Is It Over For John McCain?

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:47:21 PM EST
Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama 2008 (all tags)

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Immediately after the debate, David Gergen on CNN at first waxed on about how well John McCain did in the first 30 minutes of the debate. Then he said McCain blew it with his anger and Obama did best in the last 30 minutes. The video is here:

"It then hit the personal animosity of the advertising and then I thought McCain swerved off track...He got overemotional about it. He looked angry. And it was almost an exercise in anger management up there for him to contain himself. And Obama maintained his cool, and I thought that changed the tone of the debate and Obama won the last half hour. I thought Obama really did well on education, abortion and health care." Then the polls came in.

Later, after the poll numbers came in and the focus group had weighed in, Gergen said it's clear McCain didn't do what he needed to do tonight and he should shift to figuring out how to save Republican House and Senate seats and ending the race with his dignity intact.[More...]

He's said it's not impossible for him to win, but close to that.

CNN announced another poll saying more than 50% of the Independents watching the debate thought Obama won.

It seems unanimous among the news analysts that the Ayers attack didn't work.

I don't see how McCain turns this election around. Even a last minute attack with new grounds would fall short because so many people will have voted before election day.

Nobody, other than the conservative base, liked McCain's smirking and condescending manner tonight.

CNN's John King now puts Obama at 277 electoral votes, more than enough to win. And that's with Colorado and Florida still being toss-ups. King says McCain needs to turn a big blue state red, like PA, . But that's unlikely because PA is too blue right now -- Obama's up by 10 to 12 points there.

During a commercial break, an announcer touting CNN's upcoming election night coverage asked if there would be a recount like in 2004. They should redo that promo -- it looks more and more like it will be a blowout.

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Is It Over For John McCain? | 31 comments (31 topical)

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That is not correct J (5.00 / 0) (#2)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:50:31 PM EST

Gergen said from the first moment that Obama won the debate.

I think you have him mixed up with someone else.

Indeed, Gergen's take was precisely mine - McCain started well, tanked on the Ayers thing and was terrible the rest of the way.

It Was Bill Bennett (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by MTSINAIMAMA on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:56:26 PM EST

That blowhard. He was the first so speak and he went on and on about how well McCain did. He made a lot of facial grimaces when the other pundits said Obama had won and elucidated why. Then when all the polls came in overwhelmingly for Obama, we didn't see him anymore.

[ Parent ]

: Yup, Bennett left the set (5.00 / 2) (#20)
by MKS on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:27:20 AM EST

He had been so smug about McCain winning....and when the polling showed that to be untrue, he was nowhere to be found and there was no reason given for his absence.
John King was left sputtering. He at first said that McCain had his best performance. Then he said he did not believe the CNN poll--too many Democrats, and Independents were the key. Then Campbell Brown had the breakdown on Independents and John King said something about if that were to hold up, then Obama would do well.

[ Parent ]

I just rewatched and you are right (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by Jeralyn on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:10:52 PM EST

After Bill Bennett's silly remarks, they went to Paul Begala and then to David Gergen who said:

McCain had the best start, he excelled the 30 minutes. Obama started flat. Then McCain got over-emotional and angry, Obama maintained his cool, Obama won the last half hour, did well on abortion, education and health care.

I've corrected my post. Thanks.

[ Parent ]

McCain handled the Ayers issue in the (5.00 / 0) (#4)
by ThatOneVoter on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:52:21 PM EST

worst way. Schieffer gave McCain the clear shot to bring up Ayers, and he DID NOT. He whined about John Lewis. Only later did he mention Ayers. He came off looking like a coward, to me.

: Poor Widdle Victim Widdle Johnny McCain (5.00 / 0) (#25)
by Ellis on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 02:25:14 AM EST

McCain was pathetic. I'm sure in his melodrama soaked psyche he is the greatest victim in the history of the world. Oh, the tragedy of it all.
Yep, what John Lewis said about McCain and Palin was the worst thing McCain has ever heard in his 900 years in politics, and worse still, Obama is directly responsible for it.
Remember when Johnny Drama said Lewis was one of the wise people he'd consult about issues of great importance? And now, here's Johnny once again betrayed. Oh, the poor, poor man. It turns out the sage thinks McCain and his running mate represent a threat to this society. Amen, brother!
McCain seemed so outclassed it was almost sad. Intellectually and temperamentally Obama towers over McCain. He seems to know McCain's positions better than McCain does, since McCain laces all of his speech with banal talking points and even mischaracterizes his own programs.
It is painful for me to hear some of Obama's positions (on education, for example) but even at his worst he's much better than McCain. Many people are genuinely confused as to why McCain would have chosen someone as unqualified as Palin as his running mate. My latest theory is that she was the only person he could find who appears to less qualified to be president than McCain himself.

[ Parent ]

It's only over (5.00 / 0) (#5)
by shoulin4 on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:52:31 PM EST

for McCain if people don't get complacent and decide not to vote, thinking, "Oh, Obama will win anyway."

It was over when the economy tanked. (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Teresa on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:53:11 PM EST

There is nothing he can do.

McCain's Path to Victory (5.00 / 4) (#7)
by robrecht on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:54:30 PM EST

The only way McCain wins at this point is if he suspends his campaign and goes and pulls Osama bin Laden out of his Afghanistan cave and beats him up with his cane and then negotiates a Palestinian peace agreement on the way home. Well at least that will secure Indiana.

: Actually, the best chance for McCain is (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by ThatOneVoter on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:55:49 PM EST

if a p05no video of him with Paris Hilton turns up.

[ Parent ]

CNN finally gave that stupid (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:55:21 PM EST

projection map to Obama, eh? Obama's been over 270 for weeks now and everyone knows it. C. Todd and J. King have just been playing with it in order to build suspense and boost ratings.

Anyone bored or wanting to laugh (5.00 / 0) (#15)
by Teresa on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:37:40 PM EST

go read the live blog comments at the Guardian.

I need to go to bed but I can't quit reading their comments. Funny people and they see right through our foolish way of electing Presidents.

The comments are at the bottom. These people got up in the middle of the night to watch this.

Wow, this is great (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by lilburro on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:09:58 PM EST

these people really are diehards...

kindofgirl
Oct 16 08, 2:09am (about 16 hours ago)
Is everyone in America called Joe? Joe-the-plumber-with-his-six-pack.
McCain's vision must be like strobe lights, he blinks CONSTANTLY, no wonder he has trouble with eye contact.

I'm grumpy at work today cos I was wound up about the debates and stayed up too late...I can't even imagine how terrible I'd be today if I was watching them 3 am!!!

[ Parent ]

I want to quote some of them here but (none / 0) (#17)
by Teresa on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:40:18 PM EST

Jeralyn would have to delete them for language. This is hilarious.

[ Parent ]

My personal favorite so far: (none / 0) (#22)
by FreakyBeaky on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:37:13 AM EST

The ship is listing badly. The deck is burning. Two men are left - one with a life jacket and a rope around his waist with a helicopter hovering above him. The other man knows it is too late for him (but he has had a long and eventful life with pain, riches and admiration others can only dream of). He looks up at the other man and hails abuse at him.

[ Parent ]

: Mine... (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by Teresa on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:53:57 AM EST

When Obama smiles at one of McCain's attacks, he looks like he's holding all the cards. When McCain does the same back, he looks like a vampire in denial about his need for fresh blood.

Ooh, McCain took off his softer gloves to reveal tinfoil knuckle dusters.

Ack, he's got the Ohio undecided men more excited than a fistful of Viagra
And one I can't make copy..."I'm a little worried about all this talk about a nude erect*on". I put the * in in case it's the filters.

[ Parent ]

It's been over for a while (5.00 / 1) (#16)
by flyerhawk on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:39:54 PM EST

but tonight was the final nail in the coffin.

When McCain said "I don't care about some washed up terrorist. But I want to know Obama's association with him" he gave the game away on national television.

Their responses on Roe were very telling, IMO.

We can now expect that the "We can't have single party rule" meme to gain full steam. I suspect that this will be the final McCain push.

the public's going to get 3 impressions (5.00 / 0) (#18)
by Howard Zinn on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:59:00 PM EST

from the debate. McCain attacked. Obama remained composed and brought things back to the issues. McCain made some odd expressions.

By the end, Obama just outlasted McCain, who stumbled and stammered his way through several answers. While McCain charged, head-on, Obama parried and jabbed.

In order to have a chance, McCain needed there to be only one impression on the public -- that he's far more qualified and has much better judgment than Obama. It needed to be resounding. It wasn't.

Stick a Fork in McCain. He's Done. (5.00 / 0) (#19)
by No Blood for Hubris on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:07:16 AM EST

McCain tried his best.
Sounded the best so far.

But -- cripes.

He still sounded awful. And then, he had to defend picking Palin.

Time to work on a veto-proof majority.

GET INVOLVED. Make sure it's over Nov. 4th (5.00 / 0) (#21)
by EddieInCA on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:29:40 AM EST

If you have any time to spare in the next three weeks, sign up at Obama's website and help out in the GOTV effort locally. We need help in all fifty states. We need:

People to make calls.
People to send texts & emails.
People to drive people to the polls.
People to do mailings.
People to help in the offices (administration, filing, answering phones, making copies, etc).

Do it. It will be worth it.

whatever dignity mccain (5.00 / 0) (#23)
by cpinva on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 12:46:13 AM EST

had left, dissipated the moment he picked gov. palin as his running mate. from that point, it was merely a question of how long it would take for his campaign to disolve in utter chaos.

john mccain (none / 0) (#1)
by gina51 on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:49:10 PM EST

blink blink blink did anyone actually count how many times he blinked?

In a word: yes. (none / 0) (#3)
by andgarden on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 10:51:20 PM EST

Is Obama counting on Ohio? (none / 0) (#11)
by imhotep on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:10:24 PM EST

It's going to be a mess again. The Repukes are challenging 200K new registrations.

Registered Dems in one county in Florida are getting calls telling them to phone in their vote for Obama.

: The Florida (5.00 / 0) (#13)
by cal1942 on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:23:22 PM EST

phone calls sound familiar, similar to the misinformatuion spread about overdue utility bills, precinct moved, wrong election day, etc.
There ought to be a very thorough criminal investigation launched of every one of these incidents. Republicans have always been absolutely shameless in the use of these tactics. It's an old story that predates the W years. Filthy tactics are part of their DNA.

[ Parent ]
: It's a bit more complex than that (none / 0) (#14)
by Cream City on Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 11:24:59 PM EST

from several stories I've read in the Plain Dealer and other local media there. It was a GOP suit, but the courts have ordered the (Dem) Secretary of State to abide by the law -- and it looks like correctly so, as it is the law that we've been through in my state and others: to provide master lists to counties to be able to do their duty to check registrations against it.
And only in court did it finally come out from the SoS that there are at least 200,000 problematic registrations -- note, at least, as she still doesn't have an exact count. She is supposed to have it this Friday but is asking for Monday -- and maybe more delays.
And some absentee ballots already have gone out. And I read of even more complications, but the bottom line, from what I can tell, is that there may be hundreds of thousands of Ohio provisional ballots. And it seems those are not counted on election day, not until addresses can be double-checked later. (I've seen it done here with mail-back postcards.)
That would seem to mean that if it's close, there may be no final count on election night for Ohio? Or that it could change afterward, as provisional ballots are verified? Or that it could be another litigated election?
Frankly, as I read through all the stories, I have yet to see a reasonable explanation as to why the Ohio SoS has handled this as she has done. It's an evolving story, and maybe there is a defense -- but then, a lot of states did a lot of unnecessary and costly work to abide by the law.

[ Parent ]

Is it over for Mcain? (none / 0) (#27)
by caesar on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:28:28 AM EST

Not really, Mccain may still be offered a spot in an Obama Cabinet.

By the way... if it looks as if I'm "giddy, cocky, or complacent" that I think Obama will win, it's because I am CONFIDENT, OPTIMISTIC, and ENTHUSIASTIC for this election. I wonder if Mccain supporters could say the same thing.

: Oh yes, they can. (none / 0) (#32)
by doru001 on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 08:26:07 AM EST

There is unreasonable optimism in the Republican Party. Their candidates are not convincing, one is old and out of touch, the other unprepared. Here is an explanation:
Republicans are going to steal this election. See:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzY2tnwExs
An explanation for the differences between exit polls and vote results will be:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html
If the election is stolen,then it is not stolen by Palin. She is, on the other hand, easy to manipulate. Same for McCain.

[ Parent ]

Bradley Effect (none / 0) (#28)
by caesar on Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 11:30:16 AM EST

If Mccain voters are banking on the Bradley effect to help them win this election, then your strategy is flawed. What got you in this precarious position in the first place?

: Bradley (none / 0) (#31)
by doru001 on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 08:25:15 AM EST

There is unreasonable optimism in the Republican Party. Their candidates are not convincing, one is old and out of touch, the other unprepared. Here is an explanation:
Republicans are going to steal this election. See:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzY2tnwExs
An explanation for the differences between exit polls and vote results will be:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html
If the election is stolen,then it is not stolen by Palin. She is, on the other hand, easy to manipulate. Same for McCain.

[ Parent ]

An Explanation (none / 0) (#30)
by doru001 on Fri Oct 17, 2008 at 08:24:35 AM EST

There is unreasonable optimism in the Republican Party. Their candidates are not convincing, one is old and out of touch, the other unprepared. Here is an explanation:

Republicans are going to steal this election. See:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzY2tnwExs
An explanation for the differences between exit polls and vote results will be:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html

If the election is stolen,then it is not stolen by Palin. She is, on the other hand, easy to manipulate. Same for McCain.