DMR Poll: Obama With Large Lead
Running counter to every other recently released poll, the DMR Poll not only has Obama holding his lead but widening it:
Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.
Remember, the DMR Poll nailed the order of the 2004 Iowa Caucus and is easily the most respected Iowa poll. Obama will now be the odds on favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses.
(Speaking for me only) If the DMR poll is accurate, I predict that not only will Obama win Iowa, he will win the nomination.
For Obama supporters, there are a couple of things to worry about in this poll. The first is the sample here predicts:
Caucusgoers under the age of 35 represent 17 percent of likely attendees, higher than any Register poll this year but lower than any other age group.
In essence, the result is dependent on this age group caucusing as it never has before.
The other worry I would have is the rolling trends the poll produced. Obama was tied with Clinton on the 27-28. He clearly had either a huge December 29 or a bad December 27, as he jumped to 33 from 28 in a two day average for the 28-29 period. But then went up only to 34 on the 29-30 cycle, indicating a dropoff (or a steady result if he had an inferior 27 polling day.)
Do I believe this result? Honestly, I find it hard to believe. At the least, I doubt it jibes with Obama's INTERNAL polling. Why? Because the Obama campaign has been on the attack and on the defensive.
Tomorrow they will be gloating however and I imagine they will turn off all negativity.
A good New Year's Eve for the Obama campaign.
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