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WSJ: Obama Needs Double-Digit Win in S.C.

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:24:18 AM EST
Tags: South Carolina 08 (all tags)
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It's almost a given that Barack Obama will win in South Carolina. How much does the vote matter? The Wall St. Journal reports:

But with expectations set so high, political pundits say the Illinois senator faces a dilemma: He will have to win by a double-digit margin in order for voters nationwide to perceive South Carolina as a real victory.

Up for grabs for S.C. Dems today: 54 delegates, including 45 committed and 9 super delegates.

Two graphics that explain today and Feb. 5, below:

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    WSJ: Obama Needs Double-Digit Win in S.C. | 34 comments (34 topical)

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    he'll get it (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:30:00 AM EST
    And frankly, "need" is kind of a ridiculous way to discuss it.

    What happens if he does not. He loses the nomination? Does that mean if he DOES get a double digit win he gets the nomination? Not hardly.

    In the Media game, as anyone watching MSNBC this morning can attest, I am not sure Obama CAN "win" today unless he gets like 30% of the WHITE vote.

    Race is dominating the coverage.

    I think Obama has already "lost" the Media war regarding South Carolina. What was most amazing was they had an Obama surrogate there who was adding fuel to the fire on the issue. Really dumb. Bad campaign work from Obama this morning.  

    MSNBC has been fascinating this morning (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:53:19 AM EST
    especially after Scarborough left.

    The discussion of race and the coverage has been excellent with some great discussion.

    Of course that ALL goes out the window once Tweety shows up.

    I expect a real disaster tonight.

    Parent

    btd, do you mean the discussion (none / 0) (#3)
    by hellothere on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:08:52 PM EST
    with tweety involved? i am assuming that is what you mean.

    Parent
    Yep (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:23:00 PM EST


    Parent
    I posted in a different thread to let you (none / 0) (#6)
    by Teresa on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:33:09 PM EST
    know that I don't think Tweety is on tonight. The ads last night said Keith O. and David Gregory. I checked TV Guide.com and it said the same thing and listed a bunch of analysts, but no Tweety. He must have something else to do because I doubt we'd get lucky enough for them to put him in time out.

    Parent
    Saw your comment (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:34:52 PM EST
    That is great news.

    Parent
    i think ko sees the trouble tweety (none / 0) (#10)
    by hellothere on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:55:33 PM EST
    causes for msnbc. witness the tweety "apology" to hillary and then his absence tonight. any thoughts?

    Parent
    I think KO & Brokaw both had (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Teresa on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:06:55 PM EST
    problems with him last week. I doubt he's in time out though. He probably just has another commitment. I'm sure they'll mention it tonight. I'm just glad he won't be there.

    I have to watch basketball from 7-9 so you guys will have to fill me in. Maybe my Vols will have a blow out or I might just record them. Politics or college sports? My biggest dilemma!

    Parent

    Race an inevitable issue in a Deep South primary (none / 0) (#33)
    by Cream City on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:37:33 PM EST
    With or without Obama, wouldn't the first primary or caucus in the South, and especially the Deep South, inevitably bring up the issue of race in this race?

    Imagine a state with women as almost two-thirds of its population.  With or without a woman candidate, wouldn't gender inevitably be part of discussion -- how women voters would vote for male candidates?

    It seems that once the DNC decided the need for an early primary in the South -- as well as the caucus in the West last week -- it was inevitably bringing issues of race and ethnicity into the discussion, even if all the candidates had been white men again . . . because many of the voters would not be.

    (This is not to excuse, by any means, how poorly issues of race, ethnicity, and gender have been handled by some candidates and many in the media.)

    Parent

    Prolonged South Carolina (none / 0) (#4)
    by Stellaaa on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:16:09 PM EST
    Why does South Carolina get to have two weeks of attention with the primaries?  Does any other state do this?  

    What time do the polls close in S.C.? (none / 0) (#8)
    by oculus on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:51:35 PM EST
    Are the delegates apportioned?

    From what I've been reading and hearing on NPR, it seems to me many black women may decide to vote for Hillary Clinton.  

    I think all of the Democratic primaries (none / 0) (#14)
    by Teresa on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:03:54 PM EST
    are apportioned.

    Parent
    7:00 pm (none / 0) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:20:23 PM EST


    Parent
    Obama within 3 nationally (none / 0) (#9)
    by magster on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:52:06 PM EST
    according to Rasmussen.  

    Maybe the meme should be framed as Hillary needs to be within 10 percent?

    As for prediction, I have a feeling that Hillary make it really close with an outside chance of winning, and Edwards will have disappointing results again.  

    Rassmussen's poll (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:57:34 PM EST
    is not believable in that it shows a 5 point drop in a single night of a tracking poll.

    That translates into 12 to 15 point drop.

    Nothing happened YESTERDAY to explain that.

    Throw it out and wait for some real polls.


    Parent

    Hillary (none / 0) (#12)
    by athyrio on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 12:58:34 PM EST
    apparently will have a blowout in Florida tho so that might affect the polls as well...

    More voters in dem than last week (none / 0) (#13)
    by Stellaaa on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:01:58 PM EST
    Once again, more democratic voters are showing up.  Hope this sticks in the GE

    Beneficial effect of the recent (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by oculus on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:11:15 PM EST
    Republican debate?  I would certainly be considering my other options if I were Republican and watching that.

    Parent
    unless you never (none / 0) (#17)
    by Judith on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:15:33 PM EST
    wanted to pay any taxes ever again!

    Parent
    Or you still actually believe we can (none / 0) (#18)
    by oculus on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:18:39 PM EST
    "Win" in Iraq.  

    Parent
    Or if you are Marie Antionette... (none / 0) (#20)
    by Stellaaa on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:23:26 PM EST
    Let them eat tax cuts.  

    Parent
    you actually can eat tax cuts :-) (none / 0) (#21)
    by Judith on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:28:53 PM EST


    Parent
    cold cuts.... (none / 0) (#27)
    by Stellaaa on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:38:46 PM EST
    (bad pun sorry)

    Parent
    heehee - good (none / 0) (#28)
    by Judith on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:43:26 PM EST
    I love references to Marie Antoinette.

    Parent
    And a regressive tax on purchases (none / 0) (#23)
    by oculus on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:30:08 PM EST
    that won't really adversely effect me if I vote Republican because I'm pretty well off. Not to mention, I [the Republican] sure don't want to have to insure all my employees or, God forbid, actually pay out of my pocket, to make sure everyone has access to medical care. They probably think Edwards is demented:  up from working side by side in the coal mines with dear ole Dad, put self through college and lawschool, make scads of money and now wants to share it with all those people who lacked such initiative?

    Parent
    indeed. (none / 0) (#25)
    by Judith on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:37:50 PM EST
    the whole idea is work hard, make dough, keep dough or eat dough.

    Parent
    we've already won, Occulus. (none / 0) (#22)
    by Judith on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:29:32 PM EST
    Pleasae.  Where have you been?

    Parent
    Son of Gaddafi (sp) allegedly (none / 0) (#24)
    by oculus on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:31:36 PM EST
    leads private militia in Iraq which allegedly was responsible for recent violence in north, U.S. was warned but did nothing.  Sound familiar?

    Parent
    only if you spell it with (none / 0) (#26)
    by Judith on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:38:40 PM EST
    a "Q".

    Parent
    so, if new england wins the superbowl (none / 0) (#29)
    by cpinva on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:50:49 PM EST
    next week, by only 7 points, does that mean it won't really be perceived as a win?

    a 1 point win is as a good as a 100 point win, it's a win. how it's perceived by the media is really their problem, not obama's, clinton's, edwards' or the voters in other states.

    i kind of look forward to the democratic debate where clinton, edwards and obama all jump down the throat of the collective media, and its (so far) mostly idiotic coverage of the democratic campaign.

    Isn't this more like BCS? (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by oculus on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:55:23 PM EST
    strength of schedule, point spread, etc.

    Parent
    Hillary (none / 0) (#31)
    by athyrio on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:59:19 PM EST
    Hillary won Nevada by quite a few points (6%) and yet Obama said it wasnt a win for her...Do the rules change when another candidate is involved??

    Parent
    what does the wagering (none / 0) (#32)
    by hellothere on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:28:35 PM EST
    in the european markets on the election say?  it is allowed there as i recall.

    Well he got it (none / 0) (#34)
    by Jgarza on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 07:22:23 PM EST
    So thanks WSJ.
    So between 20-30.

    WSJ: Obama Needs Double-Digit Win in S.C. | 34 comments (34 topical)

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