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Friday Open Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Blog Related
Posted on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:39:05 AM EST
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Big Tent Democrat is in court today and I'm also busy at work. How about if readers take over today? Here's an open thread.

< Alaska Supreme Court Won't Block TrooperGate Report | Same-Sex Marriage Is a Right Under CT Constitution >

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    Friday Open Thread | 135 comments (135 topical)

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    There's a breaking news headline on NYTimes (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by akaEloise on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:46:27 AM EST
    about the Connecticut State Supreme Court overturning the state ban on same-sex marriage.  

    So I see (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:48:24 AM EST
    Very good news, and perhaps this time it won't dominate the news for a week.

    [ Parent ]
    The economy (5.00 / 0) (#43)
    by mmc9431 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:24:48 AM EST
    I don't think the Republican's gay baiting or even Bin Laden could change the headlines right now. No one cares about anything other than if they're still going to have a roof over their head and a job to go to next year.

    [ Parent ]
    Bin Laden could change the race (none / 0) (#47)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:29:12 AM EST
    No one else, though.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh (5.00 / 0) (#50)
    by Steve M on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:30:51 AM EST
    Gonna take more than just a video, though!

    [ Parent ]
    I think that (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by liminal on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:49:58 AM EST
    at this point, McCain would have to personally ambush and wrestle Bin Laden to the ground and then summarily execute him on live television to change the dynamic of the race.

    [ Parent ]
    Naah. If he did that, (5.00 / 2) (#62)
    by scribe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:51:32 AM EST
    everyone would say "great!  Now we can concentrate on the economy!"


    [ Parent ]
    He'd still lose. (none / 0) (#63)
    by tigercourse on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:52:12 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I think it would need to be ... (none / 0) (#64)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:54:03 AM EST
    bigger than Bin Laden.

    Something like a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan.

    It would need to be an FP crisis that dwarfs the economic one for a more than a few days.

    That one would do that.

    [ Parent ]

    Only if. . . (none / 0) (#60)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:51:08 AM EST
    he offers to bail out Iceland.

    People more interested in bread than circuses at the moment, I think.

    [ Parent ]

    It's a pity ... (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:49:50 AM EST
    that the courts have to do what the politicians are afraid to.

    Of course, with civil rights that's often been the case.

    [ Parent ]

    It is indeed a pity. (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by Pegasus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:15:35 AM EST
    Still... 3 down, 47 to go.  Every state adopting the rule contributes a little more weight on that side of the scale, and eventually the minority rule becomes the majority one.  And at that point, maybe SCOTUS just flips the switch if the pols haven't yet.

    So tiny incremental wins still make me smile.

    [ Parent ]

    Neither Obama nor Biden (none / 0) (#38)
    by dutchfox on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:22:22 AM EST
    support marriage parity for same-sex couples.

    [ Parent ]
    It's just plain wrong too (none / 0) (#93)
    by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:00:28 PM EST
    Elected officials, the legislature, should be passing laws.  But I suppose they're all like Congress, to chicken-sheet to do anything.  A shame indeed.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh man... (5.00 / 10) (#20)
    by Addison on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:02:19 AM EST
    Big Tent Democrat is in court today

    What did he do this time?

    Heh! (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:06:08 AM EST
    I bet it was bold.

    [ Parent ]
    Manna from Heaven? Not so fast (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Saul on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:05:23 AM EST
    Manna from Heaven?  Not so fast

    Obama could be facing a big problem.  It's the economy.  I know that the bad economy was like manna from heaven for Obama.  Before the economy fiasco the race between Mcain and Obama was very close.  Now Obama has a big lead because it just natural to associate the collapse of the economy to the president and his party because it happened during their watch.  Most economist and experts that have been interviewed on TV on why we are having this economic fiasco say it is rudimentary on the bad extension of credit.  Giving too much credit to those that should have never gotten it, in particular the sub prime mortgage fiasco.  This credit theory had a domino effect not just on mortgage industry but it infected the rest of the economic world according to these experts.   So why would this be a problem for Obama?  

    Here is what the right is saying.

    Obama is at the fountain head of the collapse.  His association with Ayers and ACORN is at the root of how the extension of the bad credit situation all got started.  This was not something that happened just 30 years ago as Obama states, but most recent up to 2002 with Obama on the board with Ayers.  As a community organizer, Obama was training leaders for ACORN and was one of their legal minds.  ACORN wanted banks to give out more housing loans to people who did not really qualified for them.  ACORN was successful in pressuring the banks to get them to do this.  ACORN also was successful in pressuring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start this subprime mortgage.  Long story short.  ACORN with the help of Obama was directly responsible for starting this subprime loan fiasco. They also say that the Clinton administration supported this program which was controlled at that time by Henry Cisneros.

    You can see how this could spell trouble for Obama. It doesn't matter how good the facts are as long as it has an effect on those that have not decided how they will vote.    People are asking how we got into this situation.  The right is going to bring this up now very strongly in TV ads IMO. Why because, it's all about the economy which is the only thing people are worried about at the present time.

    How much trouble could this be for Obama?

    Obama needs to prepare for this onslaught.  The same manna from heaven that is helping Obama could very well be the manna that turns this election back to being a very close race again.  

    You really think this can be hung on ACORN? (5.00 / 0) (#32)
    by Pegasus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:17:47 AM EST
    Good luck with that.  "This wouldn't have happened if all those minorities hadn't been given mortgages" doesn't seem like a winner to me.  Does it seem like one to you?

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe (none / 0) (#36)
    by Saul on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:21:20 AM EST
    It's not what we think, more political savvy people, it what the right wants to convey out here to the average Joe who has not time to do any type of investigation whether its true or not.

    [ Parent ]
    Really, it doesn't matter. Obama will win. (5.00 / 0) (#40)
    by tigercourse on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:23:06 AM EST
    By a very big margin. That's no longer in question. I hope he and every advisor he knows is working on what to do the day after he's elected.

    [ Parent ]
    Again, you REALLY think that's a winner? (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Pegasus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:24:16 AM EST
    That is, you think a significant number of people will scapegoat minority borrowers before they'll scapegoat Wall Street?  I think the answer is no, and I don't think that answer is controversial.

    [ Parent ]
    The only people who will (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by eric on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:54:41 AM EST
    buy this silly story are those that think Obama is a socialist and wouldn't vote for him anyway.  People that conceive of and believe in these crazy theories are the same people that believed that Clinton was a socialist and that he had Vince Foster killed.

    This is because the story is preposterous.  I have no doubt that this "Fannie & Freddie loans to minorities" story is going to thrive amongst the wing-nuts.  It just isn't going past that.  Prepare to hear about it for a long time on right-wing radio, however.

    [ Parent ]

    Krugman (none / 0) (#118)
    by eric on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:51:13 PM EST
    also brings up Foster today as he is thinking about how the right wing is melting down.

    [ Parent ]
    ha (none / 0) (#26)
    by connecticut yankee on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:09:32 AM EST
    Na I don't think Obama should worry, he's running against McCain after all.

    I have yet to see a single McCain bumper sticker in a state that loved the "W" ones.  People just don't like McCain.

    [ Parent ]

    "W" came across as a nice guy (5.00 / 0) (#34)
    by Fabian on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:20:52 AM EST
    to a lot of people compared to Gore's somewhat awkward and aloof persona.  (Our Media at work...)

    So people took to GWB because they thought he wasn't some Politician In Washington.  It worked for Bill Clinton too.  People like the Outsiders and Mavericks more than the people they see as part of the problem.

    In reality, it's policies, not personalities that count but most people don't feel a personal connection to policies, so personality wins.  

    [ Parent ]

    That's where the media really come in (none / 0) (#131)
    by sallywally on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:10:38 PM EST
    since they built up this whole "nice guy" meme about Bush and savaged Gore so badly.

    Still, Gore won - not only the popular vote but eventually the consortium of news organizations said that by any recount of the whole state, counting chads, not counting chads, etc., etc., Gore would have won Florida.

    So the exit polls were right all along.

    [ Parent ]

    The GOP is really stretching that. (none / 0) (#84)
    by hairspray on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:35:14 PM EST
    Frankly I don't see how they will get any traction on that except from the hard core racists and they were never going to vote for Obama anyway.  OTOH the Freddie and Fannie Mae stories do have some legitimacy in that the Democrats were not as pro active as they should have been there.  Even so the GOP was in power.  Last night Jon Stewart did clips on both the candidates saying that they had written to Paulson several years ago about the financial picture. Then Stewart said "Who you gonna vote for?  The one who wrote the letter first?"  and went on to joke about the effectiveness of a letter or two.  The public feels pretty much the same way.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama did win against Citibank (none / 0) (#87)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:47:36 PM EST
    for one, in pressuring it to open up mortgages.  His name is on some records, so that extent, it could be a problem.  It takes some explaining, though.

    [ Parent ]
    Not a chance (none / 0) (#97)
    by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:07:54 PM EST
    No one is paying any attention to ACORN or Ayers.  Everyone is watching their money disappear down a black hole, never to return again.  They aren't listening to the nuts mumbling about someone who tried to bomb the Pentagon 40 years ago.  They're much to focused on their money.

    Having said that, the democrats might, and I stress might, get blamed for pushing for low income people to get housing loans and for encouraging Freddie and Fannie to give questionable loans to people with poor, or no, credit ratings so that they could ''buy" (more like rent since they had nothing invested in the houses).  There was a huge push by Bush, and the democrats, to get more poor minorities into homes.  Freddie and Fannie were assured that they had nothing to lose, the feds had their back.  Hence, thousands of sub prime mortgages, backed by Freddie and Fannie and our government.  THAT might, might, might, be pinned on democrats but Bush pushed it too.  Heck, he bragged about how many poor minorities he had put into homes.  What he failed to add was ''homes that they couldn't begin to afford, and will come crashing down on them and us"!  So democrats could turn right around and blame that on Bush and the republicans which is why I think the republicans will not go down that road.  

    [ Parent ]

    The point is about the economy (none / 0) (#106)
    by Saul on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:20:32 PM EST
    Yes no one is talking about Ayers per se, but they are talking about the economy and anyone that could be held responsible for its decline.  That why the republicans want to use Ayers and Acorn and Obama's role as responsible for getting the prime loan fiasco going.

    [ Parent ]
    What do Ayers and Acorn have to do with the (none / 0) (#135)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:25:51 PM EST
    Economy?  Not much that I can see.  

    [ Parent ]
    You missed the whole republican point (none / 0) (#136)
    by Saul on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 10:00:56 AM EST
    that I said they were maiking in my post.    ECONOMIC and FINANCIAL  EXPERTS  TODAY  in this months  interviews say that the ROOT of the economic collapse is due to the extension of so much bad credit and in particular the creation of the sub prime mortgage rates that they say started the collapse. This infected other financial industries through out  the world they say which is where we are today.    The connection to all this is that they say that Acorn was rudimentary responsible in pressuring the banks and later Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in starting these sub prime loans which in turn according to the present economist is why the economy began is downfall.  Ayers and Obama helped Acorn organized the  leaders to accomplish this goal. Therefore the conclusion is that Acorn, Ayers and Obama are at the fountainhead of the economic collapse.  That is what the right is saying.

    [ Parent ]
    How to "save" the economy (5.00 / 2) (#67)
    by Dadler on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:57:30 AM EST
    Since money only has value because people believe it does, the simple truth is that economic recovery rests almost entirely on whether we, as a society and a civilization, will choose to revalue money in our own collective minds.  The wealth paradigm has so infested the value of money -- getting rich quickly at the expense of others and the society at large (the environment included -- that the socially stabilizing value potential of money has eroded to a critical point.  Indeeed, the true "crash" we all fear is when that stabilizing effect breaks apart comopletely.  It is only when we decide as a nation, as a world, that money exists, first and foremost, above and beyond individual wealth potential, to more easily and effectively promote the general welfare and prosperity, that things will change.  We've had no ceiling on wealth for so long that the floor has all but disintegrated.

    And since, again, it is merely faith that holds up any currency, it is the values we cherish (kindness, peace, generoisty, fairness, love), which genuinely (as in factually, and not in some hairy-fairy wishful way, but for real) control what course the economy will take.

    Comprehensive and general prosperity can certainly co-exist with wealth and free markets.  It's all what we choose to believe is possible.  And what we are willing to sacrifice or contribute to make it possible.

    More like Peter Pan and Tinkerbell (none / 0) (#98)
    by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:09:27 PM EST
    Than all those high faluting economists!  

    We need to think positive thoughts, clap our hands, and like Tinkerbell, the economy will come back.  

    Worth a try.  Anything's worth a try at this point.

    [ Parent ]

    The most important story today (5.00 / 0) (#73)
    by TomStewart on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:10:29 PM EST
    Is Mother's Cookies filing for bankruptcy, and ceasing production, at least here in the US. Where am I going to get my Circus Animal cookies now?

    This is much more important than Wall Street or Obama.

    Oh no! (none / 0) (#79)
    by Democratic Cat on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:22:59 PM EST
    Their chocolate chip cookies are the best.  And those ones with coconut....

    [ Parent ]
    What will Obama do (none / 0) (#130)
    by TomStewart on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 07:06:33 PM EST
    to bring back the pink ones with the sprinkles?

    John McCain HATES cookies!

    [ Parent ]

    Well, you could (none / 0) (#80)
    by liminal on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:23:52 PM EST
    - buy some cookie cutters and make your own?  

    I agree, that's a blow.  I'll miss the boxes, with the little string to carry them!

    [ Parent ]

    While everyone is obsessing over the market (5.00 / 0) (#74)
    by scribe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:11:16 PM EST
    they should take a note from Anthony Quinn in Zorba the Greek, and dance.  What the h*ll, right?

    Or watch some good movies.

    Here's a list of films about the last Great Depression, so you can get all up to speed on how to deal with this one.

    Road to Perdition moves to the top of my list, given the recent demise of the great Paul Newman and this having been his next-to-last role (he voiced "Doc Hudson" in Cars.).

    Well, if America is so much in debt (none / 0) (#76)
    by ruffian on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:15:58 PM EST
    we must have a lot of toys to play with. The real opiate of the masses.

    [ Parent ]
    Suprised they didn't ... (none / 0) (#77)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:22:43 PM EST
    include SULLIVAN'S TRAVELS.

    But, otherwise, quite a good list of films.  

    I've been thinking about a lot of those films in the last few weeks.

    I was talking to some friends a few months back about how BONNIE AND CLYDE has lost much of its reputation in recent years.  We wondered if it might be due to the underlying political content.  I bet that will change.

    [ Parent ]

    Excellent list. (none / 0) (#107)
    by jeffinalabama on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:23:27 PM EST
    I've been told my contract (as well as several other folks') are now terminal contracts, so May 15 is unemployment...

    I'm seriously considering expat life for a few years. Have family in SA that would take me in...

    [ Parent ]

    Not much to add today (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:44:40 AM EST
    Phillies won last night, and the polling news is mostly very good.

    Stock market thought.... (none / 0) (#3)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:48:22 AM EST
    with all that selling yesterday, who was doing all the buying?

    Call me crazy (I am)...but is the whole bloody crisis being manufactured? Have Joe and Jane blow been conned into selling all their stocks at a loss so they can be scooped up by fatcats at a discount?  Add that to the treasury throwing money at fatcat corporations...hmmm, a  very very nice score all around.

    The whole f*cking thing smells...I'll tell ya that much.

    Some are automatic buys (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by votermom on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:00:01 AM EST
    via computer, I think. (Price goes below x, buy. Goes above y, sell).

    [ Parent ]
    Probably right... (5.00 / 0) (#71)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:59:41 AM EST
    but somebody has to set the parameters of the computer program.

    We could be witnessing one of the biggest, boldest confidence scams in the history of humanity!

    [ Parent ]

    Don't we wish! (none / 0) (#99)
    by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:10:00 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    well GE (none / 0) (#7)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:51:55 AM EST
    and bank of america are steals today. I also love the steel stocks at these prices.  China and India are on hold for bldg so to speak and late next year a steel purchase or 3 will look very good. I like to buy in these times, you get the best deals!

    [ Parent ]
    Think Big Brother.... (none / 0) (#13)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:59:49 AM EST
    will allow GM to go under?  They look to be in especially bad shape, and no one I know is buying any cars anytime soon.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes ... (5.00 / 0) (#17)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:00:46 AM EST
    if they can crush the unions in the process.

    [ Parent ]
    we are on the hook for the pensions (5.00 / 0) (#41)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:23:17 AM EST
    so letting it go under is not in our best interest financially.  


    [ Parent ]
    F*ck financially my friend.... (none / 0) (#68)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:57:46 AM EST
    I'm talking right and wrong:)

    Besides, I'd rather chip in to pay off mis-managed pensions than giving another subdidy to GM to mis-manage and lose, and see them with their hand out again in 2 years.

    [ Parent ]

    lol (none / 0) (#102)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:15:03 PM EST
    darned if we do darned if we don't.  I am happy most of my decisions are whether or not I can afford organic products in the slowdown.  For many of the car workers and companies that support the industries, they have much more significant worries.  I really feel awful for those laid off already and those that are going to be downsized in the coming months.  I really don't care who is to blame for any of the crisis at this point which makes me kinda like Palin with her stance on the causes of global warming.  Which of course i belittle her for.  I hate being a hypocrite but alas here I am...........

    [ Parent ]
    Check around and see if (none / 0) (#109)
    by nycstray on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:52:02 PM EST
    there's a CSA close to you. I'm with a CSA and also buy meat and poultry direct from farmers. A spare freezer or 2 and canning equipment and I'm set until next harvest. :)

    [ Parent ]
    thanks (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:46:58 PM EST
    there are a couple in Wisconsin.  I remember my parents buying a meat in tennessee and driving it back to put in the deep freezer.  We don't each much meat at home but my parents still do and I am spending a ton of dough buying groceries for them and their foster kids each month.  Think i will drive up to wi and take care of that!

    [ Parent ]
    Glad to help! :) (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by nycstray on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 03:19:44 PM EST
    My parents also used to do the meat buys. I started last year along with my CSA. It's so nice to never go grocery shopping. I save a ton of money this way. My side worked out to 4.26 a lb Prime Rib Roast and all! My CSA started doing poultry this year so I have many chickens in the freezer. I've started canning my own soups and veggie dishes so I have more freezer space now. Haven't been in a larger grocery store but maybe twice in the past year. Last time was for canning jars and larger containers of vinegar (cleaning) etc. Everything else is bulk bought and/or from local sources which I can pick up at the farmers market or an online source here. I work with the core group of my CSA, so I get a lot of "extras". I'm working it tomorrow and since it's a holiday weekend, I should end up with a fair amount of extras even with making a large donation to the church.

    When I found out where I was going to be living next year, first thing I did was check for farms and CSAs. One of the CSAs there also does "dry goods" and grains. It's the little things in life . .   :D

    [ Parent ]

    We're all hypocrites in one way... (none / 0) (#112)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:17:11 PM EST
    or another dude, to varying degrees...part of the human condition.

    I feel for all those laid-off and suffering or soon to suffer...that's my bleeding heart.  My mind says the American economy is like a junk used car you keep dumping money into to stay on the road, but eventually it just doesn't pay to keep bailing out the old junker....we need a new economy, no matter the temporary hardship.

    I might end up getting laid off if it gets bad enough....came here looking for a job, leave here looking for a job...thats how I look at it.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes, that's likely because of the pensions (none / 0) (#100)
    by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:10:53 PM EST
    But didn't I read that the government was going to bailout GM and Ford?  Or am I misremembering?  

    [ Parent ]
    speculative really (none / 0) (#103)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:16:02 PM EST
    with the anticipated slow down in car buying and with them losing money in big ways, you figure it cannot go on too much longer....

    [ Parent ]
    I thought I heard... (none / 0) (#113)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:20:08 PM EST
    the govt. gave GM and GE some credit a few days ago or last week....but I must not be googling the right words cuz I can't find any confirmation or details about it....maybe I'm wrong.

    [ Parent ]
    Same here! (none / 0) (#134)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 01:39:06 AM EST
    I swear that I saw that too but can't find it.  

    [ Parent ]
    Copper any good? (none / 0) (#22)
    by Fabian on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:05:44 AM EST
    Copper was hit hard by the building boom in China.  I'm not sure what a "good price" is for copper, but I'd put my money in copper and aluminum.

    [ Parent ]
    copper too (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Jlvngstn on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:26:35 AM EST
    I would buy.  GE for me is too good to pass on though, but of course I see Buffett do it and monkey see monkey do for me.  Although I have no interest in GS.  

    I am not a trader or a broker and have interest with any of these companies. I am a capitalist pig is all./

    [ Parent ]

    Down another 450 already ... (none / 0) (#9)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:53:43 AM EST
    today.

    [ Parent ]
    There don't need to be actual buyers for (none / 0) (#18)
    by tigercourse on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:01:13 AM EST
    stocks to be sold.

    [ Parent ]
    You sure?.... (none / 0) (#114)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:21:35 PM EST
    Doesn't that defy the laws of physics of a sale?...for there to be a seller, there must be a buyer, otherwise no sale.

    [ Parent ]
    Not too many buyers... (none / 0) (#48)
    by santarita on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:29:16 AM EST
    that's the problem.  Apparently one of the things that is happening is that people in hedge funds and mutual funds are liquidating their holdings.  Lots of sell orders out there and the buyers that are out there are only willing to buy at low prices.  The hedge fund investors are usually large and sophisticated.  The mutual fund investors are us folks.

    The market is being manipulated by panicked sellers.  

    [ Parent ]

    GO Phils (none / 0) (#6)
    by mpBBagain on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:50:10 AM EST
    have anyone notices  the  PUMAS are in a frenzy.

    They have worked so hard to get McCain elected and are failing.

    Some of them were saying they are demoralized.

    And its amazing the stuff they say about OBAMA.. i mean really nasty  stuff.

    A classic case of becoming what your hate.

    The left blogosphere (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by rennies on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 03:42:43 PM EST
    takes the trophy for "becoming what you hate," during the primary.

    Right wing GOP talking points against Clinton non-stop.

    [ Parent ]

    I just saw a headline with Black Friday (none / 0) (#8)
    by Jeralyn on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:52:30 AM EST
    How bad is this going to get?

    I've read this landlside it going to keep (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by scribe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:22:53 AM EST
    rolling until it hits about 6000 and grind to a halt somewhere around there.

    That seems reasonable to me, for 2 reasons.

    1.  The market hit an all-time high one year ago yesterday.  If - and I repeat IF - you subscribe to technical analysis (I do), there is a school within it which says significant anniversaries of major highs, lows and events are usually marked by significant moves.  I suppose the best way of saying it is that technical analysis uses empiricism to map the psychology of crowds by putting it on a graph of price and time.  The anniversary of an all time high would be something major, so we could expect a major move on the anniversary.  Because by definition there had been a series of all-time highs leading up to the all-time high of all-time high whose annniversary was yesterday, otherwise known as a rally, I am not at all surprised by the coalescence of these anniversaries and a crash.  I would suspect we could expect this to start either settling out into some quiescence or really crash come October 19, the 21st anniversary of the 1987 crash.  The 19th Anniversary of the 1989 crash - where the market lost 10 percent or so of its value, is October 11 - tomorrow.  These are "odd" numbered anniversaries, i.e., not round numbers like 1, 5, 10, 20 or 25, so who knows.  But it's going to be interesting for another week or so.

    2.  If one were to look at the long-long term trend line, going back to say 1970, one would note that there were two great and one small bubbles - leading up to the 1987 crash (small), post-Y2K deflation in dot-com stocks (big) and the current one (bigger).  Each of those bubbles, on deflating, came back to the long-long-term trend line.  That line shows the underlying growth in the economy as reflected in stock price.  Presently, that line is somewhere around 6000.

    The important thing is to keep one's head.  If one is concerned they are losing all their money - one needs to remember how they got it in the first place.  If one earned it and still can work, then keep working.  And, FWIW, there are no pockets in shrouds, even today.

    As to us lawyers, we know that people will keep getting in trouble, and there will always be work for us.  At least until Bushco sends us to Gitmo or something.

    None of this is investment advice, BTW.  Make your own decisions.

    [ Parent ]

    In regards to your second point, I thought (none / 0) (#46)
    by tigercourse on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:27:17 AM EST
    I heard on Bloomberg earlier today that the long term trend was somewhere around 8000, not 6.

    [ Parent ]
    It's kinda hard to come to any conclusive (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by scribe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:33:46 AM EST
    decision on where exactly the long-term trend lies, because there is no small amount of art involved in deciding where and how to draw the line, and a lot of other details I won't bother with (time frame, grid scale, selection of points, etc.).

    Anywhere between 6000 and 8000 sounds reasonable to me.  I'm saying 6 b/c (a) there's a lot of herd panic going on (and that's hard to stop) and (b) I think I'll look smarter if I say 6 and it stops at 7.

    [ Parent ]

    Yeah, that's what I thought as well. (none / 0) (#51)
    by Pegasus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:31:21 AM EST
    But it's possible that's an outdated number underestimating the hugeness of the recent bubble.

    [ Parent ]
    You know what they say, (none / 0) (#101)
    by BrassTacks on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:13:06 PM EST
    If you laid all the economists end to end, around the world, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.  

    No one knows what is going to happen, but it appears that it will be a very long recession, if not depression.  Let's all continue to pray for Obama and that he will know how to handle this when he takes over.

    [ Parent ]

    If This Weekend Doesn't Produce ... (5.00 / 0) (#54)
    by santarita on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:36:16 AM EST
    coordinated and aggressive action by the G7 and other interested countries, then I think the market will continue its death spiral.

    My prediction:  some banks will be nationalized
                                inter-bank lending will be guarantied by the Gov't
                                 Rate cut of at least 50 bps.

    [ Parent ]

    I think it's a given now ... (none / 0) (#55)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:38:39 AM EST
    that some banks will be nationalized.

    [ Parent ]
    Two days ago (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:56:18 AM EST
    I wrote an email to a friend with the subject "DOW 8000!!!"

    I was kidding then.

    [ Parent ]

    I seriously said this ... (5.00 / 3) (#14)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:59:51 AM EST
    about a year ago.  That 8,000 was the point the Dow needed to reach to be properly valued.  

    People laughed.  Now I think I was being conservative.

    [ Parent ]

    The stock market has been unstable (none / 0) (#27)
    by Fabian on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:12:31 AM EST
    all freaking year.  I remember after one rate cut, the stock market shot up like a rocket.  I did not like that at all because it looked like the market wasn't reacting, it was over reacting.

    I knew the stock market was over valued, I didn't know that the whole credit/banking system was so infested with bad paper that a market "correction" would look like this.

    Part of what is happening now is a credit shortage and part is a lot of over valued businesses (with too much bad paper to write down).  I wish I could tell what the correct proportions are.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, when the Soviet Union fell ... (5.00 / 2) (#53)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:35:15 AM EST
    for economic reasons, I reminded people of the words of Scipio.

    He supposedly said when looking at the burning ruins of Carthage:

    And one day Rome.

    The destruction of the manufacturing sector and dependence on financial services made this event inevitable.

    The IT revolution put this off a decade.  People like Hillary Clinton were hoping the Green Revolution might save us for another decade.  It may yet help dig us out.

    [ Parent ]

    Here (none / 0) (#57)
    by scribe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:43:43 AM EST
    are the guys who held the torches.

    Not really, but they didn't help matters.

    [ Parent ]

    Gotta love street justice sometimes... (none / 0) (#81)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:24:32 PM EST
    if nothing else, that fool Fuld got his clock cleaned at the company gym.  Classic, and well played by the clocker!

    (They had no money...why the f*ck did they have a gym?)

    [ Parent ]

    The gym was from the days (none / 0) (#110)
    by scribe on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:58:42 PM EST
    Before.  

    I don't approve of self-help like that, but I can surely appreciate the emotion.  Standing there, lifting weights, watching some crumb who set up his exit compensation (and likely did it in a way that would avoid the fate of those at Drexel Burnham Lambert, who had to give back their bonuses when the company went into bankruptcy right after the new year) and just trashed both your exit compensation and your stock portfolio.

    Pump iron, apply strength.

    If they catch the guy, I hope he holds out for a jury trial - there isn't a jury in Manhattan that would convict.

    [ Parent ]

    I think even the fool Fuld... (none / 0) (#115)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 02:24:05 PM EST
    knows better than to press charges...his name is Bush (the new Mudd) enough already as it is:)

    [ Parent ]
    I've been thinking 8000 since early (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by tigercourse on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:00:01 AM EST
    last week. I didn't expect it to get there this fast though. I have no idea how low it could go now.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not going to predict this one, not even (none / 0) (#19)
    by andgarden on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:01:56 AM EST
    as a joke.

    UGH.

    [ Parent ]

    If you'd like to hear something funny, (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by tigercourse on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:06:21 AM EST
    my financial advisor called me on September 22 (I marked it down because I knew how ridiculous this was) to tell me to buy Citigroup (the company he works for) and GE. I almost laughed in his... ear. I expect his next call will be to tell me to buy an apple cart.

    [ Parent ]
    You need a new (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:08:50 AM EST
    financial adviser, I think.

    [ Parent ]
    Bad, but probably not today (none / 0) (#29)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:14:01 AM EST
    All the analysts on the Teebee are talking about something called "capitulation," which will signal the bottom.  They say when a capitulation happens, it will be unmistakeable-- a huge volume of trading and a big bottoming out.  People I'm hearing are speculating somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000.

    When that capitulation happens, they say, it will be the signal all the traders are waiting for to buy, buy, buy, and the stock market will begin its recovery.

    Also, computer-programmed trades as mentioned elsewhere in the comments here are apparently a big part of what's going on now, plus the fact that the SEC's temporary ban on short-selling expired yesterday.

    [ Parent ]

    I have a big problem with trusting in (none / 0) (#33)
    by tigercourse on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:20:48 AM EST
    capitulation. We've had a whole bunch of fairly large bottoming outs (nowhere near 1987, yet, but still large) and they haven't led to anything other then new lows. None of these tv analysts have never seen conditions like this. Most weren't alive in '29, none were old enough to follow what was happening at the time.

    Yes, usually looking for a capitulation or bottom is the smart thing to do/expect. Except one time. One very big time.

    [ Parent ]

    All these intermediate lows (none / 0) (#56)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:42:56 AM EST
    don't resemble capitulation, is the point.  You say yourself nowhere near 1987.  This is a roaring bear market, verging on a crash.

    [ Parent ]
    I have a pretty smart friend (none / 0) (#37)
    by Pegasus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:21:43 AM EST
    who does economics and finance, and her opinion is that if it gets below about 7k, the next stop is 3-4k (via a domino effect leading to mass layoffs, more foreclosures, etc.).  

    That's about the worst prediction I've heard.  Personally, I think 8,000 is about as low as the Dow will go.

    [ Parent ]

    I think that depends (none / 0) (#58)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:43:59 AM EST
    entirely on whether Paulson can get the credit markets unstuck and in short order.

    [ Parent ]
    Right. (none / 0) (#69)
    by Pegasus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:57:59 AM EST
    The underlying assumption is that he cannot.  And actually... I'm inclined to think that's true.

    We're flat-out going to have to nationalize some banks, IMO.

    [ Parent ]

    You assume a central planner.... (none / 0) (#83)
    by kdog on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:34:18 PM EST
    will do better, I'm not so sure.

    Look at the NY State OTB (Off Track Betting)...one of the only, if not only, bookies in the history of bookies to ever lose money.  I sh*t you not.  It is supposed to be impossible for a bookie to lose money, but leave it to a central planner to find a way.

    And the federal bueracracy is even more hopeless than my state's bueracracy:)

    [ Parent ]

    Why did that idiot push through the economic (none / 0) (#132)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 01:29:58 AM EST
    package like the house was on fire and now he's doing squat?  Good grief, the man needs to get that money out there!  Wasn't that the point of his big RUSH?!  

    [ Parent ]
    Betty White (none / 0) (#10)
    by indy in sc on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:54:38 AM EST
    is still hilarious.  Warning: mildy NSFW because of use of a curse word.

    Thanks, that was pretty funny. (none / 0) (#78)
    by Radix on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:22:52 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Palin on SNL Oct 25 (none / 0) (#12)
    by ruffian on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 10:59:19 AM EST
    What will get more viewers, that or Obama's half hour commercial on the 29th?

    Palin will get more viewers (5.00 / 0) (#105)
    by CST on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:19:11 PM EST
    But Obama will probably get more voters.

    That's my prediction.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama's a fool to do that ad when (none / 0) (#133)
    by BrassTacks on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 01:31:23 AM EST
    He's so far ahead.  He needs to just ride the wave.  

    [ Parent ]
    Treasury will guarantee (none / 0) (#28)
    by votermom on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:13:15 AM EST
    money market accounts for 3 months. (But only if the company administering the mm acct applies for coverage, and only for money in the account as of Sept 19).
    Does this mean mm accounts are safe for the moment?

    i saw (none / 0) (#31)
    by connecticut yankee on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:16:01 AM EST
    David Gergen pointed out that McCain-Palin rallies are becoming dangerous with their simmering hatreds.   It's interesting watching McCain devolve into sort kind of George Wallace figure.

    But George Wallace won ... (none / 0) (#44)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:25:47 AM EST
    five states.

    ;)

    [ Parent ]

    And did well in Wisconsin (none / 0) (#88)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:50:03 PM EST
    where he won my town then, a burb of Milwaukee.

    Strange times.

    [ Parent ]

    Btw, a lot of kids from that town (none / 0) (#90)
    by Cream City on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:53:00 PM EST
    that went for Wallace moved farther west in the white flight to the next county -- Waukesha County, the site of the McCain rally yesterday with the so-called angry "mob" featured all over cable.

    They're not a mob.  I know these folks.  They're very frightened, by just about anything now, with the economy and the daily job losses and rising foreclosures in Wisconsin, especially in Milwaukee where a lot of them work.  It's been bad for so long now here, and it's getting worse. . . .

    [ Parent ]

    Scared people do frightful things (5.00 / 2) (#96)
    by MKS on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:07:19 PM EST
    Nice people can do very destructive things....

    [ Parent ]
    Cool--that'd be fine by me (none / 0) (#91)
    by MKS on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:54:46 PM EST
    Let McCain rip 'em up and get five states....

    But he will try some other Hail Mary next week--yet another stunt, so the election won't be over without a lot of other stuff happening...

    [ Parent ]

    My attempt at humor was ... (none / 0) (#119)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 03:12:01 PM EST
    missed.

    I was suggested that McCain wouldn't even win five states.

    Sigh.

    [ Parent ]

    Which will get more attention in (none / 0) (#35)
    by oculus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:21:16 AM EST
    the Friday news dump?  (1) Alaska Legislature's report on Troopergate, or (2) allegedly illegal donations to Obama campaign?

    I know I should be paying attention (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by Fabian on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:51:21 AM EST
    to Troopergate just on principle, but I'm really tired of talking about Palin.  

    I think the reason why I'm so tired of it is because there seems to be a sentiment that This Latest Revelation will put an end to Palin.  I don't know if that is true.  I think Palin might be the kind of politician who can take her lumps and come back for more.

    [ Parent ]

    Yup, this is more ... (5.00 / 0) (#66)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:56:29 AM EST
    trial by fire, than crash and burn.

    I expect we'll have Palin to kick around for quite some time.

    [ Parent ]

    In his op ed in the Seattle newspaper, (none / 0) (#85)
    by oculus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:35:39 PM EST
    Garrison Keillor says Palin will be making $40,000 appearances on the lecture circuit soon.

    [ Parent ]
    Which one? n/t (none / 0) (#86)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:41:34 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Here: (none / 0) (#89)
    by oculus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 12:52:15 PM EST
    Seattle Times

    [ Parent ]
    That's actually from the P-I... (none / 0) (#94)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:02:21 PM EST
    ...not the Times--but thanks for the link nonetheless!

    [ Parent ]
    Details, details. (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by oculus on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 01:03:41 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    well (none / 0) (#49)
    by connecticut yankee on Fri Oct 10, 2008 at 11:30:13 AM EST
    The economy will beat both but there is more expectation of the Palin report.

    And the McCain campaign has itself returned over $1 million in dodgy donations.  IIRC the democrats launched