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ARG Iowa Poll: Clinton Leads By 7

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 01:08:55 PM EST
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In its earlier 12/20-23 poll, ARG had Clinton ahead by an outlandish 14 points. Either that poll was a clear outlier or Clinton has lost support while Obama and Edwards gained support. The latest results of ARG's 12/26-28 poll:

Biden 5%
Clinton 31%
Dodd 3%
Edwards 24%
Kucinich 1%
Obama 24%
Richardson 5%
Undecided 7%

According to ARG, Clinton is winning women by 38 to 21 percent while losing men by 28 to 25%.

Reading the trend in the poll, the Big Mo is clearly with Edwards.

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    ARG Iowa Poll: Clinton Leads By 7 | 7 comments (7 topical)

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    Not without reason (none / 0) (#1)
    by chemoelectric on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 02:22:50 PM EST
    John Edwards is the guy that the powers-that-be least want, among those who have a chance, and thus he is the best candidate, if we are going to rescue our republic.

    Despite that he is weaselly about Iraq.

    Also he is not wrong to have trepidation about China, who are poised to take our place as planet-poisoner-in-chief, although Pakistan would have been my own answer for a long time already. (Obama's answer of Iran is in keeping with the idea that he says what he thinks people want to hear, and doesn't pay any attention to Scott Ritter, and in any case is not a "thinking person" on such matters, which are the meat of the presidential dinner.)

    Interesting (none / 0) (#2)
    by DA in LA on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 02:58:25 PM EST
    Kos is discrediting this poll, you are championing it.

    We like the polls that give us the information we want, huh?

    What are you saying? (none / 0) (#6)
    by RedHead on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 04:37:18 PM EST
    BTD is championing this poll because it shows Clinton up or because it shows Edwards with Big Mo or both?

    That would make no sense, BTD is a vocal BO supporter.  BO is his candidate.

    Parent

    Outlier (none / 0) (#3)
    by TheRealFrank on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 03:05:15 PM EST
    ARG's polling seems a little unstable from time to time. For example, in SC, Edwards went from 24% one month, to 7% the month after that, and back up to 18% the next.

    So, it's seems reasonable to assume that the previous poll was an outlier.

    I'm guessing that the state of things is that Clinton is basically back to where she was before she had her bad couple of weeks: in the low 30s. Obama is past his peak and is back to the mid-to-high 20s. Edwards definitely seems to be trending up. It'll be interesting to see what the DMR poll will say, since they were pretty good last time (not that this necessarily means anything..)

    ARG House Effect (none / 0) (#5)
    by BDB on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 04:00:32 PM EST
    I would love to believe this poll, but ARG has had a house effect that over-estimated Clinton's support, at least compared to other polls.

    But I do think when taken together the polls show that Clinton and Edwards have gained a bit and Obama has lost.  Certainly, the candidates themselves seem to be acting that way, particularly Obama.  There will probably be one more DMR poll, which typically drops the Sunday before the caucuses.  It has been a pretty good predictor in the past, but it's never had to poll over holidays before.

    Honestly, the big 3 could finish in any order and it wouldn't surprise me.  Between the incredibly close and fluctuating polls and the caucus rules, I don't know how anyone - including the candidates - can know the order.  

    Obama Apparently Robo-Calling Against HRC (none / 0) (#7)
    by BDB on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 06:08:40 PM EST
    Perhaps there is something to this poll.  Via the Politico (I know, I know, they're awful), here's a rough t-script:

    My name is Dr Bob ???, and I'm a physician in Ames, Iowa.

    Hillary Clinton and her Allies have launched misleading attacks on Barack Obama's healthcare plan.

    Well it's time to set the record straight

    Bill Clinton's own secretary of labor looked at both of their plans and said that Obama's plan will insure more people than Hillary Clinton's.

    The key difference Clinton would force people to buy insurance even they can't afford it.

    Obama says the reason people don't have insurance is because it costs too much. His plan saves the typical family $2500 dollars per year.

    That's how Barack Obama will cover everyone.

    Forget the negative attacks, just the facts at iowa.barackobama.com.

    Paid for by Obama for America. 888-622-6242

    Somewhere Paul Krugman's head exploded.  Oh, and let me just say a giant SCREW YOU in advance to Obama and friends for the inevitable GOP use of the line about forcing folks to buy insurance they can't afford in fighting against UHC since every democratic candidate's plan - including Obama's - includes some sort of mandate.   We're going to be hearing this one again, "even Barack Obama acknowledged that [candidate's] plan would force people to buy insurance they couldn't afford."

    Ahem, but I digress.  My larger point is that for Mr. Hope to be robo-calling in his own name (which at least is to his credit), he must be worried.  So maybe there is something to the "Obama has peaked" theory.

    Only plan worth anything is Kucinich's (none / 0) (#8)
    by DA in LA on Sat Dec 29, 2007 at 07:31:44 PM EST
    Obama, Clinton and Edwards plans will lead to more problems, not more.  Particularly Edwards and Clinton's plans.

    Parent
    ARG Iowa Poll: Clinton Leads By 7 | 7 comments (7 topical)

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