How Obama Can Win The Nomination

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:19:23 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama (all tags)

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(Speaking for myself only.)

As a weak Obama supporter at this time, folks will likely take my thoughts, rightly, with a grain of salt. But this most recent Gallup poll demonstrates, to me at least, that Barack Obama has a real chance to grab the Democratic nomination from Hillary Clinton:

Clinton's standing among Democrats dropped by 11 percentage points from early November and Giuliani's standing among Republicans fell by 9 points, though both continue to lead their fields. . . . Among Democrats, Clinton's fall wasn't matched by a statistically significant rise for chief rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards. Obama's standing rose 2 points from early November while Edwards was steady.

Clinton has slipped significantly. But Obama has not moved up. Why? I believe the reason is the doubts I have had and written about for some time - the doubt that Obama can fight for Democratic values against a vicious Republican Party. And I am not just talking about in a campaign. I mean as President as well.

Obama needs to demonstrate that he can fight FOR Democratic values and AGAINST Republican values. He needs to change this:

Clinton leads Obama by 26 points among Democratic partisans and 22 points among women.

< Iowa State Univ. Poll: Clinton Leads | Jena Six: Mychal Bell Pleads, Gets 18 Months >

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How Obama Can Win The Nomination | 24 comments (24 topical)

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Armando you just don't get it (none / 0) (#1)
by Aaron on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:26:04 PM EST

Republicans like Obama, and it looks like a significant number of them will vote for him, and perhaps even caucus for him. That's why they call it bipartisan appeal. And that's what this country needs, to bring Republicans and Democrats together in order to make this country work again.

: And yet (none / 0) (#3)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:36:37 PM EST

polls do not say that.
I worry that Obama's people believe that.
It is the most worrying thing about him.

: I doubt very seriously nationwide (none / 0) (#17)
by Molly Bloom on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 08:06:25 PM EST

Republicans would vote for Obama. Furthermore, what actual evidence do you have of GOP longing for bi-partisanship?
What's preventing GOP rank and file from demanding bi-partisanship today?

The inside scoop, on the low low (none / 0) (#2)
by Aaron on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:33:20 PM EST

After talking to the people in Iowa who are supposedly IN THE KNOW, Obama is not just leading, he's beginning to pull away picking up a few defectors from Clinton and Edwards every week but perhaps more importantly Republican defectors who can crossover and caucus for Obama, and who have been signaling that they're going to do just that. Independents as well who tend to blow with the prevailing wind in Iowa, seem to be leaning Obama's way. Confidence is so high that the Obama people in Iowa may be starting to relax a bit. According to these sources, it's a done deal, Iowa is a lock. Damn I hope so. Remember where you heard it folks. :-)

Thank you Iowa, thank you for doing the right thing for America.

The Obama campaign is apparently already gearing up for New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Now that the nomination is not going to be just hand over to Hillary, were going to find out what she's really made of, and whether she is worthy to lead the Democratic Party and this nation.

Supposedly in the know (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:37:13 PM EST

Oy vey.

I hope you do not believe all that stuff.


Could mean, who do Republicans most (none / 0) (#5)
by oculus on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:41:20 PM EST

want as an opponent? The one "open" primary in California bears out that theory.


Nobody "knows" nuthin (none / 0) (#6)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:46:36 PM EST

in politics.

It's all spin.


Although some purport to know more than (none / 0) (#8)
by oculus on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:49:26 PM EST

others.


Everybody does (none / 0) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:59:33 PM EST

For every story that you hear from an Aaron, an Obama supporter, a Des Moines Dem as MYDD, an Edwards supporter, will tell you the exact opposite "insider" story.

It's all nonsense.

Nobody knows nuthin.


With that caveat, do you think Hillary Clinton (none / 0) (#12)
by oculus on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 07:09:57 PM EST

"peaked too early"?, whatever that means?


Nah (none / 0) (#16)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 07:36:41 PM EST

The peaking was not the problem.

The attacks were.


: Attacks on her or by her? (none / 0) (#22)
by oculus on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 01:05:13 AM EST

Was inclined to give cred to DesMoinesDem (none / 0) (#13)
by oculus on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 07:13:59 PM EST

until I remembered what an urban center Des Moines is, entirely different from so much of Iowa.


Remember (none / 0) (#7)
by Aaron on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:49:22 PM EST

I'm up in Iowa every weekend talking to likely caucus goers. And I have family up there who are involved in the political scene, and they're keeping me informed.

These Iowans have these networks among themselves, and they take this caucus stuff very seriously, the ones that participate anyway.

I've actually seen the shift towards Obama that's taken place since October, and the recent polls seem to reflect pretty accurately what I've seen with my own eyes.

I admit that this stuff is all new to me, but there just seems be something in the air in Iowa.

I'll be up there again next Saturday, and I'll give you another report.


: O.K. Back to my step-mother, a life long (none / 0) (#9)
by oculus on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:52:54 PM EST

resident of SE Iowa. She is steadfastly for Edwards, but, after Obama calls her son, the UAW union steward, she has Obama has her #2. All politics IS personal! Good thing Iowa has a relatively small population.

: Sure (none / 0) (#10)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 06:58:00 PM EST

The old 1s and 2s stories.
Sorry dude, I do not buy it.
But you go with that.

Edwards anyone? (none / 0) (#14)
by koshembos on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 07:31:03 PM EST

HRC is a centrist because her dumb advisors think that it's the way to win. HRC is president will be a centrist. Obama is a centrist by conviction. As Krugman said, he is a liar and a Republican. Obama is the second coming of Carter.

Hopefully, we'll get Edwards the only Democrat running at the top.

: Kriugman did NOT say that (none / 0) (#15)
by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 07:35:57 PM EST

Come on.
you're better than this.

Obama's attack response... (none / 0) (#18)
by magster on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 08:35:55 PM EST

...has seemed fairly effective this last week. He responds quickly, and has employed humor and sarcasm. Is counter-punching going to be good enough though? It does not seem like he believes the "good defense is a good offense" strategy.

Tangent: Obama should respond to Rove's advice by saying that Rove is a crook and a loser in order to appeal to progressives in the leadup to the primaries.

oh BTD, ya big thilly! (none / 0) (#19)
by cpinva on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:40:52 PM EST

we take everything you say with a grain of salt!

As a weak Obama supporter at this time, folks will likely take my thoughts, rightly, with a grain of salt.

um, yeah, obama's rocketing right up there in ioway. and social security's going bankrupt too, just you wait 'enry 'iggins, just you wait!

obama has stuck his foot in his mouth so many times, it'll take major reconstructive surgery to remove it. he consistently shows why he shouldn't be on anyone's short list for the nomination, by either party. give him another month, and a touch more rope, and he'll hang himself in the first primary/caucus/whateverthef*ck it is they have out there.

Obama (none / 0) (#21)
by katiekat489 on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 12:56:50 AM EST

After talking with my right wing Christian brother(who I love but do not agree with ) about the election and politics he absolutely floored me when he told me that he thought Obama had a good heart and seemed sincere and that he liked him better than any other candidate-shocked me speechless-but it was not because he thought he was conservative,he knows he is a liberal.Just that he is tired of all pols and is ready for change even if it means giving up his hard held beliefs and voting differently. So yes I do think that Obama can win and hope that he does.I think he will have tons of support in Iowa.He or Edwards are just fine with me , but do have a special place in my heart for a man with the background that he has.

"but do have a special place in my heart (none / 0) (#23)
by oculus on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 01:07:29 AM EST

for a man with the background that he has."

What background of Obama's engenders this?

"democratic partisans" (none / 0) (#24)
by diogenes on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 09:20:15 AM EST

Democratic partisans supported Dukakis, McGovern, etc. It doesn't help you win elections. The only Democratic unlikable enough to lose in a Democratic tide of 2008 is Hillary. If she had the interests of the party to win and to gain congressional seats in mind, she'd pull out NOW.

: McGovern was quite likeable; (none / 0) (#25)
by oculus on Tue Dec 04, 2007 at 10:26:58 AM EST

Nixon wasn't.