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What Did The Polls Predict?

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:06:47 PM EST
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NBC is not being honest when it discusses what the polls expected for Obama in relation to the white vote. As I posted earlier today, the NBC-Mason Dixon poll was an outlier. Every other poll projected Obama getting approximately 20% of the white vote and it appears that is what he did. And indeed, the M-D poll blew the margin in this race by a hefty margin. Every other poll had Obama winning in a blowout.

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    What Did The Polls Predict? | 14 comments (14 topical)

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    Hats off to the big O. (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Molly Bloom on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:11:48 PM EST
    Nothing more need be said about his victory. I will vote either Monday or Tuesday.

    NBC, CNN and the rest, on the other hand...

    I too offer my congrats to Obama (none / 0) (#2)
    by athyrio on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:21:39 PM EST
    It is a shame that race has taken the victory away from him....it really isnt fair but he can thank the media for their constant harping...

    "Every other poll?" (none / 0) (#3)
    by commissar on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:42:28 PM EST
    The RCP average of 6 polls showed an Obama margin of 11%

    The actual margin will be 26%.

    Excuse me (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:32:01 PM EST
    The NBC poll was the outlier that made it lower than that.

    Zogby had him up 16. The PPP had him up 26!!! Suvery USA up 20.

    I do not know what you are talkng about but it has not relation to what the polls expected.

    Parent

    here is the RCP link (none / 0) (#8)
    by commissar on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:34:51 PM EST
     RCP average of polls.

    11.6%

    Parent

    inclunding (none / 0) (#9)
    by commissar on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:36:34 PM EST
    Survey USA showing 13% margin.

    Yeah, ... I know "chattering."

    Parent

    my bad (none / 0) (#10)
    by commissar on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:46:03 PM EST
    your post was about the "white vote" only.

    Got it. 24-25% of the white vote was not such a blowout of the projections.

    Parent

    But after all (none / 0) (#4)
    by commissar on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:43:13 PM EST
    "just like Jesse Jackson" he can win in South Carolina.

    Give it a rest (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Molly Bloom on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:45:59 PM EST
    If you favor Obama, you are hurting his message of inclusiveness, if you favor HRC, you should be embarrassed.

    Parent
    i was quoting (none / 0) (#6)
    by commissar on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:26:30 PM EST
    Bill Clinton.  

    You are right. He should be embarrassed.

    Parent

    and now it becomes more clear (none / 0) (#11)
    by chicago dyke on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:17:33 PM EST
    why MI and FL can't be allowed to play this game. there can be one primary where 'the black vote matters,' and one in which the same can be said for latino/a voters. but two of each? goodness no.

    this is all the diversity america needs, esp in the dem primaries.

    80/44/42 think on those #s.

    He got a quarter of the white vote... (none / 0) (#12)
    by mike in dc on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:38:06 PM EST
    ...which is a bit better than polling predicted.  His speech hit all the right notes, and the net effect of the attacks on him has led to the addition of a subtle gut punch to the Clintons being fairly seamlessly woven into his "Unity Shtick".  

    It's harder to dismiss his victory now, because he won big, and he did break out of the "race trap" a bit, enough to tie Clinton among white males.  Were it not for her numbers among white female voters there, we might well have been looking at a 2nd place finish for Edwards.

    This was a barely mitigated disaster for the Clinton campaign.  
    I'd expect some narrowing in both the national numbers and in the 2/5 states now.  I don't know whether or not he'll beat her in delegates that day, but I'm very confident she's not going to score a knockout blow that day. Prediction: He'll win several states,  pick up at least 40-45% of the pledged delegates, and the superdelegate gap will begin to narrow.

    A bit better (none / 0) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Jan 27, 2008 at 07:12:12 AM EST
    My point exactly.

    Parent
    too, too funny! (none / 0) (#13)
    by cpinva on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:01:30 PM EST
    congratulations to sen. obama, on his victory in the S.C. primary. i hope he takes a few moments to bask in his accomplishment, because that's all he has.

    with all due respect to sen. obama, the posters here, and the media mavens, y'all aren't very bright.

    consider these mathematical facts: african americans comprise roughly 11% of the total US population (a % that hasn't changed appreciably in nearly 200 years). those states comprising the former confederacy have the highest overall % of african americans, SC is one. if sen. obama is counting on the african american vote to get him the party nomination, he's deluding himself, as surely as the rest of you are.

    in just raw #'s, there aren't enough african americans in all 50 states to do so. since they tend to be concentrated in the southeast, their effect is diluted even more. that sen. obama got only 24-25% of the white vote should be his biggest concern; without increasing that %, he'll end up a historic footnote to this campaign.

    iowa was an aberration, NH, NV & SC the norm.

    were i sen. clinton, i'd pat myself on the back for a job well done; realistically it should have been much worse, if the pundits are to be believed. she has the advantage of that other 89% of the population, a far higher % of whom support her than obama.

    all that said, good for sen. obama, keeps everyone from getting complacent.

    What Did The Polls Predict? | 14 comments (14 topical)

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