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Final PPP State Polls: Obama Leading Big Among Independents

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 11:58:08 AM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, 2008 (all tags)
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Public Policy Polling's final state polls are out. It's looking good for Obama among Independents.

  • Colorado: Obama 60-36
  • Michigan: Obama 53-40
  • Minnesota: Obama 55-37
  • New Mexico: Obama 66-28
  • Oregon: Obama 53-41

Obama is also getting more Republican votes than John McCain is getting Democrat votes.

To see the actual polls, here's Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon.

< PPP CO Poll: Obama Up By 10 | Gallup Trad Turnout Model: Obama By 8 >

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    Final PPP State Polls: Obama Leading Big Among Independents | 7 comments (7 topical)

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    Final polls? (none / 0) (#1)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:04:54 PM EST
    I think the election is over but any final poll that ends 4 days from the election is not going to be able to catch late movement.

    I do not expect late movement, but this seems a bad move by PPP. They would have done better to poll through Sunday nght at the least.

    They promise final polls in more Competitive (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:10:08 PM EST
    states on Sunday. I think they have on tap: FL, VA, GA, MO, PA, NC and perhaps a couple of others.

    Parent
    With this degree of early voting. . . (none / 0) (#3)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:12:16 PM EST
    I imagine they'll stop polling earlier and earlier in some states.

    With two thirds "reporting" for Colorado and giving Obama a 17 point (!) lead, McCain needs to beat him by 34 points in the remaining sample to tie.

    Parent

    hm (none / 0) (#5)
    by connecticut yankee on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:15:14 PM EST
    I was confused by this stuff yesterday.  Are states currently reporting earlly voting results or is this some kind of poll?

    I saw something about a 4 point lead in FL but wasnt sure if it was an acutal count.

    Parent

    It's polling. (none / 0) (#6)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 01:05:52 PM EST
    The polling orgs (like PPP) are still polling, but now dividing the sample into people who say they've already voted and people show say they plan to vote on election day.

    Since the overall sample size remains the same (I believe) the margin of error on each of the two sub-samples is larger -- especially when the percentage of voters who fall into one sample or the other is small.  For instance, when reporting that ten percent of voters say they already voted, the margin of error is comparatively large.

    In this brave new world of early voting, reporting the "already voted" poll results raises some questions -- notably, isn't it just the same as reporting exit polls while the polls are still open?

    Parent

    For those without a clue, the first (none / 0) (#4)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 12:14:47 PM EST
    sign McCain was going to lose was the bizzare decision to fight for "purple states" such as Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Iowa and to a lesser extent Pennslyvania I can understand, but these three? Get real. Of course, tin foilers will probably stand behind their new leader Palin and still argue against reality and logic.

    Believe it or not (none / 0) (#7)
    by eric on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:31:47 PM EST
    in Minnesota, I got another anti-Obama flyer in the mail just yesterday.  The polls aren't even close here, but he is still trying.

    Parent
    Final PPP State Polls: Obama Leading Big Among Independents | 7 comments (7 topical)

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