New Hampshire Polls: Clinton Still Leading

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 10:03:42 AM EST
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The Zogby Tracker:

Clinton 32 (32)
Obama 28 (26)
Edwards 20 (20)
Richardson 7 (7)

In essence, a little Iowa movement to Obama. But this is Zogby so I do not trust him. He is already predicting big Iowa bounce. I hate a pollster who predicts what his own poll will do the next day. For a more serious poll, here is the Suffolk Tracker:

Clinton 36 (37)
Obama 29 (25)
Edwards 13 (17)
Richardson 4 (4)

As you can see, this poll is showing Iowa bounce. But all the bad news is for Edwards. Hillary has not dropped significantly yet. Indeed, if Hillary can hang on like she did the first night, she has a better shot than I would have thought. She has the debate tonight, which could easily halt the Iowa bounce.

Let me say this, I am surprised the Iowa bounce is not bigger already. This race in New Hampshire may be more up in the air than I thought. In the GOP race, Romney has MOVED UP since Iowa. Huckabee is up a bit but not much and McCain seems stagnant.

Maybe New Hampshire is poised to confound CW on the Iowa bounce.

Update [2008-1-5 12:41:24 by Big Tent Democrat]: Rassmussen does a one day poll last night and reports the results. Obama by 10.

< Iowa and South Carolina | New Hampshire News Sources >

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New Hampshire Polls: Clinton Still Leading | 28 comments (28 topical)

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ARG - Obama up by 12 (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by commissar on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 03:20:26 PM EST

Another Outlier!

The conventional wisdom (4.00 / 1) (#2)
by andgarden on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 10:52:39 AM EST

is that if Hillary wins, so does Romney, but if Obama wins, so does McCain. It's looking like that's not a sure bet at all.

: There are no sure bets. (none / 0) (#5)
by oldpro on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:20:30 AM EST

It's a volatile election year and nobody knows nuttin'...one damn amazing thing after another.
A huge turnout for Obama at a rally this morning. Saw the beginning on C-SPAN...unbelievable, really.

On the tracking polls (none / 0) (#1)
by dthurston on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 10:27:37 AM EST

According to the information I found, Zogby is a four-day tracking poll, and Suffolk is a two-day tracking poll. So the Suffolk poll is half from before Iowa, while the Zogby poll is mostly from before it; that's presumably why the Suffolk poll shows more movement than Zogby.

(That's also presumably why Zogby is predicting a big bounce--he knows what the response was on Friday, specificall. Of course there are other reasons not to trust him.)

: 3 day trackers both of them (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:19:39 AM EST

The 2nd - before the caucus result but after the DMR poll. Obama was favored.
The 3rd - the night of the Iowa caucus.
the 4th - the night after and the fist day of full bore NH campaigning.
the 5th - tonight - the night of the debate.
the 6th - the night after the debate.
the 7th - the night before the primary.
the 8 th - the primary.

Speaking of pollsters.. (none / 0) (#3)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:16:16 AM EST

Look at this rant by Dick Bennett of ARG. It's all about how the DMR poll got some things wrong (and indeed, they did), but it also reads like a pro-Edwards rant from a pollster, and feels a little inappropriate to me.

: Rant? (none / 0) (#6)
by oldpro on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:24:22 AM EST

Seems like a perfectly straightfoward assessment to me.

Rasmussen... (none / 0) (#7)
by mindfulmission on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:34:55 AM EST

...just released a poll today with Obama 10 up in NH.

A one day poll (none / 0) (#9)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:43:11 AM EST

Very unusual and frankly, not particularly reliable.

But it shows the Iowa bounce.


Agreed... (none / 0) (#10)
by mindfulmission on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:46:26 AM EST

... but probably just as reliable as Zogby. :)


: Probably less (none / 0) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:50:31 AM EST

Seriously, a one day poll is almost never reported.
It is rather shocking that Rass did so. Maybe he needed some press.
I am surprised he did it.

: Zogby was dead last (none / 0) (#12)
by illissius on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:07:13 PM EST

in Pollster.com's "respectedness of pollsters among other pollsters" survey, but Rasmussen wasn't far behind.

It does show it (none / 0) (#13)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:13:20 PM EST

I expected it to be 10-15%. But, more importantly, the Rasmussen poll is the most spectacular one, and fits right into the media narrative. So, it will be reported on, adding to the bandwagon effect.

The NYT today had an article describing the Clintons as "tired" and Obama as "sunny and charasmatic". There isn't really anything any candidate can do against that kind of coverage. It's over.


Debate tonight (none / 0) (#14)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:20:17 PM EST

overwhelms the polls it seems to me.

And Rass is not a very respected poll. Neither is Zogby or Suffolk for that matter.

There is no DMR Poll in NH.

The debate will be the thing.


help pls (none / 0) (#15)
by Judith on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:32:23 PM EST

hey - do you know if the debate will be accessablle over the web - - or radio? My teevee bit the dust.

thx


No I do not. (none / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:37:32 PM EST

Google would help you there I think.


c-span (none / 0) (#26)
by Judith on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 02:02:45 PM EST

somebody told me they would have it live - this one is worth watching IF they ask some decent questions.

thanks for the reply...


: not (none / 0) (#28)
by Judith on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 06:14:42 PM EST

looks like the tip was wrong - it is on abc with the Demz after the GOP. I have to be up early tomorrow so will prob miss it.

Even debates are interpreted (none / 0) (#16)
by koshembos on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:40:01 PM EST

Hillary cannot win the debate! There is basically no neutral assessment anymore.


: Yeah (none / 0) (#17)
by TheRealFrank on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 12:53:33 PM EST

The thing with debates is, that many more people read the media coverage of the debate, than actually watch the debate.
The media coverage will show what fits into the narrative. I'm guessing "Obama comes out of debate unscathed".
At the time of the debate that had Clinton's "immigration stumble", the media were hoping for something that would allow them to change the story to the much more interesting "frontrunner falters" narrative, followed by "fresh-faced newcomer wins". Right now, they're not interested in that, unless it's something like "Clinton a comeback kid like her husband before her", but I very much doubt that.

MYT front page above the fold: color (none / 0) (#18)
by oculus on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:17:59 PM EST

photo of hands reaching to shake Obama's. AP on line today: downside of having your principal campaign advisor be a former President, whom people necessarily link with the past, not change.


Two states... (none / 0) (#8)
by Dadler on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 11:39:08 AM EST

...as homogeneous as you get in this country should NEVER play such a major role in presidential primaries, much less EVERY primary. It's a broken primary system that serves the civic interests of no one.

Timing (none / 0) (#19)
by andreww on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:21:14 PM EST

I think the timing of the Iowa victory and the short amount of time between it and the NH primary actually helps Hillary. Had Obama won on a Monday or Tuesday, his victory speech would have been played for 5 days at every news cycle, and would have given him just a little more time to build up the needed momentum in NH.

By the way, Mitt Romney is attacking Obama now so maybe they view him as the front runner now. It'll be interesting to see who the republicans attack at the debate tonight.

If Obama wins - I don't see how McCain can. Likewise, if McCain wins I don't see how Obama can as they need the same people.

: I actually agree (none / 0) (#20)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:36:32 PM EST

The deabte becomes the new story after tonight.
It's weird. I really expected a bigger bounce for Obama.
He is not the lock I thought he would be in NH.

Who does DMR say will win NH? (none / 0) (#22)
by oculus on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:48:11 PM EST

: Heh (none / 0) (#25)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:51:52 PM EST

Not polling it I presume.

do you know... (none / 0) (#23)
by andreww on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:48:52 PM EST

who will be in the debates tonight? I didn't know kucinich was excluded. Obama, Edwards, Clinton, Richardson?

: That is it (none / 0) (#24)
by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 05, 2008 at 01:51:29 PM EST

Have to be polling at least 5%.
Richardson should be excluded too in my opinion.