The Start of the Story: Indiana and Kentucky

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2006
Posted on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 05:36:00 PM EST
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Bumped - These results will start to roll in the next few minures.

I'll steal this from TNR on Indiana, where polls close at 6:00 p.m., or 2+ hours from now:

IN-8, John Hostettler ® vs. Brad Ellsworth (D): Incumbent Hostettler has been doomed by double-digits most of the season, so if he manages a low-single-digit loss (or, unbelievably, a win), that bodes ill.
IN-2, Chris Chocola ® vs. Joe Donnelly (D): Incumbent Chocola is a poster boy for the more policy-oriented sins of his party, being a loyal Republican whoÃ‚'s supported tax cuts and big oil and so on; his district is relatively conservative. He's lagged slightly in the polls, but if he loses big, that may be a harbinger of an anti-Republican sweep.
IN-9, Michael Sodrel ® vs. Baron Hill (D): Sodrel has polled the closest to his challenger of these three endangered Republican incumbents, and this is the real bellwether race in Indiana. If he pulls off a comfortable win, scale back your optimism for other toss-ups.
IN-3, Mark Souder ® vs. Tom Hayhurst (D): Nobody really thinks Souder will lose, so if he topples, that looks real real good.

I'll see where I can steal some Kentucky info from, polls close at 6 there too.

UPDATE From commenter Tilthouse:

KY-02: This is the last minute long shot. If we win here, the wave is VERY big and we are taking the Senate too.
KY-04: This one has been on the radar for a long time. Rematch between Davis ® and former Congressman Lucas (D), who is well liked (and VERY conservative -- well, it's a VERY conservative district). The PVI is R+11 (!). The polls have gone back and forth but mostly have the R ahead recently.

KY-03: A perennial race to watch, since this district is notionally Democratic. But incumbent Anne Northrup ® has a reputation for being a good politician and has does her contituency work well. However, challenger Yarmuth (D) is polling ahead now in tight single digits.
My analysis of KY-04 & KY-03 is that the conventional wisdom (that KY-04 is more vulnerable than KY-03) is wrong. If we win both, we have a solid wave (30+ seats). If we win one, it's still looking good. If we get KY-03 but not KY-04, the races were successfully nationalized. If we get KY-04, the pundits are basically on target.

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The Start of the Story: Indiana and Kentucky | 6 comments (6 topical)

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Does Bush want a House loss? (none / 0) (#1)
by LonewackoDotCom on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 02:50:47 PM EST

Other than Iraq, the only thing Bush really cares about is making sure that his backers have as much cheap foreign labor as they can handle. A Hostettler loss would actually help Bush get what he wants. While Ellsworth has made noises that have probably deceived many voters, he actually supports the same plan as Bush.

Here's Kaus saying something similar, and here's my voting guide.

Kentucky races (none / 0) (#2)
by tilthouse on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 03:11:57 PM EST

KY-02: This is the last minute long shot. If we win here, the wave is VERY big and we are taking the Senate too.

KY-04: This one has been on the radar for a long time. Rematch between Davis (R) and former Congressman Lucas (D), who is well liked (and VERY conservative -- well, it's a VERY conservative district). The PVI is R+11 (!). The polls have gone back and forth but mostly have the R ahead recently.

KY-03: A perennial race to watch, since this district is notionally Democratic. But incumbent Anne Northrup (R) has a reputation for being a good politician and has does her contituency work well. However, challenger Yarmuth (D) is polling ahead now in tight single digits.

My analysis of KY-04 & KY-03 is that the conventional wisdom (that KY-04 is more vulnerable than KY-03) is wrong. If we win both, we have a solid wave (30+ seats). If we win one, it's still looking good. If we get KY-03 but not KY-04, the races were successfully nationalized. If we get KY-04, the pundits are basically on target.

Thanks (none / 0) (#3)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 03:17:38 PM EST

I;m gonna steal your coment. Cool?


: No worries (none / 0) (#4)
by tilthouse on Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 03:26:47 PM EST

...please do.
I should add that I think we will capture the Senate (probably) if we take either KY-03 or KY-04. Most pundits have called those tossups, but then when forced to predict each race have the Reps holding them.
If we took KY-02 (very unlikely), then places like AZ-Sen are in play.
(I live in San Diego now, but grew up and went to university in Kentucky, FWIW...)