What Rove Wrought
Kevin Drum writes:
Instant analysis: It doesn't really matter. History will judge Rove a colossal failure, a man who never understood how to govern and, for all his immense knowledge of polls and politics, never really understood the times he lived in. It was 9/11 that both made and broke the Bush presidency, not some kind of mystical McKinley-esque realignment. Rove was blind to that, and blind to the way Bush should have governed after 9/11. His one-track mind, in which every problem is solved by wielding the biggest, nastiest partisan club you can lift, just couldn't adapt. . . .
(Emphasis supplied.) What was Karl Rove's job? It was to win elections and expand Republican control. Until 2006, Karl Rove was spectacularly successful, especially considering the weak government he was working with. Karl Rove did not decide to invade Iraq, but he used Iraq in 2002 to further Republican control. That was his job. It was a job that should not have existed. But Republicans believed that using national security issues to expand political control is fine.
Iraq has led to the downfall of Bush and the Republicans. Rove did not decide that. More.
Where did Rove go wrong in his job? In my opinion, on two issues. Social Security and immigration.
On Social Security, Rove tried to destroy one of the few remaining strengths for Democrats. He counted on the Dems to roll over. It was not a bad bet. In early 2005, there were many noises made by the Lieberman/DLC wing of the Democratic Party and the Broder Wing of the Media about how "something" had to be done about Social Security. Indeed, the issue itself was not a disaster for Rove and the Republicans except in this sense - it demonstrated to Democrats that the way to regain their political fortunes was to be Fighting Dems. It was the first step towards the Democratic Party's rejection of DLC triangulation and towards fighting back on Iraq. Which led to the big Democratic win in 2006.
On immigration, Rove still dreamed of Republican realignment by winning over Latinos. Remember this was his most notable success for Bush in Texas. And in reality, Rove understands that Republicans can not form governing majorities long term with te current makeup of its coalition. The demographics are such that the GOP will need to graft on at least some type of additional coalition partner.
But Rove misunderstood the President's weakness. Whereas he could force through the prescription drug bill, on something not national security or tax cut related, Bush simply did not have the oomph to override the GOP base. Even worse, he exacerbated the GOP's growing problem with Latinos by emphasizing the nativist streak of the GOP. It was a tremendous miscalculation.
All in all, to call Karl Rove a failure is to blame him for events beyond his control. One must remember what his job was - to enhance Republican Party control. When he had a hand to work with, he did exactly that. Give the devil his due.
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