Iowa Independent

Here's what they said last Friday:

1. John Edwards -- Edwards started about a year ago with the best organization in Iowa, and most of the foundation he built here is still in place.  Although concerns persist that his sharpening rhetoric may be alienating a few of his earliest supporters, his solid performance at the Jefferson Jackson dinner, his endorsement from Caucus 4 Priorities (and the potential 10,000 caucus-goers it could bring him), and his ongoing commitment to retail politicking keep him  in the top spot -- for now.

2. Barack Obama -- Obama's organization was fairly inconsistent over the summer, with some counties getting a lot of attention and others getting barely any.  Still, his campaign's ability to build crowds --  as evidenced by his huge and geographically diverse group of  supporters at the Jefferson Jackson dinner -- are as good a measure of his strength as anything.  And as Clinton continues to receive sharper attacks from Edwards and subtler attacks from Obama himself, the Illinois Senator could move up in the coming weeks -- particularly on news of his United Auto Workers endorsement.  As things stand  now, he would still place second behind Edwards.

3. Hillary Clinton -- Different sources tell vastly different stories  about the Clinton campaign in Iowa.  Some expect it to flop completely, but others point to poll numbers showing Clinton in the  top spot among Democratic candidates in Iowa.  All that said, her aura  of inevitability has been all but shattered by increased criticism over the past few weeks, and she seems to lack significant second choice support.  And her latest swing through Iowa highlighted her energy policy, something which may not resonate among working class women, which continues to be her key demographic.  Frankly, although the polls show Clinton in first place in Iowa, many of us have been hard pressed to find solid Clinton supporters whose names have not already appeared on a campaign press release.

And, showing how Iowa is different than the nation, on immigration, Obama and Richardson are beating Hillary. Obama made it sound like he supported drivers' licenses for the undocumented at the debate weeks ago (but waffled at the last one) and Richardson said he had done that.  

This strategy is a disaster.  I don't know if he can make up ground at this point.

The only ray of hope for him in these numbers is that, among those who have attended a caucus before, Obama is at 27 and Edwards is at 26 (Clinton is at 21).    

Most important number:

Who do you trust most to handle the situation in Iraq (previous poll # in parentheses)

Obama:  26 (17) +9
Clinton:  23 (29) minus 6

She lost 15 points to him on the Iraq question.

Also:

The Center for an Independent Media's Iowa website is calling it for Edwards, Obama and Clinton, in that order. This gibes much more closely with what people on the ground in Iowa are saying.

My results were exactly correct. The elderly Republicans had already moved on to coffee and cake by the time the caucus was officially supposed to start. They knew everyone who'd be in attendance, and who they supported. And they were exactly correct. Nothing under the table, just neighbors who really do know their neighbors.

This long election cycle is working in his favor, and if he wins Iowa, then this may become one of the most interesting and hotly contested campaigns for the Democratic nomination in history.  And that will be good for America.

A few weeks ago it looked like Obama had to win Iowa in order to keep his campaign alive, now it looks like Hillary needs to win Iowa, in order to shut down the Obama train, which is only going to pick up momentum over the coming year.

Things keep going like this and it may be Barack who offers the the vice presidents seat to Hillary.  :-)

I'll be going back to Iowa to work for my candidate, I would advise you Clinton supporters to sacrifice some of your leisure time and do the same, that is what America needs in this election, for her people to get involved and make some sacrifices.  

And may the best candidate win, the candidate chosen by the American people, the candidate who stands in representation of the American people, the candidate who hasn't forgotten who turns the wheels that keep this country moving, the candidate who remembers to show respect for the people's sovereignty, may that candidate be fortunate enough to earn the privilege of representing us.