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The Polls - 10/4

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:29:52 PM EST
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All polls for the 9/30-10/2 period. Dkos/R2000 has Obama up 12, 52-40. Ras has Obama up 6, 51-45. Gallup has Obama up 8, 50-42. Hotline has Obama up 7, 48-41.

Two of the three days of polling in these polls came the nights after the Biden/Palin debate. It clearly was a nonevent. McCain's last stand comes Tuesday night - in his townhall/debate with Obama. Absent a miracle, this Presidential election is over.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

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    The Polls - 10/4 | 30 comments (30 topical)

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    Remember the good old days - (5.00 / 0) (#7)
    by Abbey on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:46:55 PM EST
    - when the conventional wisdom here was that Obama could never win MI, PA, OH or FL for various reasons such as the problems in primaries and working class voters?

    I like the trend in these polls.

    Someone explain Minnesota? (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by CoralGables on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 03:18:47 PM EST
    Two Senate polls out of Minnesota in the last two days.

    Coleman +10
    Franken +9

    Gotta love consistency among polls so you know what's happening.

    Agreed (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:31:54 PM EST
    PPP is hinting that Obama is well ahead in Ohio.

    McCain doesn't have the money to fight for Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

    This could very well be over, and Larry might get his wish--though I still doubt it.

    10 on election seems impossible (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:36:23 PM EST
    But 7 seems possible now.

    In nay event, I called this election in June so Larry's attempt to lord it over me is nonsense.

    Parent

    McCain dipped below 40% in R2k yesterday (none / 0) (#6)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:37:57 PM EST
    Maybe it's noise, or maybe is the floor falling out from under.

    But I think it's almost impossible that McCain will get less than 45 or 46% of the vote at the end of the day.

    Parent

    45% for McCain on election day (none / 0) (#11)
    by MKS on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:58:47 PM EST
    would be a blowout for Obama like Bush I over Dukakis.....

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    Indeed (none / 0) (#12)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:59:36 PM EST


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    I'd prefer the election (none / 0) (#8)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:50:19 PM EST
    not be decided or strongly influenced by which candidate spent the most money, espec. if the loser is the one who agreed to accept public financing.

    Parent
    I think that ideal... (none / 0) (#10)
    by Thanin on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:55:53 PM EST
    died long before this election.

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    7, 10 & Larry? (none / 0) (#13)
    by MKS on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 03:02:30 PM EST
    I have read many posts here but is there some translation available?

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    Larry thinks Obama has it by 10 (none / 0) (#14)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 03:03:57 PM EST


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    And BTD doesn't. (none / 0) (#15)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 03:05:43 PM EST


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    Who is Larry? (none / 0) (#16)
    by MKS on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 03:07:37 PM EST
    I am missing something really obvious here?

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    LarryInNYC (5.00 / 0) (#17)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 03:09:39 PM EST


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    Looks like landslide (none / 0) (#2)
    by Militarytracy on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:32:03 PM EST
    Not going to look better either as our economy begins to take a giant kerflush.

    Why would you call it a "miracle."? (none / 0) (#3)
    by Blowback on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:34:25 PM EST
    If McCain wins, do you mean this is a miracle?

    Not for me. I would call it another disaster such as we saw 8 years ago.

    One Way to Look at the Miracle (none / 0) (#20)
    by kaleidescope on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 04:59:01 PM EST
    The boils that appeared on Job's face were miracles.  So was the death of his cattle.  Miracles aren't always good things.

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    My wish list (none / 0) (#4)
    by coigue on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:35:26 PM EST
    a better system for continuing medical coverage if you are switching jobs (COBRA sucks).

    A substantial investment in a new green economy.

    Redepolyment into Afghanistan, the remainder of troops come home, and get full benefits.

    I like that HOLC thingy,too.

    ;)

    For what reasons do you (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 02:51:42 PM EST
    support additional U.S. military in Afghanistan?  

    Parent
    for the same ones I supported the (none / 0) (#19)
    by coigue on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 03:36:44 PM EST
    Afghan invasion in the first place.

    Parent
    Care to elaborate? (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 08:36:54 PM EST


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    maybe later (none / 0) (#29)
    by coigue on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 09:39:48 PM EST
    I just watched Donnie Darko and I am feeling a bit down.

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    OK short answer; (none / 0) (#30)
    by coigue on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 11:46:23 PM EST
    that is where OBL is, and that is where he is training his peeps.

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    ya (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by connecticut yankee on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 06:03:22 PM EST
    I'm for most of that, but also stopping the deficit spending. I think democrats should take fiscal reponsibility away from republicans.

    With the Clinton record backing it up, the democrats can steal the issue with another round of debt reduction.

    Parent

    well (none / 0) (#21)
    by connecticut yankee on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 06:00:35 PM EST
    October 4th 2004 had Kerry down 2 on gallup.  That's pretty close to the final results on election day.  I much prefer these polls.

    Debates in general ... (none / 0) (#22)
    by Robot Porter on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 06:00:47 PM EST
    are nonevents. And this one in particular.  But I wouldn't look for its effects till Monday/Tuesday.

    You need to give the public a chance to digest it.  Talk to friends, family, co-workers.  And wait for the media spin to sink in.

    I don't think it will have an effect.  But you really have to wait that long to see if it does.

    Anything could happen. The public could turn (none / 0) (#25)
    by WillBFair on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 07:42:32 PM EST
    on a dime over any trivial event. But it would help if Obama would skewer Mccain in the next debate. He totally flubbed the last one.
    McCain's record is the opposite of everything he says now, and he's more vulnerable than Arnold in a pink leather harness covered in chocolate honey goo.

    Yeah (none / 0) (#26)
    by Nevart on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 08:05:10 PM EST
    Yeah, Obama blew the last debate so much that the polls had him winning it 2-1.  Jeez, what a loser.

    Three weeks ago all the Nervous Nellies on this site were bemoaning how Obama wasn't going to win and blaming it on his not picking Hillary.  When are people going to acknowledge that this guy has run a brilliant, no-drama, in-it-for-the-long-haul campaign?

    "no drama" is a very interesting phrase (none / 0) (#28)
    by andgarden on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 09:30:27 PM EST
    I find that it's often a nasty synonym for "I hate the Clintons."

    In any case, I agree that there's "no drama," but for a different reason: I think the Obama cam suffers from an extreme excess of caution. And in a different political climate, that could be deadly.

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    Hey Nevart.... (none / 0) (#31)
    by coigue on Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 11:48:04 PM EST
    this site holds a wide variety of opinions, and the OBama haters are mostly gone or muted now.

    So why don't you look around and enjoy the changes before opening your flap.

    Parent

    The Polls - 10/4 | 30 comments (30 topical)

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