's happened to their portfolio's and losing confidence too.

In bed with Obamat.The CNN sex tapes (2.33 / 3) (#32)
by LeftTurnClyde on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:52:19 PM EST

Hmmm........Just like Obama, CNN can't take citicism about the way the manage their business.

Get a clue CNN. Or should I amass an army of foreign investors to buy up 49% of your precious company, and then send it to hell and back?

We the people are NOT dummies. You want to know the real reason wall street is a lame duck at the moment? It's because investors like ME have had enough of American 'fatcats" rigging stock prices and elections.

You don't need to know how much money I've pulled out of your big board, but rest assured, it will not be going back in until I see a reason to either help your economic woes, or use them to my advantage and take more money out of your economy to put into my own countries economy.

It's a two way street......stop trying to drive the same way on in both lanes jerks, or the rececion WILL be a depresion for you, and it will all be because people like CNN couldn't keep it real.

Barrack "dishonest" Obama (1.00 / 2) (#29)
by LeftTurnClyde on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:34:20 PM EST

Is CNN not able to provide a full and unbiased coverage of this election? Is CNN contributing money to the Obama campaign?

I want to know why the real issues are not being discussed here, like why it was OK for comments such as McCain/Palin have made over the weekend to be made by the Clinton primary candidate campaign, but not by McCain/Palin in the Federal election?

Obama has no experience when it comes to important make or break issues. He sides with the money on all his votes. And he has no fear in putting the knife into the backs of those who claim to have supported his early career by publicly disowning them or their actions.

In Australia, if you hang out with a criminal, you can be charged as being an accomplice or an accesory before or after the fact even if your knowledge of any illegal activity was limited due to the fact that your actions could have helped to cover up evidence or provide profit for ciminals. I think you have similar laws.......so why is it that Obama is not guilty of treason by association?

To be perfectly honest, I have no faith in the media, and as a result, I see the future of this economic crisis becoming far worse because of the lack of real journalism. Who's side are you on CNN?

I don't care what you report, as long as its the truth, and you keep your political views to yourself. I know that you are playing on the hearts of the real americans who matter, and are trying to move them to favour your ideal result. How about you just report the news, and leave the politics for the people to decide on....like they are supposed to.

: heh, the trolls are out in force today. (5.00 / 1) (#31)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:42:30 PM EST

I can smell the fear.

: but (none / 0) (#34)
by connecticut yankee on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:34:13 PM EST

Why do terrorists like you hate america?

: What are you suggesting? (none / 0) (#36)
by Socraticsilence on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:55:28 PM EST

That John McCain should go to jail for his close relationship to Mobsters (such as his father in law) and convicted fixers (see his intervention on behalf of Keating) or that his multiple appearances on extremist media hosted by convicted felon G. Gordon Liddy are evidence of malfesance on McCain's part? Because if that's what you're doing I think that might be going to far.

New Fox/Ras State Polls (none / 0) (#8)
by fuzzyone on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:14:00 PM EST

via pollster

Colorado 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 51, McCain 45, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 1

Florida 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 52, McCain 45, Nader 1, Barr 0, McKinney 0

Missouri 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 50, McCain 47, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 0

Ohio 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
McCain 48, Obama 47, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 0

Virginia 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 50, McCain 48, Barr 1, Nader 0, McKinney 0

It's getting very hard to see a map that works for McCain, especially given the fact that he can't have all that much money left for the stretch run and the superior, by all accounts I've seen, Obama ground game.

Indeed (none / 0) (#18)
by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:54:26 PM EST

Furthermore, I think Obama's numbers are understated here in Virginia and Ohio.


: Never thought I would say this, (none / 0) (#33)
by Amiss on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:31:02 PM EST

but as a lifelong Floridian, I think they are understated as well here, now what happens to the votes on election day is another story for another day.

I actually know people (none / 0) (#13)
by white n az on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 06:33:45 PM EST

who think Sarah Palin IS the reason to vote for McCain/Palin...they definitely exist.

I think it is a testament to the tone deafness of the McCain campaign to ratchet up the character attacks as the economy continues to drive people's fears. It becomes evidently clearer why they are tanking in the polls and the notion that the character attacks will stop the McCain slide celebrates the clueless campaign that Schmidt and Davis are helping him run. He will be forever disgraced by this campaign.

Rest assured that we will see the ugliness of this campaign tack tomorrow night and McCain will be finished.

Jeeze.... (none / 0) (#23)
by Radiowalla on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 07:25:31 PM EST

who 'ya hanging out with? ;-)


or my boss (none / 0) (#28)
by indy in sc on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:09:53 PM EST

who today told me that he's not voting for McCain--he's voting for Palin. I continue to debate him on this because he is an otherwise rational person that is part of the "base" that was seriously considering sitting out this election because of his dislike of McCain but became "energized" by the Palin pick.


: America can be a scary, scary place (none / 0) (#39)
by of1000Kings on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 05:55:27 PM EST

sometimes...
I fear Palin and her supporters the way that most white people fear North St Louis...

The real . . . (none / 0) (#21)
by Doc Rock on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 07:09:32 PM EST

. . . character assassination campaign will begin soon, probably after Tuesday's debate. The McPalin artillery is about to come out. Send up the barrage balloons!

: You could always call in an airstrike. (none / 0) (#26)
by steviez314 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 07:52:40 PM EST

"Just" 41% think Palin is qualified? (none / 0) (#30)
by bluejane on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:40:32 PM EST

Half of all voters still say she is not qualified to be president if the need were to arise; just 41% say she is. [Jeralyn's post of WSJ/NBC poll]

Just 41%? That makes it sound diminutive yet 41% is a huge number of people! That's a frightening number of people. Who are these people? These are what frighten me about McCain and Palin -- the people who like them. P is only one person but 41% of likely voters is millions of apparent wackos! And, as Jeralyn pointed out, how come only half of respondents (that's where the "just" belongs, "just half") say Palin is unqualified?

Impossible question dept: When are we going to grapple with the reality that we have two Americas, not just in terms of income/class as Edwards said but in terms of ignorance and non-ignorance (or however the schism can be phrased)? Fundamentalist prophesy believers who see Palin as chosen by God vs those who are not or don't believe that? It sounds intolerant and goes against the grain of my upbringing to view fellow Americans as unequal or inferior in knowledge or wisdom, especially on religious grounds -- but there's a disparity with reality out there in our "democracy." It's always been there I suppose but now might yield truly frightening results if by some freak accident of fate Mc and P win this election.

: well (none / 0) (#35)
by connecticut yankee on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:39:16 PM EST

There is no fix. That half the population is of below average intelligence is just how it is.
Morlocks want to vote Morlock. Best you can do is blind them with sunlight and hope the time machine can be repaired.

: Even worse are the numbers who think (none / 0) (#38)
by patriotgames on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 01:43:09 AM EST

OBAMA is qualified.
Get real, two term Mayor, 1/2 term Governor vs, a "present" senate Senator, and 1/2 term "present" US Senator??
And you REALLY question PALIN??????
Dear GOD the WHOLE ELECTION is "Who has the LEAST qualifications to be president!"
Change the Constitution, Get Bill Back!