Suffolk Ohio Poll: Obama Leads by 9

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:34:00 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, Ohio '08 (all tags)

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In addition to the national polls cited here by Big Tent Democrat, there's a Suffolk Ohio and Missouri poll out today.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 9 in Ohio and McCain's ahead by 1 in Missouri.

I think Ohio is critical. If McCain loses there, I think he loses the election.

"If Ohio goes for Obama, it may be lights out for McCain,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "At least today, the probability of an Ohio win is supported by the high-single-digit lead in the statewide poll coupled with the Perry County bellwether, which showed Obama leading by 4 percent.”

Joe the Plumber didn't help McCain in Ohio, his home state.

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Suffolk Ohio Poll: Obama Leads by 9 | 17 comments (17 topical)

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Chances of McCain winning and not carrying OH: (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by steviez314 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 12:47:28 PM EST

.03% (according to 538).

Seems about right. If McCain doesn't carry OH he has no path to 270. There is no way any blue Kerry state could flip to him before OH stays red.

In fact, I can see Obama carrying FL,NC,VA,CO,NM,NV, and maybe some others before he wins OH.

There just seems to be "something" about OH.

same as FL (none / 0) (#2)
by Nasarius on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:16:44 PM EST

538 doesn't have the number, but it's easy enough to see that McCain must hold on to OH and FL to have a chance. If either flips, he's finished.

I do love that 93.1% win chance on the sidebar. I never bought into the hype about Obama expanding the map, but it looks like he's actually done it. There are plausible ways for him to win even without OH and FL.


To be honest (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Socraticsilence on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:25:48 PM EST

The EV I want the most (assuming Obama is going to win anyway) is NE-2, A vote from the Heartland would symbolically crush the GOP: It becomes increasingly manic to argue that you are the party of "real americans" when Obama has an island of blue in your sea of red.


Warren Buffett is in Omaha (NE-2) (none / 0) (#5)
by steviez314 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:55:13 PM EST

Maybe he could just buy the EV there and give it to Obama as a gift.


: Extreme street money. (none / 0) (#7)
by oculus on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:13:09 PM EST

Most plausible (none / 0) (#10)
by cal1942 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:37:39 PM EST

He needs only Virginia OR Colorado to win given he holds the Kerry and Gore states.


No Republican in this century (none / 0) (#9)
by cal1942 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:34:08 PM EST

has won without carrying Ohio.

If McCain loses Ohio he can't possibly win. Obama has all the Kerry states solid. Ohio would put him over the top.

The .03% is too high. It should be zero.


: No republican in this millenium, actually. (none / 0) (#11)
by ThatOneVoter on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:40:03 PM EST

Joe The Plumber prototypical republican (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by pluege on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 01:54:24 PM EST

he's an idiot that votes against his own interests, i.e., he is a true reagan republican.

Joe (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by cal1942 on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:53:12 PM EST

Suffolk says Joe hasn't had an effect on Ohio yet says that he got McCain a little extra.

This is a disgusting commentary on our times when someone like Joe, completely ignorant of policy and issues, has an influence on ANYBODY'S vote.

The fact that the media would interview this guy, giving him a platform to dump inane, uninformed crap, is an illustration of the extreme irresponsibility of the broadcast media.

Instead of interviewing someone like Bob McIntyre about Obama's and McCain's tax proposals, they interview Joe the plumber.

That's really informing the public. Boffo job networks.

: not to mention (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by coigue on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 03:35:33 PM EST

Joe gets to lie about his situation so that it looks like Obama's plan hurts him. grrrr.

Plus... (none / 0) (#6)
by jtaylorr on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:04:37 PM EST

Rasmussen has Obama up ten(!) in Virginia.
54 - 44.

McCain can't lose any more Bush states (none / 0) (#8)
by fuzzyone on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:16:39 PM EST

Look, Obama has the Kerry states locked down plus he's got Iowa and New Mexico looks very good. That gets him to 264. That means McCain losing any one of Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado Virginia, North Carolina or Montana, all of which are in play, is game over (Nevada alone would get the dreaded 269 tie).

Pollster has Obama at better than +6 in both CO and VA with trendlines that I assume make McCain want to put his head on Palin's shoulder and cry.

Heavy irony alert (none / 0) (#12)
by scribe on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 02:52:08 PM EST

from this diary over at Orange Satan's place.

Not the poll results. The first photo. Look carefully.

When you see that, you know McPain has issues no return to Reverend Wright could fix, a blockage even Joe The Plumber couldn't clear, and ... well, you get the idea.

: Holy cow.... (none / 0) (#14)
by coigue on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 03:34:37 PM EST

another redneck for Obama.
Sheeeesh!

Chris Bowers has a nice chart (none / 0) (#16)
by fuzzyone on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 03:45:07 PM EST

of the paths to victory for Obama.

After Joe compared Obama to Sammy (none / 0) (#17)
by Socraticsilence on Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 04:45:14 PM EST

After he compared Obama to Sammy Davis Jr. (they tap dance) I think a lot of people tuned that Douche out.