The Iowa Bounce: ARG Has Obama Up 12
ARG reflects a big Iowa bounce for Barack Obama:
Obama 38 (31)
Clinton 26 (35)
Edwards 20 (15)
Richardson 3 (5)
ARG claims that this reflected polling on the 4th and 5th. Today is the 5th. I have not heard of polling on Saturday mornings. That said, this is the bounce I expected. this would be Obama's best polling period. It will be interesting to see if Edwards goes up from here. Honestly, I do not see it at all. But I have been wrong before.
Bennett of ARG is predicting that 37% of the primary participants will be Independent. Obama wins them overwhelmingly. He splits Democrats with Hillary. This is where Hillary can do better imo. She needs to win Democrats convincingly. And she needs McCain to do better with Independents. McCain seems to be attracting much less of the Independent vote than Obama is. ARG has McCain in a big lead over Romney in NH based on a large lead among Republicans as well as Independents.
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