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Cherrypicking Hypothetical Polls

While decrying what he terms "poll literalism," Kevin Drum then engages in a curious bit of poll hypotheticalism:

First, withdrawal from Iraq. A recent New York Times poll showed that 65% of respondents want to withdraw either some or all of our troops from Iraq. Hooray! The country is with us! But then the Times asked a followup question: "What if removing troops meant Iraq would become more of a base of operations for terrorists, then would you still favor removing U.S. troops from Iraq, or not?" Guess what? Of that 65%, only 30% still favored removal. That's a huge drop based on a single hypothetical, and in a real campaign that hypothetical would practically blanket the airwarves. It wouldn't convince everyone, of course, but it would probably convince a sizable chunk. The odds are that in real life — i.e., during a campaign

It would probably convince a sizable chunk? How does Kevin know this? Excuse me, this is ridiculous use of polling. Can we do one with a Democratic hypothetical and see what the results would be? Of course not. What Kevin is pointing to is actually push polling. Push polling is not ACCURATE polling and it is impossible to draw any conclusions from it. But Kevin sees value in it, as he then defends the Biden push poll that Celinda Lake performed:

The reason it was derided (aside from the fact that Washington Post reporter Chris Cillizza failed to inform his readers that Biden was behind the poll) was because of the wording of one of the questions: "Some people say [your Democratic incumbent] is a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton and will support her liberal agenda of big government and higher taxes if she becomes president," the poll stated, before asking respondents whether they would still vote for their incumbent or choose a Republican candidate. Outrageous! And it is. On the other hand, that's exactly what Republican House candidates are going to say, isn't it? Which means that this poll, showing a 6-point lead for Democratic incumbents, is probably more useful than generic polls showing a 10 or 15 point lead.

Republican candidates say a lot of things. For example, in 2006, they said "cut and run" 8 million times regarding the Iraq issue. They said the very hypothetical Kevin has such confidence in from the Times poll.

This is weak analysis from Kevin on ow polling works and frankly, well below his standards. Bad show.

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  • Display: Sort:
    That you are upset is understandable. (1.00 / 0) (#8)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:47:56 PM EST
    It was a simple straightforward question that presented a very likely result of us leaving.

    A likely result (5.00 / 0) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:57:47 PM EST
    Given that it is an opinion it is silly to include it in a polling question.

    'Cut and run'

    Parent

    BTD (1.00 / 0) (#12)
    by jimakaPPJ on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 06:15:48 PM EST
    It may be an opinion, but it is also recognized as a possible result.

    And that changes what people want to do.

    Parent

    What if (5.00 / 0) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 07:53:24 PM EST
    the possibel result is exacttly the opposite?

    Will the number go to 100%?

    Parent

    What number? Who's number? That number? (none / 0) (#14)
    by jimakaPPJ on Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 08:22:48 AM EST
    A recent New York Times poll showed that 65% of respondents want to withdraw either some or all of our troops from Iraq.

    And then:

    followup question: "What if removing troops meant Iraq would become more of a base of operations for terrorists, then would you still favor removing U.S. troops from Iraq, or not?" Guess what? Of that 65%, only 30% still favored removal.

    That's recognized as a possible result.

    "What if removing troops meant Iraq would become less of a base of operations for terrorists,

    That also is a recognizable result (in some fantasy world people's minds)...Given that the same group is being polled then there should be some movement of the 35% over to the 65%. But certainly not 100% because many people will just say "BS" to the assumption and refuse to change.

    I have no dog in your fight with Kevin, et al... You guys are always welcome to beat each oyther up.. ;-)

    Parent

    grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Who has number.. (none / 0) (#15)
    by jimakaPPJ on Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 08:23:33 AM EST
    Polling on complex policy decisions is (none / 0) (#1)
    by Geekesque on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:44:36 PM EST
    of extremely limited.

    It's not remarkable to find a situation where the public is negative towards every possible option.

    By the way, I'm really, really, really (none / 0) (#2)
    by Geekesque on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:47:54 PM EST
    displeased with my candidate today.

    Axelrod needs to be fired.  Whoever is in charge of his schedule needs to be fired.

    Oy.

    What happened? (none / 0) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:59:08 PM EST
    Biden's Iraq plan and the Kyl-Lieberman (none / 0) (#4)
    by Geekesque on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:01:43 PM EST
    "WE HATE IRAN" bills came up for votes today.

    Obama was in New Hampshire.  That is inexcusable.

    P.S.  Hillary voted YES on Kyl-Lieberman.  Dodd and Biden voted the right way.

    Parent

    Hillary voted YES? (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:11:02 PM EST
    Wow. I need to rip her.

    Unfathomable.

    Parent

    Some of the really bad language was (none / 0) (#6)
    by Geekesque on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:18:40 PM EST
    taken out.  

    The measure passed 76-22.  

    Apparently debate on both bills was put off indefinitely last night, only to be re-opened this morning.

    Tonight's debate should get ugly.  Obama missed a couple of votes, Hillary voted for a faux-war resolution, and it turns out her campaign was directing Norman Hsu to make donations to her political allies and endorsers.

    Biden and Dodd have an incredible amount of material to work with.

    Parent

    I just posted on it (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:33:29 PM EST
    Kevin Drum is numerically illiterate (none / 0) (#10)
    by chemoelectric on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 02:28:03 PM EST
    Kevin Drum has trouble with quantitative reasoning. I noticed this a long while ago, early in the occupation, when he was easily tricked by the regime into believing there had been 'improvement' in the rate of US military personnel getting killed, and that there had been a significant change when there was absolutely none. Then, as now, a simple graph showed that the killed-rate was nearly constant, and there was nothing in the quality of the occupation on which to base optimism.

    Basically, Drum's reactions were like those of someone who hears 'Hi! How are you?' and thinks this is a proposal of marriage. But that's actually standard behavior in the mass media, along with a lot else, so Drum still is better than the standard.

    Seems overly harsh (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 02:29:28 PM EST