The Polls - 10/6

DKos/R2000 (10/3-5) has Obama up 12, 52-40. Ras (10/3-5) has Obama up 8, 52-44. Battleground (9/30-10/2, 10/5) (PDF) has Obama up 7, 50-43. Gallup(10/2-4) has Obama up 7, 50-43. Hotline (10/2-4) has Obama up 7, 48-41.

Absent some miracle for McCain, this election is over. No national tracker has him closer than 7 points and there are 29 days to go in this election. What can McCain do? I know he will throw the kitchen sink at Obama but I can not imagine that being enough to turn this around. It's over.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    Howard Wolfson (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by bluegal on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:16:06 AM EST
    He agrees. He said it is over and that there is no way for Obama to lose.

    BTW, the dow has fallen below 10,000.

    I had not checked anything financial (none / 0) (#11)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:39:29 AM EST
    this morning.  Now knowing that, I think in the coming days the only thing that can happen is the spread in the Obama win growing because this recession is going to grow.  Republican style free market economyism has absolutely failed and has done so on all of our backs.  It is now dead and soon will follow anyone who endorsed it as the whole country falls hard thanks to only a couple of handfulls of rubber stamps a lot losers and the loser philosophies of their dear leader.  It is morning America, Everyone has been jarred Awake on impact.

    Ooh, ooh, Zogby Interactive is close!!!! (5.00 / 0) (#16)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:55:18 AM EST

    Zogby: for great LOL (5.00 / 0) (#19)
    by Faust on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:01:01 AM EST
    I'm still nervous. But maybe you're right. (5.00 / 0) (#26)
    by WillBFair on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:27:24 AM EST
    How sweet it will be to have the Clinton policy agenda back in the driver's seat. And the first African American President. Woo hoo!! The House and Senate in our greedy hands. Finally we can get something done.
    It's almost too good to be true. On the other hand, Obama will have a mess going in. The problems are bigger than government, and I think we should be pressing the public to behave more responsibly: financially, charitably, environmentally, etc.

    Updated Gallup -- from today. (5.00 / 0) (#42)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:11:14 PM EST
    Apparently 8 point lead for Obama.

    What's next? (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:11:45 AM EST
    I half expect that, within the week, McCain will be forced to pull out of Pennsylvania.

    He's going to have to adopt the Gore 2000 strategy: everything into  Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. And I'm not sure he even has the money for that.

    You know what's next! (none / 0) (#2)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:12:52 AM EST
    I say ten, ten, ten, ten ten.

    heh (none / 0) (#4)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:17:27 AM EST
    Now it's looking more like 7-8. But last week I said 3-6, so go figure.

    Have you been fudging? (none / 0) (#13)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:46:50 AM EST
    Are the dreams Bo Derek or Kim Bassinger? Do you have the movie collections of Dudley Moore or Mickey Rourke? Do you hold up the 10 like Len Goodman? Were you an Olympic Judge for Nadia Comaneci?  What does 9.49 round to? Gwen Ifill may or may not press you for the answers to these questions.

    I won't answer Ifill's questions. . . (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:56:53 AM EST
    she's writing a book entitle _Ten. Is It The New Three?"  She's disqualified.

    Can we talk about teddy bears?


    Here's the thing (none / 0) (#34)
    by fuzzyone on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:35:04 AM EST
    Even if he does that and gets all of those states, and gets N.C., MO, and IN, which are also in play and will be more so if he shifts all his money to the states you mention, that still only gets him to 269, making the whole Maine and Nebraska split thing potentially critical.  A very tough map for him.  (Ah, how I remember the days when some said Obama had no chance of winning PA or MI much less the heap of states he may well come away with.)

    My math isn't so great this morning. . . (none / 0) (#5)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:19:45 AM EST
    12, 8, 7, 7, and 7 averages to what?  8.5?  Getting pretty close to ten points, and already far outside the three to four point margin that non-foolish commenters believe is the widest possible difference in modern American politics.

    To be fair, I think the R2K poll should be discarded.  It's consistently five to six points outside what appears to be a consensus view.

    The question is -- is this the high point?  Will McCain's relentless negative campaign (and I don't think we've seen the full monty even yet) take it's toll on Obama's poll numbers?  Or have we reached a tipping point, and they'll backfire on McCain?

    Well, John McCain (none / 0) (#6)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:21:38 AM EST
    was up about this much in Florida about 10 days ago. But the fundamentals of his campaign are not sound.

    You mean the people in his campaign.. (none / 0) (#23)
    by RedJet on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:09:49 AM EST
    ...are not strong, right?

    "The fundamentals of his campaign are not strong"


    Couldn't resist. Apologize. Please conitinue.


    edit - "sound" not "strong" (none / 0) (#24)
    by RedJet on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:11:55 AM EST

    For the record (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:22:37 AM EST
    6 was the number I stated - 53-47.

    Little did I know that John McCain was an incompetent pol as well as an incompetent generally.

    Of course, the new Great Depression did not hurt Obama either.

    I will stand by my 6 though.


    I think it will be closer than ... (none / 0) (#12)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:43:50 AM EST
    6.  And Obama's resurgence is all about the economy and the Democratic brand.

    McCain could have played the last two weeks like a combination of John Maynard Keynes and St. Francis, and Obama would still be leading right now.


    Where did I get. . . (none / 0) (#14)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:51:15 AM EST
    that three to four percent number then?  I tried to find your original slam of my prediction.  I'm pretty sure our difference wasn't ten and six.

    Interestingly, right now it seems to depend on whether the McCain negative works (the numbers back off a couple of points) or backfires (the numbers keep going up).  I have no opinion, but I think that's because my heart (the public has to see through this garbage) is fighting my head (negative campaigning works).


    As a typical New Yorker (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:57:56 AM EST
    "Left-Wing, Communist, Jewish, homosexual pornographer," your memory is not to be trusted.

    Oh, and. . . (5.00 / 0) (#22)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:07:03 AM EST
    I was once at a party with someone who had once been at a party with Joseph Mengele.  Please inform Sarah Palin.

    You forgot. . . (none / 0) (#21)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:06:30 AM EST

    If I could find it, I would link (none / 0) (#43)
    by oculus on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 12:20:39 PM EST
    to Jeralyn's reply to one of my snarky comments.  She informed me every comment is attributable to the blog itself.  So, you mustn't docilely stand by as you are impugned.  

    P.S.  Is that an unattributed quote?


    Already included in "Communist" (none / 0) (#45)
    by MKS on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 03:13:45 PM EST
    It is assumed....

    You called? (none / 0) (#25)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:18:51 AM EST

    wow (none / 0) (#8)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:25:14 AM EST
    8 on ras and at 52.  That's a number to keep McCain awake at night.

    Oh, and because it's fun (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:26:08 AM EST
    The GOP-leaning Election Projection:

    Did you hear that swoosh sound coming from Election Projection last week?  No, it wasn't the mortgage crisis.  That noise was the bottom falling out for John McCain.

    One of the strategies that is ... (none / 0) (#10)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:38:26 AM EST
    being bandied about is McCain presenting himself as tonic to Democratic control.

    The whole "Americans like divided government" thing.

    A hard angle to play.  And not sure it would work anyway.

    ya (5.00 / 0) (#15)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 09:53:11 AM EST
    Mike Murphy pushed this yesterday on Meet the Press. Toe in the water but it was the first I'd heard of it.

    Desperation time (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Lou Grinzo on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:27:45 AM EST
    The Republicans are perilously close to the point in a western where one guy in a gunfight runs out of bullets and throws his gun.

    I expect the remainder of this campaign to be some of the filthiest politics we've ever seen.  The Republicans know that they and their corporate friends are facing a tidal wave of support from the voters for more regulation and an attempt to return to the US to a fair(er) economy, not just a "free" one.

    This is one of my pet peeves, this bizarre notion among the right wingers that less "government intervention" in markets is always a good thing and always leads to a freer market.  No, in the extreme it leads to anarchy, with companies free to do whatever they want to each other and the consumer.  A competitive market is an artificial construct that only exists in the presence of an appropriate level of government regulation.  A competitive market that serves humanitarian needs, like adequate health care for everyone and good public schools, requires an additional level of government intervention.


    The Election is over (none / 0) (#20)
    by jb64 on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:02:30 AM EST
    Sarah Palin would have been a great candidate in 2000. We may never see an economic picture as bright in our lifetimes that allow trivialities to influnce the outcome of Presidential elections (although the media will try)as we did that election year. She is a trivial candidate on the wrong side of history. She has the talent to lie effectively, but she will never ride a wave like Ronald Reagan did in 1980, or Barack Obama in 2008.

    Important Voter Registration Note (none / 0) (#28)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:28:25 AM EST
    If my info is correct...Today is the last day to "register" to vote for the Presidential election in the swing states of:


    Also ending this week...

    New Mexico


    Pennsylvania today too (none / 0) (#29)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:33:24 AM EST
    Today is the first day for early voting (none / 0) (#31)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:01:53 AM EST
    in Wisconsin.  But it's not expected to be as high as elsewhere, because we have same-day registration.  (Now, I could argue that's a good reason for early voting, because we are bound for long lines at the polls owing to the ACORN mess here and other problems.  But my morning paper told me same-day registration reduces early voting, although we have no useful precedents for such a statement, but that's yer media for ya.)

    A point re "new" voter registrations (none / 0) (#40)
    by Cream City on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:54:35 AM EST
    that was made in my morning paper.  My state reports more than 300,000 "new" voter registrations -- but it turns out that term includes "old" voters with new names (upon marriage) and new addresses.  The actual number of new voters registering so far is half that, i.e., 150,000.  (And those from ACORN, with a worker indicted here already and more to come, are being challenged.)

    Just a thought for those who extol "new" voter registration numbers as a major factor this year  -- check and see if they're really new voters.


    It Ain't Over Until It's Over (none / 0) (#30)
    by Nevart on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 10:38:18 AM EST
    I am very optimistic, as I always have been, but won't conclude it's over until it's over.  The polls will tighten before election day -- as they always do -- so expect to hear all sorts of media commentary on McCain "catching up" or Obama "flailing," yadda yadda.

    All this means people need to keep working, working, working for Obama, not to mention donating, donating, donating.

    SurveyUSA (none / 0) (#35)
    by flyerhawk on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:46:27 AM EST
    just came out with a poll for Virginia and New Hampshire that gives Obama a 10 point lead in Virginia and 13 point lead in New Hampshire.

    Add the poll released today from Suffolk showing Obama up 12 in Virgnia and you have to wonder if Virgnia is losing its swingness.

    Good news (none / 0) (#39)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:53:34 AM EST
    My sense is that both polls are a few points too Democratic, but still a good place to be.

    If McCain loses Virginia, he's finished. He'd have to go on a suicide mission to win Pennsylvania or Michigan.


    That Hew Hampshire Poll (none / 0) (#44)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 01:54:14 PM EST
    Should also be a huge boost for Jeanne Shaheen. An equivalent jump in Minnesota that helps Franken could put the Senate at 59. That's not a bad number. Sixty makes you have to think about what to do with Lieberman. At fifty-nine can be kicked to the curb.

    The Kentucky Senate seat (none / 0) (#47)
    by MKS on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 03:18:37 PM EST
    may be in reach.  Minority leader Mitch McConnell is below 50% and the Democrat may have a chance.

    Hagan is up by 9 over Liddy Dole in Norht Carolina, so the Democrats can shift some money to Minnesota and Kentucky....


    I know this is the line of the day, (none / 0) (#36)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:47:07 AM EST
    but forget it. Senate, maybe, but not president.

    If Obama wins Georgia (none / 0) (#38)
    by flyerhawk on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:49:51 AM EST
    that means a completely landslide for Obama.

    The way things are going that is not out of the question.


    If we were talking about reelection, (none / 0) (#41)
    by andgarden on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:55:38 AM EST
    I'd start working Georgia and Texas. But not this year.

    Senate victory in Georgia (none / 0) (#46)
    by MKS on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 03:15:44 PM EST
    would be sweet payback for Max Cleland.

    I mentioned last week (none / 0) (#37)
    by flyerhawk on Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:48:20 AM EST
    that it appears that Georgia was starting to look like a winnable state for Obama, albeit still an outside shot.