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How Voter Suppression Works

Georgia 10 has a must read piece at Daily Kos that describes how it is done. Republicans have always concentrated on suppressing votes (causing long voter lines is also a classic technique), not on doing the virtually impossible - cheating on the vote count.

Some well meaning folks want to follow the red herring - crying "fraud!" in the vote count. The problem is not in the vote count - it is in denying the vote. Keeping eyes on the ball of voter suppression is the real battle for clean and fair elections - not silly Diebold conspiracy theories.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    One can't be worried about both? (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Dadler on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 07:04:03 PM EST
    Obviously we must deal with the suppression realites, and mitigate them as much as possible.  I would never argue otherwise.  I am simply arguing that with the insecurities and privately controlled nature of this voting software and equipment, well, come on, you know what I'm saying.  During the tech boom, I had this feeling, it's all an illusion, bad times ahead.  During the housing boom (even after we made a bundle selling our pad near the peak), same feeling, this is all going to crash soon.  With this voting tech issue, I have the same worrisome inclination.  Call me paranoid.

    It is basketball season yet?

    Brennan Center finds Electronic Voting a problem (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:14:31 PM EST
    NYU's School of Law Brennan Center for Justice has released three reports about the fallability/ hackability of Electronic Voting Equipment (Touch Screen/DREs and Optical Scan systems):

    In 2006, the Brennan Center released two comprehensive, empirical analyses of electronic voting systems in the United States, The Machinery of Democracy: Protecting Elections in an Electronic World and The Machinery of Democracy: Voting System Security, Accessibility, Usability, and Cost.

    The Brennan Center continued its study of electronic voting security in Post-Election Audits: Restoring Trust in Elections.

    Since the Brennan Center initiated its study of electronic voting, it has been called upon to provide expert testimony before Congress and to assist election officials in developing procedures that promote secure and reliable voting systems.

    *The reports can be downloaded as PDFs if you click on the above link. You have to see it (and read it) to believe it.

    Parent

    In Ohio in 2004, for example, (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Exeter on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:27:05 PM EST
    It wasn't the "cheating" that cost Kerry that state the election it was the numerous four hour+ lines in key democratic precincts accross the state.  If everyone that showed up to vote had actually voted, there is no doubt in my mind that Kerry would have won.

    I saw the same thing in PA (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by CST on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:45:50 PM EST
    And I know a number of people who waited in line for hours, and then had sh!t to do so they left and said $crew it.

    Parent
    Inequality of Election Day Resources... (none / 0) (#27)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 01:45:28 PM EST
    is regarded as a form of election fraud. i.e. If election officials do not provide enough voting equipment in Democratic precincts on election day, we get long lines and long waits which impedes the ability to vote.

    That kind of cheating is as forbidden as tampering with the vote count.

    Parent

    BTD, what's with this statement? (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:52:49 PM EST
    Some well meaning folks want to follow the red herring - crying "fraud!" in the vote count. The problem is not in the vote count - it is in denying the vote. Keeping eyes on the ball of voter suppression is the real battle for clean and fair elections - not silly Diebold conspiracy theories.

    I wonder if you include The Brennan Center for Justice among your list of "well-meaning" but, presumably, delusional folks who concern themselves with the kind of election fraud that can be perpetrated via Electronic Voting Equipment; manufactured primarily by Diebold (now called Premier Election Solutions) and Sequoia Voting Systems.

    Do you dismiss empirical data like The Brennan Center for Justice reports, which found that Electronic Voting Equipment is susceptible to all manner of deliberate tampering and miscellaneous error?

    Do you really believe the GOP has never, and will never, exploit the myriad vulnerabilities of these voting systems?


    It's all that and more (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by Lora on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:54:47 PM EST
    Of course voter suppression is a big deal.  Who do you know (besides the GOP operatives and their brainwashed followers) thinks otherwise?

    It is foolish to imagine that the GOP won't use any and all tricks at their disposal -- including the manipulation of the easily hackable, Republican-owned, Republican-operated, Republican-programmed, and Republican-certified electronic voting and/or counting equipment.

    Voter registration huckster (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Lora on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 09:11:36 PM EST
    Nathan Sproul has been hired by MaCain-Palin.  His group was accused of being responsible for the destruction of Democratic voter registration forms in the past.

    Oh, yes -- I found it on "The BRAD BLOG."

    Who, besides Liddle? (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Lora on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 09:30:35 PM EST
    Who is telling you that it is "virtually impossible" to "cheat" on the vote count?

    What are their creds, please?

    What information do they have to back that up?

    I've only heard stuff like that from the manufacturers of the voting/counting equipment.

    It has been proven wrong now by at least 2 university teams, a Finnish computer expert, and a chimpanzee.  BTW, I think the chimp's creds are impeccable.

    See LINK:

    A New Jersey Superior Court Judge has ruled that a court-ordered Princeton University report critical of the state's Sequoia Advantage DRE (touch-screen) voting machines could be released to the public.

    The reason for the original lawsuit, the court case, the inspection and resulting report was that at least 38 Sequoia voting machines used in the February 2008 primary election in 8 counties had significant anomalies...

    "Certain county clerks, and others, noticed inconsistencies in the printed paper results reports from New Jerseys' Presidential Primary election of February 5, 2008. We have found that these were caused by two distinct design flaws or programming errors in the AVC Advantage voting machine.

    As a consequence of these flaws, voters were disenfranchised."



    Parent
    After 2004 I went to a large workshop (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by hairspray on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 11:04:13 PM EST
    put on by Bob Fritakis and a host of other expert witnesses on the election in Ohio.  There were many issues that were suspect.  Particularly interesting was the theory that only a few hundred votes had to be switched in strategic GOP districts throughout the state.  For instance, the vote totals in districts that Bush was expected to win were increased everywhere in small enough numbers so as not to call attention to them.  The GOP expected the audits to occur in the Kerry districts and so were sure they would not be found out. Since there were no random auditis of those districts, we do not know what really happened.

    After 2004 I went to a large workshop (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by hairspray on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 11:04:59 PM EST
    put on by Bob Fritakis and a host of other expert witnesses on the election in Ohio.  There were many issues that were suspect.  Particularly interesting was the theory that only a few hundred votes had to be switched in strategic GOP districts throughout the state.  For instance, the vote totals in districts that Bush was expected to win were increased everywhere in small enough numbers so as not to call attention to them.  The GOP expected the audits to occur in the Kerry districts and so were sure they would not be found out. Since there were no random auditis of those districts, we do not know what really happened.

    It doesn't take tinfoil to realize (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by MyLeftMind on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 02:06:04 AM EST
    that anyone with power and money can and will cheat to remain in power.  In this case, we have a president who is very likely a puppet of the Saudis, who have just made billions more than they would have if Saddam Hussein was still around to disrupt OPEC's illegal price manipulation agreements.  Bush and his administration are in the pocket of financial interests that wouldn't have a chance if they tried to bribe, I mean lobby good Dems like Peter DeFazio in the House and Wyden, Feingold, Cantwell and others in the Senate.  

    Will they do whatever it takes to stay in power?  No question.  Be ready for the fight after the election.


    Now I'm going to do my (5.00 / 2) (#20)
    by Fabian on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 07:38:04 AM EST
    best to recall the name of the dKos blogger who blogged his experience monitoring the 2006 election at a Cleveland precinct.

    The location was difficult to find, the light in the parking lot was out due to construction and people had to walk in an unfamiliar area in the dark.  There were problems with getting all the voting machines up and working, as well.  But what really struck me was the simple problem of finding the location in the dark after work.  Imagine not being able to find your precinct's polling station!

    So does early voting (none / 0) (#1)
    by barryluda on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:51:50 PM EST
    make voter suppression more difficult?  If so, I gather that explains why Obama has put so much emphasis on getting out the early vote.

    In Ohio early voting (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by sallywally on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:15:35 PM EST
    is by absentee ballot One guy there said these will be counted first, but that doesn't sound right to me.

    They have a paper trail, but I believe in 2004 many of them were not counted. I think because they found Bush ahead without them and there weren't enough to have eliminated his lead, or so the Repub election officials in Ohio said. So they were counted last.

    The Repubs are setting up to try and make all the early voters suspect with litigation and publicity. And the local media are buying the voter fraud sh@t, too.

    Oh yeah, and the Ohio Dem Sec of State's Web site has been hacked, in addition to phone and e-mail lines being clogged with assaultive statements and even death threats.


    Parent

    Just read the linked Kos article (none / 0) (#2)
    by barryluda on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 06:55:35 PM EST
    and it's disappointing to see that the repubs have figured out how to screw things up even with the early voting.

    Parent
    Speaking of long lines (none / 0) (#5)
    by CoralGables on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 07:40:15 PM EST
    Early voting has started in Florida and in South Florida (Obama rich territory) long lines were the norm.
     

    From the Miami Herald:

     Congressman Kendrick Meek delivered a strong message from his Miami Gardens office Monday night, outraged at long lines that in some places had people waiting up to five hours to vote.

    Meek urged elections supervisors to offer those in line the option of mail in ballots, and said more machines were needed to aide the huge crowds that turned out to vote in Miami-Dade and Broward counties Monday.

     


    From the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel:

    David Hare thought he'd get a jump on Election Day by taking advantage of early voting this morning. He got on line outside the Art Serve library on Sunrise Boulevard in Fort Lauderdale at 10:30 a.m. Nearly three hours later, he was still waiting.

    There were long lines at many of the 17 early voting locations across  Broward County. At the African American Research Library and Cultural Center near Fort Lauderdale, more than 200 people were on line when the polls opened at 10 a.m.

     

    From the Palm Beach Post:

    People trying to cast ballots on the first day of early voting faced long waits in Palm Beach County, as cars jammed roads leading to the polling places. And some would-be voters even camped out overnight.

    In Wellington, people faced waits of an hour and 15 minutes at the village's municipal complex, where poll workers directed traffic and warned undeterred voters of the long line ahead. Parked cars lined both sides of the grassy shoulder of the road.



    If it's like this now (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by lilburro on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 08:45:12 PM EST
    imagine what it will be like on election day.  

    I'm pretty concerned.  

    Parent

    What is up with Elizabeth Liddle anyway? (none / 0) (#18)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 02:31:31 AM EST
    This is from a LINK that BTD provided on 10/13/08. Mark Blumenthal wrote:

    Liddle came to believe our election "may well have been rigged," that "real and massive vote suppression" occurred in Ohio where the recount was "a sham" and the Secretary of State "should be jailed."

    So, as far as I can tell, Liddle agrees that election fraud was committed in Ohio in the '04 election, evidently by GOP operatives.

    Here's where it gets sticky: there was a large discrepancy between the exit polls and the final vote count. Liddle subsequently analysed the polling data and wrote an 18 page paper, critiquing the methodology of the exit pollsters.

    Evidently, she concluded that the original exit poll data could not prove evidence of election fraud. Based on her foregoing quotes, she appears to suggest that the real evidence of election fraud lies elsewhere.

    However, her research has been used to argue that there was NO election fraud in Ohio in '04 and the GOP didn't steal the election. To me, that seems like a misinterpretation of her research.

    I read her paper and the other texts, to the best of my ability, under time constraints. Maybe I've got it muddled. Anyone?

    Not a statistician (none / 0) (#21)
    by Lora on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 09:10:03 AM EST
    Although I have a math and science background, I don't pretend to understand much of the Liddle-USCV controversy.

    Liddle, who was a PhD candidate from Nottingham I believe, analyzed the exit poll data and thinks she found an interpretation for the Kerry shift that does not depend on fraud.  The USCV team (a group of statisticians from several universities) took apart Liddle's paper.  (See my link above.) I may be wrong about the following, but the best that I can understand it is that 1) she took a certain assumption and created a mathematical model that the data would fit into that did not support fraud as a reason -- you should analyze the data first, then see what conclusions you draw, not "conclusion first, analysis later" -- 2) her model was overly simplistic (how I'm not sure -- the reply was too technical -- she didn't take into account factors that should have been taken into account, I believe) and 3) used assumptions that were extremely unlikely in an actual voting situation.  In any case, Liddle's argument is reminiscent to me of the scientists that say there is no human-caused global warming.  There are too many statisticians with bona fide credentials (including a die-hard Republican, apparently!) that prove her wrong.

    Parent

    Liddle isn't a statistician... (none / 0) (#29)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 02:53:41 PM EST
    So, you may be as qualified as her.

    From BTD's original LINK:

    Elizabeth Liddle, [is] a 50-something mother and native of Scotland who originally trained as a classical musician and spent most of her life performing, composing and recording renaissance and baroque music.  She also studied architecture and urban design before enrolling in a PhD program in Cognitive Psychology at the University of Nottingham...  In her spare time, she wrote a children's book and developed in interest in American politics while posting on the British Labor party on DailyKos.

    I think we may be on the same page. Her focus was quite narrow (which is fine). It appears that her analysis was solely of the original '04 exit poll data and how it was construed by some other statistical analysts at the time.  

    She eventually concluded that the discrepancy between the exit poll numbers and the final vote count could be attributed to polling errors that were different from the polling errors that were proposed by other analysts, like Mitofsky et al.

    To my understanding, Liddle didn't seek to establish whether the final vote count was legitimate, in and of itself. She simply took that as a given; against which she measured the exit poll data.

    She didn't address, or rule out, other evidence of fraud by election officials: such as those she named in my comment #18.

    Parent

    Kerry (none / 0) (#23)
    by sallywally on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:06:02 PM EST
    now believes Ohio was stolen in 2004

    Parent
    Kerry now thinks OH was stolen in '04? (none / 0) (#28)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 01:54:40 PM EST
    A source, or a link, for that would be good reading.

    I wonder, what changed his mind. Aside from the massive amount of research that's emerged on the subject since '04.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#30)
    by sallywally on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 11:18:46 PM EST
    I'm embarrassed to admit it, but when I researched this it appears Mark Crispin Miller was quoted in a 2005 article saying that Kerry believed the vote had been stolen in Ohio. There was a discussion of Miller's book "Fooled Again" in the article. I can't get links to work in here, but I do have that link.

    However, in the "Rolling Stone" article about Ohio in 2004, there is this and I assume it's the real thing:

    Sen. John Kerry -- in a wide-ranging discussion of Rolling Stone's investigation -- expressed concern about Republican tactics in 2004, but stopped short of saying the election was stolen. "Can I draw a conclusion that they played tough games and clearly had an intent to reduce the level of our vote? Yes, absolutely. Can I tell you to a certainty that it made the difference in the election? I can't. There's no way for me to do that. If I could have done that, then obviously I would have found some legal recourse."

    "Kerry conceded, however, that the widespread irregularities make it impossible to know for certain that the outcome reflected the will of the voters. 'I think there are clearly states where it is questionable whether everybody's vote is being counted, whether everybody is being given the opportunity to register and to vote,' he said. 'There are clearly barriers in too many places to the ability of people to exercise their full franchise. For that to be happening in the United States of America today is disgraceful.'

    "Kerry's comments were echoed by Howard Dean..."

    So I guess Kerry is not saying that after all... unless indirectly.

    Parent

    Kerry sure parsed that to death... (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by FoxholeAtheist on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 12:03:18 AM EST
    all the better to avoid litigation, or confrontation.

    Here are my generic LINK INSTRUCTIONS:

    1. When you want to link, go to the article and copy the URL.

    2. Go back to the comment box: type in something (like the title of the article) AND highlight it.

    3. Look above the comment box: find the chain-link icon and click on it.

    4. A window will flip down above your tool bar, at the top of your computer screen. Paste the url in there - and you're good to go.

    Hope it works for you. I appreciate your posts and it's great to have links.  

    Parent
    OK, thanks! (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by sallywally on Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 10:54:02 AM EST
    Yes, he did! It did imply his feeling that the Ohio vote wasn't legitimate, though.

    I enjoy reading your comments too. I love this site and often feel like an outlier, not being an attorney, college professor, engineer or other high-level professional.

    I'm a retired writer, speechwriter, and editor from Ohio State University. English major got me nowhere until I had a high-profile boss who put me to writing.

    I'll see if I can find that link again and will try to post it.

    Parent

    I used to respect the front pagers (none / 0) (#19)
    by Fabian on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 07:28:46 AM EST
    that ended when they apparently were given an assignment to write an essay on Why Hillary Lost.  I didn't read all of those essays, but of the ones I did read, only Hunter didn't follow that narrative.  (A proper post mortem would have been a full examination of the outcome of all of the campaigns.)

    dday (none / 0) (#22)
    by lilburro on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 11:26:10 AM EST
    over at digby's blog wrote a very scary post today about Pennsylvania and McCain's weird strategy.  The state Republicans are crying foul about ACORN.

    What I'm mostly afraid of is that PA won't be ready for the massive numbers of people that will want to vote.  Early voting turnout has been incredible in Florida, for instance.  How long will people have to wait in PA on Nov 4th?

    Long lines and long waits in Fl n/t (none / 0) (#24)
    by sallywally on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:07:54 PM EST
    Duh (none / 0) (#26)
    by sallywally on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:21:13 PM EST
    forgot the earlier post on this.

    Parent