New Hampshire: The Day After

Update: DHinMi at Daily Kos on the county breakdown. This is something I was particularly interested in, see here for example, and appreciate the good analysis.


More analysis of yesterday's New Hampshire primary, why Hillary won and the pollsters were wrong and what's to come.

  • Washington Post, Clinton Teaches Politics 101 concluding the race is now unpredictable:

    In the five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, Clinton ran a campaign. Barack Obama rode a wave. Everyone - myself included - believed the wave would not crest before Tuesday's balloting. Clinton, determined as ever, set out to do something to stop it.

From the blogs: [more]

< Nevada Culinary Workers Endorse Barack Obama | Tweety: Hillary Won Because Bill Messed Around >
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    Obama's campaign co-chair goes overboard (none / 0) (#1)
    by sammiemorris on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:52:24 PM EST

    so.. is he saying that obama cried when katrina hit.. im a little disappointed with his campaign co chair

    Can't say he doesn't have a finger (none / 0) (#2)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:56:01 PM EST
    in the air to check public opinion.  

    links must be in html format (none / 0) (#3)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:57:02 PM EST
    or they skew the site. I will have to delete this comment. If you'd like, please repost using the link button at the top of the comment box.

    What would Gloria say? (none / 0) (#4)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:01:24 PM EST

    Can Hillary be the front runner?

    How Hillary squeaked out a victory (none / 0) (#5)
    by Aaron on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:02:30 PM EST

    Clinton -- 112,238

    Obama -- 104,757

    Not much of a margin there.

    As everyone who was watching CNN and MSNBC yesterday could see, the pundits and journalists were going on and on about how if Obama walked away with New Hampshire easily it was all going to be over, and they were pushing the same thing over at Daily Kos.

     The mainstream media was pushing the sympathy buttons all day for Hillary, replaying her teary-eyed concerns over and over, minus the jabs she took at Obama of course, because they all realize that if Obama had taken New Hampshire, tens of thousands of journalists on the campaign trail would quickly find themselves out of work, and the networks would watch as their viewership plummets off the rating scales because no one would be interested in watching if it's already decided.  So what we have here is a case of motivated self-interest by the media to keep this race alive.

    There are a lot of journalists out there who are staying a nice hotels and eating much better than they are used to, and that will now continue as long as they can prop up Clinton, and play upon the sympathy of women to keep her in the race.  I wonder how long this tactic will work?  :-)

    Obama continues to be the choice of young people .

    In the two largest college towns in New Hampshire, Obama still won easily.  This is where his base of support is strongest, with new voters.


    Obama -- 58.16%

    Clinton -- 12.16%


    Obama -- 48.02%

    Clinton -- 29.84%

    Obama was also the preference of the more successful and better educated in New Hampshire.

    Better factor in the writers' strike. (none / 0) (#7)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:05:30 PM EST
    Polls rode a wave... (none / 0) (#6)
    by subee on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:03:51 PM EST
    We need to remember that opinion polls are just that -- and opinions are highly susceptible to waves of excitement that are inevitably temporary.  The polls showed us that people were really excited about Obama on January 5-6. The media then went way overboard by interpreting this as indicating a deep shift among voters.  

    I'd say what we've learned so far is just that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are the two strongest contenders among northern white voters.

    go ahead and delete Jeralyn (none / 0) (#8)
    by sammiemorris on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:11:06 PM EST
    I just thought I'd throw it out there. Doesn't really make sense why he'd say it.

    Oh look: just Hillary Clinton (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:11:23 PM EST
    in the graphic.

    She won, I did the same (none / 0) (#11)
    by Jeralyn on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:22:58 PM EST
    for Obama after Iowa.

    Gee whiz (none / 0) (#10)
    by Bob In Pacifica on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:22:30 PM EST
    And those pollsters were wrong in Ohio in 2004 too. I guess you go in, see all the pretty lights on those Diebold machines and your hand and mind just move to the right.

    Next (none / 0) (#12)
    by Dadler on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:23:15 PM EST
    Wake me up when more than a few thousand people "decide" this is now a race.  Of course I hope it is, a good heated race is good for democracy.  But placing so much importance on such tiny unrepresentative slices of the nation, I can't say it enough, it is just useless and infuriating and absurd.  There are more people within five square miles of me than voted in these manufactured media circuses.  At least here, and in many other places much more deserving of this primary electoral importance, the melting pot's got more than white potatoes in it.  Why are we clinging to this weak sh*t?  


    I am Dan Quayle (none / 0) (#14)
    by Dadler on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:25:52 PM EST
    I just looked up "potatoes" to make doubly sure I wasn't pulling a Danny Boy.  I was sure the plural had the e, but after such a rant, one wants to make sure you have offered up the built in comic comeback.

    That said, I just remembered the funniest joke about Quayle, that really relates to the chickenhawks of today: Stanley Kubrik just made a movie about Dan Quayle's Vietnam experience.  It's called Full Dinner Jacket.


    Clinton suckers the ladies :-) (none / 0) (#13)
    by Aaron on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:23:45 PM EST
    I think Hillary took a page from bill on this one, perhaps he was even the architect.

    Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House? -- New York Times op-ed

    The Obama campaign calculated that they had the women's vote over the weekend but watched it slip away in the track of her tears.

    At the Portsmouth cafe on Monday, talking to a group of mostly women, she blinked back her misty dread of where Obama's "false hopes" will lead us -- "I just don't want to see us fall backwards," she said tremulously -- in time to smack her rival: "But some of us are right and some of us are wrong. Some of us are ready and some of us are not."

    There was a poignancy about the moment, seeing Hillary crack with exhaustion from decades of yearning to be the principal rather than the plus-one. But there was a whiff of Nixonian self-pity about her choking up. What was moving her so deeply was her recognition that the country was failing to grasp how much it needs her. In a weirdly narcissistic way, she was crying for us. But it was grimly typical of her that what finally made her break down was the prospect of losing.  

    discussed (none / 0) (#15)
    by Judith on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:28:00 PM EST
    and disregarded elsewhere.

    you lose points using dowdy as a source.


    WSWS: primary foreshadows protracted contest (none / 0) (#16)
    by Andreas on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 01:32:37 PM EST
    The WSWS analysis is missing in the list:

    New Hampshire primary foreshadows protracted contest for US presidential nominations
    By Patrick Martin, 9 January 2008

    Education is not smarts (none / 0) (#17)
    by koshembos on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 05:23:12 PM EST
    The same people who voted for Dean are now voting for Obama. One couldn't have two candidates that are more different than these two. Dean was down to earth, spoke in concrete terms, had a decent and moderate record. Obama is a preacher, uses abstract nouns, and has microscoping scale record. It's probably a status vote and not a calculated prudent one.

    I wonder about Kos who seems to be very progressive, but intend to vote for a candidate to the right of Hillary. Is this a status call too?