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Friday Polling: Obama Ahead

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:30:07 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)
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Today's Presidential Polls:

  • 10/3: Gallup Pres-Tracker: Obama 49%, McCain 42%

  • 10/3: Hotline/Diageo Pres-Tracker: Obama 48%, McCain 42%

  • 10/3: Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 44%

  • 10/3: Survey USA MN: Obama 46%, McCain 47%

  • 10/3: Rasmussen NH: Obama 53%, McCain 43%

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    Friday Polling: Obama Ahead | 39 comments (39 topical)

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    It would appear that (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by flyerhawk on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:36:57 PM EST
    New Hampshire has finally moved to a solid blue state.  You knew it was going to happen just a matter of when.

    The Minnesota poll is surprising and seems to be a bit of an outlier compared to the other recent polls.  

    Finally (none / 0) (#18)
    by CST on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:03:21 PM EST
    I hope McCain pulls out of the market so I don't have to see anymore "scary big government" commercials during sox games.

    Parent
    Those NH polls (none / 0) (#37)
    by CoralGables on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 06:33:16 PM EST
    moving Obama out to big leads today can only mean good things for the tight Shaheen/Sununu race. Jeanne Shaheen should be able to put this one away without a nailbiter with those +10 types of numbers for Obama.

    Parent
    I just read that 42% more people watched (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Teresa on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:43:23 PM EST
    the debate last night than the Obama/McCain debate. A lot of curiosity about Palin, I guess. Plus the other was on a Friday night which should never have been scheduled that way.

    I thought NH was supposed to be close right now.

    Rubbernecking. (none / 0) (#7)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:44:52 PM EST
    People can't resist an accident scene -- even an accident waiting to happen.

    Move along, nothing to see here.

    Parent

    Also (none / 0) (#17)
    by CST on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:02:34 PM EST
    The presidential debate was on at 9pm on a friday night.

    How many people said "screw it, I'm going out"?

    I was one of those people.

    Parent

    Good point (none / 0) (#23)
    by samtaylor2 on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:28:09 PM EST
    Why schedule a debate for a Friday night?

    Parent
    Thought we'd see ... (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:57:27 PM EST
    Obama up by 12% in a couple of polls today.  Maybe I'm off a couple of days, and we'll see that over the weekend.

    Either way, we're entering the Obama peak period.  The race will begin to slowly tighten next week.  But McCain won't be able to catch him in the stretch.

    Still, it will end up closer than it should.

    There are some tiny bat-squeaks of warning in some of those state polls. But not enough to worry me.

    I will still argue that absent the financial crisis Obama would probably have lost this thing.  But I'd have to zip over to an alternate universe to check that out.  And my alternate universe machine is on the fritz.

    ;)

    I hate when SUSA does a MN poll (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by TruthMatters on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 04:11:15 PM EST
    I swear they can't poll this state.

    seriously people listen MN is blue, I don't know where they got this idea we are a swing state, the reason we have a republican governor is because MN actually has 3 parties, in 2006 Pawlenty beat Hatch by 20,000 votes, the Independence Party got 140,000 votes in 2006, in 2002 when Pawlenty was first elected the Ind. Party got 300,000+ votes. thus its harder for us democrats at the state level but even then our Senate is 44 dems 22 Gop, our house is the same numbers

    we are a blue state.

    don't even worry about MN, if Obama loses MN its because he lost just about every other blue state then also.

    Governers are a bad benchmark (none / 0) (#30)
    by CST on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 04:21:12 PM EST
    of what a state will do in a national election anyway.

    Just think about CA - does anyone think that's going McCain?

    Or for that matter MA, which, until recently, had Republican governers for decades while consistently being one of the bluest states in the countries for national elections.


    Parent

    A Dem is gov of freaking oklahoma... (none / 0) (#31)
    by Thanin on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 04:35:19 PM EST
    need I say more?

    Parent
    Kansas (none / 0) (#34)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:45:22 PM EST


    Parent
    PA? (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 06:06:03 PM EST
    What do you think?  Warning:  Huff Po link:

    McCain could give up on PA

    Parent

    I think he had to choose one (none / 0) (#36)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 06:29:43 PM EST
    Giving up on PA would mean that a vast majority of the election is being fought on Republican turf.

    That's bad for them.

    Parent

    I think McCain's problem is... (none / 0) (#38)
    by CoralGables on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 06:40:35 PM EST
    every competitive state this year used to be Republican turf. Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Missouri and Obama may win all of them.

    Parent
    True (none / 0) (#39)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 06:48:15 PM EST


    Parent
    well I was guessing (none / 0) (#32)
    by TruthMatters on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 04:35:42 PM EST
    maybe thats why people keep thinking MN is a swing state.

    sure its always close, but we don't tip, and we are NOT tipping to McCain.

    once again SUSA gives a bad MN poll. just seriously no one should wonder, like I said if Obama loses MN, its because he already lost the election.

    We are going blue!

    Parent

    I very much hope that the MN poll (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:35:51 PM EST
    is wrong. I think the age demos suggest that it is.

    Otherwise, good news.

    minnesota (none / 0) (#4)
    by txpublicdefender on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:37:02 PM EST
    I can't imagine that Minnesota result is accurate.

    Parent
    The only thing I can think of (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:47:05 PM EST
    would be a Palin accent effect.

    But this year, I wouldn't expect that to be enough.

    Parent

    1 word (none / 0) (#14)
    by wystler on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:56:31 PM EST
    HOCKEY

    the hockey-mom image plays damned strong in the land of 10k lakes

    plenty of time for that to fade

    Parent

    I read somewhere (none / 0) (#27)
    by liminal on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 03:28:05 PM EST
    - that a bunch of Minnesotans were resettled to the Wasilla area in the 1930s through some government jobs program, explaining the strong correlation in accents.  

    For what its worth.

    The numbers still seem off.  I hope they are.  

    Parent

    On another blog (none / 0) (#6)
    by Steve M on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:44:27 PM EST
    someone noted that this poll has Obama up by 3% in the Twin Cities, where Kerry beat Bush by 20%.  I can't vouch for those numbers, but it sounded truthy so I'm repeating it.

    Parent
    If you talk to BTD. . . (none / 0) (#2)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:36:29 PM EST
    just let him I know I said "ten", okay?

    Not to mention (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Steve M on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:45:39 PM EST
    BTD had the "under" for the VP debate - less than 40 million would watch, he said - and I had the "over."  Apparently the actual result looks something like 70-75 million.

    Parent
    Wow, (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:49:02 PM EST
    You're collecting!

    Parent
    I hadn't forgotten. . . (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:49:46 PM EST
    less than 40 million would watch, he said

    but I understand a bit more about BTD's attitude for Palin after he mentioned last night that he sees her as a proxy for women politicians in general.  If she is seen to drag down the McCain campaign I think he's afraid it will tarnish women in politics in general (I think it will tarnish stupid people in politics, a good thing in my book).

    Someone at "another blog" has a graph showing the last pre-VP tracking average was 7.75% in favor of the O-man.  I think he left out Battleground.  Still, getting awfully close to 10% -- and BTD stated that an election decided by more than 3 percent is impossible in the current climate.

    Parent

    I have been consistently saying (5.00 / 0) (#15)
    by flyerhawk on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:56:40 PM EST
    for several months that Obama would by 7-10 points and about 330 EV.  

    I was scoffed at by many people when I was saying this in July.  Seems like the most likely result at this point.

    Parent

    I knew he blew that bet. Not on a weekend and (none / 0) (#12)
    by Teresa on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:49:53 PM EST
    the curiosity about Palin. I knew it would be huge. It was like an ESPN game day atmosphere for my family. I was in the BTD camp on that though. I didn't want to see her fall flat on her face because I'm just not that kind of person. I do think Biden won though.

    Parent
    No way (none / 0) (#13)
    by Faust on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:53:11 PM EST
    he said that?

    Parent
    The evidence (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Steve M on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 01:57:50 PM EST
    is right here, he chortled gleefully.

    Parent
    wow (none / 0) (#20)
    by Faust on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:13:10 PM EST
    I guess the unhinging effect of Palinpalooza run in two directoins.

    Parent
    You and larry have scared him off (none / 0) (#33)
    by oculus on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:10:53 PM EST
    today?  

    Parent
    The numbers (none / 0) (#19)
    by JThomas on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:06:54 PM EST
    may have been helped by the way the Cubs went out and got blown out early again....I know I was flipping to the Cubs early out of morbid curiosity to see who would choke worse...Cubs or Palin?   It was the Cubs...of course. Even Palin has a better shot than the cubs.

    Ditto re the Brewers (none / 0) (#29)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 04:16:36 PM EST
    Sigh.  0-2 now.

    If Sabathia can't do it, and he didn't, we're done.  Maybe in another 26 years. . . .

    Parent

    Be careful of what you wish for... (none / 0) (#21)
    by bocajeff on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:20:58 PM EST
    you may actually get it. If anyone thinks that the Dems in power of the executive and legislative is going to be good then you haven't been watching for the past 1 1/2 years. If you asked two of them to play tic-tac-toe you would get six months of bickering followed by two months of "it's all Bush's fault" and then FISA capitulation and Clintonian triangulation. And then wait til the 2010 midterms and it will get all fun all over again.

    If I was in better shape I would be grabbing my ankles about now, but I guess my knees will have to do.

    I hope those Mn numbers (none / 0) (#22)
    by kenosharick on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:26:35 PM EST
    do not translate to downticket Dems. I was REALLY hoping that Al Franken would send that jerk coleman back to St.Paul.

    The 3rd party candidate is killing (none / 0) (#25)
    by TomStewart on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:43:35 PM EST
    Franken in MN. He's now trailing Coleman.

    Parent
    Real Clear has Obama up in MN (none / 0) (#24)
    by samtaylor2 on Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:32:56 PM EST
    by 5 points on average.  Rasmussion + 5 Obama (9/18), Quinnepec +2 obama (9/21), CNN +11 (9/28), SurveyUSA +1 McCain (9/30).  

    Friday Polling: Obama Ahead | 39 comments (39 topical)

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