The Politics of Iraq
DemfromCt wrote a two-part post title the "Politics of Iraq", here and here that I think completely misreads the situation. Dem writes:
Toothless legislation attracts votes, but doesn't get the job done. Legislation with teeth doesn't attract a consensus or a working majority (at this time) because there isn't one in Congress. . . . The urgency to adjust the status quo outweighs the loyalty to the base, and far outweighs loyalty to an unpopular President, that GOP congress critters feel. The country thinks Congress is dithering. Explaining it away as "I have to keep my shrinking Republican base happy, even though they are unrealistic about the war because Fox News, Joe Lieberman and I don't tell the truth about what's happening there" is not going to fly. . . . Sure, the votes aren't there yet, but everyone in Washington in this kabuki show knows that's coming. . . . It's the GOP's war, and it's Bush's war. If they don't face up to that reality, and at least start preparing their base for the inevitable, they run the risk that 2008 will turn out to be 2006 on steroids. . . .
This, it seems to me, misses entirely the dynamic that is developing. It is the Democratic Congress whose approvals are falling, as clammyc notes. The GOP is much where they were in 2006. The Dems have dropped significantly from where they were. And the danger is of Dems offering safe harbor to those Republicans vulnerable on Iraq. More.
clammy writes:
Now, it is painfully obvious that anything that would pass Congress would need a major bipartisan approval in order to override a Bush veto. But the story that is emerging is that the Democrats can’t get their act together on an Iraq withdrawal plan, and some "bold respected GOP Senators are calling for a new way in Iraq" or "Republicans look for change of course in Iraq" or "Congressional republicans won’t support continued Iraq plan".What is even worse here is that there has been no meaningful legislation proposed or even any meaningful alternative that republicans are letting come to the floor for a vote, when it comes to our troops.
Yet, it isn’t the Democrats who are getting any credit for trying to change the debate and push a plan forward. The blocking of meaningful amendments by republicans in Congress isn’t getting any notice. The continued "same as it ever was" action by the Congressional republicans is getting buried. Fingers are being pointed at Congress in general, and when specific, more so at the Democrats.
As ludicrous as it sounds, it is the Democrats who are getting the blame for not doing enough to get our troops out of Iraq, even though they have only had a few months and fewer opportunities to do so. And it is the republicans who are getting the small bit of glory for pressuring Bush to change course.
Personally, as I have stated, I think the best POLITICAL, not just policy, course for Dems on Iraq is to provoke a binary showdown on the issue through the use of the Spending Power. I think the showdown can come next Spring if Dems announce their intentions now. SO far the Dem leadership in Congress does not agree with me.
But there are other options for how to play it politically. The problem clammy identifies can be remedied by the use of a device Harry Reid employed on the Webb and Graham amendments last week -- offer the Republicans equitable treatment for the Warner-Lugar Amendment, the same as that given the Reid-Levin binding timelines Amendment.
Either both face a cloture vote, or neither. Either both come to the floor for an up or down vote, or neither.
It may well be that the Warner-Lugar Amendment passes with the GOP caucus joined by a few Dems while the Reid-Levin Amendment gets voted down. I doubt it very much frankly. But if that happens, the GOP plan is what will be adopted by the Senate. But it will be the GOP plan, not the Dem plan. This is important because the Lugar-Warner Amendment is toothless. And will be exposed as such soon enough.
If instead the GOP filibusters the Democratic amendment then the same treatment should be given the GOP alternative.
Let up or down votes become the Dem mantra on this. Make the GOP create their own safe harbors. If there are enough Dem Senators willing to vote with the Republicans, then it will be on those individual Senators to explain themselves, it will not be the Dem position. And of course, amendments from Democratic senators that do not reflect the Dem leadership position would be subject to all the procedural hurdles of any other amendment -- if some can attract Republican support, then they become Republican bills, even if the sponsorship carries names like Salazar, Ben Nelson or Mary Landrieu. That's their problem, not that of the Democratic caucus.
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