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The Poll - 10/22: The Number Is 10

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 08:56:03 AM EST
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10 is the magic number today. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 10, 51-41. NBC/WSJ has Obama up 10, 52-42. Gallup has Obama up 10, 52-42. Now Zogby has decided that the best way to get some coverage is to say Obama plus 10, 52-42.

WaPo has Obama up 9, 53-44. Ipsos McClatchey has Obama up 8, 50-42. Ras has Obama up 6, 51-45. Hotline has Obama up 5, 47-42. IBD/TIPP has Obama up 6, 47-41. McCain hopes Battleground has it right and it is a 2 point race. Seems unlikely.

13 days to go, and it appears to be over in the Presidential race.

By Big Tent Democrat,speaking for me only

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    The Poll - 10/22: The Number Is 10 | 103 comments (103 topical)

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    Larry will be happy (5.00 / 4) (#1)
    by andgarden on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:01:22 AM EST
    Anyway, I ignore Zogby no matter what he says. Tomorrow he'll want a drudge headline and report accordingly.

    Happy? Never! (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:01:36 AM EST
    It's so uncomfortable for me to have to say "I told you so".

    And anyway, it's a bit worrying being on the same page as Zogby.  I guess I'll have to trust that the's a stopped clock.

    Parent

    Without my reading glasses. . . (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:39:54 AM EST
    I can't quite make out what the magic number is.  Could you repeat it?

    That would be... (none / 0) (#11)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:57:56 AM EST
    369 (and a 200 EV margin of victory)

    Parent
    369-270= 99 (none / 0) (#42)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:49:49 AM EST
    but yeh, you get to round it up to 100, anyway. :-)

    Parent
    369+270= 639 (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Steve M on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:55:18 AM EST
    which is a lot more EVs than actually exist!

    Parent
    You guys (none / 0) (#57)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:28:10 AM EST
    must have failed math

    369 minus 169 equals 200

    369 for Obama plus 169 for McCain = 538 electoral votes = a 200 Electoral vote margin of victory

    Parent

    Gosh (none / 0) (#63)
    by Steve M on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:42:22 AM EST
    Because I gently correct someone else's slip, I must have failed math?  Standards are tough on the Internet!

    Parent
    sorry Steve (none / 0) (#68)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 12:14:02 PM EST
    wasn't sure if you were correcting or acknowledging the original.

    Parent
    Yawn (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by Steve M on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:44:26 AM EST
    For the last couple days I've had to listen to any number of people tell me, "Hey, I heard the race is tightening!"  Rather than get into a complicated explanation, I found it simplest just to tell them "no, it's not."

    All to the good. (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:05:40 AM EST
    Complacency might lower turnout slightly.

    And there was a small tightening in many of the polls a few days ago -- they have Obama down about two points from his high.  Fortunately, it seems to have been a one time event, not a trend.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#27)
    by Steve M on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:17:05 AM EST
    That's a good strategy in terms of how to drive people to the polls.  I'm not going to mislead my friends about the state of the race just to make sure they vote, though.

    Someone was passing out what looked like Obama literature at my subway stop in New Jersey last night.  New Jersey!  We don't have a competitive Senate or House race in my area, either.  But there's apparently no complacency!

    Parent

    Drudge has a link (none / 0) (#89)
    by MKS on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:20:55 PM EST
    saying internal Obama polls show only a two point Obama lead in Pennsylvania....

    The article suggests that an Obama Field Director sent around an internal e-mail to keep his or her crew from becoming complacent.  No doubt, a two point lead would prevent that, and a ten point lead would not.

    Parent

    My local news station... (none / 0) (#15)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:03:22 AM EST
    covering the Obama campaign stop in Miami last night said, "The National polls are tight with some showing Senator Obama in the lead while others have John McCain winning".

    Parent
    Honestly, I think it's ok if news people (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by andgarden on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:07:11 AM EST
    say that, even though it isn't true. It's sure to help drive turnout.

    Parent
    And in that vein (none / 0) (#48)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:01:16 AM EST
    some of the reason behind the long voter lines in Florida is starting to make the news. It's not just more people flocking to the polls but also the Republican Legislature in 2006 passing a bill on a party line vote to restrict hours and allowable places for early voting.


    The 82-36 House vote was largely along party lines, with Democrat motions to expand the hours all falling flat.

    House Bill 1567 took effect during the 2006 election cycle. Before its passage, early voting centers could remain open for up to 12 hours on weekdays, and for a total of eight hours over the weekend.

    Today, early voting sites are limited to eight hours on weekdays and a total of eight aggregate hours on weekends. Local governments are now limited to using libraries, city halls and election headquarters as polling sites.

    What it did was eliminate an average of 4 hours per day of voting time during the early voting period...and today the long lines continue

    News update on voting line from the Miami Herald:


    The more things change, the more they stayed the same on day three of early voting in South Florida.

    Large throngs patiently waited to cast their presidential ballots across South Florida.



    Parent
    Does FL have a mechanism (none / 0) (#55)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:22:11 AM EST
    for a registered voter to request absentee ballot for all elections?  (Even if not absent and no need to re-request for each election?)

    Parent
    That would be (none / 0) (#61)
    by CoralGables on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:40:20 AM EST
    a partial yes. You can request an absentee ballot for 2 years at a time. There is also the benefit of being able to track your absentee ballot online within some counties so as to be sure that it arrived and was counted with no problems.

    Parent
    I wish CA had the tracking feature. (none / 0) (#62)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:42:08 AM EST


    Parent
    Charlie Cook (none / 0) (#24)
    by Lahdee on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:13:07 AM EST
    is hedging his bets.
    "The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it's only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn't that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one."
    Link

    Parent
    Still need Virginia or Colorado or Fla. or Oh. (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Lil on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:02:44 AM EST
    I want to see 10 points in at least one of those states.

    Will you settle for 8.5 (none / 0) (#51)
    by fuzzyone on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:06:14 AM EST
    That's the pollster average in Virginia

    Parent
    Oh goodie (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:04:19 AM EST
    Can we be critical yet without being accused of being right wing plants who want the Republicans to win cause Hillary lost?   Like I said early on, it's not Obama who is the problem, it's the "movement".  

    Let's do that starting Nov 5th (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Lil on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:06:20 AM EST


    Parent
    Oh, yes on my knees, I will obey (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:08:16 AM EST


    Parent
    Well, you don't really have to get on your knees. (none / 0) (#25)
    by Lil on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:14:06 AM EST


    Parent
    Idolatry mandates it. (5.00 / 4) (#28)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:18:19 AM EST


    Parent
    No. (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:07:45 AM EST
    Can we be critical yet without being accused of being right wing plants

    Two more weeks.

    But think of all the fun you'll have when Obama actually is the President and turns out to govern from the center (and from the right of Clinton).  I may even have to learn how to spell schadenfruede!

    Parent

    "America is more to the right" (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:09:51 AM EST
    Gee, don't know why the leftie blogs got worked up about that, Obama has been telling us that for a long time and running a more to the right campaign.  

    Parent
    Obama has run a solid (5.00 / 0) (#33)
    by brodie on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:27:10 AM EST
    moderately-liberal campaign.  Tax cuts for 95%, tax hike on those in the top 5% of income.  Hardly a rightie position there.  Major progressive position on healthcare reform, and one likely to end up closer to Hillary's stance by the time the dust settles in a more progressive Dem congress.  Necessary tough talk about going after Al Queda, for sure.

    Hasn't been a successful Dem campaign that ran on a purely liberal platform since probably Lyndon in 64, and that was a campaign in a solidly liberal era of No more change where he could have phoned it in against a weak and extremist opponent.  (of course, LBJ was a little deceptive in his public pronouncements re his actual intentions on VN ...)

    Parent

    I can't wait for the Schadenfreude (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by dk on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:12:00 PM EST
    I get to exude over brodie when this is all over.  It's the only thing keeping me going these days, that's for sure.

    Parent
    Perspective (none / 0) (#35)
    by coast on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:32:45 AM EST
    Do you really think he will govern from the center and that he is to the right of Clinton.  From a republican perspective I can only hope that you are correct.  However, I don't think it will go that way at all, especially with a Democratic controlled congress.

    Parent
    Yes. . . (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:43:49 AM EST
    I think he will be a solidly centrist President (although the Republicans may not consider him to be so, since they are insane).  In comparison with Clinton, I think there's very little policy difference but where there is, on balance, I think Obama tends to a slightly less liberal approach (that may not be true on certain issues but I believe it is for a majority of issues on which they differ).

    Parent
    The major difference BC-Obama is (none / 0) (#54)
    by brodie on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:21:40 AM EST
    the tenor of the political times, and the more liberal times now, times of urgency as well, with a likely overwhelming Dem mod-lib majority, will dictate a more progressive approach than what BC and the softly moderate Dem congress (then center-right Repub congress) gave us.

    Obama will not tinker at the margins like Bill.  He will have his opening and will seek to become the sort of positive "transformational" figure of which he spoke approvingly in the campaign re FDR.  That does not quite mean, however, that the never-satisfied purists on the left will witness a progressive utopia under Obama ...

    Parent

    Brodie, I would posit that (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by dk on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:20:08 PM EST
    absolutely the opposite is the case.  The US is undergoing an economic and foreign policy "slump" that is is not large enough to force radical change.  The financial bailout and Obama's goldilocks ads on healthcare have given us the preview of what is to come, i.e. very small tinkering of republican positions around the edges so as not to disturb the status quo in any significant way.

    The only real difference with Obama over McCain will be in tax policy.  That's fine, but it is really only another example of tinkering at the margins, since at most it means that the middle class will keep a few hundred extra dollars a year.  Better than nothing, perhaps, but not structural change.  Meanwhile, the "compromise" will probably be vouchers for private religious schools (and more public funding for religious institutions generally) that will absorb money that could be spent on public education.

    Parent

    Transformative in what direction?! (none / 0) (#59)
    by ThatOneVoter on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:28:56 AM EST
    I really don't think that's up to Obama.


    Parent
    Not much gain in the Senate (none / 0) (#71)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:06:18 PM EST
    is predicted, and the downtickets generally have not had much support from the DNC, Obama, etc.  The only emails I get about downticket Dem races are from Clinton.

    The general trend may mean some pickup seats, but will that give the Dem holdovers in Congress, even when they have had a majority, some guts?  I don't see why.  They got a big win in 2006, and for what?

    Parent

    Not much gain in the Senate???? (5.00 / 0) (#72)
    by andgarden on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:10:47 PM EST
    WTF are you talking about? Dems will pick up AT LEAST 4 seats.

    Parent
    Right now the Democrats (3.00 / 2) (#85)
    by MKS on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:12:40 PM EST
    would pick up at least 7:

     Va
     NH
     NM
     Co.
     NC
     Minn
     Oregon

    And these two are possible:

     Alaska--if Stevens is convicted, Begich wins.
     Ky.--McConnell is about tied.

    Two others on the radar screen and perhaps winnable:

      Ga.--is the turnout really going to be that big?
      Miss--again, is the turnout big this time?

    This a pretty standard analysis accepted by most....andgarden,  as you should know by now, Cream only pays attention to polls that are bad for Obama, or that can be blamed on Obama....But complacency is the greatest problem right now, so worrying about an Obama win is a good place to be....  

    Parent

    I am aware. (3.00 / 2) (#87)
    by andgarden on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:14:20 PM EST


    Parent
    The point is power, no matter the presidency (1.00 / 0) (#95)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 06:04:21 PM EST
    and so the pickup needed is to get to 60.

    That's the excuse we've been hearing since 2006 -- and before.  What's the use of anything less than 60, with the gutless Dems there now, in the event that we don't get a Dem in the White House?  (Or if we do, and he vetoes really liberal policies, too.)

    Other than that . . . go find someone else for your spleen and spew, which is so laughable.  You're getting egged on by a college kid who is the joke of the other board.  Bwwwwaaaahhhh.

    Parent

    I like College kids (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by MKS on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:10:51 PM EST
    I respect them too...& don't diminish their talent or wisdom just becasue they're young....

    I don't trash them as deluded or callow.  I do not assume that a cynical, jaded view of the world is always the correct one....I do not ridicule their idealism and energy.  I do not believe the best way to encourage further learning is to tout my own knowledge while saying how stupid they are....

    I do try to keep up--my son in college helps here (somewhat)....They're not big on e-mail....

    The other board...ahem...yes, well...let them stew...

    And, Cream, the closer to 60 Democratic seats the better--you know that.  It is always possible to pick off a Republican or two....We will still have the two Maine Senators, and Senator Magic Bullet from Pennsylvania....

    Parent

    That would be good. I've seen 59 (none / 0) (#76)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:34:52 PM EST
    as the projection at some sites -- not that I pay as much attention to that part, as neither of my Senators is up this year.  I'll watch them more closely now to see what you see, wherever that is.

    Parent
    Obama may try to be a centrist (none / 0) (#79)
    by coast on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 02:06:37 PM EST
    but do you really believe Reid and Pelosi will not be pushing him further and further left, especially if Reid has 60 Dems in the Senate (which is not out of the realm of possibility at this point).  Obama will be put into a corner, pass left legislation that the right will point out in the next election cycle or show-up Reid and Pelosi by vetoing their bills ( I doubt it would make it that far).  I think Reid and Pelosi are the wildcards in the deck and it will be interesting to see how Obama handles them.

    Parent
    LOL. So now we are leaving (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by dk on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 02:51:47 PM EST
    it up to anti-choice Reid and "impeachment is off the table" Pelosi to push Obama to the left?  I may not have Schadenfreude yet, but that did make me chuckle.

    Parent
    heh (none / 0) (#83)
    by connecticut yankee on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 03:50:39 PM EST
    In the talk radio madrassas they think Reid and Pelosi are communists and atheists.  Like they used to hate that wild radical, Tom Daschel. heh.

    Parent
    Well, I put about as much (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by dk on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:34:49 PM EST
    stock in what the average talk radio host/commenter has to say as I do in what the average Obamabot has to say.  

    Parent
    Just curious... (5.00 / 0) (#94)
    by coigue on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 05:48:51 PM EST
    who do you think is truely liberal in the Senate?

    (other than Clinton)

    Parent

    Whose views have you been (5.00 / 1) (#92)
    by sallywally on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 05:18:03 PM EST
    listeing to? Reid and Pelosi have buckled under to Bush and the Repubs every chance they've gotten. They pushed Obama through for the exact purpose of having a center-right president.

    Parent
    Stelllaaa translated: (5.00 / 3) (#29)
    by coigue on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:19:47 AM EST
    Do I get to say anything I want now and not get called on it?

    Answer: never

    Parent

    Gee.... (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:23:40 AM EST
    ohhh, busted.  ICoiuge, will you put in a good word for me to the "movement"?  

    Parent
    LOL (5.00 / 2) (#41)
    by coigue on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:48:12 AM EST
    crash and burn.

    Parent
    Now, now, Stellaaa. (5.00 / 2) (#37)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:34:54 AM EST
    You know the answer to your question, don't you, dear?

    Parent
    Oculus (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:08:51 AM EST
    I just want to know where will they take us?   My god, one good thing about November 5th, will the Obama icons come down on this site?  

    Parent
    It is soooo difficult. (5.00 / 1) (#56)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:25:03 AM EST
    I've got duct tape on my fingers!  

    Parent
    Watch out there Tommy Thompson (none / 0) (#60)
    by coigue on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:38:38 AM EST
    Is it a code red?

    Parent
    Why would you want to be critical now? (5.00 / 1) (#86)
    by MKS on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:14:05 PM EST


    Parent
    why would you want to suppress (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by Dr Molly on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:08:08 PM EST
    non-group-think discussion on a blog?

    Parent
    I want to win (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by MKS on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:18:59 PM EST
    Two weeks before an election, that should matter ....Digs about Obama personally seem counterproductive, no?  It really is not about policy right now--as no new ones are likely to be unvieled....

    But the Left is ever so the Left....Marat, Danton, Robespierre all victims not of Monarchists but of the Left...

    Parent

    How does criticism on this blog (none / 0) (#101)
    by Spamlet on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 12:05:53 AM EST
    affect the outcome of the election? Who do you think is paying attention to us?

    Parent
    A lot of people (none / 0) (#102)
    by MKS on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 09:30:12 AM EST
    This is a leading blog....Democratic partisans who could get caught up in drama....And, opponents do view this blog too....

    Parent
    Well, it's still (none / 0) (#103)
    by Spamlet on Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 05:00:35 PM EST
    one person, one vote. Could we really say anything here about Obama that would not be intelligently countered by others on this forum? If some voters are weak-minded enough to switch from Obama to McCain because of critical comments left on a blog, we're giving ourselves too much credit for our powers of persuasion.

    Parent
    I think the answer is clearly 'no', stellaa (4.00 / 3) (#75)
    by Dr Molly on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:33:58 PM EST
    It'll be a good several years before they wear out the 'just get over the primary bitterness' or 'you're a mccain republican shill' ammo. But don't shut up, please!

    Parent
    Assuming Obama wins (5.00 / 3) (#88)
    by MKS on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:15:51 PM EST
    many will begin to criticize his policies....trying to influence it....that makes sense.

    Mindless repetition of talking points about Obama's character has only one point right now....

    Parent

    Right... (3.50 / 2) (#97)
    by Dr Molly on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:09:15 PM EST
    Mindless talking points when you say so for everyone.

    We'll be sure to get the movement's permission on what and when to say things from now on.

    Parent

    I am sure....you are right. (none / 0) (#81)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 02:47:51 PM EST


    Parent
    Zoglolby (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Faust on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:10:40 AM EST


    Dems (5.00 / 2) (#36)
    by bocajeff on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:32:52 AM EST
    With a large electoral victory in the Pres race and large majorities in both houses of congress, I'm curious to see how the Dems govern. If its anything like the past two years in Congress then we're in trouble.

    What is MSNBC going to do with three hours each night and no Republicans or Clintons to clobber?

    More interesting to see (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:57:41 AM EST
    will be watching Fox, as it has been interesting to surf there throughout this campaign and especially in recent weeks.  As noted upthread, Fox actually seems to be calling this race as it is far more than the networks desperately trying to create a horserace for their ratings, rather than reflect reality.

    Maybe with the ratings and diehard fans that Fox has, it is freed to be more reality-based, because its audience is not fair-weather fans, not folks who get interested in politics only every four years?

    Parent

    Fractious and fractured Dems. (5.00 / 2) (#66)
    by marian evans on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:48:17 AM EST
    It's going to be interesting to see what happens to the Dems in the aftermath of this election cycle.

    In the race to election day and the anticipated pleasures of being in a post-Bush world, it's easy to forget the fractures which have been opened in the Dem party.

    Some dangerous weaknesses have been exposed in the Dems, and when the Reps actually field a strong candidate (as they deliberately did not in this election cycle - Sen McCain is the sacrificial goat shoved out of the Rep community to carry Bush's "sin") you can bet that they'll be targeting those weaknesses and pulling in disaffected Dems.

    Given the likely economic climate of the next four years, there'll be even more unemployed and alienated blue collar workers looking for answers...and the Reps will have palmed off responsibility for that particular can of worms on to the Dems.

    So, in the wash-up to the election, wise party leaders would work hard to heal the divisions in the Dems. I guess we'll get to see how much wisdom there is to go around. More Clinton and less Brazile/Dean, would be a good start - but that's as likely as...as...as a US universal health care plan.

    Parent

    "13 days to go, and it appears to be (none / 0) (#2)
    by tigercourse on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:29:12 AM EST
    over in the Presidential race." Also, the Sun is hot.

    I watched some CNN and MSNBC last night and couldn't believe how they were trying to pretend that there was any life left in this horse race. It must take a huge amount of effort to maintain that artifice.

    "That's Entertainment" (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by cal1942 on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:46:39 AM EST
    Tell the folks it's all over and they'll stop watching.

    Entertainment is what today's media is all about.

    A war in Iraq = high ratings, higher revenue for news.

    Talk about tax policy = interview Joe the Plumber, far more entertaining than interviewing an actual expert tax analyst like Bob McIntyre.

    Keep 'em entertained and dumb.

    Parent

    Interestingly, Fox is not falling for it (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:51:46 AM EST
    as I was surfing around.  Once again, weirdly, Fox seems to be the network calling it as it is.  Lots of GOP commentators talking about it's over, so the need is to work downticket, rebuild for 2012, etc.

    Up is down again with the media this year.

    Parent

    After a discussion here yesterday (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by CST on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:00:56 AM EST
    I decided to brave O'Reilly for another 5 minutes.  He was actually explaining to Newt that the "socialist" card isn't working and the American people aren't buying it, so they gotta come up with something else.

    I feel like he's kinda like the president of Iran.  Very rational and intelligent, right up until the point he becomes a complete nut-bag over some random topic that sets him off.

    Parent

    Hahaha! (none / 0) (#49)
    by lilburro on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:02:24 AM EST
    I would love to hear O'Reilly's reaction to being compared to the President of Iran.  Seems apt to me.

    Parent
    Well, I won't surf there (none / 0) (#53)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:11:07 AM EST
    in O'Reilly's hour.  That was brave of you. :-)

    Parent
    It may make sense for FOX to declare it over ... (none / 0) (#70)
    by cymro on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:03:43 PM EST
    ... if they think hard-core Republicans will still vote anyway. They may succeed in reducing Obama's vote by promoting that line.

    Parent
    'X' days left to go... (none / 0) (#5)
    by lepidus on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:46:09 AM EST
    and it appears to be over in the presidential race.

    I think you should end all of your posts like this for the next week and a half.

    for example:

    "Go Florida! This is an open thread and it appears to be over in the presidential race."

    Dewey wins! (none / 0) (#7)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:49:14 AM EST
    Seems the Dewey strategy works if you have a minor international financial crisis to help you.

    If only Thomas E. had thought of that!

    ;)

    Dewey didn't have SurveyUSA (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by andgarden on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:52:15 AM EST
    and Rasmussen.

    Parent
    "...it appears to be over... (none / 0) (#8)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:49:49 AM EST
    ...in the Presidential race."  Appears to be?  I thought you called it a long time ago.  You're not hedging your bets, are you?

    Heh. (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by brodie on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:16:25 AM EST
    Caught that one too.  

    Moi, I would have liked to have put this one to bed weeks ago, along with Ed Rollins and James Carville.  They're probably right and Obama should win in the 5-7 pt range, but some of us are still plenty nervous about the usual Repub election shenanigans -- anecdotally being reported by Thom Hartmann and on Amy Goodman's show -- and so we're assuming the Rs will go forward aggressively with their various schemes at vote rigging/suppression as they attempt to manufacture a narrow EV rather than PV victory.

    I'll call this one for Obama when I see the major networks call it for him, definitively, and McCain himself steps before the cameras to formally concede the race leaving no doubt in anyone's mind that it's over.

    Parent

    As I've said before... (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:24:31 AM EST
    ...it will be over in my eyes when I wake up on 11/5 and find that Obama is the President-elect.  

    Parent
    I'm not going to sleep (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by lilburro on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:41:08 AM EST
    until I find out he is the President-Elect!

    Parent
    Well... (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:46:58 AM EST
    ...I'm old and I need my beauty sleep.  Especially since I will be celebrating my birthday on the 6th (and hopefully an overwhelming Democratic victory).

    Parent
    Hopefully it will be (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by lilburro on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:04:59 AM EST
    a very happy 6th for you.  And hopefully we won't have to lose much sleep before we know Obama is President-Elect.

    Parent
    Thanks... (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:44:00 AM EST
    ...I hope so too.  Any year that I'm still above ground is reason to celebrate--and sending the GOP to the sidelines would be icing on the cake.

    Parent
    ya (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by connecticut yankee on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:27:11 AM EST
    When McCain is blubbering on camera about his "wunnerful wife" and the old college try, then I'll celebrate.

    Then across the internet, for a solid 24 hours, the demoralized republican trolls will unplug their monitors and we will have peace in our time.

    Parent

    Dewey Wins! (none / 0) (#9)
    by pluege on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 09:50:19 AM EST
    chickens, hatching, something about counting...

    Wasn't 1948 the race (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by brodie on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:19:49 AM EST
    where the major polling outfit (or the only major one) stopped polling several weeks before the election because they thought it was all over?   Quite a different polling situation today.

    Parent
    Yes, you recall that correctly. (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:53:55 AM EST
    On the other hand, now what we've got instead of silence is a lot of polling noise to the point of wanting to tune it all out as just as confusing.  That's not necessarily better.

    Parent
    Yes, yes, Obama-Biden (none / 0) (#12)
    by wurman on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:00:48 AM EST
    Consistently over 50 percent in the opinion polls & 10 or more points ahead & campaigning in VA, NC, FL, & CO.

    Now, tell me why we have to wait until January for this incomprehensible nightmare to end!

    I've bought sound-stop earplugs in order to avoid hearing one more ex cathedra utterance by that blithering imbecile who lives in the White House. Now that Sen. Obama is soooooo far ahead, I wish, I wish that all the Democratic candidates on any ballot would take up a mantra:
    George W. Bush is the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

    New SUSA in Wisconsin (none / 0) (#58)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:28:23 AM EST
    has the margin at 8 points.  But as usual, the difficulty is in the definitions not given.  I.e., "Obama leads in Madison" -- well, duh -- but "is tied in Milwaukee."

    If Obama really is tied in Milwaukee, the city, that spells trouble for Dems, as it's a majority-minority city and the most massive blue bloc by far, accounting for most of the state's Dem votes.  

    So this probably means Milwaukee, the county . . . or maybe Milwaukee, the SMSA aka metropolitan area . . . as the city is ringed by burbs including some of the reddest in the country.  But, it's unclear.  

    Obama is almost at 90% on intrade. (none / 0) (#65)
    by ThatOneVoter on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:44:06 AM EST


    Dublin bookie is already paying off (none / 0) (#67)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 11:52:21 AM EST
    on Obama bets.

    Parent
    prediction revision (none / 0) (#69)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 12:34:46 PM EST
    in August I predicted on this site an 8 point victory as a minimum.  I think i need to change that to 10-12. I also predicted a 350 delegate count which i stand by.

    The only question is how low in the sewer will McCain go and does he care a rats arse about losing gracefully?  Honor and Country First were his platforms, history will not be kind when it assesses both relative to his campaign.

    How much do we really remember (none / 0) (#77)
    by Fabian on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:56:39 PM EST
    about campaigns?  Aside from a few notable television ads or anecdotes, the only thing we remember is who won or lost - not how "honorable" the contenders were.

    Come to think of it, the things I remember most are the really stoopid mistakes candidates made and a few highly effective, yet nasty ads.  (Considering how many nasty ads there are, that's not saying much.)

    Parent

    you are probably right (none / 0) (#78)
    by Jlvngstn on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 02:06:28 PM EST
    but I think with him still being a sitting member of the senate and the damage he did to his party and the ugliness of the campaign it will carry.  But it did not carry with any other candidate that I can think of so it may be stupid speculation.....

    Parent
    IBD/TIPP update is turning (none / 0) (#80)
    by Cream City on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 02:11:46 PM EST
    oddly since yesterday's results stated above.

    IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten

    Posted Wednesday, October 22, 2008

    Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.



    So is (5.00 / 1) (#84)
    by andrys on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:11:30 PM EST
    AP's polling.

      Only thing I can figure is that the tighter polls are not taking into consideration enough the voluminous new registrations which are something like 85% Democrat -- and maybe they're not including cell phone calls, which would hit the younger.

    Parent

    AP article says the pollers made (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by oculus on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 05:22:05 PM EST
    calls at random to cell phone nos.

    Parent
    Thanks, Oculus (none / 0) (#100)
    by andrys on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 07:37:43 PM EST
    Their methodologies are all so different, the one lesson we learn is Vote!

    Parent
    AP poll (none / 0) (#90)
    by Oceandweller on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 04:29:32 PM EST
    Apparently race sotight; each candidate are but 1.0 apart. I s there a statistixal explaination ?

    The Poll - 10/22: The Number Is 10 | 103 comments (103 topical)

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