The Only Poll That Matters Is Election Day
I have often said in discussing the Iraq Debacle that if you want to be a pure political cynic, then what you must to do is consider what your positions and actions will look like to voters on the days they are going to vote. Don't think about what your poll numbers will look like the day after you do something, think about what they will look like the day of the election. Thus, despite murky polling, in early 2005 and throughtout the next two years, I urged a strong Democratic opposition to the Iraq Debacle, arguing then that since Iraq WAS a Debacle and Bush was not going to turn it around, better to opposing it as soon as possible. Today Digby and Matt Yglesias make similar points. Yglesias discusses today's Iraq Supplemental vote:
This, to me, has been one of the most baffling things about the Democratic Party's tactical posture on Iraq ever since early 2003. You see politicians talking and acting as if the crucial thing is whether or not what they're doing will look popular over the next 36 hours. The important thing, of course, is how things look on election day. As Sam says, if the votes aren't there, the votes aren't there, but the important point is that liberals who take the position today that there should be a withdrawal timeline will be fully vindicated by November 2008 just as people who avoided the temptation to pander when Saddam Hussen was captured back in late '03 looked pretty smart by November '04.
But the Beltway does not seem to understand this obvious point. And they never have. It amazes me.
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